Week 420 Review - Another negative week as all microbiome shares slide

A pretty bad week, with most shares dropping and all my microbiome shares dropping. The result was an increase in the deficit between cost and value of £4,739 to £85,087 and reduction in portfolio value to £107,082. Still above the all-important £100k to help my morale.

Biggest drop was the 2p fall in PBX:Probiotix Health, which was 9% of my main holding and 26% of my most recent holding price.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics also dropped 2p which was 5% of my old holding and 9% of the price of the shares I bought last week.

OPTI:Optibiotix only dropped 1.5p but that accounted for over £3,000 of the losses. My recent purchases dropped 15% whereas my more expensive shares just 2%.

Share of the Week was JLP:Jubilee Metals which climbed 1p. That's between 8% and 13% in my various holdings. It was the only sizable gainer of the week.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 4 of year 9.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£152.28		+£0
Portfolio cost	£93,364.33		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£50,405.06	(-46.0%)	-£2,395.82
Potential profits	£2,535.70		-£495.03
Yr 9 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Interest	£0.47		+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit	-£5.81	(-0.1%)	+£1.93
Total Dividends	£11,911.43		+£0
Total Interest	£2.40		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,298.53		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£297.43	(5.5%)	-£0.71
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	44%		+0%

Not much to report. Big drop in value and OPTI:Optibiotix potential profit, but GAW:Games Workshop also dropped 2% to reduce potential profits there too.

The injection line seems a long way away again

Still comfortably above the trend line which I expect to flatten out next week.

The SIPP looks like this after week 404 overall and week 40 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£317.64		+£166.49
Portfolio cost	£96,247.60		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£54,787.50	(-43.1%)	-£2,416.30
Potential profits	£3,872.51		-£332.43
Yr 8 Dividends	£253.36		+£13.99
Yr 8 Interest	£3.98		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£9,597.85		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	-£1,023.46	(-18.8%)	+£27.79
Total Dividends	£14,396.14		+£13.99
Total Interest	£4.23		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£10,835.90		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£258.85	(4.7%)	-£0.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	37%		+0%

Cash went up thanks to a couple of tax rebates and a £13 dividend from UKW:Greencoat UK Wind. Potential profits down thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, although III:3i Group did go up by 2% to help reduce the impact.

Hopefully we'll be able to hold here for a bit. I'm worried it will slide if there is no news.

The trend line is just about pointing upwards. Now we just need to stay above it right back to break even.

The trading account looks like this after week 370 overall and week 6 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£273.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,794.51		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,146.48	(-36.1%)	+£72.84
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 8 Interest	£0		+£0
Year 8 Profit	£283.99		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	£205.10	(+137.2%)	-£41.02
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.03		+£0
Profit from sales	-£646.70		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£6.87	(-4.6%)	+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

BARC:Barclays dropped another percent, but the rise in JLP:Jubilee Metals saw portfolio value rise by £72. Let's hope that continues.

Almost back up to the recent high

Back on the upward trend line. I don't mind touching it if we're heading upwards.

Nothing else to say today. It's been a bit of a nothing week and I'm just holding out for people getting back to work in September, and some news from OPTI:Optibiotix, PBX:Probiotics and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics to try and halt the drift.

Week 419 Review - Almost everything drops and I buy a load of SkinBioTherapeutics

A red week all round, with the miners particularly hard hit. OPTI:Optibiotix didn't move, but all the other losses dragged the portfolio down by £1,039 and left the deficit between cost and value at £80,328. Portfolio value increased to £111,654 as I injected another £5,000.

Worst performer was ANTO:Antofagasta, and to make matters worse the slide came after a spike upwards which is when I bought my monthly shares, so my average price increased just before it dropped 8%.

CEY:Centamin and EDV:Endeavour Mining didn't do much better, both dropping 7% as the gold price wavered.

PSN:Persimmon also dropped 7% as the house builders took a hit.

JLP:Jubilee Metals has been drifting really badly and fell between 4% and 6% in my various holdings.

CAML:Central Asia Metals also dropped 5% as the miners slumped.

