Saturday, 19 July 2025

Week 519 Review - A rare positive week across most of the potfolio.

Not a bad week, but a few nightmare drops. Ended up positive, with the deficit between cost and value narrowing by £2,783 to £135,841 and deficit between injection and value reducing to £61,752. Total portfolio value increased to £113,960.

Worst performer was AFC:AFC Energy, which dropped 29% after announcing a discounted placing. Fortunately that placing was over subscribed, and there's a retail offer at 10p a share, which the buy price stayed above, so I've applied for £500 worth.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining have been doing well recently, but dropped 6% this week. They are still 2% up, but there is a risk of them dropping out of profit.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy dropped 5%, but there's nothing unusual about that.

The rest was all good news.

CAPD:Capital climbed 5% after great results. They have dropped to 66 on my magic formula rankings so I am looking to sell them. My SIPP holding is only 10% down, so I may be able to get rid of those fairly soon, but my dealing account holding is still 19% down.

IPX:Impax Asset Management have been sneaking up since to announcement of St James's Place dropping them as fund managers tanked the share price. The shares are still 54% down though. Part of me wants to buy more at this price, but part of me is nervous about other funds reducing eco-friendly investments.

OPTI:Optibiotix went up 5% which generated around £1,000 of this week's rise, but they are still at an astonishingly low price and causing most of my misery.

PAF:Pan African Resources also went up 5% which is a relief after buying a load more last week. The sell price is now well above the price I paid for them, and my holding is showing potential profit of £2,876 (74%). I will be hanging on to them though, as there's the prospect of a significant increase in production and they have a stonking dividend. It does mean that all my gold interest is in this one company, but there's no other I really feel comfortable with.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha went up an impressive 8%, although these have dropped to 64 in my magic formula ranking, so if they recover the 26% they are losing, then I'll sell them.

TRX:Tissue Regenix have been utterly rubbish, but went up 8% this week. They are still 80% down and I don't hold out much hope.

PBX:Probiotix Health went up and impressive 13%, but I suspect that's about it for the foreseeable future, as although the results were good, there's no prosect of anything new happening and we're still at least 12 months away from profitability.

Share of the Week is IHP:Integrafin, which zoomed up 17% after brilliant results and went 8% into profit. They are 3rd in my magic formula rankings, and I'm really glad I bought some more before the rise.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 51 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£573.11    +£496.09
Portfolio cost£115,378.07+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£40,581.90(-64.8%)+£1,027.81
Potential profits£24.65-£19.80
Yr 10 Dividends£180.12+£0
Yr 10 Interest£1.77            +£0.32
Yr 10 Profit from sales£284.97+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£31.31(0.4%)-£0.96
Total Dividends£12,488.07+£0
Total Interest£8.57    +£0.32
Total Profit from sales£17,560.27+£0
Average monthly cash profit£246.23(3.4%)-£0.51
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance34%+0%

I added £500 to my ISA so I can partake in the retail offer for AFC:AFC Energy and get my average price down, as I'm excited about their prospects. The £1,027 rise in value is mainly thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and PBX:Probiotix Health going up a bit. There's also a tiny amount of interest. The bad news is a drop in BOKU:Boku halving my potential profits, but just having potential profits in this account is a new experience.


Can't see much on this one


We're touching the trend line, but there's no danger of it changing direction any time soon.


One day it would be nice to sell something to help this chart out.

The SIPP looks like this after week 503 overall and week 35 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£181.98
+£15.53
Portfolio cost£133,669.23
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£72,623.55(-45.7%)+£1,755.73
Potential profits£7,181.82
+£460.36
Yr 10 Dividends£1,228.56
+£18.04
Yr 10 Interest£3.96
+£0.84
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,764.16
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£474.99(6.4%)-£11.99
Total Dividends£17,345.21
+£18.04
Total Interest£16.86
+£0.84
Total Profit from sales£19,772.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£306.63(4.1%)-£0.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0

A healthy increase in value, and a healthy increase in potential profits to over £7,000. It's a novel concept not selling my profitable shares and watchin that figure gradually go up. If only my bigger holdings would sort themselves out!

There was an £18 dividend from IPX:Impax Asset Management and a tiny amount of interest.


A better looking tick upwards.


We're above the trend line, but how long will it last?


Keeping steady, and with a combination of regular dividends and a strategy in place for selling non-magic formula shares, there's more prospect of this continuing to move upwards.

