Week 229 Review - Santa stuck around

This week was almost as good as last week, with the portfolio increasing in value by £7,517. That reduces the deficit between cost and value to £19,165 and increases the overall value to £88,075. Merry Christmas!

Trading volumes must have been very low this week as everyone was bust eating mince pies. There was only one share that moved by more than 5% and it was OPTI:Optibiotix, climbing 7p which was 10% and storming to Share of the Week for the second week in a row.

Back up to where is was a few months ago. Hopefully this time it will keep going.

That should start to heave the trend line flat

Here's the ISA and share accounts performance

			Weekly Change
Cash	£15.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£45,363.65	(-21.5%)	+£4,099.70
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£37.48	(-0.8%)	+£1.88
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£404.20	(8.4%)	-£1.77
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.0%		-0.1%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

With so few movers the increased value was all down to OPTI:Optibiotix. This was helped by someone spotting an Instagram post showing a picture of Holland & Barrett's Slimbiome - confirming the first UK retail opportunity and causing a ripple of optimism. Marketing should kick in next week, so let's see what happens.

This is still closer to the injection line than the cost line, so a long way to go yet.

This should really help flatten the trend line, if it lasts.

Here's the SIPP after week 213

			Weekly Change
Cash	£90.96		+£0
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£41,309.02	(-12.1%)	+£3,404.41
Potential profits	£647.97		-£75.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£10.71	(-0.3%)	+£2.68
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.17		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£284.67	(7.3%)	-£1.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.4%		-0.1%
Compound performance	47%		+0%

Similar story to the ISA, with OPTI:Optibiotix accounting for nearly all the rise. Slight downer as the drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals reduced paper profits by £75.

Not too far from getting back into the black.

We've been here before so I'll postpone any celebrations until we go back into the black.

The trading account looks like this after week 179

		Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,247.82	(-46.2%)	+£13.35
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.49	(1.3%)	-£0.11
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.40	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Increases in IQE:IQE and TRMR:Tremor were enough to offset the drop in CAML:Cental Asia Metals and increase portfolio value by £13. Still miles away from being able to sell anything though. When I do get to sell something, I need to vow to start trading whatever I buy properly and not treat this as a normal investment account.

Still pretty desperate

Back on the trend line but not yet above it.

Here's my virtual magic formula account performance

			Weekly Change
Cash	£153.61		+£0
Portfolio cost	£29,846.39		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£31,100.73	(+4.2%)	+£145.87
Potential profits	£1,531.46		+£450.59
Year 1 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 1 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 1 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£0		+£0
Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Another good week. I've not really had time to look into any of the companies in my top 30, but it will be at least 4 months until I have any cash to start up the real shares, so plenty of time to get to know them.

There has been one change in the top 30, with BDEV:Barratt Developments dropping out and NXT:Next appearing. It appears the massive post-election spike in BDEV share price has increased the P/E ratio enough for it to no longer class as cheap. There has been no drop in NXT share price though, which has an impressive growth record, but will their return on capital hold up in their next results?

I'll stick to the rules and hold these for a full 12 months before selling anything.

I suspect next week will be another light one for trading, so not anticipating much change. If Holland & Barrett start marketing Slimbiome then we could see another tick up for OPTI:Optibiotix. I only need a 2p rise to be back in the black for this share, and every penny above that is worth £1,050. I'd be happy just to have something other than just CAML:Central Asia Metals showing green on my spreadsheet.

Week 228 Review - Santa Claus has come to town!

At last we have Christmas cheer and bucket-loads to boot. A 10p rally in OPTI:Optibiotix resulted in a rise of £10,443 in portfolio value, narrowed the deficit between cost and value to £26,682 and increased the portfolio value to £80,557. Deep joy.

No big losers this week so even more festive happiness.

IKA:Ilika climbed 7% this week but that wasn't enough to make up for the 9% drop last week. This one may yet make some money if the vehicle batteries come off, but I'm not holding out too much hope.

Share of the Week goes to OPTI:Optibiotix by a country mile, with a 16% increase being worth £10,500 and accounting for all the rise in the portfolio value. In fact there would have been a small loss without it, as many shares had small drops.

Boing!

Take that you evil trend line, and please start changing direction!

