Sunday 25 July 2021

Week 311 Review - Another dreadful week, but added more magic formula shares

It just keeps getting worse. When is St Leger's Day as it can't come soon enough! The deficit between cost and value widened by another £3,516 this week to £36,609. Most of the drop was down to a 2p fall in OPTI:Optibiotix Health, but most shares lost money. The portfolio value dropped to £109,413 and there's an increasing risk it will go below £100k.

My worst performer was ASY:Andrews Sykes Group which dropped 12%. When I say it dropped 12%, it didn't actually drop at all. The share is so illiquid it has a gigantic spread, so my new purchase was 12% down as soon as I made it. The spread nearly stopped me buying it, but it's clearly there in the top 10 magic formula shares and pays a big dividend, so I'm reasonably comfortable by the time I review them in 12 months time, the 12% will have been got back. I bought 176 shares at 568p costing £1,008.63. That was better than I hoped, as the offer price is 590p, but the bid price is only 510p making a 14% spread on paper.

OPTI:Optibiotix Health dropped 2p which is 3% and contributed around £3,200 of the weeks losses.

There were a few performers this week. SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy had an amazing day on Friday finishing up 83% on their price from the day before. However that amounted to just 5% of my purchase price given they had dropped earlier in the week and my purchase price was so high. The worry over half the shares being in the hands of receivers has gone away and was the catalyst for the rise.

JLP:Jubilee Metals wins Share of the Week for an 18% rise on my purchase price as they recover from the scare when things started kicking off in South Africa. News on copper production should see this move to new highs.




The green line is down despite an injection of £2,000.




If anything the fall is getting steeper and has been going for 6 months.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 51 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £35.33

+£0
Portfolio cost £68,170.47
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £52,714.59 (-22.7%) -£1,562.43
Potential profits £6,824.08
+£400.00
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £3,697.33
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £310.33 (8.5%) -£6.21
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,123.94
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £350.98 (9.6%) -£1.13
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57%
+0%

Not a lot of activity. JLP:Jubilee Metals climbed by £400 but that didn't do much to soften the £1,562 drop in value. With one week left of year 6 it's looking like a slightly below average year for profits, but I'll take 8.5%.






The lowest point since around 9 months ago.

The SIPP looks like this after week 295 overall and week 35 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £472.54
-£19.83
Portfolio cost £75,478.31
+£2,019.83
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£55,388.94 (-26.6%) -£1,919.13
Potential profits £775.52
+£90.00
Yr 6 Dividends £888.61
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £7,774.62
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,055.99 (27.7%) -£31.06
Total Dividends £2,955.69
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £23,234.06
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £373.62 (9.8%) -£1.27
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 56% -2%

My £2,000 injection came through from my work pension so I was able to get 2 more magic formula shares. I've already mentioned ASY:Andrews Sykes Group, which came 7th on my ranking list with P/E ratio of 17.82 (ranked 125), dividend yield of 8.56% (ranked 14), ROCE of 22.88 (ranked 36) and debt to profits ratio of 1.88 (ranked 53). So excellent dividend and ROCE, not bad debt, and price nothing to write home about but fair value. The main red flag is the illiquidity of the shares given there are only 42 million and 86% are on the hands of the founding family. However, this has been the situation for many years so I see it as a reason the share price isn't higher as traders will stay well clear, but not as a reason to avoid. The huge spread was actually not as huge as advertised, but still pretty huge. As a long term investment it shouldn't be an issue.

The next share on my magic formula list was ASHM:Ashmore Group, a company that manages assets in emerging markets. They were one of the first companies I ever invested in, buying at 252p and selling for £149 (15.8%) profit. This time the shares were 373p and I bought 267 costing £1,011.20. On my spreadsheet they have P/E ratio of 13.38 (ranked 103), dividend yield of 4.27% (ranked 82), ROCE of 24.65 (ranked 31) and debt to profit ratio of 0.76 (ranked 24). So it was mainly low debt and high ROCE that got them ranked so high, with a decent dividend and fair share price. There is some risk that Covid could have a worse impact on the markets they specialise in, but they've been operating under that cloud for over a year and seem to be doing ok, so I decided it was a risk worth taking.

Meanwhile there was a tiny £90 improvement in profits thanks to CAML:Central Asia Metals, and a thumping great drop in value caused by everything else losing money.




Green line way closer to orange is very bad.




The trend line is properly downward now and steepening rapidly. I don't think the SIPP has ever been this far in the red.