It's nice to get a rare positive week after months of mainly misery. It's a tad galling that every single junior share I pick has stalled horribly. My mistake has been to pile in lots of money to just a few of them, when so many fail that I probably need a wider range so the big rises in the successful ones will cancel out the disasters.

I also need to prepare myself for writing off some quite big holdings which will ruin my performance stats. KIBO:Kibo Mining is a total basket case and will certainly go bust, costing me £2,635. The other major risk is TRX:Tissue Regenix which is likely to get bought out on the cheap. At the current price that will cost me £2,749. Those are the two I'm most worried about. The others are tiny investments or showing potential for recovery.

Saturday, 12 July 2025

Week 518 Review - A down week thanks to my big holdings but offset by a few big gains.

An amazingly flat week considering some of my biggest holdings dropped, but the rises elsewhere were big enough to limit the damage to a £490 increase in deficit between cost and value to £138,625 and increase in deficit between injection and value to £64,547. Total portfolio value increased to £110,665 thanks to a big injection from my pension transfer.

Worst performer was CAML:Central Asia Metals which dropped 11% just after I'd bought a load. They gave a production update which had lowered expected production, and at the same time they are engaged in a price war over a new mine which they are likely to either lose or damage the company spending too much. I'm starting to get the jitters as to whether I really trust them to do the right thing any more.

AFC:AFC Energy dropped 10% which is probably profit taking after the last 2 weeks of massive rises.

BLU:Blue Star Capital continue to drop, and this week went down another 10%, but they are only 89% down so I still have to mention it. Hopefully they'll pass 90% down next week and I can stop writing about them.

TRX:Tissue Regenix continue their slide towards nothing. They fell 7% and are now 81% down.

CWR:Ceres Power had a great week last week, but as with AFC they dropped 6% this week probably due to profit taking.

JLP:Jubilee Metals continues the incredibly frustrating slide downwards, falling another 6% this week with no signs of respite. It's now back down around the level they were when they had no cash and were making no profit. I never thought we'd see these prices again.

OPTI:Optibiotix fell another 5% and I fell deeper into despair. I may never get my money back from this shambles.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy went up 5% but it appeared to be just the bid price that went up. They are still 75% down and I suspect still doomed.

ASHM:Ashmore Group have been steadily sneaking up, with another 6% rise this week, but they are still 40% down.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining went up 7% and are now 9% in profit.

TLOU:Tlou Energy zoomed up last week and went up another 9% this week. They are now only 12% down.

IES:Invinity Energy announced a deal to licence their batteries in China and went up 15% as a result, but they are still 84% down so I suspect I'll never get to break-even.

Share of the Week is PBX:Probiotix Health which unexpectedly zoomed up 33% on Friday. There's a trading update next week so maybe it's in anticipation of that, so it could be short lived as the sell on news brigade come out. My free shares are still 61% down on the price when I got them.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 50 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash £77.02     +£0
Portfolio cost £115,378.07 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£39,554.09 (-65.7%) -£449.94
Potential profits £44.45 +£29.70
Yr 10 Dividends £180.12 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £1.45             +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales £284.97 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £32.27 (0.4%) -£0.66
Total Dividends £12,488.07 +£0
Total Interest £8.25     +£0
Total Profit from sales £17,560.27 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £246.74 (3.4%) -£0.47
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 34% +0%

A drop of just £449 is pretty good considering the falls in OPTI:Optibiotix and  JLP:Jubilee Metals. BOKU:Boku went up another 3% this week, so my potential profits went up by £29.


Looks pretty flat


It's not pretty flat - it's just following the trend line


The SIPP looks like this after week 502 overall and week 34 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£166.45
-£245.69
Portfolio cost£133,669.23
+£2,672.30
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£70,867.82(-47.0%)-£40.68
Potential profits£6,721.46
+£497.19
Yr 10 Dividends£1,210.52
+£38.40
Yr 10 Interest£3.12
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,764.16
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£486.98(6.6%)-£9.72
Total Dividends£17,327.17
+£38.40
Total Interest£16.02
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,772.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£307.11(4.1%)-£0.28
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%-1

I decided to split my £2,500 between one new company and two I already own.

The new company is N91:Ninety One which is 15th on my magic formula ranking. I'd been holding off because they were dropping in price. They have had a recent rise, but still only a P/E ratio of 7.6. I bought 540 shares at 188.67p costing £1,035.86. They dropped a few pence so are 4% down with spread and commission.

Next I topped up on CAML:Central Asia Metals, which was a big mistake as they tanked the day after. How do I manage to keep doing this? I bought 431 shares at 161.9149p costing £709.80 and they dropped to 146.2p the day after. My SIPP holding is now 4,767 shares costing £8,118 and I am losing £1,165.

