Sunday 27 January 2019

Week 181 Review - Great gains all around

The wider portfolio had a really good week, with encouraging gains in many holdings that have been suffering lately. OPTI:Optibiotix was up 4p too, which contributed £3,200 to the £3,667 rise. This puts the buffer between value and cost at £7,664 and the total portfolio value at £104,967.

Biggest loser was BLU:Blue Star Capital which has been suspended for the last six months as it attempted a reverse takeover of Satoshipay. Unfortunately they couldn't raise enough funds to do the deal so it's been suspended and the shares suffered accordingly, with a 12% fall. These were only a small "toe in the water" purchase, and it's a good job because not only have they failed in this transaction, but Satoshipay are failing to get any major publishers interested in their micro payment system, so this could easily go pop.

CAML:Central Asia Metals tried its best to spoil the party this week, with a 6% fall being quite expensive and preventing paper profits being anywhere near what they could have been. I wish the China standoff would sort itself out so base metal prices can start rising again, but there's no sign of that. I am about to get £1,000 pension transfer though, so will be taking advantage of the low price to top up.

MMX:Minds + Machines dropped 6% and keep slipping, and I guess will continue until they release some financial results from the new enlarged company. I'm reasonably confident that these results will be good and the price will soar, but not confident enough to invest any more money in them.

Those were the big losers. There were far more big risers.

OPTI:Optibiotix recovered the 4p they lost last week to climb 6% and go back to 90p. News has to be close now, and I have a feeling the next one could be mega, as there are so many coals in the fire. Could it be the retail contract? Could it be a Sweetbiotix deal? Could it be the Tata announcement? Will there be a trading statement? So much excitement!

IQE:IQE are marching upwards, and climbed another 7% this week. It's possible the shorters are gradually closing their positions. If I was feeling brave I'd buy some, but I think CAML:Central Asia Metals is a better bet at the moment.

TAP:Taptica are slowly recovering from their recent unjustified hammering. This week they are up 7% but are still 47% down overall.

N4P:N4 Pharma are also attracting more interest now their Nuvec product is being developed. An 8% climb this week leaves them only 44% down, which is 20% better than after the initial crash when the Viagra replacement didn't work.

PAF:Pan African Resources issued a superb trading statement and I was surprised they only climbed 11%. This has been a good slow steady climb though, leaving them 31% up and with paper profit of £450.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics have also been improving gradually. My ISA holding climbed by 12% and my SIPP by 14% leaving my ISA down by 19% and my SIPP up by 23%. My target for selling the SIPP holding is 20p, after which I'll sell and hope for a dip. Meanwhile I'll keep the ISA holding until 25p and do the same. The ultimate aim is to increase the number of shares I hold until I get to the stage where I just keep them.

Share of the Week is IKA:Ilika which I think benefited from an article in II which recommended them, along with MTFB:Motif Bio and OPTI:Optibiotix. The other two didn't respond as dramatically as IKA:Ilika, which climbed 20%. Not great news though, as my holding is still down by 42% and needs a lot more good news before I can ditch them.




Back to where we were two weeks ago.




The portfolio seems to have hit a point of resistance at around £7,000 in profit.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios performance



Weekly Change
Cash £42.91
+£0
Portfolio cost £56,971.94
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £60,593.10 (6.4%) +£2,174.89
Potential profits £12,530.34
+£1,992.85
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £147.77 (3.1%) -£6.16
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £494.18 (10.4%) -£2.74
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The increase in profit is all from OPTI:Optibiotix, with MTFB:Motif Bio robbing a bit of that, and around £180 reduction in losses from the other shares. Slow and steady!




Bouncing along just the right side of the line.




Still an upward trend but still only just the right side of £0. Much better picture than the first half of 2018 though.

The SIPP looks like this after week 165



Weekly Change
Cash £122.84
+£0
Portfolio cost £37,825.18
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £42,774.01 (13.1%) +£1,451.82
Potential profits £8,609.27
+£1,220.99
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.04
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit -£15.00 (-0.5%) +£1.88
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.07
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £303.96 (9.6%) -£1.86
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Similar story to the other account, although a much wider contribution to increased profits, and a bigger dent in them from the drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals. Losses were reduced by around £230 which is good news. LLOY:Lloyds is only 4% under now, and if that can get into profit then 6 out of the 11 shares will be in profit, and it's been a while since I could say more than half in the portfolio was in the black. Compare that to the ISA and share accounts where only 2 out of 17 are in profit.