The trading account looks like this after week 261 overall and week 1 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,310.12 (-44.8%) -£35.37
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Dividends £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Profit £0.00
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £0.00 (0%) +£0
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £16.57 (8.4%) -£0.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

The start of year 6 so everything set to zero, but with the portfolio 44% down there's no chance of selling anything for ages. Just a case of sitting it out and hoping for some good news. Most shares dropped this week so another £35 was knocked off the value.




Only cash is keeping this above the orange line.




The trend line has turned downwards and will steepen rapidly unless something good happens.

I've decided to set up a monthly savings plan in my SIPP as I've paid off one of my loans used to buy more OPTI:Optibiotix Health (for more than the share price is now!!). The benefit of saving £120 a month into my SIPP is that the tax refund is more than enough to pay my SIPP charges, and there is no commission charged on the purchases. I'm investing it into the Blackrock World Gold fund as that's probably a safer bet then some of the miners and means I can start selling the higher risk ones like HUM:Hummingbird Resources, CMCL:Caledonia Mining and CEY:Centamin as you never know when they will have some sort of disaster that hammers the share price. At the current price I'll get 5 shares a month as they are around £21 each. I really wanted to buy a Gold ETF but none were available in the monthly savings scheme. With hindsight I probably should have set this up in my AJ Bell account instead of Hargreaves Lansdown, but only just thought of that!

Week 310 Review - Really bad week and no sign of hope

Week after week of rubbish performance across the board. Nearly everything was down this week, and with OPTI:Optibiotix losing 3p the damage to the portfolio was £6,398, widening the deficit between cost and value to £33,092 and reducing overall value to £111,697. It's just a massive relief that despite things being really bad, the value has stayed above £100k. Dropping below that would be morale crushing.

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped 30% of my purchase price, probably as a result of the troubles in South Africa. They are still 297% up so I'll not panic just yet.

OPTI:Optibiotix fell 5% which cost me £4,800 of this week's losses. We desperately need SweetBiotix news to get us out of this trading range.

Share of the Week was TLOU:Tlou Energy, which only climbed 3% but was by far the biggest riser this week. A sorry state of affairs.






The recent slight recovery appears to have been a blip

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 50 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £35.33

+£0
Portfolio cost £68,170.47
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £54,277.02 (-20.4%) -£3,414.10
Potential profits £6,424.08
-£650.00
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £3,697.33
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £316.54 (8.7%) -£6.46
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,123.94
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £352.11 (9.6%) -£1.14
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57%
+0%

Big drop in potential profits thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals, which rather troublingly is the only share even remotely close to being in profit in the portfolio. Only 2 more weeks of year 6 left and it's looking like it will be up there close to the long term performance, which isn't too bad given it's been a Covid year.




Closer to the orange line than the red which is bad.




I still can't believe that moment in the black 6 months ago was so brief

The SIPP looks like this after week 294 overall and week 34 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £492.37
+£0
Portfolio cost £73,458.48
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£55,288.24 (-24.7%) -£2,934.44
Potential profits £685.52
-£127.50
Yr 6 Dividends £888.61
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £7,774.62
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,087.05 (29.8%) -£32.94
Total Dividends £2,955.69
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £23,234.06
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £374.89 (10.3%) -£1.28
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 58% +0%

After selling all my profitable magic formula shares, the only one left in profit is CAML:Central Asia Metals, and that dropped this week so potential profits are down £127. The new magic formula shares haven't got off to a very good start, but aren't down too much, and I do have a year to hold them

I've got another £2,000 arriving in my account next week from my work pension, so will be buying two more magic formula shares with that.




Given the costs has risen so much, the flat line is deceptive




That's a much more realistic, and somewhat devastating chart.

The trading account looks like this after week 260 overall and week 52 of year 5.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,345.49 (-43.3%) -£49.87
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 5 Dividends £12.18
+£0
Year 5 Profit £651.51
+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit £55.31 (28.0%) -£1.08
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £16.63 (8.4%) -£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

Another bad week losing £49 value and going 43% down with no sign of being able to sell anything for quite a while. The good news is that we reached the end of year 5 with a fantastic 28% profit of £55 a month. I'm really pleased with that, and it helps make up for the rest of the gloom around the portfolio. Let's see if year 6 can get anywhere near that. It's not looking too promising so far.




Almost down to the injection line, which we haven't crossed for a while.




Well on the bright side, it makes a nice mountain picture!

Looking forward to getting my £2,000 pension transfer next week. I will be resisting the temptation to buy more OPTI:Optibiotix or DDDD:4D Pharma shares while they are cheap, and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is still too expensive to get back into, so I'll be buying more magic formula shares.

Tuesday 13 July 2021

Week 309 Review - Flat again with no sign of uplift

A really flat and dull week. The deficit between cost and value widened by just £349 to £26,693 and total portfolio value dropped to £118,096.