Finally I topped up my holding in PAF:Pan African Resources. I was reluctant after their recent big rise, but looking at potential future production increases, I'm hoping they have further to go, and I'm still well in profit overall. I bought 1,574 shares at 50.813p costing £815.75. They almost immediately dropped back to 48p, but fortunately by Friday had climbed to 50.7p to sell, so about where they were when I bought them. My holding is now 12,712 shares costing £3,886 and they are making £2,546 (66%) potential profit. I may get some more in the future to increase my cost to around £5,000.

My monthly savings went through, buying 6 shares in FOUR:4imprint at 3667.8835p costing £222.67. That takes my holding to 33 shares costing £1,541 and they are losing £321 (21%), but the share price is creeping up and every time I buy I average down a bit more.

The portfolio sell value only dropped £40 and potential profits increased by £497, so a much better performance than the ISA. Dividends were £10 from GSK:GSK and £28 from PSN:Persimmon.


I like it when I inject more cash


Bang on the trend line


So what's likely to happen next week? If the PBX:Probiotix Health trading update is limp, then I'm likely to wave goodbye to all those gains. It's unlikely we'll get any news from OPTI:Optibiotix so little chance of salvation there, and at some point soon we'll see the details for the proposed sell-off of the JLP:Jubilee Metals South Africa operation, which will either make or break the company. My confidence levels are currently low for all these. At least I have one more dividend to look forward to. They are coming nearly every week now.

Week 517 Review - First positive week for 6 weeks.

At last, my first positive week after 6 weeks of losses. Made all the more impressive as all my biggest holdings stayed flat. The deficit between cost and value improved by £1,196 to £138,134 and the deficit between injection and value reduced to £63,983. Total portfolio value increased to £108,719.

The worst performer was PSN:Persimmon, which dropped a whopping 10%, although all house builders took a bit of a bashing. I had hoped these were heading back into profit, but they are now 17% down.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy dropped 10% for no particular reason

BLU:Blue Star Capital dropped 9% but unfortunately are only 88% down so I still have to report it.

RNWH:Renew Holdings fell 5% and are back at a loss now.

POLR:Polar Capital went up 7%, which is handy seeing as I just bought a load. They go ex-dividend next week for a big payout.

PAF:Pan African Resources went up 10% over the week, and are now 71% up.

AFC:AFC Energy zoomed up 13% after last week's big rise, so they are only 6% down now.

CWR:Ceres Power had a massive 26% increase but are still 52% down.

Share of the week is TLOU:Tlou Energy, which went up 64%, but it's hard to know why as news isn't coming through. It appears the CEO has announced his retirement and there may be a deal to supply electricity to someone building a data centre near their gas production area. They are still down 19% but looking a bit more promising.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 49 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash £77.02     +£0.32
Portfolio cost £115,378.07 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£40,004.03 (-65.3%) +£730.16
Potential profits £14.75 +£14.75
Yr 10 Dividends £180.12 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £1.45             +£0.32
Yr 10 Profit from sales £284.97 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £32.93 (0.5%) -£1.00
Total Dividends £12,488.07 +£0
Total Interest £8.25     +£0.32
Total Profit from sales £17,560.27 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £247.21 (3.4%) -£0.51
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 34% +0%

Sell value up a healthy £730 mainly due to TLOU:Tlou Energy, CWR:Ceres Power and AFC:AFC Energy. Note that we have £14 potential profit thanks to my new purchase of BOKU:Boku. Hopefully I can continue to report some profit in the ISA from now on, as I'm planning to sell far less often.


Still a very depressing gap between value and injection.


Still below the trend line


The SIPP looks like this after week 501 overall and week 33 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£412.14
+£256.27
Portfolio cost£130,996.93
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£68,236.20(-47.9%)+£466.02
Potential profits£6,224.27
+£345.84
Yr 10 Dividends£1,172.12
+£22.04
Yr 10 Interest£3.12
+£0.77
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,764.16
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£496.70(6.9%)-£14.69
Total Dividends£17,288.77
+£22.04
Total Interest£16.02
+£0.77
Total Profit from sales£19,772.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£307.39(4.3%)-£0.56
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0

I added my £250 monthly investment but it won't be used until next week. Value went up £466 as this has no exposure to the big risers, but profits increased by £345 so most of the increase was in profitable shares. I had a £22 dividend from IHP:Integrafin.