The ISA and share accounts look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£15.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£41,263.95	(-28.6%)	+£5,667.87
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£39.36	(-0.8%)	+£2.07
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£405.97	(8.4%)	-£1.79
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.1%		+0%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Not much to report apart from a stonking great recovery in value, but still a fair way to go before being in profit, and still no positive sale this year despite being nearly half way through it. I'll be needing IQE:IQE to stage a recovery in order to make some profit as that's the one earmarked for sale.

Back above the injection line, but a long way below the cost line.

It remains to be seen whether this is the start of a recovery or a temporary blip.

The SIPP looks like this after week 212

			Weekly Change
Cash	£90.96		+£0
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£37,904.61	(-19.3%)	+£4,783.69
Potential profits	£722.97		+£60.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£13.39	(-0.3%)	+£4.47
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.17		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£286.02	(7.3%)	-£1.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.5%		+0%
Compound performance	47%		+0%

Another huge leap in value thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and a small increase in potential profit thanks to CAML:Central Asia Metals. Average monthly profit for year 5 will remain negative as monthly charges are taken and until I sell something. MMX:Minds+Machines is still top candidate but needs evidence of profits and potentially a maiden dividend to convince the market that their low costs and recurring revenues have a long term future.

Back to half-way between injection and current cost

I need another 10p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix for that to get into profit, but most of the other shares are so bad at the moment it will take 10p on top of that to get back into the black.

Here's the trading account after week 178

		Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,234.47	(-46.8%)	-£7.60
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.60	(1.3%)	-£0.12
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.40	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

A small loss this week as the drop in IQE:IQE was greater than the rise in CAML:Central Asia Metals. Still no sign of being able to do anything interesting with this cursed account.

No dramas - just serial poor performance

Back below the pitiful trend line

Here's my virtual magic formula account performance

			Weekly Change
Cash	£153.61		+£0
Portfolio cost	£29,846.39		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£30,954.86	(+3.2%)	+£230.32
Potential profits	£1,080.87		+£139.41
Year 1 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 1 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 1 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£0		+£0
Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Portfolio value up by £230 and potential profits up by £139 so about half the rise is reduced losses. Best performing share is EVR:Evraz up 10.92% and worst performing is BMN:Bushveld Minerals which is down 16.57%. Only 6 of the shares are down since I bought them, and 24 are up. At the moment it's doing somewhat better than my real portfolio!

The same 30 companies are still at the top of the list, but the drop in share price has moved CAML:Central Asia Metals up to 31st and it only needs to move 6 places up the P/E ranking to enter the top 30.

KETL:Strix Group is 30th and so in most danger of falling out. At the moment my holding is making £65 (6.55%) profit. The rules of the magic formula are that you hold a share for a year before selling if it drops out of the top 30, but normally you would have bought gradually. My plan is to buy 2 every 4 months when I get my pension transfer, although I may buy some others when I sell existing holdings so I can get to 30 companies a bit quicker, as it will take 4 years at my current rate.

Meanwhile I'll be learning lots about the current top 30 with my virtual portfolio so I'll be ready to avoid any stinkers.

Week 227 Review - Christmas misery

Writing about a slump in my portfolio at Christmas seems to be an annual event. The so-called Santa rally has been a complete myth for me. This week saw lots of shares decline substantially and a drop of £2,579 in portfolio value. The gap between cost and value is now a sickening £37,126 and portfolio value has dropped to £70,114.

The biggest loser was IKA:Ilika which had seen a recent rally, but that was reversed as the price dropped 9% and is back to being 50% down. It's going to be difficult for this company to make money as they are so focused on their science, but not on selling anything.

JLP:Jubilee Metals had seen a really strong rally. In fact I nearly bought some with my pension transfer last week. I'm glad I didn't as the rally has gone into full reversal and they dropped 6% this week to go 15% down altogether.

RDT:Rosslyn Data have been stagnating for months, with the share price rarely moving. This week they gave a trading update, and that resulted in a 5% drop. I'm surprised it wasn't more, as they are showing no signs of making a profit.

TLOU:Tlou Energy is another share that I hoped was moving in the right direction, but this week dropped 5% to go 45% down. I'm hoping this was traders profit taking, as my optimism for this company hasn't been dimmed.

Only one share gained by a decent margin this week, and fortunately it was CAML:Central Asia Metals which is one of my biggest holdings. They gained 5% and so my only profitable share is up by 11% overall. If you include dividend income it's up by 36%, such is the remarkable quality of my best-run company. A worthy winner of Share of the Week.

