Week 233 Review - Slight recovery but some big drops too.

Although OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 3p, the portfolio climbed less than that due to some big drops elsewhere, most notably CAML:Central Asia Metals. The value improved by £2,909 and the deficit between cost and value narrowed to £30,281, with total value now at £76,939.

Biggest loser was last week's Share of the Week TRMR:Tremor, which gave up 10% of the 16% rise. I knew it was too good to be true that one of the shares in my trading account might be turning around.

IKA:Ilika was Share of the Week the 2 weeks before that, and just as it was about to go into the black, dropped 9% this week and is looking shaky again. Let's hope it was just profit taking.

TLOU:Tlou Energy gave a rather cautious statement about the progress of de-watering the gas beds which triggered a 9% drop on fears that the flows won't be strong enough for a commercial operation. The statement said all indications were still good, but there's more water than was initially anticipated. The key will be maintaining a consistent flow of gas.

I really don't know what could have justified CAML:Central Asia Metals dropping 7% this week. Copper prices are holding, and they were under-priced before the drop. It hammered my performance this week as I hold a lot of these.

Some rare good news for IQE:IQE which climbed 5% this week. Even my best account is 33% down, with my worst a shocking 62% down. We really need the new reactors producing wafers and the 5g infrastructure orders to start roling in.

OPTI:Optibiotix recovered 3p which was 5%, but are still 19% down and losing £14K. I yearn for some news on SweetBiotix which could be the turning point for the share price.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics also recovered from its sympathy dip by 5% in my ISA and 7% in my SIPP. I'm really considering buying some more of these if I dispose of IKA:Ilika or MMX:Minds + Machines, neither of which I regard as long term investments.

Having said that, MMX:Minds + Machines is Share of the Week after a 6% rise has taken it within 3% of being in the black. Do I wait for a dividend announcement or flog them for a small profit so I can get more SBTX?

It looks a disappointingly tiny blip upwards on this chart.

As long as we're still above the trend line I'll be moderately happy.

The ISA and share accounts look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£11.99		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£39,668.89	(-31.3%)	+£1,677.46
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£32.14	(-0.7%)	+£1.34
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£397.19	(8.3%)	-£1.71
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	12.8%		+0%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Not much to show other than the OPTI:Optibiotix gains caused most of the uplift. Still no shares in profit, but a few very close.

We didn't cross the orange line, but came very close.

Any upward momentum has vanished of the left hand side. It's 12 months of declining value and every time I think a recovery is about to happen, it plunges downwards again.

The SIPP looks like this after week 217

			Weekly Change
Cash	£74.75		+£0
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£35,824.51	(-23.8%)	+£1,283.75
Potential profits	£362.97		-£420.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.02		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£13.76	(-0.4%)	+£1.72
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.18		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£279.10	(7.1%)	-£1.30
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.2%		-0.1%
Compound performance	47%		+0%

More than half my profits in CAML:Central Asia Metals were wiped out, severely limiting the size of the uplift in value and vexing me considerably.

Below halfway between the injection line and the cost line, which is bad.

Same story of continuous 12 month decline as we see in the ISA.

The trading account looks like this after week 183

		Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,311.12	(-43.5%)	-£52.18
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.12	(1.1%)	-£0.08
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.39	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Most of last weeks gains have gone with big falls for CAML:Central Asia Metals and TRMR:Tremor.

The recovery didn't last.

Some comfort that we're above the trend line.

I've not reported on my magic formula account while I was on holiday, so here's how it performed over the three weeks

			Weekly Change
Cash	£153.61		+£0
Portfolio cost	£29,846.39		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£31,169.62	(+4.4%)	+£68.89
Potential profits	£1,898.42		+£366.96
Year 1 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 1 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 1 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£0		+£0
Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Potential profits are up by £366 but some losses deepened so overall value is only up by £68. Key thing is it's doing better than my real accounts!

The best performing share is an old holding of mine TW.:Taylor Wimpey, up by 26%, closely followed by BDEV:Barratt Developments up 21% and PSN:Persimmon at 20%. All the house builders seem to be on a Brexit roll.