Touching the trend line but failing to get above it.


Trend line pointing up, but we are below it.

Next week should be much more exciting, as I have a £2,500 pension transfer as well as my monthly investment.

Sunday, 29 June 2025

Week 516 Review - Down for the 6th week in a row, but not a bad week generally.

A down week for the 6th week in a row. The FTSE has been buoyant, but my biggest holdings continue to drag the whole portfolio down. This week the culprits are OPTI:Optibiotix and PBX:Probiotix Health. The deficit between cost and value widened by £1,214 to a record £139,330 and the deficit between injection and value grew to £65,186. Total portfolio value actually increased to £107,276, but that's because I added £2,000 to the ISA.

Surprisingly, the worst performer was SCT:Softcat dropping 10%. I really don't understand why. They have had a few good weeks and so remain in profit, but are now only 4% up.

PAF:Pan African Resources dropped 9% despite the price of gold only dropping a couple of percent. Maybe a chunk of people are taking profits having decided gold will at best stagnate. I don't mind too much, as my holding is still 55% up, and the most I've paid is still 10p below where they are now. I plan to hold them long term.

PBX:Probiotix Health fell 8% and has dropped a long way for 2 weeks in a row. As one of my biggest holdings, this significantly contributed to the losses.

TLOU:Tlou Energy also fell again for the 2nd week in a row, dropping another 7% to go 51% down.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy dropped 5% to go 74% down.

IES:Invinity Energy climbed another 12% but that only shifts them from 88% down to 87%.

Similarly, BLU:Blue Star Capital went up 29% so unfortunately I have to start reporting on them again as they are now 86% down. They are still an utterly hopeless case and doomed in the long term.

AJB:AJ Bell, APAX:Apax Global Alpha, and FOUR:4imprint all went up 5% for no obvious reason.

Similarly IHP:Integrafin and RNWH:Renew Holdings went up 6%.

ALPH:Alpha Group went up 7% as we get closer to the cut-off date for finding out if they are going to be bought out.

Share of the Week is PAGE:Pagegroup which got back the 10% they dropped last week. Dunno what was going on there, but they are still 47% down so no sign of getting profitable. They are 49 in my magic formula ranking, so I will be holding them at least until I update my rankings next.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 48 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£76.70-£29.29
Portfolio cost£115,378.07+£2,024.89
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£39,273.87(-66.0%)-£820.35
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£180.12+£0
Yr 10 Interest£1.13            +£0.02
Yr 10 Profit from sales£284.97+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£33.93(0.5%)-£1.12
Total Dividends£12,488.07+£0
Total Interest£7.93    +£0.02
Total Profit from sales£17,560.27+£0
Average monthly cash profit£247.72(3.4%)-£0.52
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance34%-1%

I had a massive MOT bill along with holiday expenses from 2 weeks ago, so decided to get a 0% interest balance transfer, and figured while I'm at it I may as well add another £2,000 to my ISA. I've been frustrated at not being able to sell anything to enable me to buy some of the interesting new AIM shares I've discovered.

The first purchase was just another chunk of JLP:Jubilee Metals. If I'm selling my SIPP shares then I want more in my ISA to hold for the long term, and I'm really, really hoping they have reached their bottom price now. I bought 28,794 at 3.525p costing £1,019.99.

My other purchase was BOKU:Boku which came close to the top of my AIM magic formula ranking. There were a couple of others higher but they have had big price increases recently and look quite expensive. Although BOKU have had a big rise in the last 2 months, and have a P/E ratio of 60, their share price is only at the level it was 4 years ago and they appear to be undergoing rapid growth. I bought 495 shares at 202p costing £1,004.90. They are a payment provider, for which there is much demand.

Big £820 drop in value was frustrating, but less than last week.


Misleading tick up due to injection of £2,000.


Reality bites - further below the trend line.


The SIPP looks like this after week 500 overall and week 32 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£155.87
-£22.83
Portfolio cost£130,996.93
+£176.60
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£67,770.18(-48.3%)-£394.61
Potential profits£5,878.43
-£241.47
Yr 10 Dividends£1,150.08
+£81.93
Yr 10 Interest£2.35
+£0.12
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,764.16
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£511.39(7.1%)-£5.48
Total Dividends£17,266.73
+£81.93
Total Interest£15.25
+£0.12
Total Profit from sales£19,772.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£307.95(4.3%)+£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0

I had some dividends and tax rebates, so added 40 shares in POLR:Polar Capital to my AJ Bell account. They cost 429p a share, with a total of £176.60. I don't mind buying less that £500 in my AJ Bell account, as the dealing charge is only £5.

