Sunday 28 January 2024

Week 442 Review - At last 2024 delivers a positive week.

Some really big movers this week, with a healthy rise from OPTI:Optibiotix helping erase a disastrous drop for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by £4,455 to £92,726 and deficit between injection amount and value fell to £29.195. The total portfolio value increased to £113,082.

Biggest faller was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which dropped a massive 30% after announcing a £5m convertible loan being used to make an acquisition. The market hated this, as these loans are usually related to death spiral funding. They could have waited for income from Croda before going on a spending spree. It remains to be seen whether the acquisition is a brilliant move or could cripple the company. The market thinks the latter.

RDT:Rosslyn Data dropped 10% but is 101% down so it doesn't make any difference.

IES:Invinity Energy dropped 5%, and again it didn't make any difference as these are already down 87%.

IGG:IG Group announced lackluster interim results, but I would argue with a P/E ratio of just 8 that this is already factored into the share price. They dropped 5% and I'm hoping it was a bit of a tree shake and we'll move up next week, especially as I recently doubled my holding.

BARC:Barclays climbed 6% and is only 10% down in my trading account. Usually something horrible happens just as it looks like these are about to get into profit.

POLY:Polymetal went up 6% but are still 75% down and no sign of them selling their Russian assets.

FXPO:Ferrexpo have been climbing well since re-instating the dividend and went up another 7% this week. They are still 82% down and no hope of getting anywhere near break-even until the Ukraine war is over.

IPX:Impax Asset Management have had a shaky few weeks, but climbed 8% this week to go back into potential profit.

AJB:AJ Bell have been on a real surge, and went up 10% this week so they are back in profit and 9% up. I still have one more monthly purchase to make in a few weeks which would normally make me want the price to stay low, but it shouldn't impact my potential profits too much if I buy 25% of my holding at a higher price.

OPTI:Optibiotix went up 10% and accounted for most of the gains. It turns out they have been tipped in the top 10 penny shares at weekend so someone possibly knew it was coming and made sure the price was jacked up before Monday. Let's hope enough people decide to buy in to add a few more pence.

PAF:Pan African Resources went up 10% and my holding is teetering on the verge of profitability.

TRX:Tissue Regenix issued a good trading update and the shares duly rose by 12%. They are still 60% down but I've never given up hope of these eventually coming good.

Share of the Week for the 2nd week in a row goes to CWR:Ceres Power which climbed 17% and is now only 21% down. I certainly timed my purchase of these really badly, but glad I bought back in as I've always liked them.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 26 of year 9.

Weekly Change
Cash£142.89-£3.90
Portfolio cost£99,175.93+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£52,188.90(-47.4%)+£1,541.58
Potential profits£2,258.70+£514.73
Yr 9 Dividends£202.72+£0
Yr 9 Interest£3.29+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£31.44+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£32.52(0.6%)-£1.98
Total Dividends£12,114.15+£0
Total Interest£5.22+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,329.97+£0
Average monthly cash profit£284.60(4.8%)-£0.68
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

Half way through Year 9 and things are looking a bit troubled, with the value down 47% of the cost price. However, 6 months ago that deficit was 58% so it's not as troubled. Value went up by £1,541 and GAW:Games Workshop returned to potential profit, but most of the £514 increase is my cheap OPTI:Optibiotix holding.


Feels like we've been quite flat for a while.


Still below the trend line but at least pointing towards it.

The SIPP looks like this after week 426 overall and week 10 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£147.82
+£60.68
Portfolio cost£104,266.40
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£59,353.84(-43.1%)+£2,938.52
Potential profits£991.02
+£142.41
Yr 9 Dividends£86.79
+£0
Yr 9 Interest£1.10
+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£3,373.97
+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£1,484.27(25.8%)-£165.79
Total Dividends£14,721.67
+£0
Total Interest£7.03
+£0
Total Profit from sales£14,209.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£282.22(4.9%)-£0.68
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

A tax rebate increased cash by £60, and value went up nicely by £2,938. There are 7 holdings in potential profit and none are OPTI:Optibiotix so the £142 is spread among those. My cheapest OPTI holding is 9% down so it needs a few more good weeks before those get into profit. If I sell them I'd liberate around £1,500 and I'd almost certainly buy CAML:Central Asia Metals if I do, as it's a magic formula share and I want to significantly increase my SIPP holding.