GAW:Games Workshop had a bad week, dropping 5% but is still 12% in profit.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, which climbed between 9% and 11% in my existing holdings, and is 3% in profit for the new shares I bought this week.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 3 of year 9.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£152.28		-£1.52
Portfolio cost	£93,364.33		+£4,999.91
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£52,800.88	(-43.4%)	-£356.07
Potential profits	£3,030.73		+£118.55
Yr 9 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Interest	£0.47		+£0.47
Yr 9 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit	-£7.74	(-0.1%)	+£0.39
Total Dividends	£11,911.43		+£0
Total Interest	£2.40		+£0.47
Total Profit from sales	£17,298.53		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£298.14	(5.5%)	-£0.73
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	44%		-4%

Value only dropped by £356, which isn't bad given what a dreadful week it was for most of the portfolio. Potential profits rose by £118 but that's all thanks to a timely purchase.

I've been decidedly miffed at the performance of my premium bonds for the last 2 months, generating £25 from 50,000. Although the whole point of keeping them is to have access to cash if I need it, I figured I could get by with 45,000. I've been increasingly optimistic about the potential of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics recently, and my holding was only 8,036 shares, so I wanted a significant increase while they are still below 30p. I bought 22,527 at 22.151p costing £4,999.91 and they finished the week at 23p which is a potential profit of £171. I think 30p is achievable quite quickly which would put them up by £1,748, and if they get back to their recent peak of 80p I'll have £13,011 profit from the new shares and about £4,000 from the old ones. I think that will happen next year if Croda finally announce a deal.

The increase in portfolio cost dropped my long term performance from 6% to 5.5% and compound performance dropped by 4%, as it's measured against cash injection.

Always difficult to work out what's going on when there's a cash injection

That shows more accurately that it was an almost flat week, and the trend line is almost flat too.

The SIPP looks like this after week 403 overall and week 39 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£151.15		-£1.16
Portfolio cost	£96,247.60		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£57,203.80	(-40.6%)	-£638.90
Potential profits	£4,204.94		-£45.73
Yr 8 Dividends	£239.37		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£3.98		+£0.16
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£9,597.85		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	-£1,051.25	(-19.3%)	+£27.54
Total Dividends	£14,382.15		+£0
Total Interest	£4.23		+£0.16
Total Profit from sales	£10,835.90		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£259.34	(4.8%)	-£0.66
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	37%		+0%

Cash dropped due to AJ Bell fees minus interest payments. This portfolio fared worse than the ISA due to having more exposure to miners, and III:3i Group dropped so potential profits are down £45. Otherwise rather quiet.

Not quite as flat as the ISA, but pretty flat.

This trend line is almost flat too.

The trading account looks like this after week 369 overall and week 5 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£273.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,794.51		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,073.64	(-40.2%)	-£44.12
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 8 Interest	£0		+£0
Year 8 Profit	£283.99		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	£246.12	(+164.6%)	-£61.53
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.03		+£0
Profit from sales	-£646.70		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£6.89	(-4.6%)	+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Everything fell in value, so we're back to the normal behaviour of this account. My BARC:Barclays purchase was another of my ill-timed disasters as they are down 13% now, although I will get a dividend next month.

Depressing

Gutted that we've dropped below the trend line. How can I be so bad at this?

A pretty flat week really, despite most shares having a bad week. The holdings are so small that it doesn't have the impact of a move in OPTI:Optibiotix or PBX:Probiotix, but it shows that I can still lose £1,000 if almost everything drops a little.

I've given up on getting any OPTI:Optibiotix news until September now. Everyone is on holiday, so there's no chance of getting any contracts signed. The fact the share price stayed flat was a massive relief as I thought it would continue to drift back down. Let's hope it doesn't do that for the next 2 weeks until we get into September.

Week 418 Review - Last week's gains wiped out as Optibiotix drops.

I guess it was too much to hope that the great run would continue, and this week was one of the worst ever weeks, with most of last week's gains being wiped out as OPTI:Optibiotix fell 8p. It was a pretty rotten week across most of the portfolio, with few shares finishing the week better off. The deficit between cost and value widened by £18,397 to £79,289 and total portfolio value dropped to £107,696.

The worst performer was ANTO:Antofagasta, which zoomed upwards early in the week until the day I did my monthly savings transaction, after which it absolutely plummeted leaving me having purchased at the top of the spike. The impact was a 12% drop in value, and I went from being 11% up to 1% down. Just about summed up the week!

RIO:Rio Tinto also struggled, dropping 5% despite announcing lots of exciting new ventures.

The biggest disaster was OPTI:Optibiotix dropping 8p. For my cheapest shares that was a drop of 83%, and even for my most expensive shares it was a drop of 9%.

There was some consolation for some of my other larger holdings, with CAML:Central Asia Metals up 5% after being tipped in a Sunday paper. That was enough to put one of my holdings 2% into profit.