Portfolio value only dropped by £394 thanks to increases in magic formula shares. Potential profits took a hit of £241 mostly from the drop in PAF:Pan African Resources. I also had £81 dividends made up by £14 from AJB:AJ Bell, £42 from FDM:FDM Group and £24 from PAGE:Pagegroup. That allowed my long term performance to tick up by 7p a month. It could be if I get enough dividends, then my performance will rise without me needing to sell anything.


Still sliding.


At least this one is only just below the trend line


I've requested a £2,500 pension transfer which probably won't appear for a few weeks, but I'm starting to plan what to buy. I'm very tempted to add more CAML:Central Asia Metals, but if PAF:Pan African Resources slips any more, then I may buy some more of those. I think I'm likely to buy existing shares rather then new companies this time. There is however BRK:Brooks Macdonald that I've been watching. They had been on a relentless slide but have been increasing for the last 2 months so it may be safe to buy them now. We shall see...

Week 515 Review - Horrible week throughout most of the portfolio.

A dreadful week with big fallers all over the place, including every single one of my biggest holdings. The deficit between cost and value widened by £3,908 to £138,115 and the deficit between injection and value widened to £64,120 which I'm pretty sure is a new record. The portfolio value dropped to £106,342. It's basically the worst it's ever been and no sign of getting better.

The biggest faller was PBX:Probiotix Health, dropping 13% for no reason other than lack of news and in illiquid trading platform.

PAGE:Pagegroup fell 10% after bad results from a fellow recruitment company, but I thought those were already priced in. These are now 52% down and one of my worst performing magic formula shares. I'm confident they will rebound but it may take some time. I won't be buying more at the moment.

GSK:GSK had been creeping towards profitability but dropped 7% this week to go 15% down after Trump threatened tariffs on drugs coming from overseas.

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped another 6% so my recent purchases were not well timed. As this is my 2nd largest holding, much of the week's losses were from here.

TLOU:Tlou Energy fell another 6% to go 47% down, a slide that will continue a while longer I fear.

TRX:Tissue Regenix have absolutely slumped since announcing a strategic review - they fell another 6% this week to go 79% down.

AFC:AFC Energy have had a few great weeks, but dropped 5% this week but at least are only 16% down in my remaining ISA holding.

CAML:Central Asia Metals fell 5% after jitters caused by a rival bid for the new mine they are after.

PSN:Persimmon also fell 5% just as they were getting towards being profitable, and are now 10% down.

IES:Invinity Energy has been down by over 90% so I haven't been reporting on them, but a 31% increase on the back of a new contract sees them only 88% down, so I have to mention them, but they are not deserving of Share of the Week.

Share of the Week goes to CAPD:Capital after a brilliant set of results saw them climb 15%. They are still 24% down, but looking a hell of a lot better. They are no longer in my top 50 magic formula shares after dropping to 66 in the ranking, so I will sell them if they get back into profit.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 47 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£105.99+£0
Portfolio cost£113,353.18+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£38,069.33(-66.4%)-£1,934.15
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£180.12+£0
Yr 10 Interest£1.11            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£284.97+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£35.05(0.5%)-£0.77
Total Dividends£12,488.07+£0
Total Interest£7.91    +£0
Total Profit from sales£17,560.27+£0
Average monthly cash profit£248.24(3.5%)-£0.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

Very little happened other than a huge drop in value.


Desperate


Well below the trend line


Boring.

The SIPP looks like this after week 499 overall and week 31 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£178.70
-£1.14
Portfolio cost£130,820.33
+£101.84
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£67,988.19(-48.0%)-£1,974.20
Potential profits£6,119.90
-£5.74
Yr 10 Dividends£1,068.15
+£0
Yr 10 Interest£2.23
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,764.16
+£100.71
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£516.87(7.2%)-£2.68
Total Dividends£17,184.80
+£0
Total Interest£15.13
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,772.10
+£100.71
Average monthly cash profit£307.88(4.3%)+£0.25
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0

I sold my holding in AFC:AFC Energy, as I never should have bought it in the SIPP. I'll hold onto my ISA holding though. I sold my 6,551 shares at 17.1211p making £100.71 (9.8%) profit. I used the proceeds to buy another 250 shares in POLR:Polar Capital Holdings, as they are paying a massive dividend in July, and although the big tech companies they are heavily invested in have recovered their share prices, POLR hasn't, so I feel it has room to grow. It also sits 4th on my magic formula ranking, so I wanted more. I paid 439.5341p costing £1,110.79.

