Saturday, 11 January 2025

Week 492 Review - 2025 reverts to norm and wipes out twice last week's gains.

I was wondering how long last week's good run would last in 2025. Turned out it was a week, as all last weeks gains were wiped out this week, in fact my portfolio dropped almost twice as much as it went up last week. The deficit between cost and value grew by £5,885 to £129,284 and between injection amount and value to £57,273. Total portfolio value dropped to £107,740.

Worst performer was IPX:Impax Asset Management, which gave an update on assets under management which dropped by 8% due to one of the St James's Place funds closing. They will drop by even more when the bigger one closes. However, that knowledge was already in the price, so I don't understand why it dropped another 15%. My holding is now 53% down, which for a magic formula share is dreadful.

FXPO:Ferrexpo dropped 12% as it swings wildly up and down. At least I no longer have a trading account to be tempted by.

ASHM:Ashmore Group and FDM:FDM Group both dropped 10% for no discernible reason.

AJB:AJ Bell, PAGE:Pagegroup and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics all dropped 9%, again for no obvious reason.

OPTI:Optibiotix and TRY:TR Property Investment both dropped 8%.

TLOU:Tlou Energy dropped 7%.

JLP:Jubilee Metals, POLR:Polar Capital, PSN:Persimmon and UKW:Greencoat UK Wind dropped 6%

CWR:Ceres Power dropped 5%.

Happy 2025!!

The only holding that went up over 5% was SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy, which I'm reluctant to award Share of the Week, but I think I have to as it went up 18% and is now only 75% down so I can change its colour from red to crimson. I still don't hold out much hope for getting back to profit though.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 24 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash £68.54 -£104.98
Portfolio cost £114,352.47 +£104.98
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£44,166.43 (-61.4%) -£3,082.00
Potential profits £0 +£0
Yr 10 Dividends £109.18 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £0.78             +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales £327.55 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £70.79 (1.0%) -£3.08
Total Dividends £12,417.13 +£0
Total Interest £7.58 +£0.31
Total Profit from sales £17,602.85 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £259.95 (3.7%) -£0.53
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 35% -1%

I incorporated the trading account into this one before re-setting the numbers for week 24, so although figures have changed to take account of the trading account, none of those changes are in the weekly differences.

Cash went down and cost went up by £104 as I used the cash from the trading account and any that was lying in the account to buy 2,989 shares of JLP:Jubilee Metals at 3.345p costing £104.98. I had to find some way to get more at this stupid price, as it will go up when the institutions stop selling.


Not the lowest point but getting there.


Back below the trend line. Great!

I'd like to introduce a new chart - the average monthly profit chart


I haven't really sold anything for a year in the ISA so it's slowly drifting downwards.

The SIPP looks like this after week 476 overall and week 8 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£118.85
-£365.21
Portfolio cost£122,484.42
+£446.58
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£63,386.20(-48.2%)-£2,803.48
Potential profits£3,549.80
-£37.87
Yr 10 Dividends£292.94
+£81.37
Yr 10 Interest£1.08
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£1,906.90
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£1.191.09(17.6%)-£96.92
Total Dividends£16,409.59
+£81.37
Total Interest£13.98
+£0
Total Profit from sales£18,914.84
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£308.78(4.6%)+£0.09
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+0%

I got loads of dividends this week, totaling £81. £21 from TRY:TR Property Investment, £31 from POLR:Polar Capital, £18 from III:3i Group and £9 from GSK:GSK. Tragically it's a while before I get any more.

My regular monthly investment happened as I took my first position in BHP:BHP Group, buying 12 shares at 2000.673p costing £241.58.

As with the ISA, I used all spare cash and dividends to buy 5,979 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 3.345p costing £205.

Given it was such a dreadful week, it was nice to see potential profits only dropping by £37, and there were enough dividends to push long term performance up by 9p a month.


Ah well, it was nice to dream for a week.


Back below the trend line here too.


This is much more encouraging, as I've sold a reasonable amount for profit and had lots of dividends, so over the last 12 months the average profit has gone up by about £10 a month. Not too bad considering it's based on a 9-year average.

It's nice to remind myself that over an almost 10 year period I've been making around £550 a month from sales and dividends. It's just a shame that's been wiped out by the drop in portfolio value.