A horrible, horrible sight. Merry Christmas!

Back below the trend line. Oh joy!

Here's my ISA and share portfolios

			Weekly Change
Cash	£15.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£35,596.08	(-38.4%)	-£1,782.89
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£41.43	(-0.9%)	+£2.30
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£407.76	(8.5%)	-£1.81
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.1%		-0.1%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Lots of reasons why the value dropped this week, with all my biggest losers coming from this account. OPTI:Optibiotix dropped another 2p and accounts for a big chunk of the fall.

Frustrating that the more excited I get about the prospects for OPTI, the further the share price falls. When the recovery comes, which it will, the rise will be shocking and immense. If I had the slightest doubt it would happen, I wouldn't keep piling in more money.

My paper loss on OPTI is now £20,045 which is terrifying. It's still by far my favourite share. Products are now being actively marketed in India. When the licence fees and royalties start coming in from those, there will be no holding us back. We haven't even started commercialising Sweetbiotix and LPGOS yet.

Maybe I'm being stupid and missing something blindingly obvious. All I can see is a company with a very low and fixed cost base, with scientifically proven products in an emerging market, with a global reach in an area of massive un-met demand, and with an income model that gets revenues from manufacturing raw ingredients, producing products containing the ingredients, and selling those products to consumers. Add to that the fact there are less than 100 million shares in circulation, and the fact we own a big chunk of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics means we can get cash whenever we need it without dilution.

Is it me? Am I missing something blindingly obvious?

Bugger - below the dreaded orange line. The worst possible metric.

The only ray of hope is that it's been worse.

The SIPP looks like this after week 211

			Weekly Change
Cash	£90.96		+£0
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£33,120.92	(-29.5%)	-£799.35
Potential profits	£662.97		+£330.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£17.86	(-0.5%)	+£8.92
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.17		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£287.37	(7.3%)	-£1.37
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.5%		-0.1%
Compound performance	47%		+0%

The drop in value from the OPTI:Optibiotix slide was mitigated by the £330 increase in potential profit for CAML:Central Asia Metals. Not much change apart from that.

This account absolutely has to stay above the injection line else I'll be devastated.

It may be above the injection line, but it's below the trend line.

The trading portfolio looks like this after 177 weeks

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,242.07	(-46.5%)	+£2.82
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.72	(1.4%)	-£0.14
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.40	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

The rise in CAML:Central Asia Metals was almost erased by drops in everything else, so still a general feeling of misery despite it being a blue week.

I was hoping the injection line would be down to zero by now, as this account was meant to be a way of making back the interest free loan I got. So far I would have been better off putting it all in a building society account.

Sneaking back towards the trend line but still below it.

I decided to try an experiment. I have recently re-read "The Little Book That Beats The Market" by Joel Greenblatt. He espouses the use of a "magic formula" to choose good companies that are selling at a cheap value. I really like his theory as it involves ranking companies and then using their relative ranking to show which companies have the best combination of those attributes.

One of the factors he ranks companies by is their earnings yield. For my purposes the P/E ratio gives us an equivalent, and is readily available.

The second factor is the return on capital. That's a harder one to find, but I decided to go for return on capital employed (ROCE), which unfortunately meant going through every company on Advfn and copying them from the financials one at a time.

I decided to use the FTSE350 and the AIM100 combined, as these are the top companies on the two markets. I copied the tickers from a website into an Excel spreadsheet and used the stocks data type to convert them to companies, and that gives me a dynamic link to all the P/E ratios.

I ranked them and then ranked the ROCE and added up the rank scores, and this was the result.

The idea is that you invest £1,000 in each of these and hold for a year and then sell. I'm not so sure about that - some companies in this state could take more than a year to turn around. I think I'd rather ensure I was buying companies that had entered the top 30, which would mean selling companies that were no longer in it but making a profit. I guess that also includes selling those no longer in the top 30 that are making a loss, as they are no longer a "good" company.

I think if this was real money I would have taken more care with the shares I bought. This list is heavily weighted towards house builders, and there are also some oil companies that I would steer clear of on environmental grounds.

However, for the purpose of this academic exercise, I set up a virtual portfolio in Advfn based on no more than £1,000 per share and £11.95 commission and will follow its progress as if it was real, with a view to using my future pension transfers to start buying these companies, but following a bit more due diligence. I may also transfer some of my existing SIPP cash into these when I sell the shares.