Huge drop in portfolio value the same as the ISA, but only a £5 drop in potential profits as the magic formula shares mostly held their ground.


Very similar to ISA


Also below the trend line. I long for the day when this portfolio has a completely different set of shares to the ISA. Unfortunately it's taking longer than I had hoped to offload JLP:Jubilee Metals and OPTI:Optibiotix.


A rare glimmer of hope, with an upward facing trend line and lots of dividends due.

Wednesday, 18 June 2025

Week 514 Review - Friday spoils a flat but until then positive week.

It was looking like a fairly flat week, and the first positive week for a while, until Friday ruined it and I ended up dropping another £1,310 and increasing my deficit between cost and value to £134,207 and deficit between injection amount and value is £60,313. Portfolio value dropped to £110,149.

Worst performer was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, dropping 8%. The lack of news is causing a relentless slide.

BEZ:Beazley is one of my newest magic formula shares, but guess what, it dropped 6% this week for no reason whatsoever.

IHP:Integrafin dropped 6% just as they looked like getting back to break-even, and are now down 13%.

IPX:Impax Asset Management had been creeping up, but dropped 5% this week to go 60% down.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy climbed 5% for no reason but are still 72% down.

PSN:Persimmon went up 7% presumably on the back of other builder updates and are only 5% down now.

TRX:Tissue Regenix climbed 7% after one of its products got certification in Europe, but they are still 77% down.

BPM:BP Marsh & Partners zoomed up 10% after positive final results but are still 5% down.

Share of the Week for the 2nd week in a row is AFC:AFC Energy who zoomed up 32% this week, putting my SIPP holding up by 11%. Given I never should have bought this in my SIPP, it may get sold next week.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 46 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash £105.99 +£0
Portfolio cost £113,353.18 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£40,003.48 (-64.7%) -£1,043.40
Potential profits £0 +£0
Yr 10 Dividends £180.12 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £1.11             +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales £284.97 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £35.82 (0.5%) -£0.79
Total Dividends £12,488.07 +£0
Total Interest £7.91     +£0
Total Profit from sales £17,560.27 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £248.72 (3.5%) -£0.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 35% +0%

Very little change other than the £1,043 drop in value.


Yuck


And there we go below the trend line.


The SIPP looks like this after week 498 overall and week 30 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£179.84
-£245.97
Portfolio cost£130,718.69
+£245.97
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£69,860.55(-46.6%)-£267.40
Potential profits£6,125.64
+£76.26
Yr 10 Dividends£1,068.15
+£0
Yr 10 Interest£2.23
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,663.45
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£519.55(7.2%)-£17.92
Total Dividends£17,184.80
+£0
Total Interest£15.13
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,671.39
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£307.63(4.3%)+£9.61
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0

I did my monthly investment, buying 7 shares in FOUR:4imprint at 3475p costing £245.97. This portfolio had all the big risers, so fared much better than the ISA with just a £267 drop in value, and a £76 increase in potential profits.


Still looks pretty bad


I think that's touching the trend line rather than below it.


This doesn't look too bad really, trend line is up.

I'm getting increasingly worried about both JLP:Jubilee Metals and OPTI:Optibiotix. JLP are just doing loads of random stuff as if they get bored of one thing so flit to another. Selling a profitable operation for only 75% of its NAV, keeping hold of the Platinum resource that we're never ever going to develop, and still not reporting how much we're making from copper.

Meanwhile OPTI:Optibiotix is showing no progress whatsoever in SweetBiotix or microbiome modulators and has done a placing with what was claimed to be a strategic investor which looks like nothing of the sort.

Most of my portfolio is wrapped up in these 2 companies, and it concerns me greatly that if I wasn't invested already, I wouldn't touch either with a bargepole right now.

Sunday, 8 June 2025

Week 513 Review - Optibiotix is my curse and ruins an otherwise OK week.

OPTI:Optibiotix screwed up a reasonable week yet again with a 1.5p drop accounting for all the losses. The deficit between cost and value widened by £1,828 to £132,896 and between injection and value widened to £59,002. Total portfolio value dropped to £111,460, made worse because I withdrew £1,000 from my AJ Bell dealing account.

OPTI:Optibiotix was the worst performer, dropping 11%. My holding is now down by £87,682, which is two thirds of my entire deficit. These are single-handedly ruining my entire portfolio. I'm pretty sick of the broken promises, dreadful spin of mediocre deals, and the fact that currently nobody in their right mind would touch this share with a bargepole. I just keep sitting here hoping Sweetbiotix actually comes to something, else I'll never get to retire as it will take the rest of my life to plug the hole this company has made in my savings.