Let's see if things get even worse next week. Surely the JLP:Jubilee Metals seller have to run out soon? Given the strange state of affairs with JLP, when my pension transfer comes through I'll be putting all £2,000 in JLP with the aim of doubling it when the selling stops so I can get more magic formula shares. It will mean my SIPP will have JLP costing £12,000, all of which I plan to sell so I'm left with my ISA holding that cost £21,000. I'll still sell the ones that were originally in my trading account though.

Sunday, 5 January 2025

Week 491 Review - A good start to 2025.

A good start to 2025, with more shares gaining than losing. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by £3,916 to £123,415 and deficit between injection amount and value reduced to £51,488. Total portfolio value increased to £113,524.

Worst performer was FXPO:Ferrexpo which dropped 7%. This is moving wildly every week.

IHP:Integrafin dropped 5% which is handy because I want to buy some more when my pension transfer comes through. Given results were good, I don't understand the recent fall.

JLP:Jubilee Metals is an absolute nightmare, with several large institutional investors offloading millions of shares. They are all being mopped up, but it means the fall in price is relentless and I have a whole load bought at what I considered bargain prices that I really need to sell. Fortunately I did sell the ones where I borrowed the money to buy them by selling CAML:Central Asia Metals and made a profit on them as well as buying back CAML at a lower price, but the 5% drop in JLP this week takes it to the lowest price for over a year.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining went up 5% this week but is still 17% down.

AFC:AFC Energy has had 2 good weeks in a row and went up 6% this week, but is still 44% down.

CORE:Solidcore Resources climbed 9% but is still 84% down and I can't sell them until they re-list in the UK.

OPTI:Optibiotix went up 9% which was a significant contribution to this week's gains.

TLOU:Tlou Energy rose 15% but only because they de-listed from AIM and I'm now calculating the share price by converting Australian dollars.

Share of the Week is PBX:Probiotix Health, which went up 18% and will hopefully keep going, but I won't hold my breath is it's still 68% down.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 23 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash £102.64 -£3.44
Portfolio cost £112,093.83 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£46,103.21 (-58.9%) +£1,870.71
Potential profits £0 +£0
Yr 10 Dividends £109.18 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £0.75             +£0.31
Yr 10 Profit from sales £243.66 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £58.06 (0.8%) -£3.32
Total Dividends £12,331.67 +£0
Total Interest £7.55 +£0.31
Total Profit from sales £18,121.50 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £264.30 (3.8%) -£0.57
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 36% +0%

Cash down by monthly fees minus a small amount of interest, and good £1,870 increase in value. Potential profits are still zero.


Hope this week isn't a blip.


Above the trend line, which is the main objective. It's staying there that's proving tricky.

The SIPP looks like this after week 475 overall and week 7 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash £484.06
+£296.75
Portfolio cost £122,037.84
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£65,743.10 (-46.1%) +£2,096.66
Potential profits £3,587.67
+£137.58
Yr 10 Dividends £211.57
+£0
Yr 10 Interest £1.08
+£0.91
Yr 10 Profit from sales £1,906.90
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £1.288.01 (19.4%) -£226.05
Total Dividends £16,328.22
+£0
Total Interest £13.98
+£0.91
Total Profit from sales £18,914.84
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £308.69 (4.6%) -£0.79
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 42% +0%

Cash went up thanks to injecting £250 monthly savings which will be spent on BHP:BHP Group next week, which is at a 3-year low but near the top of my magic formula ranking. I also got a tax rebate but had to take off monthly fees. Potential profits went up £137 thanks to small increases in most of my profitable shares.


I wish I could at least get back past the injection line.


Just about touching the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 441 overall and week 25 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash £70.88
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,150.27
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,020.34 (-52.5%) -£50.51
Potential profits £0    
+£0
Year 9 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 9 Interest £0
+£0
Year 9 Profit £83.88
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit £14.54 (+8.1%) -£0.61
Dividends £85.46
+£0
Interest £0.03
+£0
Profit from sales -£518.66
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£4.26 (-2.4%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

The only tradable share in this account is now JLP:Jubilee Metals, which dropped again and the account is now 52% down. The whole thing has been a disaster, and I couldn't really be bothered with it any more. I'm a rubbish trader and I'm not using this account the way it should be, mainly because I just can't do it.