The worst performers are BUR:Burford Capital down 15% and BMN:Bushveld Minerals down 11%, both of which are in the more risky AIM category and which my due diligence may well filter out of any real purchases.

That's the holiday catch-up finished. Let's hope for a nice week and some form of recovery - and dare I hope for a share to go into profit? IKA:Ilika, MMX:Minds + Machines and JLP:Jubilee Metals are all really close.

Week 232 Review - Desperate misery as Optibiotix crashes despite great trading update

Unbelievable - the OPTI:Optibiotix trading update was exactly what was expected, in fact it exceeded expectations as there was an extra £500K owed by companies where we couldn't book the money in the accounts, and that will all come through in H1 of 2020. A 7p drop in share price was the main culprit for this week's drop of £7,380, widening the gap between cost and value to £33,190 and reducing overall value to £74,030.

As mentioned above, the worst performer this week was my biggest holding
OPTI:Optibiotix, dropping 11%. The volatility of this share price is massively frustrating. I know I should relax and be patient, as rewards will be reaped in the future, but it's hard when you are sitting on such big paper losses.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dropped 10% in sympathy I think, with my SIPP holding 19% down and my ISA holding 40% down on purchase price. There should be a second big deal announced soon, and hopefully this one will promise revenues a bit sooner than the last. Again, as a patient investor it shouldn't be an issue that income is 2 years away. I should just be buying more while they are cheap.

JLP:Jubilee Metals had a good week, climbing 5% and getting to within 3% of being in profit. It's been a long wait, but hope has really been kindled for these.

RDT:Rosslyn Data climbed an impressive 8%, but they are still 67% down and I fear a long way from getting back into the black. This is a very small holding for me though.

IKA:Ilika march forward another 12% and are only down by commission now. If someone had asked me to list the order of the shares that I would expect to return to the black next, this one would have been well down the list.

Share of the week is TRMR:Tremor, which climbed a whopping 16% but is still 32% down in my trading account. I think there's a good chance these are going to recover now.

Back into deep trouble

The only ray of sunshine is we're still above the trend line.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£11.99		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£37,991.43	(-34.2%)	-£3,885.76
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£33.48	(-0.7%)	+£1.45
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£398.90	(8.3%)	-£1.73
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	12.8%		-0.2%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Huge drop, nearly all of which is down to OPTI:Optibiotix.

Only just above the injection line.

Here's the SIPP after week 216

			Weekly Change
Cash	£74.75		+£0
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£34,540.76	(-26.5%)	-£3,575.41
Potential profits	£782.97		+£30.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.02		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£15.48	(-0.4%)	+£2.21
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.18		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£280.40	(7.2%)	-£1.30
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.3%		+0%
Compound performance	47%		+0%

Same OPTI:Optibiotix problem as the ISA, but CAML:Central Asia Metals climbed a little to raise potential profits by £30

Still a healthy buffer here.

Here's the trading account after week 182

		Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,363.30	(-41.3%)	+£82.07
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.20	(1.1%)	-£0.09
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.39	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Nice week, with lots of rises, but still no prospect of a sale.

It's been going in the right direction for a few weeks now.

I'm reasonably hopeful this lot will turn around.

That's it - no more for this catch-up week.

Week 231 Review - Not a lot happened

I'm on a post-holiday catch-up so the next 2 updates will be brief and just act as a record of where we were at the end of each week. Not a bad week, with portfolio value dropping by £952 and the deficit between cost and value widening to £25,810. Total value is £81,409.

The only big mover was IKA:Ilika, which rose 13% on the back of a 14% rise last week wo earn Share of the Week again.This is now only 12% down.

Here's the ISA and share accounts snapshot

			Weekly Change
Cash	£11.99		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£42,329.65	(-27.5%)	-£452.46
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£34.93	(-0.7%)	+£0.85
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£400.63	(8.3%)	-£1.81
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.0%		+0%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

The biggest drop was caused by a 1p fall in OPTI:Optibiotix.