A slightly sharper tick upwards in this account. I yearn to cross the injection line.


Not far from the trend line, but still below it.

The trading account looks like this after week 392 overall and week 28 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£141.20
+£0
Portfolio cost£1,935.11
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,108.25(-42.7%)-£24.36
Potential profits£0
+£0
Year 8 Dividends£8.56
+£0
Year 8 Interest£0
+£0
Year 8 Profit£283.99
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£45.27(+28.1%)-£1.68
Dividends£68.66
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£646.70
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£6.39(-4.0%)+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

Unlike the other accounts, this one dropped despite a great week for BARC:Barclays, as it was a bad week for JLP:Jubilee Metals and a dreadful week for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics.


Slowly sliding despite BARC:Barclays looking promising


The trend line will soon be flat.

I've watched the Investor Meet presentation for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and it has reassured me that things are on track, and that the current share price is very, very cheap. My new strategy is to go for risky shares in my ISA and so I may look at selling GAW:Games Workshop and PLUS:Plus 500 from my ISA. I also have £140 in my trading account so could add that to any SBTX purchase for a £0 rate commission, as it's in the same ISA. Assuming the SBTX price remains crippled on Monday I could get a bargain. On the other hand I could lose a load of cash. We'll soon see.

Monday 22 January 2024

Week 441 Review - Another red week despite slight Optibiotix rise

Some big drops in the portfolio this week, especially JLP:Jubilee Metals, meant a widening of the deficit between cost and value of £495 despite OPTI:Optibiotix going up 0.5p. The deficit now stands at £97,182 and drop in portfolio value to £108,570. I've introduced a new measure this week, the comparison between injection and value. That deficit now stands at £33,707.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy was the biggest faller at 21% but that hardly affected the value.

IES:Invinity Energy dropped 9% so the mini rally is well and truly over.

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped 8% and was responsible for most of my losses, but I do want to buy more.

EDV:Endeavour Mining has been a disaster lately and fell another 6% to go 31% down.

IPX:Impax Asset Management started off really well, but dropped 6% this week to go to 3% loss. So much for sensible FTSE companies being less volatile!

WHR:Warehouse REIT had a bad week, also dropping 6% to go 26% down.

CAML:Cental Asia Metals fell 5% and was another big contributor to this week's fall.

CAPD:Capital appeared to be starting to creep upwards but fell 5% to go 20% down

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics went up 7% which helped offset the drops elsewhere.

FXPO:Ferrexpo went up 10% after restoring their dividend but are still 83% down.

KIBO:Kibo Energy went up 17% but are 100% down so it made no difference

Share of the Week is CWR:Ceres Power after climbing 27% thanks to a new hydrogen contract. Unfortunately they are still 32% down from when I bought them just a few months ago. I'm hoping all the shorts have been closed and that this can start slowly recovering.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 25 of year 9.

Weekly Change
Cash £146.79 -£1.45
Portfolio cost £99,175.93 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£50,647.32 (-48.9%) -£41.65
Potential profits £1,943.97 +£89.47
Yr 9 Dividends £202.72 +£0
Yr 9 Interest £3.29 +£0.58
Yr 9 Profit from sales £31.44 +£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit £34.50 (0.6%) -£1.33
Total Dividends £12,114.15 +£0
Total Interest £5.22 +£0.58
Total Profit from sales £17,329.97 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £285.28 (4.8%) -£0.64
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 41% +0%

Cash only changed due to checking how much actual cash I have, portfolio value only dropped by £41 thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and CWR:Ceres Power, and potential profits up £89 thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix.