Hopefully I'll be adding another £1,000 next week, but that will increase the cost and lower the average performance rating, already below 10% since the big injection before Christmas. The desire to sell something and get back above 10% is growing, and I'm still targeting SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics to do that. Potential profit is currently £225 which would lift me from 9.6% to 9.8% so it's not enough. 20p would get £487 profit, which would take me to exactly 10%. It would only stay above target for a week though.




Looking mighty fine.




The buffer is £5,000 which is encouraging. The worry is that this will drop if I sell something.

Here's the trading account after week 131



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,415.58 (-39%) +£40.92
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £31.20 (16.1%) -£1.20
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.52 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A good increase of £40, but last week's drop was £45 so this is still going backwards. Most frustrating that the big loser this week was CAML:Central Asia Metals, which is the one that looked closest to going into profit. It's now 11% down and looking far away from providing any income. It's a good job the £2,000 I borrowed to start this was interest free, as I'm not making any sort of return on it.




Actually, I think the last 6 weeks have seen a slight increase - could there be hope?




Maybe just a fools hope...

I haven't a clue what's likely to happen next week. If the £1,000 turns up then at the moment it's going on CAML:Central Asia Metals, especially if it drops lower. If it spikes upwards I'll have to re-think. Contenders are CEY:Centamin as it's still under-valued, IQE:IQE as I would have considered 75p ludicrously cheap 6 months ago, PRU:Prudential because I've wanted to start building a position there for years and I saw loads of evidence of their presence on a recent trip to Vietnam, or LLOY:Lloyds as they are slowly sneaking up and PPI is a thing of the past suggesting a return to healthy dividends - but what of the Brexit bogey?

Saturday 19 January 2019

Week 180 Review - The 2019 good times grind to a halt

The positive start to 2019 lasted just 2 weeks. Bugger! The combined portfolios dropped by £3,213 and pretty much all of that was down to a 4p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix. The buffer between value and cost was reduced to £3,996 and total value down to £101,299.

Worst performer was TAP:Taptica dropping 13%, making me really glad I didn't invest any more thinking it had reached a bottom. The suspension of the share buy back scheme is a real worry, although in theory the reasons are good as they claim to have a potential acquisition. However why announce the buy-back in the first place? I'm glad it's just my cursed trading account and really annoyed I didn't take £100 profit when I had the chance.

OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 4p which is 6% and £3,200. There was no news this week, but that usually sees an increase. Some new trolls have appeared on the bulletin board so it's possible traders are targeting it to try and get the price down. Presumably they took their profits at 90p and want back in!

CEY:Centamin dropped 5% this week which is a surprise given that the price of gold is doing much better.

IKA:Ilika gave quite an upbeat statement today which fired a glimmer of hope they may be able to commercialise something after all. The share price is up 5% on the week, but still 62% down from when I bought them.

LLOY:Lloyds Bank are creeping back towards profit, climbing 5% this week and are only 5% down overall. I'll be getting another £1,000 from my SIPP in a few weeks so may put it here.

N4P:N4 Pharma wins Share of the Week with a 7% climb. No particular reason I can see, and a long long way before I recover my 52% loss.




All last week's gains have gone. Note I've removed the trend line as it doesn't really give a true reflection when the increase in cost isn't taken into account. That's now covered by the chart below.




So frustrating that there was such a big spike 5 months ago and it lasted such a short time. Now only just in the black but the trend line is still pointing up, and that's based on the difference between cost and value so doesn't artificially increase as the costs go up from buying more.

Here's the performance of the ISA and share accounts



Weekly Change
Cash £42.91
+£0
Portfolio cost £56,971.94
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £58,418.21 (2.5%) -£2,003.29
Potential profits £10,537.49
-£2,013.51
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £153.93 (3.2%) -£6.69
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £496.92 (10.5%) -£2.78
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

All losses down to reduced profit, and most of that was OPTI:Optibiotix with a small positive contribution from MTFB:Motif Bio which climbed 1%.




Still in the black but only just.




The trend line is still improving, but when the earlier lows get nudged off the left hand side of the chart, we're in for a severe reversal if the current buffer can't get back to £20K.