Here's the SIPP after week 215

			Weekly Change
Cash	£74.75		-£16.22
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£38,116.17	(-18.9%)	-£498.64
Potential profits	£752.97		+£60.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.02		+£0.01
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£17.69	(-0.4%)	-£8.77
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.18		+£0.01
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£283.34	(7.2%)	-£1.33
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.3%		-0.1%
Compound performance	47%		+0%

Similar story to above, but an extra £60 on CAML:Central Asia Metals potential profits and cash and year 5 monthly average profits down due to monthly charges.

Here's the trading portfolio after Week 181

		Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,281.23	(-44.8%)	-£1.57
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.29	(1.2%)	-£0.09
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.39	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Hardly any change here

Week 230 Review - Santa buggered off

It was all looking so positive, even up to this morning, with many of my holdings up significantly. However OPTI:Optibiotix plunged today and ruined the week and what I hoped was a great start to the year. The portfolio value dropped by £5,693 and the deficit between cost and value widened to £24,858 with the overall value dropping to £82,3982.

Worst performer and only major faller was OPTI:Optibiotix which dropped 6p or 9%. That would have cost me £6,300 so it shows the other shares were up by £600. I guess the traders are taking their 10% from when they bought in the late 40's.

JLP:Jubilee Metals started to move again, climbing 6% and this is only 10% down now. The next production figures should see a re-rate.

MMX:Minds + Machines are also starting to motor, with a 9% climb this week meaning they are only 7% down altogether. I really hope they announce a dividend.

Share of the Week is IKA:Ilika which went up by 14% but is still 25% down. I think there's a feeling the car battery technology may pay off so folks are piling in. I'm still keen to pile out as I'm not convinced they have a clue about how to be commercial.

Blip or trend?

At least we're still pulling the trend line flatter.

Here's the performance of the ISA and share accounts

			Weekly Change
Cash	£15.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£42,329.65	(-26.7%)	-£3,034.00
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£35.78	(-0.7%)	+£1.70
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£402.44	(8.4%)	-£1.76
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.0%		+0%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Pretty much all of the drop is down to OPTI:Optibiotix, just one week after I was hoping to report that it was back in profit.

Every time is starts looking promising, down we go again.

Still on the right side of the trend line, but in a few weeks there will be nothing left in the black.

The SIPP looks like this after week 214

			Weekly Change
Cash	£90.97		+£0.01
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£38,614.81	(-17.8%)	-£2,694.21
Potential profits	£707.97		+£60.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.01		+£0.01
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£8.92	(-0.2%)	+£1.79
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.18		+£0.01
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£283.34	(7.2%)	-£1.33
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.4%		+0%
Compound performance	47%		+0%

Similar story to the ISA, but at least CAML:Central Asia Metals climbed by £60 potential profits, and I spotted 1p interest earned in December - yippee!

Still just above halfway between the orange and red lines

I have almost 6 months before all the above zero values disappear.

The trading account looks like this after week 180

		Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,282.80	(-44.7%)	+£34.98
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.38	(1.2%)	-£0.11
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.39	(-0.2%)	+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Another reasonable week, with small increases in most of the shares. CAML:Central Asia Metals is now only 12% down, so there is a vague hope something could happen here.

Who am I trying to kid - this is still way down on just a few months ago.

Just above the trend line though

Here's the virtual magic formula account

			Weekly Change
Cash	£153.61		+£0
Portfolio cost	£29,846.39		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£30,920.30	(+3.6%)	-£180.43
Potential profits	£1,350.65		-£180.81
Year 1 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 1 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 1 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£0		+£0
Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Quite impressive that the reduction in value is accounted for by a reduction in paper profits down to just a few pence. Best performer is EVR:Evraz, up 12.21% since I "bought" them, and worst performer is BMN:Bushveld Minerals, down by 12.17%.

No updates for a few weeks now as I'm off on holiday, but I'll take weekly snapshots and do a big catch-up at the end of January. By then OPTI:Optibiotix will have issued a trading statement, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics may have announced their second deal, JLP:Jubilee Metals may have re-rated, MMX:Minds+Machines may have hinted at a dividend, and TALY:Tally may have lifted their suspension. We can but hope.