Pretty flat for a while now.


No longer running parallel to the trend line which is a worry.

The SIPP looks like this after week 425 overall and week 9 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash £87.14
-£500.17
Portfolio cost £104,266.40
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£56,415.32 (-45.9%) -£408.66
Potential profits £848.61
-£262.52
Yr 9 Dividends £86.79
+£0
Yr 9 Interest £1.10
+£0.16
Yr 9 Profit from sales £3,373.97
+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit £1,650.06 (28.7%) -£206.17
Total Dividends £14,721.67
+£0
Total Interest £7.03
+£0.16
Total Profit from sales £14,209.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £282.90 (4.9%) -£0.67
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 40% +0%

Cash dropped by £500 just because it appears I've forgotten to subtract my monthly investment the last 2 months. There were fewer big risers to offset the losses in this account, especially with all the magic formula shares that dropped, and most of the £262 potential profit loss was JLP:Jubilee Metals


Three weeks consecutive slide.


Going in the opposite direction to the trend line and declining for almost 6 months after that brief spike upwards.

The trading account looks like this after week 391 overall and week 27 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash £141.20
+£0
Portfolio cost £1,935.11
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,132.61 (-41.5%) -£45.21
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 8 Dividends £8.56
+£0
Year 8 Interest £0
+£0
Year 8 Profit £283.99
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit £46.95 (+29.1%) -£1.81
Dividends £68.66
+£0
Interest £0.03
+£0
Profit from sales -£646.70
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£6.41 (-4.0%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

Big drops in BARC:Barclays and JLP:Jubilee Metals slightly offset by the rise in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, but still a £45 drop in value.


Starting to lose hope.


Quite a sharp drop recently just as it looked like things were turning around.

Three weeks on the trot in the red is a pretty awful start to 2024. I was feeling optimistic in the lead up to Christmas, but back to deepest misery now.

Saturday 13 January 2024

Week 440 Review - Mixed week but Optibiotix drags the value down

A week of ups and downs, but OPTI:Optibiotix losing 0.5p dragged the portfolio down and widened the deficit between cost and value by £523 to £96,686 and dropped portfolio value to £109,567.

It's been another volatile week, with lots of big movers.

KIBO:Kibo Energy dropped 14% but it was a micro amount and didn't affect my holding, other than to make it negative as the commission is greater than the sell value.

CWR:Ceres Power has been possibly my worst ever timed investment as it dropped another 12% and is now 47% down in just a few months.

FXPO:Ferrexpo dropped 11% after a recent rally, even though the trading update wasn't bad considering they are in the middle of a war.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics rocketed last week for no reason, and so dropped 9% this week also for no reason.

EDV:Endeavour Mining fell another 7% as selling continued after they sacked their CEO last week. This is now 27% down and I'm really glad I sold my other holding a while back.

BARC:Barclays has been on a rally and looked like it might go into profit, but dropped 6% this week and is now 12% down, so back to square one.

IES:Invinity Energy also dropped 6% for no reason other than people getting bored.

There were some big gainers in my crappy companies list, but none of them made any difference. SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy went up 8% but is still 83% down, and RDT:Rosslyn Data went up an amazing 48%, but my holding is so worthless it went from -102% to -101%. BLU:Blue Star Capital went up 6% but is still 89% down.

My first proper gains this week were for GAW:Games Workshop which went into profit in both accounts I hold it by climbing 5%.

JLP:Jubilee Metals also went up 5% but needs to continue that momentum to get me into any sort of profit.

ASHM:Ashmore Group climbed 7% and is now only 20% down, so hopefully will continue to improve.

Share of the Week is PLUS:Plus 500, which had stellar results and went up 9%. That puts my SIPP holding up by 24% and my ISA is only 4% down and will hopefully soon be in profit.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 24 of year 9.

