Week 381 Review - Best week for a while as Optibiotix improves but flat elsewhere

Generally a very quiet week, but a 3p rally in OPTI:Optibiotix saw the deficit between cost and value narrow by £6,719 to £100,498 and portfolio value increase to £82,273. Best week for quite a while.

CEY:Centamin has been on a slow and steady recovery, rising another 5% this week to go just 9% down. It's only 1% down if you include dividends. It's trading at a healthy P/E ratio for a miner, a trend they need to continue if I'm ever going to get in profit. The next review date isn't until June so I'll keep them for a while yet.

The only other big mover was OPTI:Optibiotix, which gets Share of the Week. They climbed 5% in my main accounts, but an amazing 16% in my trading holdings. The trading shares are in profit, but my main holding is still 64% down.

Last week's loss has been fully recovered plus a bit more. Hope is re-kindled.

Starting to pull that trend line flatter

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 17 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£52.68		+£0
Portfolio cost	£82,003.25		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£33,072.27	(-59.7%)	+£3,140.53
Potential profits	£156.12		+£156.12
Yr 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£995.63		+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit	-£256.65	(-6.9%)	+£16.04
Total Dividends	£11,768.92		+£0
Total Interest	£0.03		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,098.43		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£439.37	(11.9%)	-£1.16
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	87%		+0%

Big increase in value, and much joy as my short-term pot of OPTI:Optibiotix goes into £156 profit.

If I'm to make up the £995 loss for year 8 sales I need OPTI to get to 30p from its current 21p. I think that's achievable, and so my target price to sell the trading pot. This is money from selling JLP:Jubilee Metals, which I still hope to buy back in January when the pesky warrant holder has finished offloading shares and dragging the share price down.

Highest we've been in a few months, but a long way to go just to cross the injection line.

Getting back above the £40k loss line will be a big boost to the morale. Might take a while though.

The SIPP looks like this after week 365 overall and week 1 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£94.94		+£32.50
Portfolio cost	£98,772.58		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£48,283.87	(-51.1%)	+£3,505.23
Potential profits	£632.76		+£76.59
Yr 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Total Dividends	£14,142.78		+£0
Total Interest	£0.25		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,433.75		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£398.67	(8.1%)	-£1.10
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Cash went up thanks to a tax rebate. Big increase in value from OPTI:Optibiotix, and potential profits up but not by as much as they dropped last week. Year 8 starting means all year stats re-set to zero.

Closer to the injection line than the ISA

Very similar to the ISA, with almost identical amount of loss, due to almost identical number of OPTI:Optibiotix shares!

The trading account looks like this after week 331 overall and week 19 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£0.10		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,849.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£769.96	(-58.4%)	+£74.07
Potential profits	£23.26		+£23.26
Year 7 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Interests	£0.01		+£0
Year 7 Profit	-£71.73		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	-£16.36	(-10.6%)	+£0.91
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.01		+£0
Profit from sales	£154.87		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£2.81	(1.8%)	-£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The biggest rise for a long time, with OPTI:Optibiotix rising £74 and going £23 into profit. I need to make more than £71 profit to get year 7 back into the black, which needs OPTI to get to 23p from the current 21p. I may give it a wee bit longer than that, maybe to at least 25p.

Still doesn't look very good.

That doesn't look too good either. Maybe I should be waiting a bit longer before I sell, although when I do this chart will look dreadful.

Seems like ages since I felt good writing the blog. Having said that, 3p is a pretty dismal rise compared to the old days when OPTI:Optibiotix could easily do 15p in a week. In those days it meant over £10k increase in value, but these days it would be around £35k which would smash my record for best week. I'm still optimistic I could be writing about such a week in the not too distant future.

Week 380 Review - Nearly everything down and most of last week's gains lost

Not a good week. Virtually everything is down and all my recent OPTI:Optibiotix gains were lost, with the 1.5p drop costing £3,000 of this week's £3,602 worsening of the deficit between cost and value. The deficit now stands at £107,218 and portfolio value is down to £75,521.