FDM:FDM Group dropped 8% to go 36% down. This has been a lesson in not buying magic formula shares just because they are near the top of  my ranking spreadsheet, but to check the momentum of the share price. These were dropping when I bought them, and although I think they will bounce back, it's not much use when they are already so far down.

BPM:BP Marsh & Partners dropped 5% after announcing the sale of Sterling Insurance of which it owns 20% to ATC Insurance, of which it owns 25% which rises to 27% as ATC are giving equity to Sterling shareholders as part of the takeover. This seems like a good deal to me, so I don't understand why it resulted in a 5% drop in share price. My holding is now 13% down, but with a P/E ratio of just 5.5 I think this has lots of scope to improve.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy dropped 5% to go 74% down.

TLOU:Tlou Energy dropped 5% to go 37% down, but it seems to swing backwards and forwards by 5% without the price really following any trend. It will take news of power generation to get this moving, which is still some way off.

GAW:Games Workshop went up 5% which is an all-time high and puts my holding up by 73%. They are on a high P/E ratio of 35% so growth is priced in, and a lot depends on the success of the Amazon Warhammer collaboration. If they do drop then I have plenty of a buffer so should be able to retain a profit even if things go horribly wrong.

III:3i Group also went up 5% to take ny holding 166% up. I regret getting spooked by stories of hedge funds shorting the stock, as I sold half my original holding so the 166% is only on an investment of £500. Even at such a high share price, the P/E ratio is still only 8.2, so they could still double from here.

POLR:Polar Capital went up 5% and are now only 20% down, which is a lot better than a few months ago. I think they hold a lot of US tech stock so got hammered more than others by the tariff issues. Their P/E ratio is only 11 so I think I paid a fair price and should at least get back to break even if things stay as they are.

CWR:Ceres Power continue to yo-yo wildly and went up 9% this week, but are still 64% down. Hopefully this time it's the start of a turnaround for hydrogen stocks, as we'll see below.

Share of the Week is my other hydrogen stock AFC:AFC Energy, which went up a magnificent 38% after announcing a deal with a global industrial S&P 500 company to develop ammonia crackers for hydrogen production. Hopefully this deal alone will be enough to move them towards profitability, and hopefully there are more to come.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 45 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£105.99-£47.03
Portfolio cost£113,353.18-£999.29
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£41,046.88(-63.8%)-£856.11
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£180.12+£0
Yr 10 Interest£1.11            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£284.97-£42,58
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£36.61(0.5%)-£5.40
Total Dividends£12,488.07+£0
Total Interest£7.91    +£0
Total Profit from sales£17,560.27-£42.58
Average monthly cash profit£249.21(3.6%)-£0.88
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

I needed to sell my WHR:Warehouse REIT shares to pay for my holiday. They were in my dealing account and only ever meant to be a short term holding. I sold my 910 shares at 105.6833p and made a £42.57 (4.7%) loss, but if you take account of the £107 dividends, I was up by 7% overall.  These have dropped out of the top 50 in my magic formula ranking so I won't buy back, and they may still get bought out shortly anyway. I took £1,000 out of the account so the injection amount has reduced.

Portfolio value dropped £856 mostly thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, but a 0.5p drop in PBX:Probiotix Health also contributed. Long term performance was only affected by 88p a month, but Year 10 took a bit of a blow by £5 a month and my return from sales and dividends is only 0.5% with only 7 weeks of Year 10 to go.


Down we go.


Right on the trend line and continuing to follow it down. Not quite the worst it's been for 12 months but not far off.


Not much of an impression made by the tiny loss as this continues to sink gradually.

The SIPP looks like this after week 497 overall and week 29 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£425.81
-£176.14
Portfolio cost£130,472.52
+£760.36
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£69,881.98(-46.4%)-£972.45
Potential profits£6,049.38
+£175.68
Yr 10 Dividends£1,068.15
+£63.40
Yr 10 Interest£2.23
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,663.45
+£287.58
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£537.47(7.5%)+£32.54
Total Dividends£17,184.80
+£63.40
Total Interest£15.13
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,671.39
+£287.58
Average monthly cash profit£308.24(4.3%)+£2.30
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

Where to start - an awful lot changed this week. It was triggered by JLP:Jubilee Metals announcing they are planning to sell their entire South African business for $90 million. This is the source of most of their income and removes all diversity from the company. It's also to be paid over 3 years so dependent on the company buying it being capable of paying it off, and it seems to undervalue the business. In my view this massively increases the risk of holding JLP.