Weekly Change
Cash£148.24-£3.75
Portfolio cost£99,175.93+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£50,688.67(-48.9%)-£421.49
Potential profits£1,854.50-£86.82
Yr 9 Dividends£202.72+£0
Yr 9 Interest£2.71+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£31.44+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£35.83(0.6%)-£2.27
Total Dividends£12,114.15+£0
Total Interest£4.64+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,329.97+£0
Average monthly cash profit£285.92(4.9%)-£0.69
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

Very little to report other than monthly ISA fees dropping cash. Value didn't fall too much and potential profit hardly at all.


Not enjoying every week in 2024 being negative.


Moving away from the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 424 overall and week 8 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£587.31
-£248.98
Portfolio cost£104,266.40
+£248.75
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£56,823.98(-45.5%)-£59.83
Potential profits£1,111.13
+£344.12
Yr 9 Dividends£86.79
+£16.43
Yr 9 Interest£0.94
+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales£3,373.97
+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£1,856.23(32.3%)-£265.32
Total Dividends£14,721.67
+£16.43
Total Interest£6.87
+£0
Total Profit from sales£14,209.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£283.57(4.9%)-£0.67
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

I had a £16 dividend from III:3i Group and that was zapped by monthly £16 SIPP fee. Cash also went down thanks to my monthly investment in AJB:AJ Bell where I bought 82 shares at 300.0186p costing £248.75 with commission and stamp duty.

Potential profits actually went up by £344 thanks to big rises in PLUS:Plus500, JLP:Jubilee Metals and GAW:Games Workshop, and as none of my OPTI:Optibiotix shares in in profit in this account, I didn't lose any from the drop.


Similar story to the ISA, but that will change as I implement my different investing strategies between SIPP and ISA and only have my more risky shares in the ISA and dividend-paying shares in the SIPP - if I ever get the chance to sell my riskier shares from the SIPP.


Also moving away from the trend line in the wrong direction

The trading account looks like this after week 390 overall and week 26 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£141.20
+£0
Portfolio cost£1,935.11
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,177.82(-39.1%)-£18.08
Potential profits£0
+£0
Year 8 Dividends£8.56
+£0
Year 8 Interest£0
+£0
Year 8 Profit£283.99
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£48.76(+30.2%)-£1.95
Dividends£68.66
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£646.70
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£6.42(-4.0%)+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

The increase in JLP:Jubilee Metals wasn't enough to make up for the big drops in BARC:Barclays and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, so value went down by £18 and the chances of me ever selling anything for a profit plummeted.


Doesn't look to bad on here.


Looks worse on here.

The news hoped for from OPTI:Optibiotix never appeared, as usual. I don't know why I fall for it every time. Nothing ever happens and when it does it turns out to be utterly underwhelming. I'm losing patience at an accelerating rate.

Saturday 6 January 2024

Week 439 Review - Absolute car crash across the portfolio - Welcome to 2024!

It's going to take ages to write the intro this week as so many shares have dropped by more than 5%. In fact, given there's been no reason other than it's 2024 for most of them, I'm just going to list them.

The deficit between cost and value widened by £4,787 to £96,187 and portfolio value dropped to £110,070.

Worst performer was SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy falling 13%, but we don't care about that and it made no difference to my holding which is 84% down.

EDV:Endeavour Mining sacked their CEO and fell 10% as a result, which is about twice as much as they would have fallen if they followed the pattern of everything else

AJB:AJ Bell and FXPO:Ferrexpo both fell 8%.

IPX:Impax Asset Management fell 7% and into loss.

ASHM:Ashmore GroupBLU:Blue Star Capital, III:3i Group, JLP:Jubilee Metals, OPTI:Optibiotix and PAF:Pan African Resources all fell 6% and include some of my biggest holdings.

CAML:Cental Asia Metals, CEY:Centamin, GAW:Games Workshop and PAGE:Pagegroup all fell 5%.