OPTI:Optibiotix Health was the worst performer in my trading account, dropping 8%, but it only dropped 3% in my main holdings.

AJB:AJ Bell has been on a great run lately but people took their profits this week and it dropped 6%. If I stick to my new rules I need to sell if it drops another 4%.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics also dropped 6% but the time passed long ago that I could sell without incurring massive loss, so the wait continues

Share of the week only climbed a feeble 2%, but it was better than anything else as TRX:Tissue Regenix crept up and is now only 56% down. I think there is a glimmer of hope this could become profitable, if they can get their product in wider use.

I didn't lose all of last week's gains, but nearly.

Still above the trend line but running parallel to it

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 16 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£52.68		+£0.01
Portfolio cost	£82,003.25		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£29,931.74	(-63.5%)	-£1,657.61
Potential profits	£0		-£14.74
Yr 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£0.03		+£0.01
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£995.63		+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit	-£272.69	(-7.4%)	+£18.18
Total Dividends	£11,768.92		+£0
Total Interest	£0.03		+£0.01
Total Profit from sales	£27,098.43		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£439.37	(11.9%)	-£1.16
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	87%		+0%

1p interest - yippee! I lost more than last week's gains in this account, which is terribly vexing.

Back close to the 12 month low

I seem to have a magnetic attraction to the trend line when it points downwards

The SIPP looks like this after week 364 overall and week 52 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£62.44		+£25.82
Portfolio cost	£98,772.58		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£44,778.64	(-54.7%)	-£1,907.55
Potential profits	£556.17		-£157.37
Yr 7 Dividends	£10,938.39		+£26.52
Yr 7 Interest	£0.05		+£0.04
Yr 7 Profit from sales	-£3,290.88		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£622.78	(12.6%)	-£10.02
Total Dividends	£14,142.78		+£26.52
Total Interest	£0.25		+£0.04
Total Profit from sales	£20,433.75		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£399.77	(8.1%)	-£0.79
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	57%		+0%

I got a nice dividend of £26 from PLUS:Plus500 and a magnificent 4p interest, but paid 74p fees for my AJ Bell SIPP so cash only up £25.The drop in portfolio value was around £500 less than the gains last week, so the SIPP fared much better than the ISA.

The end of Year 7 saw an overall loss of £3,290 from sales, mostly from writing off IQE:IQE, HUM:Hummingbird Resources and getting out of methane-producing TLOU:Tlou Energy. My magic formula shares were a lot less kind to me in year 7, about half of them going for a loss, and the PBX:Probiotix shares dividend inflated the dividend figure, but it was still £494 without that, which wasn't bad.

This one is much closer to the injection line, which gives me hope.

This chart gives me less hope.

The trading account looks like this after week 330 overall and week 18 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£0.10		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,849.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£695.89	(-62.4%)	-£37.03
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Interests	£0.01		+£0
Year 7 Profit	-£71.73		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	-£17.27	(-11.2%)	+£1.01
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.01		+£0
Profit from sales	£154.87		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£2.82	(1.8%)	-£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

All last week's gains in OPTI:Optibiotix vanished when there was no RNS before the Investor Meet presentation, thus signaling nothing material was going to be announced, and it wasn't. I think it could easily be next summer before anything happens to kick start these, so the curse of the trading account strikes again.

Bad

Still just above the line - a positive end

The one interesting thing in the OPTI:Optibiotix presentation was confirmation that 3 of the 11 companies we've been working with on developing Sweetbiotix are Coca Cola, Nestle and Kellogg's. That gives me a huge amount of hope that if something does finally happen, it's going to be worth waiting for.

Week 379 Review - More gains across the portfolio

A second good week in a row, with the deficit between cost and value reducing by £4,097 to £103,616 and portfolio value increasing to £79,008. It would be a big morale boost so get the deficit below £100k, although not as much of a morale boost as crossing the injection line or getting portfolio value back over £100k.

For the second week in a row there were no big losers.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics climbed 5% and is now 49% down so I only need 100% increase from here to break even.

IGG:IG Group has finally got above the 800p barrier by climbing 6% and is just 7% down, and I'm happy to say is 1% up if you include the dividends.