PBX:Probiotix Health climbed 1p, which is 5% for my big dividend holding, and 13% for my more recent cheaper buys.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which climbed 11% and begged the question whether people were selling OPTI to buy SBTX?

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 2 of year 9.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£153.80		-£109.89
Portfolio cost	£88,364.43		+£509.89
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£48,157.05	(-45.5%)	-£8,417.81
Potential profits	£2,912.18		-£2,018.58
Yr 9 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit	-£8.15	(-0.2%)	+£8.13
Total Dividends	£11,911.43		+£0
Total Interest	£1.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,298.53		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£298.87	(6.0%)	-£0.72
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	48%		+0%

I found £400 down the back of various account's sofas and added it to my ISA along with £100 of dividends transferred from my AJ Bell dealing account. That gave me £500 to buy some more shares. I bought 7,143 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 6.999p costing £509.89 as I think they are ridiculously under priced. That brings the average for my AJ Bell holding down to 7.414p and increases my holding there to 26,703, and my total JLP holding now stands at 143,725. They are losing £5,168 at the moment so a turnaround would have a significant improvement on my overall performance.

The rest of the story is misery as half my potential OPTI:Optibiotix profits are wiped out along with £8,417 portfolio value.

I guess it's not a surprise, but I was hoping for consolidation rather than a big drop.

Still reassuringly high above the trend line which will hopefully flatten out soon.

The SIPP looks like this after week 402 overall and week 38 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£152.31		-£232.06
Portfolio cost	£96,247.60		+£232.06
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£57,842.70	(-39.9%)	-£9,951.22
Potential profits	£4,250.67		-£3,094.23
Yr 8 Dividends	£239.37		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£3.82		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£9,597.85		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	-£1,078.79	(-19.8%)	+£29.15
Total Dividends	£14,382.15		+£0
Total Interest	£4.07		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£10,835.90		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£260.00	(4.8%)	-£0.65
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	37%		+0%

My monthly savings investment was with ANTO:Antofagasta where I bought 14 shares at 1638.67p costing £232.06 with commission and stamp duty. They immediately fell to 1509p, which I consider a disaster of bad timing. The rest of the story mirrors that of the ISA thanks to the big drop in OPTI:Optibiotix.

It was nice to be above the injection for a short time.

The trend line might be flat by next week unless we plummet again.

The trading account looks like this after week 368 overall and week 4 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£273.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,794.51		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,117.76	(-37.7%)	-£28.47
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 8 Interest	£0		+£0
Year 8 Profit	£283.99		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	£307.65	(+205.7%)	-£102.55
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.03		+£0
Profit from sales	-£646.70		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£6.91	(-4.6%)	+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Everything dropped this week, so we're back to a familiar pattern for the trading account. My genius purchase of BARC:Barclays has been underwhelming, with them dropping 12% in a few weeks, and my two purchases of JLP:Jubileee Metals are down by 48%. At least I have £273 cash, which I'm half tempted to take out to get the injection line down, but the prospect of only needing £230 profit to enable an additional share to be bought means I'll leave it alone.

I guess that doesn't look too bad compared the the recent past

Right on the trend line, which means we have to go up next week to avoid dipping below it.

OPTI:Optibiotix was bound to drift if there was no news, but I was really hoping there would be news. If none is forthcoming next week there's a risk we'll drift the same amount again and all my optimism would have been a very short-lived spike. The key to maintaining my morale is not to drop more than £7k, as that will take my portfolio value back below £100k and I'll be very sad.

Week 417 Review - Optibiotix rises again to complete the best 3 weeks ever

Yet another amazing week for OPTI:Optibiotix with a 9.5p rise contributing virtually all of the gains, as it was a rubbish week across the rest of the portfolio. The best three weeks ever have all been in the last 3 weeks, with this week being 2nd only to the £32k rise 3 weeks ago. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by a whopping £22,336 to £60,891 and total portfolio value climbed to £125,694, which is £72k more than it was 3 weeks ago.

There were only 2 really bad performers this week, with both EDV:Endeavour Mining and III:3i Group falling 6%. Both were some of my best performing shares, so it's a bit of a concern. III is still 16% in profit despite the drop, but EDV is now at a loss of 13%. I'm tempted to switch my monthly investment to there next week after my last ANTO:Antofagasta purchase takes me to £1,000. My gold exposure isn't as much as I'd like it to be, but there are few quality shares available, and EDV is one of them.