RDT:Rosslyn Data climbed 8%, but my holding remains 102% down and doomed.

Share of the Week was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which bucked the trend and climbed 14% for absolutely no discernible reason. There is still no sign of any positive news and chances are they are going to issue loads of shares or borrow loads of money to acquire 2 new companies which could see them collapse. I can't understand why they don't wait for their existing products to generate revenue before they go looking for things to buy, unless they don't think their existing products will make revenue. Never mind, not complaining while they are on the up.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 23 of year 9.

Weekly Change
Cash£151.99+£0.25
Portfolio cost£99,175.93+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£51,110.46(-48.5%)-£1,958.78
Potential profits£1,941.32-£427.31
Yr 9 Dividends£202.72+£0
Yr 9 Interest£2.71+£0.25
Yr 9 Profit from sales£31.44+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£38.10(0.6%)-£1.68
Total Dividends£12,114.15+£0
Total Interest£4.64+£0.25
Total Profit from sales£17,329.97+£0
Average monthly cash profit£286.61(4.9%)-£0.65
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance41%+0%

The portfolio value actually dropped by less than it went up last week, so despite feeling bleak it could be worse. Potential profits took a hit and GAW:Games Workshop went to loss, and I had 25p interest from AJ Bell.


Not nice to see.


Now heading in entirely the opposite direction to the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 423 overall and week 7 of year 9.




Weekly Change
Cash£836.29
+£250.94
Portfolio cost£104,017.65
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£56,635.06(-45.6%)-£2,820.32
Potential profits£767.01
-£433.60
Yr 9 Dividends£70.36
+£0
Yr 9 Interest£0.94
+£0.94
Yr 9 Profit from sales£3,373.97
+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit£2,121.55(36.9%)-£352.91
Total Dividends£14,705.24
+£0
Total Interest£6.87
+£0.94
Total Profit from sales£14,209.87
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£284.24(4.9%)-£0.67
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

Cash went up as I added my monthly investment but it won't deal until next week, and also added 94p interest from AJ Bell. Portfolio value was hammered way more than it went up last week, and potential profits dived as several profitable shares went to loss.


Will we ever reach that injection line?


Very bad indeed.

The trading account looks like this after week 389 overall and week 25 of year 8.




Weekly Change
Cash£141.20
+£0
Portfolio cost£1,935.11
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£1,195.90(-38.2%)-£8.47
Potential profits£0
+£0
Year 8 Dividends£8.56
+£0
Year 8 Interest£0
+£0
Year 8 Profit£283.99
+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit£50.71(+31.4%)-£2.11
Dividends£68.66
+£0
Interest£0.03
+£0
Profit from sales-£646.70
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£6.44(-4.0%)+£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics soared, but I don't have many, and BARC:Barclays went up a bit, but with 2 lots of JLP:Jubilee Metals dropping 6%, the result was a red week, but only by £8.


Still pretty flat looking


No longer parallel with the trend line which is likely to change direction when we lose the lows from almost a year ago.

Let's hope this week won't be a trend for 2024, as it feels like a dreadful start to the year when so many of my "safe" shares dropped so heavily. They're not meant to move that much in a week.

I want to buy some more magic formula shares in my SIPP, but my January contribution is about £170 off the minimum to do a transfer. My only hope is the bond fund goes up by 10% by then else I'll be waiting until late February. I have some profitable JLP:Jubilee Metals shares that I could sell and liberate £2,362 but I'd only make £228 profit and I feel these are due a significant re-rate. I'd rather hold for 12p which would give me £2,614 profit and liberate £4,748, but that might be wishful thinking!

Meanwhile we still wait in vain for news from OPTI:Optibiotix. I have a feeling it's never going to come, and if it does, I bet it's a damp squib for some niche product likely to generate no revenue, like the cookies in Wallmart and Costco that we got so excited about a few years ago and turned out to be utterly valueless.