With that in mind, I'm giving it up. 

It's cost me £4 a month to learn I can't do it.

I'll figure out a way to move the shares into my main share and ISA accounts and also all the previous transactions. I don't know what impact it will have on my ISA spreadsheet, as I ought to incorporate the performance, but need to do it without messing up the year 10 figures. I'll look for any trades that fall within year 10 and include them, but just put the rest into the long term figures. It will reduce my performance by £518, but also add a load of JLP:Jubilee Metals shares which will hopefully be sold sometime soon.


Here's the final sorry tale of failure.


Absolutely rubbish!

At least writing this will be quicker with one less set of charts to cover.

Saturday, 28 December 2024

Week 490 Review - The year ends with yet another drop.

There were as many shares up as there were down this week, but small drops in my larger holdings resulted in the deficit between cost and value widening by £1,405 to £127,332 and deficit between injection amount and value increased to £55,449. Portfolio value dropped to £109,314.

No shares dropped by 5% or more this week, in contrast to the carnage of the week before.

FXPO:Ferrexpo climbed 9%, but I'll mention that first as they are still 76% down and so it was a much smaller increase when compared to my purchase price.

AFC:AFC Energy and CWR:Ceres Power have been moving in the same direction recently - mostly down. This week they were both up by 5%, and I'm hopeful both will stage a recovery in t he new year.

Share of the Week ATYM:Atalaya Mining also rose 5% this week, but I decided to give it the award as  I think it's a good company, and have decided when I sell up my SIPP JLP:Jubilee Metals shares, I'll buy some more of these with the proceeds.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 22 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£106.08+£11.64
Portfolio cost£112,093.83+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£44,232.50(-60.5%)-£815.00
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£109.18+£11.64
Yr 10 Interest£0.44            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£243.66+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£61.38(0.9%)-£0.52
Total Dividends£12,331.67+£11.64
Total Interest£7.24+£0
Total Profit from sales£18,121.50+£0
Average monthly cash profit£264.87(3.8%)-£0.44
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance36%+0%

I got an £11 dividend from WHR:Warehouse REIT which means I've had a 9% return in dividends since buying them. Unfortunately they are 30% down, but I'm in for the long haul.

Portfolio value dropped £815 thanks to small losses in large holdings.


Thankfully still above the £40k line.


Following the trend line rather annoyingly closely.

The SIPP looks like this after week 474 overall and week 6 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£187.31
+£31.25
Portfolio cost£122,037.84
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£63,646.44(-47.8%)-£565.52
Potential profits£3,450.09
-£2.37
Yr 10 Dividends£211.57
+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.17
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£1,906.90
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£1.514.06(22.8%)-£302.81
Total Dividends£16,328.22
+£0
Total Interest£13.07
+£0
Total Profit from sales£18,914.84
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£309.48(4.7%)-£0.66
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance43%+0%

Portfolio value dropped by £565 for the same reason as the ISA, but potential profits only down by £2. Cash went up by £31 thanks to a tax rebate. Not much else happened.


Bad!


Below trend line and dragging it steeper downwards.

The trading account looks like this after week 440 overall and week 24 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£70.88
+£0
Portfolio cost£2,150.27
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,070.85(-50.2%)-£25.26
Potential profits£0    
+£0
Year 9 Dividends£0
+£0
Year 9 Interest£0
+£0
Year 9 Profit£83.88
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£15.15(+8.5%)-£0.65
Dividends£85.46
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£518.66
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£4.27(-2.4%)+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped by 3% which cost £25. I really hope it turns around in the new year.


The green line appears to be at a 12-month low.


Yep - no doubt it's pretty terrible.

2024 has bee a bit of a rubbish year, which is difficult to take as it promised so much. All I can hope is that the things that were meant to happen in 2024 and didn't, happen in 2025 instead.

In theory it should be the case - OPTI:Optibiotix are waiting to announce the first SweetBiotix contract, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics have Croda launching their product in April, PBX:Probiotix have assured us of big revenues coming soon, and JLP:Jubilee Metails should ramp up copper production and demonstrate massive cash generation. If those things happen then my portfolio should rocket, as they are all my biggest holdings.