Here's the SIPP after week 164



Weekly Change
Cash £122.84
+£0
Portfolio cost £37,825.18
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £41,322.19 (9.2%) -£1,166.94
Potential profits £7,388.28
-£1,342.13
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.04
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit -£16.88 (-0.5%) +£2.41
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.07
+£0.03
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £305.82 (9.7%) -£1.87
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Similar story to the other account, but this time the rest of the portfolio fought back and managed to improve the losses by about £180. I really need to clock up some realised profit so the average can get back above 10%. For that I need some good news from SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics as that's the best candidate for a sale. The current £37 paper profit isn't going to help my stats much though.




Looking much better than the other accounts




Still have the big spike in the middle which could disrupt the trend line later.

Here's the trading account after week 130



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,374.66 (-40.8%) -£43.75
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £32.40 (16.7%) -£1.29
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.53 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

IQE:IQE helped limit the losses from other dips, as this account continues to disappoint horribly.




Still no prospect of moving the orange line down to £0.




Desperate.

That's it for this week - and finished just in time for the footie!

Sunday 13 January 2019

Week 179 Review - Mostly good week

Quite a few stocks did well this week and pushed up the portfolio value by £1,791. Only £800 of this was OPTI:Optibiotix, so it was a really good week elsewhere. The buffer between value and cost is now £7,210 and the total portfolio value is £104,513.

Only one big loser this week, and it was TEK:Tekcapital dropping 6% and reversing most of last week's 9% climb.

TAP:Taptica seems to be recovering slowly, and gained 5% this week but is still 36% down in the trading account.

TLOU:Tlou Energy had another great recovery week, climbing 12% after a 7% rise last week. Hopefully this means news is coming. This one is still 36% down and losing £988 so it would do the power of good for it to climb steadily.

CAML:Central Asia Metals had a brilliant week, climbing 13% and going to 27% profit of £1,507. I won't be top slicing any this time around - I'm holding for the huge dividends and I think the price could easily double for my best-run company.

Share of the Week is MTFB:Motif Bio which climbed 7% last week and the week before, but this week climbed 26% to go from a 6% loss to a 20% potential profit of £678. Clearly this is in anticipation of the FDA decision on iclaprim. Most folk seem optimistic of success. I hope so after the problems I've had with other junior pharmas!




Slowly slowly catchy monkey.

Here's the new performance chart showing difference between value and cost over the last 12 months




A nice upward trend line

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £42.91
-£3.75
Portfolio cost £56,971.94
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £60,421.50 (6.1%) +£1,791.21
Potential profits £12,551.00
+£1,184.07
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £160.62 (3.4%) -£8.04
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £499.70 (10.5%) -£2.90
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Cash dropped from monthly fee, but £1,184 increased potential profits was great, with OPTI:Optibiotix and MTFB:Motif Bio contributing a similar amount. £600 was wiped off paper losses too, split mostly between MTFB:Motif Bio and TLOU:Tlou Energy.




Still a bit perilous.




Debut for the performance chart and it's going in the right direction

The SIPP looks like this after week 163



Weekly Change
Cash £122.84
-£16.08
Portfolio cost £37,825.18
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £42,489.13 (9.8%) +£1,081.43
Potential profits £8,730.41
+£1,056.76
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.04
+£0.03
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit -£19.29 (-0.6%) -£8.40
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.07
+£0.03
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £307.69 (9.8%) -£2.95
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Monthly fees have gone up now the portfolio is bigger. This is hammering the average monthly performance for year 4 until I make a sale. Long term average is still below target too so I need SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics to spike so I can do some trading with them. Meanwhile potential profits are up over £1,000 thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and CAML:Central Asia Metals, with a tiny amount of reduced loss thrown in for good measure.




Excellent looking gap forming.




Similar steepness of trend line to the ISA and share accounts.

The trading account looks like this after week 129



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,418.41 (-38.9%) +£54.09
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £33.69 (17.4%) -£1.41
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.54 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Best week for a while mostly thanks to CAML:Central Asia Metals, which climbed 10% in this account and is now only £28 (6%) down. I may get to sell them soon and see if I can do a better job of my next trading attempt. Any profit will be removed from the account as I attempt to draw down the original injection




I do believe it's turning round!




Not enough of a turnaround to affect the dismal performance chart.

That's it for week 2 of 2019 and we're still gaining each week of the year. Let's see how many weeks we can go before suffering the first loss.