I bought my virtual portfolio the day before the election, so it did quite well on Friday.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£153.61		-£29,846.39
Portfolio cost	£29,846.39		+£29,846.39
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£30,724.54	(+2.9%)	+£878.15
Potential profits	£1,080.87		+£1,080.87
Year 1 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 1 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 1 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£0		+£0
Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

So it appears I'm a whizz investor when there's no real money involved!

I'll keep monitoring this and get to know the companies. I doubt I will buy my first share for another 4 months when my next transfer arrives, unless MMX:Minds+Machines gets into profit, as that was designed to be a short term holding. No chance of anything else in the SIPP being sold for some time, as they are either long term holdings or doomed.

It's interesting that CAML:Central Asia Metals is number 33 on the list, so is actually still a very good buy at these prices. One of my previous favourite holdings is JLG:John Laing Group, and they are number 41.

Week 226 Review - Average week but spoiled by Optibiotix drop

There were a few reasonable gains this week, but a 2p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix despite issuing 3 positive RNSs meant a drop of £1,962 in the difference between cost and value. The deficit between cost and value extended to £34,547 but thanks to an injection of £2,100 into my SIPP, the overall portfolio value is £72,683.

Worst performer was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which dropped 5% in my ISA. I also bought 14,249 new shares in my SIPP at 14.654p costing exactly £2,100 but these are 6% down thanks to spread and commission.

OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 2p which is only 3% but cost me £2,100 in portfolio value. The fact the value only dropped by £1,962 indicates other shares are up by about £150.

IQE:IQE went up for the second week in a row, climbing 5% in my ISA, but it's still 32% down here, 53% down in my trading account and 61% down in my SIPP so there's along way to go.

MMX:Minds + Machines had another good week, climbing 6%. This is only 10% down now, which is very good compated to the rest of my portfolio.

Share of the Week is TLOU:Tlou Energy which climbed 7%. There's still 40% to make up but I sense some momentum building here.

Eek! The injection line is trying to catch the green line!

Below the trend line - drat!

Here's the ISA and share accounts

			Weekly Change
Cash	£15.74		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£37,378.97	(-35.3%)	-£990.11
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£43.73	(-0.9%)	+£1.62
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£409.57	(8.5%)	-£1.89
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.2%		+0%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

The drop is all thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. Not much more to say other than £3.75 ISA change was paid.

Right on top of the injection line. Back in "better off under the mattress" territory.

Right on the steepening trend line

Here's the SIPP after week 210

			Weekly Change
Cash	£90.96		-£12.36
Portfolio cost	£46,995.31		+£2,100
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£33,920.27	(-27.8%)	-£1,002.44
Potential profits	£332.97		-£60.00
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£26.78	(0.7%)	-£26.78
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.17		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£288.74	(7.4%)	-£1.64
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	11.6%		-0.9%
Compound performance	47%		-3%

£12 SIPP charges reduced cash. The SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics purchase increased the portfolio value by £2,100. There was no question me buying anything else when they went below 16p which was my desired entry price.I think when the market realises the scale of the announcement of the hook-up with CRDA:Croda International then this will take off.

CAML:Central Asia Metals is the only share in profit and that dropped £60. The SIPP charges hammered my yearly performance as I haven't sold anything yet, so that's gone negative. Overall performance dropped the usual £1.60 ish, but my performance by injection suffered from the £2,100 being added and dropped 0.9%, and compound performance dropped by 3% too.

Getting much closer to the injection line.

Below the trend line again. I thought December was supposed to be a good month?

Here's the trading account after 176 weeks

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,239.25	(-46.6%)	+£29.77
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£2.86	(1.5%)	-£0.15
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.40	(-0.2%)	+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

Most stocks were slightly up, so an improvement of £29. Everything else drifting until something interesting happens.

Slight up-turn

Still below the trend line

Not writing much today as it's late on Sunday and I've been in York all weekend, which was very nice, but I'm falling asleep as I type.

Hopefully the general election won't be a complete nightmare and there's something nice to write about next week, as I'm fed up of writing doom and gloom every blog.

Week 225 Review - Promising start ends up deepening loss

The week started off quite well and was £2,000 up by Wednesday, but it didn't last and a 2p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix was enough to drag the whole portfolio down by £2,011. The deficit between cost and value widened to £32,584 and the portfolio value dropped to £72,572.