So looking back at how things did in 2024, my deficit between cost and value went from £91,339 a year ago to £127,332, so I've lost around £36,000. I've added around £13k to the cost of my ISA, of which £12k was injecting new cash, and £18k to my SIPP, of which only £11k was injecting new cash and around £3k was tax rebates. The other £4k was re-investing profits.

I did implement my new SIPP strategy part way through the year, and that still needs another year to bed in, as I sell non-dividend shares and re-invest in magic formula shares, assuming those loss-making shares ever turn around. I do need to retain better discipline though, as I've been selling dividend-paying shares to buy JLP:Jubilee Metals as a short-term punt, and that's completely the reverse of what I'm meant to be doing in this account. It really has to stop!

Saturday, 21 December 2024

Week 489 Review - Bah humbug as the whole portfolio crashes in a heap.

An absolute Christmas disaster, with the whole portfolio plummeting. Only 2 holdings finished up on the week, and they were only by 1%, but the list of massive drops is going to take up most of the blog. The deficit between cost and value widened by £14,529 to £125,926 and the deficit between injection amount and value went up to £54,085. Total portfolio value dropped to £110,676.

The worst performer was last week's Share of the Week and my biggest holding OPTI:Optibiotix, which dropped 17% and lost two thirds of last week's gains. That only accounted for about half the overall losses though.

The 2nd worst performer was my 2nd biggest holding JLP:Jubilee Metals, which fell 16% after an RNS stated power grid issues in Zambia mean they may not meet their forecast production at the Roan concentrator. However, given this time last year production there was zero and the share price was higher, I can't understand why the massive drop. That's why I bought a load more!

The 3rd worst performer is my 3rd biggest holding SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, which fell 11% for no real reason other than profit taking after a recent rise. Can you see a pattern forming here? Merry bloody Christmas!

The only other double-digit loser was AFC:AFC Energy, which I thought was on the way back up, but which fell 10% this week to go 50% down.

Next worst performer was IHP:Integrafin, which produced what I thought were very solid results, but which dropped 9%. I have a pension transfer coming through in a few weeks, and I will be buying more of these.

Three shares fell by 8%, none of which had any particular reason for doing so. ATYM:Atalaya MiningCMCL:Caledonia Mining and PBX:Probiotix Health.

GAW:Games Workshop, PAF:Pan African Resources, PAGE:Pagegroup and TLOU:Tlou Energy all fell 7%.

AAL:Anglo American Mining and ALU:Alumasc Group both fell 5%.

As I said in the intro, the only 2 shares that went up were APAX:Apax Global Alpha and IGG:IG Group, and being slightly less shit than the rest of the portfolio isn't enough to earn Share of the Week!

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 21 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£94.44+£0.04
Portfolio cost£112,093.83+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£45,047.50(-59.8%)-£7,394.31
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£97.54+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.44            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£243.66+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£61.90(0.9%)-£3.08
Total Dividends£12,320.03+£0
Total Interest£7.24+£0
Total Profit from sales£18,121.50+£0
Average monthly cash profit£265.31(3.9%)-£0.54
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance36%+0%

Very little happened other than the massive £7,394 drop in value which wiped out all last week's gains plus a load more.


The only good news is that it didn't drop all the way to the recent lows. Maybe that's next week...


By some miracle it's touching the trend line rather than below it, but we are definitely following it down.

The SIPP looks like this after week 473 overall and week 5 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£156.06
-£0.54
Portfolio cost£122,037.84
+£335.48
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£64,211.96(-47.4%)-£6,930.14
Potential profits£3,452.46
-£910.28
Yr 10 Dividends£211.57
+£24.96
Yr 10 Interest£0.17
+£0.17
Yr 10 Profit from sales£1,906.90
+£309.82
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£1.816.87(27.4%)-£91.36
Total Dividends£16,328.22
+£24.96
Total Interest£13.07
+£0.17
Total Profit from sales£18,914.84
+£309.82
Average monthly cash profit£310.14(4.7%)+£2.42
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance43%+1%

It's not often I get to fill in every single bit of the table.

I had a £24 dividend from SCT:Softcat, and 17p interest. 