Saturday 5 January 2019

Week 178 Review - Flat start to 2019

2019 started off very flat. OPTI:Optibiotix tried to make me finish in the red by dropping 1p, but the rest of the portfolio rallied around and made up the deficit, resulting in a gain of £211. That's just over £1,000 given the OPTI:Optibiotix drop would have cost £800. This leaves the buffer between value and cost at £4,283 and overall portfolio value of £101,606.

There was only one poor performer this week, with IQE:IQE dropping another 5% to extend the misery and go 56% down on purchase price. Thank goodness I sold out the majority of my holding for thousands of profit when I did!

A great run of climbers this week, and there had to be to offset the £800 drop in OPTI:Optibiotix. First winner was MTFB:Motif Bio, climbing 7% for the second week in a row. People are smelling FDA decision and getting excited. It's a shit or bust share!

Another 7% riser was TLOU:Tlou Energy. This is still 48% down and the only reason I haven't topped up is fear that they will sell the company before producing any gas or building any power stations - oh - and my decision that I really shouldn't be investing in fossil fuels on conservation grounds. My ethics don't include taking a loss though, so I'm sticking with them for now.

TEK:Tekcapital managed a 9% climb this week, which is a surprise as they are showing no signs of ever making a profit. They are 53% down so still no chance of getting rid unless I take a big hit.

Not surprisingly my two best performers this week were gold miners. PAF:Pan African Resources went up 10% and are now up by 22% altogether, with £310 paper profits. I'm sure it won't be too long before a production update from their new project, and then these should double.

Share of the Week goes to CEY:Centamin as it starts what I hope is a significant recovery. My ISA holding climbed 10% on purchase price, but with my SIPP holding being significantly cheaper to buy, that climbed 13%. The ISA is only down £86 now, whereas the SIPP is up by £335 so this is in profit and has dished out £23 dividends. I can see no reason why it won't return in the short term to the price it enjoyed before hitting the poor grade seam. That will see it go from 121p to 163p and the PE ratio should climb to a more sensible figure than the current 8. I'll continue to hold for the dividend and as part of my gold hedge.




Flat for a few weeks now - quite a relief after recent volatility.

Here's the ISA and share accounts



Weekly Change
Cash £46.66
+£0
Portfolio cost £56,971.94
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £58,630.29 (2.9%) +£141.05
Potential profits £11,366.93
-£505.96
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £168.66 (3.6%) -£8.03
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £502.60 (10.6%) -£2.84
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

OPTI:Optibiotix is the only thing in profit, so the £505 drop was down to the 1p fall there. Fortunately the rest of the portfolio fought back, made up the loss and also added £141. Well done chaps!




Way too close to the line for comfort, but on the right side.

Here's the SIPP after week 162



Weekly Change
Cash £138.92
+£0
Portfolio cost £37,825.18
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £41,407.70 (9.5%) +£52.88
Potential profits £7,673.65
+£73.68
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.01
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit -£10.89 (-0.3%) +£2.17
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.04
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £310.64 (9.8%) -£1.93
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

This portfolio did even better to remove the OPTI:Optibiotix drop, as that would have chopped around £300 off potential profits, but they are up by £73 mainly thanks to the gold miners. A few deepening losses mean the overall value only climbed by £52 which is as flat as this account has been for a long time.




Still a nice gap on this one. I'm anticipating the red line will go up in steps by £1,000 every 2 months as I transfer out of my work pension into here. I've made so much more since doing the transfer than I did with their rubbish funds.

Here's the trading performance



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,364.32 (-41.2%) +£17.74
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £35.10 (18.1%) -£1.52
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.55 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Any week this goes up is a massive bonus. Unfortunately four out of the five shares in the account are around 50% down, and the fifth is 16% down, but that's CAML:Central Asia Metals and is showing signs of recovery. I'm so desperate to make £65 profit on a sale so I can get in the black, but it's looking a long way off. Why oh why didn't I sell TAP:Taptica and pocket £100 profit when I had the chance? LION:Lionsgold is making noise about re-listing soon, so that may be the best bet if there's a re-listing spike.




I don't know why I have a trendline on here - it's completely flawed given the amount I've injected. I'd be better having a trend line representing the difference between cost and value - now there's a thought!




I hate what I'm seeing, but I really like the chart! So next week I'll introduce this chart for each account and we'll see how the paper profits are looking. Here we see that the account was briefly in profit for about 4 weeks and is now in a pitiful state.

At least 2019 started off positively - if only just. Let's see how long we can keep the positive weeks going - one week and counting!