Worst performer was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which dropped 13% despite last week's great news. I think people were expecting figures to show instant profits, and the potential 2 year wait for product development has caused a big sell-off. There's one thing for sure - if it stays at 16p until my pension transfer arrives next week, I'll be putting the whole lot in here and throwing away my "dividend-paying shares only" rule before I even managed to start it.

IQE:IQE recovered 7% of its value after last week's big crash. I'm still massively under water in all my accounts and suspect I will be until 5g starts rolling out, when maybe these will start making some profit.

Share of the Week is IKA:Ilika which climbed 13%, but it's done that before and sunk again when it became clear there isn't anyone in the company with a remotely commercial brain. There's just a glimmer of hope that their joint venture with Toyota may bear some fruit, which seems to be what sparked off this rise.

That orange line has a magnetic quality about it.

Almost exactly following the trend line - downwards!

Here's the ISA and share accounts

			Weekly Change
Cash	£19.49		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£38,369.08	(-33.6%)	-£1,059.98
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£45.35	(-0.9%)	+£2.83
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£411.46	(8.5%)	-£1.84
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.2%		-0.1%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

Another drop of over £1,000 and still no shares in the black. A grim picture.

Almost back to the dreaded injection line.

Back touching the (downward pointing) trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 209 as we start year 5 and re-set the annual figures to zero.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£103.32		+£0.04
Portfolio cost	£44,895.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£32,822.71	(-26.9%)	-£952.99
Potential profits	£392.97		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.17		+£0.04
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£290.38	(7.8%)	-£1.39
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	12.5%		-0.1%
Compound performance	50%		+0%

I hadn't noticed 4p interest that arrived a few weeks ago which is why the cash and overall interest are up. It should have been included in the year 4 figures so I've left year 5 as £0. The drop was slightly less than £1,000 which is a small saving grace.

As usual this account is a little better behaved than the ISA

It may be better behaved, but it's further below the trend line.

The trading account looks like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,209.48	(-47.9%)	+£1.97
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£3.01	(1.6%)	-£0.17
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.41	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

This account is up on the week - albeit by less than £2. No real change in the figures and still no chance of selling anything.

Well below the trend line and in very poor shape.

I should get my pension transfer by the end of the week. My plans to put half in D4T4:D4T4 Solutions has been scrapped after their interim results that had some red flags. They are doing what MAIS:Maistro did and transitioning to a SaaS model, which is fair enough, but they are claiming this is a reasonable explanation for dropping H1 income by 40%. I'm all for having an H2 weighted income stream as long as H1 compares favourably with last year's H1, but a 40% drop rang enough alarm bells for me to keep watching from the sidelines.

CAML:Central Asia Metals are still low enough for me to consider buying them, and meet my new dividend paying rule. However with SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dropping to my buy target of 16p I will get those if the money comes through in time and suspend my new rule. It's more of a guideline really...

Week 224 Review - IQE crashes but portfolio almost breaks even

An almost completely flat week despite a 1p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix which was obliterated by a big crash in IQE:IQE. The portfolio value dropped by £129 which destroyed any hopes of a quick bounce after last week's disaster. The deficit between cost and value is now £30,573 and total portfolio value £74,583.

IQE:IQE gave a surprisingly negative trading statement, moving to a loss despite most of their customers showing increased profits. This caused the price to plummet by 30% in my ISA, 21% in my trading account and 17% in my SIPP. It's now losing £2,800 altogether, but I can't complain too much as I made £7,000 profit trading it a few years ago. I'm confident it will bounce back once income starts to flow from the new foundry, but it may be a long wait to get back into the black. There was sustained shorting attack again, so at some point surely they will give up and cash in their profits?

WRES:W Resources was the only other big loser, dropping 6%. It seems an odd time for them to be dropping, as production has started and revenues should soon start to flow. I think they are massively over-diluted and have crippling debts, but that's always been the case so I'm not sure why the drop this week. I only bought them with some spare dividend cash so anything positive would be a bonus and I'll get rid of them as soon as I can.

Share of the Week is MMX:Minds + Machines, which is the only share with an increase of more than 5%. They climbed 7% and are only 13% down. I still believe these are generating more cash than people realise from a very low cost base, so I'm anticipating a re-rate and a dividend before too long.