With that in mind I sold all the JLP shares from my SIPP that were in profit. It still leaves me with a hell of a lot, but it means I get to re-direct a chunk of funds from high risk to magic formula shares in my SIPP, given that the reason I bought JLP in the first place in the SIPP was because I thought it would make a quick profit, but that's not happened or going to happen.

First I sold part of my AJ Bell holding, selling 56,272 shares at 3.966p making £211.79 (10.4%) profit. This liberated £2,226.75. I checked out my magic formula spreadsheet and picked 2 shares that are in the top 30 ranking and which seem to have some upward momentum in their share price.

The first is BEZ:Beazley. They were founded in 1986 and are a global insurance company. They rank 18th on my magic formula spreadsheet and the share price has been growing steadily for the last 2 years. Their P/E ratio is only 5.4 so there should be plenty more room for growth. They ranked 7th highest for 5-year earnings per share growth and 12th highest for ROI. Dividend is only 2.6% but if the share price goes up then so will that percentage based on my purchase price. I bought 113 shares at 962.2495p costing £1,097.78.

The other new share is RNWH:Renew Holdings who provide engineering services for UK projects. They hold 10 subsidiary companies and operate in rail, infrastructure, energy and environmental sectors. Their share price had been rising steadily until January 2025 when a profit warning from the rail part of the business caused a 22% drop in share price. Since then they have reported a record order book and the share price has recovered much of what was lost in January, but is still 30% off its peak price, although P/E ratio is 15 so it appears the current price is about right. They rank 18th for 5-year earnings per share growth and 23rd for ROI and pay a 2.5% dividend. I bought 157 shares at 822.895p costing £1,296.95.

Next I sold some of my Hargreaves Lansdown JLP:Jubilee Metals shares. I sold 72,363 shares at 3.966p making just £75.79 (2.7%) profit, but liberating £2,857.97.

I decided to invest in existing shares rather than new ones.

First I bought 32 shares in ALPH:Alpha Group International at 3078.6095p costing £1,002.04. That takes my holding to 72 shares. They are currently up by 11% and in discussion about being taken over. I'm hoping if they do get taken over it will be for around £40 a share, which will give me a 43% profit of £866. If they don't get taken over, then they sit 39th in my magic formula rankings so I'll hold until they drop out of the top 50. At a P/E ratio of 15 they are currently fairly priced so I'm hoping they will at least maintain that.

Finally I bought more of my favourite company CAML:Central Asia Metals, as I wanted to keep some of the JLP money in copper, and CAML are on P/E ratio of 5.9 which is ludicrous, especially after the recent announcement that they are buying a new company based in Australia, meaning they are involved in Kazakhstan, Macedonia and Australia. They may have to change their name! I bought 1,311 shares at 163.904p costing £2,160.73. That takes my total SIPP holding to 4,336 shares costing £7,408 which are currently down by £340 which isn't a lot. They are still 13th on my magic formula ranking and pay an eye-watering 10.99% dividend. They've taken a hit to their 5-year earnings per share growth, which is -5% at the moment due to expensive capital works in Macedonia, but they should begin to bear fruit now. I want to get my holding up to £10,000 so will buy more if I get a chance to sell more JLP, and I should be getting another £2,000 transfer in early July I can put into these.

So the upshot is that portfolio cost went up by £760, value dropped by £972 but more like £600 if you take into account banked profit, potential profits are up £175 despite cashing some in, Year 10 performance improved and is now at 7.5% halfway through the year, but long term performance only went up by £2 a month and is still poor at 4.3%. I also received a £63 dividend from FOUR:4imprint and added my £250 monthly savings ready to invest in that company next week.


Similar shape to the ISA


Exactly the same as the ISA, touching the trend line and steadily dropping for almost a year.


Nice to see a slight upturn in the green line, and the trend line is pointing upwards. Surprising given the SIPP is meant to be "hold forever" shares!

All eyes will be on JLP:Jubilee Metals next week. The market hasn't had a chance to digest the sale of the South African business yet. It could be looked on favourably as it gives lots of capital for expansion in Zambia, which is also a much more stable county to operate in. Unfortunately we're not making enough revenue from copper yet to be able to replace the chrome and PGMs in South Africa, so I suspect everything rides on announcing strong copper revenue. We may be treading water until then. The price did sneak up 3% this week which may offer some encouragement.