The only big loser was TLOU:Tlou Energy dropping 5%, presumably on lack of news.

Share of the Week was JLP:Jubilee Metals rising 7% to go up by £327% altogether.




Stuck in a rut for months.




Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 49 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £35.33

-£3.75
Portfolio cost £68,170.47
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £57,691.12 (-15.4%) -£118.25
Potential profits £7,074.08
-£150.00
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £3,697.33
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £323.00 (8.8%) -£7.06
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,123.94
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £353.25 (9.7%) -£1.20
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57%
+0%

JLP:Jubilee Metals potential profits rose by £150 which more than halved the losses elsewhere to £118. Monthly fees were collected from the cash.




Flat




Less flat

The SIPP looks like this after week 293 overall and week 33 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £492.37
-£2.67
Portfolio cost £73,458.48
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£58,222.68 (-20.7%) -£222.55
Potential profits £813.02
-£37.50
Yr 6 Dividends £888.61
+£14.10
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £7,774.62
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,119.99 (30.7%) -£35.36
Total Dividends £2,955.69
+£14.10
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £23,234.06
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £376.17 (10.3%) -£1.33
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 58% +0%


A £14 dividend was receive from FXPO:Ferrexpo which almost paid for the monthly SIPP fee but not quite. Potential profits slipped as CAML:Central Asia Metals fell slightly, but thankfully long term performance is still above target.






Firmly into a downwards trend.

The trading account looks like this after week 259 overall and week 51 of year 5.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,395.36 (-41.2%) -£9.05
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 5 Dividends £12.18
+£0
Year 5 Profit £651.51
+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit £56.39 (28.5%) -£1.13
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £16.70 (8.4%) -£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)


Hardly anything moved.






I'm late writing up again. My heart's just not in it at the moment. I'm suspecting it's going to be flat until September now.

Sunday 4 July 2021

Week 308 Review - Roller coaster week ends slightly up

By the end of trading on Monday I was £6,500 up and it was looking like a great week, but that vanished to a £2,500 loss as the week wore on, only to recover at the last minute to a £1,008 rise. That reduced the deficit between cost and value to £26,344 and increased total value to £118,452.

JLP:Jubilee Metals was the only big loser, giving up the 18% gain from last week, but they are still 320% up

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed by 1p which is only 2% but was almost enough to win Share of the Week.

The prize goes to TRX:Tissue Regenix which climbed 3%, a rise so small it wouldn't normally get a mention, but it was my best performer this week. They are still 60% down, but I haven't given up hope for them and am still tempted to get a few more at these prices.




Flat



A tiny tick up but well below the trend line

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 48 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £39.08

+£0
Portfolio cost £68,170.47
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £57,809.37 (-15.2%) +£322.99
Potential profits £6,924.08
-£400.00
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £3,697.33
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £330.06 (9.0%) -£7.03
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,123.94
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £354.45 (9.7%) -£1.15
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57%
+0%


Only slightly up by £322 thanks to the £400 drop in JLP:Jubilee Metals in a pretty uneventful week.







Still below the trend line, but not by very much.

The SIPP looks like this after week 292 overall and week 32 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £495.04
+£0
Portfolio cost £73,458.48
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£58,445.23 (-20.4%) +£682.69
Potential profits £850.52
-£30.00
Yr 6 Dividends £874.51
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £7,774.62
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,155.35 (31.7%) -£37.27
Total Dividends £2,941.59
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £23,234.06
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £377.50 (10.4%) -£1.30
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 58% +0%

Hardly anything happened here either. CAML:Central Asia Metals is the only share in profit and it dropped by just £30, and the 1p climb in OPTI:Optibiotix cancelled out all the small losses and gave an improvement of £682.






A lot further below the trend line, and it's now pointing downwards which is exceptionally bad.

The trading account looks like this after week 258 overall and week 50 of year 5.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,404.41 (-40.8%) +£2.70
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 5 Dividends £12.18
+£0
Year 5 Profit £651.51
+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit £57.52 (29.1%) -£1.17
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £16.76 (8.5%) -£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

That pretty much sums up how little happened this week. In increase in value of £2. Only 2 weeks of year 5 left to go, and it's looking like the best ever performance with an average of over £55 a month profit. It would be nice to think I can sell something soon but it doesn't look likely, and transferring across the £2,500 from selling the OPTI:Optibiotix in my share account when it passes 84p is looking like a long, long way off yet.







A pretty rubbish 5 months.

That's it - late to write up again and I want something to eat, so no time to speculate on what may or may not happen next week. Suffice to say it's been a long, long time since we had a really good week.