Flat isn't really good enough at the moment

At least it's snuck back onto the trend line, but it's not getting any shallower.

Here's the ISA and share account performance

			Weekly Change
Cash	£19.49		+£0
Portfolio cost	£57,768.95		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£39,429.06	(-31.7%)	-£232.80
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.63		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£-167.28		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£48.18	(-1.0%)	+£3.21
Total Dividends	£1,342.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,224.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£413.30	(8.6%)	-£1.87
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	13.3%		-0.1%
Compound performance	57%		+0%

The exposure to IQE:IQE is quite heavy in this account, so the drop exceeded the amount by which OPTI:Optibiotix climbed, but a £232 drop is pretty much flat.

Just on the right side of the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 208 and indeed at the end of year 4

			Weekly Change
Cash	£103.28		+£0
Portfolio cost	£44,895.31		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£33,775.70	(-24.8%)	+£204.03
Potential profits	£392.97		+£30.00
Yr 4 Dividends	£556.99		+£0
Yr 4 Interest	£0.10		+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales	£2,004.18		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£200.00	(5.3%)	-£3.92
Total Dividends	£1,899.24		+£0
Total Interest	£0.13		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,549.10		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£291.77	(7.8%)	-£1.41
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	12.6%		-0.1%
Compound performance	50%		+0%

Less exposure to IQE:IQE here so the rise in OPTI:Optibiotix and the rise in MMX:Minds+Machines was enough to increase portfolio value by £204. The year finished on a nice even £200 per month profit, which at 5.3% is around half my target, but better than a building society. It's also 8.6% of the total injection amount, which is a bit closer to the target. I end the year with only 7 companies in the SIPP, 3 of which are in desperate trouble and probably doomed, one of which is in short term trouble, 2 of which are almost in the black, and one is making a profit.

Although the value is better than the ISA, and the trend line in a shallower decline, this account is below the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 174

			Weekly Change
Cash	£48.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,321.29		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,207.51	(-48%)	-£100.30
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 4 Dividends	£13.20		+£0
Year 4 Profit	£0		+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit	£3.18	(1.6%)	-£0.18
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	-£64.29		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£0.41	(-0.2%)	+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	-0.2%		+0%
Compound performance	-1%		+0%

A big drop of £100 thanks to IQE:IQE and the account is in a pretty dreadful state.

Just as things were looking up, the performance is now the worst it has ever been.

The only ray of light in an otherwise fairly bleak situation is that there is now enough to apply for another transfer from my work pension to my SIPP. I've put in a transfer request for £2,100 which should arrive within the next 2 weeks. I now need to decide what to buy with it.

I suspect both SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and OPTI:Optibiotix to have recovered enough over the next 2 weeks to miss out on the opportunity to top up cheap. I'm astounded that SBTX actually dropped on the day the RNS dropped confirming their massive deal with Croda. There was a slight recovery at the end of the week, but a feeble 2% rise on such amazing news is incredible. I want to buy SBTX with the SIPP money though, after selling my last batch and ploughing it into OPTI at what I incorrectly thought was a bargain.

I'm half tempted to buy IQE:IQE if it stays down around 43p, but there is a nagging doubt that their costs will remain so high that they don't make any profit and will stay down here for a long time. It's enough of a concern to put me off, although the way I made my profit from them in the past was buying in one of their dips.

I did mention TFW:Thorpe Lighting last week as a potential re-investment. They are well run, but is there a risk with it being a family firm that they will always be in the top jobs even if not necessarily the best man for the job?

I could contemplate getting back into gold, but the price is still a little high, or top up my old faithful CAML:Central Asia Metals. I could get 500 CAML for around £1,100 and use the other £1,000 for something a tad more risky. I've been watching SKIN:Integumen for a long, long time but am still uneasy about them, but I've also been watching D4T4:D4T4 Solutions and I'm tempted to put the £1,000 there as they are increasing profits every year and increasing dividends too.

That does make me think - maybe a new rule is in order for my SIPP. I could have a rule that only buy companies that pay a regular dividend in that account. Most of my current holdings don't pay a dividend, but there's no reason why I can't introduce the rule for new shares. I think I like that idea - it will stop me going mad with startups and focus on good companies. So I'm penciling in my suggestion above of half CAML and half D4T4. Let's see if I hold to that!