When JLP:Jubilee Metals plummeted I decided to buy some more, so I sold 3,000 of my PAF:Pan African Resources shares at 36.2094p making £309 (39.9%) profit. I used the proceeds to buy 27,476 JLP shares at 3.96p costing £1,100. I'm hoping to sell those for 100% profit, buy back the PAF shares, and buy another £1,000 of CAML:Central Asia Metals. Unfortunately all the times I've tried this in the past have resulted in JLP falling even further, leaving me with 5 separate holdings in my SIPP, all of which were meant to be short term! Maybe this time...

Potential profits fell by £910 thanks to just about everything tanking. Year 10 performance is looking great after selling so much in the first few weeks, and long term performance improved by just 0.1%. It would be nice to get that back above 5%, which a rally in JLP:Jubilee Metals would easily achieve.


It was getting so close to the injection line - very sad.


Unfortunately this one has crossed the trend line and is now pulling it steeper downwards.

The trading account looks like this after week 439 overall and week 23 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£70.88
+£7.49
Portfolio cost£2,150.27
+£76.40
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,096.11(-49.0%)-£204.97
Potential profits£0    
-£76.88
Year 9 Dividends£0
+£0
Year 9 Interest£0
+£0
Year 9 Profit£83.88
+£83.88
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£15.80(+8.8%)+£15.80
Dividends£85.46
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£518.66
+£83.88
Average monthly cash profit-£4.28(-2.4%)+£0.84
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

Something actually happened! When the JLP:Jubilee Metals share price collapsed for no good reason, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics was still high, so I sold my 2003 shares for 18.85p making £83.89 (29.4%) profit. Although that was well below my target of 23p, they subsequently dropped to 16.5p to it turned out to be a good move.

I bought 9,306 JLP shares at 3.72p costing £358.13. They are down by 5% due to spread and commission, but the bid price ended up 2% up on what I paid for them, so although the JLP price dropped over the week, these have done ok. It does mean my entire trading account is invested in JLP, so rather a lot is relying on that coming good. I do still hold TALY:Tally, but lets face it, that's never going to re-list and at some point I'll have to write them off. Probably the day after I get the account back into profit!


Cost price is up but value steeply down.


Well that's deeply depressing.

It looked like we might have been getting a Santa rally, as things were looking better than they had for much of 2024, but this week has put us right back where we started. It's very frustrating that the American share prices recovered on Friday after UK had closed. Does that mean we'll get some recovery next week? I very much doubt it.

Sunday, 15 December 2024

Week 488 Review - Optibiotix flies in a rubbish week just about everywhere else.

It was a rubbish week across most of my portfolio, but OPTI:Optibiotix saved the day with a big rise, meaning the deficit between cost and value narrowed by an impressive £7,389 to £111,396 and the deficit between injection amount and value reduced to £39,975. Total portfolio value went up to £124,787. The deficit would have reduced even further, but I cashed in £1,500 of profits so I could buy some new magic formula shares before their ex-dividend date.

The worst performer was IPX:Impax Asset Management which plummeted 25% after St James's Place announced they were taking one of their funds back off IPX. All a bit of a disaster given this was one of the top ranked shares in my magic formula spreadsheet, so I'd bought some more. They are now down by 45% and looking a pretty terrible investment. I guess they are a long term holding and still pay a decent dividend, so I'll hope there's a recovery in share price.

FXPO:Ferrexpo have been zooming up lately, but dropped 12% this week to go 78% down. I suspect they'll drift further after the recent spike.

TLOU:Tlou Energy fell 7% as they continue to drift downwards and remove all chance of me selling before they leave AIM at the end of the month.

ASHM:Ashmore Group dropped 6% for no particular reason.

CAML:Central Asia Metals had been recovering recently, but fell 5% this week despite other copper producers increasing. Typical this came a few weeks after me buying back lots of shares.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics have been making optimistic noises recently, and seem to have some momentum behind them in advance of Croda launching their new ingredient in April. They went up 14% this week to 18.5p. My trading account target is 23.5p which is looking within reach.