POLY:Polymetal ceased trading on LSE so I checked out the price on AIX where it's currently suspended while the paperwork goes through, and happy to say the $3.76 on there was worth 295p when I updated the spreadsheet, which is 9% higher. It's academic because I can't sell them until they re-list on LSE, which I'm hoping they will do after selling their Russian assets. Meanwhile I'll enjoy the dividend.

Share of the Week for a 3rd week in a row is OPTI:Optibiotix which climbed 11% of purchase price in my 90p holding, but a spectacular 98% in my 9.55p holding to go 282% up. My potential profit from OPTI is now £11,868, but my more expensive holdings are still making a loss of £39,335 so still £27,467 down, but that's a lot more healthy than 3 weeks ago.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 1 of year 9.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£263.69		+£21.25
Portfolio cost	£87,854.54		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£56,064.97	(-36.2%)	+£10,347.06
Potential profits	£4,930.76		+£2,282.86
Yr 9 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit	-£16.26	(-0.3%)	-£16.26
Total Dividends	£11,911.43		+£0
Total Interest	£1.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,298.53		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£299.59	(6.0%)	-£0.76
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	48%		+0%

Cash went up £21 as I added my feeble £25 premium bond win, but lost £3.75 monthly charges.

Portfolio value up a magnificent £10k and potential profits up £2,282, which is all OPTI:Optibiotix, as my only other profitable share GAW:Games Workshop dropped 4%.

This is the first week of year 9 and unfortunate there was immediately a monthly charge to drag down the projected monthly profit to -£16. Long term profit from sales and dividends is still 6% but there's no sign of selling opportunities in the near future.

Almost up to the injection line, but not quite.

If we stay up here then the trend line will soon be flat

The SIPP looks like this after week 401 overall and week 37 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£384.37		+£233.34
Portfolio cost	£96,015.54		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£67,561.86	(-29.6%)	+£12,026.69
Potential profits	£7,344.90		+£3,248.54
Yr 8 Dividends	£239.37		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£3.82		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£9,597.85		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	-£1,107.94	(-20.3%)	+£28.77
Total Dividends	£14,382.15		+£0
Total Interest	£4.07		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£10,835.90		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£260.65	(4.8%)	-£0.83
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	37%		+0%

I added £250 cash ready for my monthly investment, but paid monthly fees so cash only up £233. Portfolio value up a pleasing £12k and potential profits up £3,248, again all thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix as III:3i Group dropped 6% and ANTO:Antofagasta was flat.

Such a relief seeing this one above the injection line, probably due to a higher number of sensible shares in the portfolio.

Another trend line that will hopefully soon flatten out.

The trading account looks like this after week 367 overall and week 3 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£273.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,794.51		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,146.23	(-36.1%)	-£37.21
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 8 Interest	£0		+£0
Year 8 Profit	£283.99		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	£410.20	(+274.3%)	-£205.10
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.03		+£0
Profit from sales	-£646.70		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£6.93	(-4.6%)	+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The curse of the trading account strikes again, with all shares dropping in value. I'm very, very bad at this.

Slight dip and a hell of a long way to go to turn this mess around. I'd like to think having a small amount in this account is a good lesson in what not to do in my other accounts where this performance would be much more damaging.

Just above the trend line, which given it still points upwards has to be a good thing.

So, after three absolutely amazing weeks what's going to happen next? Given OPTI:Optibiotix has spun out PBX:Probiotix at 21p, then that puts our current share price at the equivalent of 58p prior to the spin-off, which seems fair for where we're at. The main problem is PBX having dropped to 6p, so I would be happy for OPTI to trade in the 30's for a while if PBX could gain some lost ground.

Clearly any positive news on Sweetbiotix or the microbiome modulators could see a re-rate for OPTI, but the risk is new and returning investors get bored and we start drifting downwards again. I really hope we're past that and in more positive territory now, as getting the portfolio value back above £125k has boosted my morale considerably.

Meanwhile my main poor performer is now JLP:Jubilee Metals. I invested £14,335 when I thought the warrant selling had stopped, as I expected a re-rate from 12p to 20p. Instead I got a re-rate from 12p to 7p which is an absolute disaster. 136,582 shares is almost back to what I had last time I took a big position in JLP. At this level I'm very tempted to find a way to buy more, as the copper price is climbing and JLP are producing more and more every week. Work on their northern expansion in Zambia is about to get started, which will see a significant increase in the ability to produce copper, a metal that is going to come under increasing demand. I think I want to buy some more!