AJB:AJ Bell has been on a mega roll lately and climbed another 8% this week to go 17% up and making potential profit of £170. My 12 month review date isn't until July 2023 but I've set a flag at 7% so if it drops more than 10% from here I will sell. I'll maintain that virtual trailing stop-loss at 10% if it goes any higher.

FXPO:Ferrexpo also climbed 8%. This one desperately needs the war in Ukraine to be over, after which it should recover, but is still 68% down.

OPTI:Optibiotix went up 1.5p which accounts for £3,000 of the gains. For my main holding that's only 3%, but for my short term holding it's 8%, and I'm delirious to say that this holding is in profit!

CEY:Centamin has been staging a major recovery lately and is up by 9% this week and is only 11% down now. With dividends it's only 4% down so may even get profitable soon.

Share of the Week is CAML:Central Asia Metals which went up by 10% just after I increased my holding by 30%. Normally my timing is rubbish, but this time it worked out, and my holding is making £378 profit and is 11% up, or 16% if you include the dividend.

I so hope this continues, as the last 12 months have been really bad.

Above the trend line, but not that far above.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 15 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£52.67		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£82,003.25		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£31,589.35	(-61.5%)	+£1,646.58
Potential profits	£14.74		+£14.74
Yr 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£0.02		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£995.63		+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit	-£290.87	(-7.9%)	+£20.78
Total Dividends	£11,768.92		+£0
Total Interest	£0.02		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,098.43		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£440.53	(11.9%)	-£1.17
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	87%		+0%

Cash dropped thanks to monthly fees, and value up by £1,646, but most exciting of all is the £14 potential profit thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and the fact I didn't add the shares I bought with my JLP:Jubilee Metals profits to my main holding but kept them separate to sell when I want to buy back into JLP.

At the moment there is still a big JLP seller, which I suspect is someone with warrants. Unfortunately there are 63 million warrants at around 3p outstanding that expire in January 2023, so I suspect they will be exercised and most likely sold at the current 11p+ for instant 300% profit. If that happens I'll wait until after they are sold to buy back, as the share price may wait until then to re-rate.

It's a very gradual climb - and very slow.

Still above the trend line but £30k below where it was a year ago.

The SIPP looks like this after week 363 overall and week 51 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£36.62		+£5.78
Portfolio cost	£98,772.58		+£124.22
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£46,686.19	(-52.7%)	+£2,414.11
Potential profits	£713.54		+£434.89
Yr 7 Dividends	£10,911.87		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0.01		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	-£3,290.88		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£632.80	(12.8%)	-£12.66
Total Dividends	£14,116.26		+£0
Total Interest	£0.21		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,433.75		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£400.56	(8.1%)	-£1.11
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Next week sees the completion of year 7 of the SIPP, so I'll review the annual performance then. My £130 monthly savings went in and I bought 57 shares in EMG:Man Group at 215.3p costing £124.22. The cash went up by the left-over £5.78. I now hold 371 shares at an average of 236.79p and costing £894.45, so one more month savings will take me to £1,000 and I can find a new magic formula share to invest in monthly. It's a nice way to build a stake in a company.

Potential profits are up an impressive £434 after big rises for AJB:AJ Bell and CAML:Central Asia Metals. PLUS:Plus500 climbed less than a percent but also contributed to the rise.

This is actually getting reasonably close to the injection line.

As with the ISA, we're above the trend line but over £30k down on last year.

The trading account looks like this after week 329 overall and week 17 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£0.10		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,849.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£732.92	(-60.4%)	+£37.03
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Interests	£0.01		+£0
Year 7 Profit	-£71.73		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	-£18.28	(-11.9%)	+£1.15
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.01		+£0
Profit from sales	£154.87		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£2.83	(1.8%)	-£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

OPTI:Optibiotix is the only share not suspended and went up this week to give a £37 increase. It's still 3% down but only needs 1p to get into profit. I have owned OPTI once before in this account and made £65 profit so I hope to better that. I need to make £900 to get back level to my injection amount after recent losses, and have to assume that my currently suspended shares will never come back. This account really has been a disaster.