Share of the Week is OPTI:Optibiotix which shot up an amazing 27% on absolutely no news whatsoever. It seems good news causes the price to drop, but no news allows it to rise. My AJ Bell ISA holding is on the verge of going back into profit, but my SIPP holding that I want to sell is still 35% down, so I need 21p to become 33p just to break even, and I have other shares at 60p break even.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 20 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£94.40+£91.75
Portfolio cost£112,093.83+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£52,551.81(-53.2%)+£5,134.87
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£97.54+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.44            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£243.66+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£64.98(0.9%)-£5.31
Total Dividends£12,320.03+£0
Total Interest£7.24+£0
Total Profit from sales£18,121.50+£0
Average monthly cash profit£265.85(3.9%)-£0.62
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance36%+0%

I added £100 to my ISA because I'd cocked up and spent my trading account cash last week. It's a problem that my trading account is split between my HL ISA, AJ Bell ISA and AJ Bell dealing account. I need to move it all into my AJ Bell ISA somehow. Keeping track of where the cash is meant to be is a pain.


Very nice indeed, but still a hell of a long way from the injection line.


Well above the trend line. Could we start pulling it back level?

The SIPP looks like this after week 472 overall and week 4 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£156.60
-£273.25
Portfolio cost£121,702.36
+£1,980.54
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£70,806.62(-41.8%)+£2,225.40
Potential profits£4,362.74
-£1,691.25
Yr 10 Dividends£186.61
+£140.90
Yr 10 Interest£0
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£1,597.08
+£1,597.08
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£1.908.23(28.8%)+£1,846.11
Total Dividends£16,303.26
+£140.90
Total Interest£12.90
+£0
Total Profit from sales£18,605.02
+£1,597.08
Average monthly cash profit£307.72(4.6%)+£15.16
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+2%

This account was very busy. I received a wonderful £140 from PAF:Pan African Resources, and cashed in £1,597 profits so potential profits dropped by that plus a little more and the increase in portfolio value was much less than the ISA at £2,225 for the same reason.

My first sale was 25% of my holding in IGG:IG Group because I wanted to get my holding in POLR:Polar Capital above £1,000 before dividend ex-date. I sold 62 IGG shares at 962.951p and made £64.86 (14.3%) profit. That enabled me to buy 130 POLR shares at 540.86p costing £715.07.

Next I decided to sell half of my PAF:Pan African Resources shares from my AJ Bell SIPP because they were up by over 100% and I've had the dividend, meanwhile CMCL:Caledonia Mining have dropped for no good reason and pay a quarterly dividend, so now seemed like a good time to swap some over. I sold 3,200 PAF shares at 37.0435p making £633.17 (114.6%) profit. I bought 116 CMCL shares at 860p costing £1,009.55.

Next I sold half of my holding in III:3i Group, another which is up by over 100%. I wanted to buy TRY:TR Property Investment, again before dividend ex-date. I sold 30 shares in III making £584.33 (118.5%) profit. I bought 383 shares in TRY at 315p costing £1,217.48.

My final sale was a small amount of my larger HL PAF:Pan African Resources holding to allow me to buy FDM:FDM Group, another top magic formula share that's had a bit of a slump recently but may be staging a small recovery. I sold 2,800 PAF shares at 37.179p making £314.72 (41.9%) profit, and bought 343 FDM shares at 319.8398p costing £1,107.54.

Finally there was my monthly investment in FOUR:4imprint where I bought 4 shares at 5057.137p costing £204.80. That completes all my buying of FOUR, and from next month I'll start buying BHP:BHP Group instead.

The profits sent performance for Year 10 of the scale but only increased long term profits by £15 a month, with average return still less than half my target of 10% at 4.6%.


I do believe we're getting very close to the injection line.


Still not far above the trend line, but great to be on the right side of it.

The trading account looks like this after week 438 overall and week 22 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£63.39
+£0
Portfolio cost£2,073.87
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,224.68(-40.9%)+£29.12
Potential profits£76.88    
+£45.07
Year 9 Dividends£0
+£0
Year 9 Interest£0
+£0
Year 9 Profit£0
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£0(+0%)+£0
Dividends£85.46
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£602.54
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£5.12(-3.0%)+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped 0.1p but SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics had a great week and increased potential profits by £45 to £76, but I'm holding out for £177. It may even happen before Christmas!


Not really much movement.


Almost touching the trend line. The success of this account is almost entirely dependent on JLP:Jubilee Metals having a massive re-rate, but the institutional seller has been holding the price back for months. One day they will finish selling, after which there should be a snowball effect over this account and a massive one on my SIPP where I intend to sell the lot.