Slow and steady - but very, very slow.

Just staying above the upward pointing trend line.

There's an OPTI:Optibiotix Investor Meet presentation on Thursday, so a great deal of hope that we will get a commercial update RNS some time before that. I'm really nervous about what it's going to say. It needs to be positive or I'm going to be losing most of my savings for a long time to come.

Week 378 Review - At last a half decent week!

The best week for a while, with OPTI:Optibiotix gaining, CAML:Central Asia Metals returning to profit, and no big losers. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by £2,707 to £107,714 and total value increased to £74,870.

There were no big fallers this week.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed by just 1p, which in my trading account and short term ISA holding is 5%, but it's a much smaller percentage in my main holdings. The rise did account for over £2,000 of this week's gains.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics had a good week, climbing 6%, but is still 54% down so I need 100% from here to break even.

AJB:AJ Bell has been gaining steadily for weeks, and climbed another 6% this week to go 9% up.

TRX:Tissue Regenix has been surprisingly active given there has been no news, but the price went up 6%. They are still 57% down though.

Share of the Week is CAML:Central Asia Metals, which although only climbed the same 6% as the others, went back into profit and made me very happy.

The up-tick is accentuated due to a £2k pension transfer coming in. Still miles off the injection line, but we've got above it in just a few weeks twice in the last 12 months, just not for very long.

I think that's well above the trend line now - or not!

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 14 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£56.42		+£0
Portfolio cost	£82,003.25		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£29,942.77	(-63.5%)	+£1,111.81
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£0.02		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£995.63		+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit	-£311.65	(-8.4%)	+£22.72
Total Dividends	£11,768.92		+£0
Total Interest	£0.02		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,098.43		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£441.70	(11.9%)	-£1.21
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	87%		+0%

Very little happened, other than a nice increase in portfolio value.

No injections of cash here so the up-tick is all thanks to increased value. A long way to go though.

Will we stay above the trend line this time?

The SIPP looks like this after week 362 overall and week 50 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£30.84		-£118.35
Portfolio cost	£98,648.36		+£2,137.96
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£44,147.86	(-55.2%)	+£1,571.35
Potential profits	£278.65		+£114.44
Yr 7 Dividends	£10,911.87		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0.01		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	-£3,290.88		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£645.46	(13.1%)	-£14.09
Total Dividends	£14,116.26		+£0
Total Interest	£0.21		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,433.75		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£401.67	(8.1%)	-£1.23
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	57%		-2%

Cash dropped as I spent it all when the pension transfer came in. Value up nicely and potential profits up £114 thanks to AJB:AJ Bell, PLUS:Plus500 and now CAML:Central Asia Metals. Compound performance dropped because the injection amount went up £2k.

I bought 458 shares in CAML:Central Asia Metals at 218p costing £1,010.39 so very happy they closed at 228p and are already in profit. It brings my holding to 1,489 shares at an average of 222.85p costing £3,354.10. I'd like to build these back up to about £10k cost as they are a brilliant company.

I used the rest of the pension transfer and any left over cash to buy 5,909 shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at 18.88p costing £1,127.57. It takes my SIPP average price down to 52.18p so I'm still down 66%. Really hoping we get some news soon. My total holding is now 219,283 of which 15,859 are earmarked for quick profits and the rest for long term holding.

Big lurch upwards from the injection

I was about to write solidly above the trend line, but it's not really - more like only just above the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 328 overall and week 16 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£0.10		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,849.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£695.89	(-62.4%)	+£24.69
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Interests	£0.01		+£0
Year 7 Profit	-£71.73		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	-£19.43	(-12.6%)	+£1.29
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.01		+£0
Profit from sales	£154.87		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£2.84	(1.8%)	-£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

OPTI:Optibiotix went up 1p and this went up £24. Will I ever get to sell anything in this account again?

A barely perceptible rise

Staying just above the trend line which is still pointing up

Not saying any more this week as I'm really late writing up and want to save it for the current week. which is looking quite positive.