I don't think what's happening now can count as a Santa rally because nearly all my holdings lost money this week. I'm hoping for something much nicer next week - but need OPTI:Optibiotix to hold firm and not slide back down again.

Friday, 13 December 2024

Week 487 Review - Nearly a great week but all went horribly wrong on Friday.

A pretty flat week which was looking great on Thursday night, with a £6,000 increase from last week, but Friday was horrible and the deficit between cost and value ended up higher by £798 at £118,796, and deficit between injection amount and value increased to £49,074. Total portfolio value is actually higher at £115,589, but that's due to injecting more cash.

All the big losers fell 6% this week, with AFC:AFC Energy going 44% down, OPTI:Optibiotix giving up some of last week's gains and SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy dropping to 79% down.

PAF:Pan African Resources continues to perform brilliantly and went up 8%, with my first holding now up by 116%.

PBX:Probiotix Health went up a healthy 20% but is still 71% down.

Share of the Week is FXPO:Ferrexpo which went up a magnificent 48% and is now only 75% down. I suspect it will never get back to break even, but if the war ends and they get back to paying a dividend, then it's a good long-term hold. There's still a chance the whole thing will get wiped out by the Russians though.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 19 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£2.65-£95.95
Portfolio cost£112,093.83+£539.99
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£47,306.94(-57.8%)-£863.85
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£97.54+£44.04
Yr 10 Interest£0.44            +£0.04
Yr 10 Profit from sales£243.66+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£70.29(1.0%)+£6.70
Total Dividends£12,320.03+£44.04
Total Interest£7.24+£0.04
Total Profit from sales£18,121.50+£0
Average monthly cash profit£266.47(3.9%)-£0.16
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance36%+0%

I had a £44 dividend from ASHM:Ashmore Group so injected a bit more cash and bought 11,590 more shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 4.616p costing £539.99. That takes my AJ Bell ISA holding to 270,951 shares at an average 6.28p costing £17,115, so still down 29% but the average price has come down. My total ISA holding is 314,953 shares which I plan to hold long term. I also have 38,080 in my AJ Bell dealing account which I plan to sell for a small profit and use the cash to buy a new telescope, but they are at around 11p so I may have a bit of a wait. I also have 136,295 in my SIPP, all of which will be sold as soon as possible and used for magic formula shares.

Value dropped by £863 thanks to most of my bigger holding losing money.


Not too bad a drop


Still above the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 471 overall and week 3 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£429.85
+£160.90
Portfolio cost£119,721.82
+£500.51
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£66,600.68(-44.4%)+£80.70
Potential profits£6,053.99
+£463.42
Yr 10 Dividends£45.71
+£11.41
Yr 10 Interest£0
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£0
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£62.12(0.9%)-£6.34
Total Dividends£16,162.36
+£11.41
Total Interest£12.90
+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,007.94
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£292.56(4.4%)-£0.52
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

The £11 dividend was from CMCL:Caledonia Mining. I injected a bit of cash and bought 92 shares in POLR:Polar Capital at 538.6p costing £500.51 as their dividend date is coming up soon and I want to get back into them.

Portfolio value actually increased by £80 thanks to gains in many of my magic formula shares, and all my big gainers were in the SIPP this week. Monthly investment cash was added and will be spent next week.


Going in the right direction


Just above the tend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 437 overall and week 21 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£63.39
+£0
Portfolio cost£2,073.87
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,195.56(-42.4%)-£5.93
Potential profits£31.81    
+£10.02
Year 9 Dividends£0
+£0
Year 9 Interest£0
+£0
Year 9 Profit£0
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£0(+0%)+£0
Dividends£85.46
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£602.54
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£5.13(-3.0%)+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics went up a tiny amount, but JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped by more, so a £5 drop in value, but potential profits up by £10. I need SBTX to gain quite a bit more before I sell.


Pretty flat.


Still below the trend line and desperate for a move in JLP:Jubilee Metals.

The Santa rally stalled this week. Let's hope it gets back in track next week. The best Christmas present would by the JLP:Jubilee Metals seller finishing and the share price heading upwards, as I have an awful lot to sell, as well as a massive pot to keep long term.