Week 346 Review - 4D Pharma rallies but Optibiotix drops back

I guess it was too much to hope that the recent recovery would be maintained, especially with OPTI:Optibiotix going ex-dividend on the share handout. I was expecting much worse than the 3p drop, but it meant the deficit between cost and value increased by £3,216 to £66,805 and portfolio value decreased to £91,958.

Biggest loser was JLP:Jubilee Metals which for some reason dropped following what I thought were good, solid results. There has been a lot of expenditure to ramp up production capacity, but that was ignored as the market focused on the fact profit was lower than the last period. The fact we no longer have any debt was not taken into consideration. The share price dropped 9% of my original purchase price, which isn't actually a big drop. I'm determined to resist the temptation to sell any more of these.

OPTI:Optibiotix was the next worst performer, dropping 5%, but hopefully preparing to give me the equivalent of £12,000 dividend shortly. The 3p drop should have cost me £5,250 so it shows there were some good performances elsewhere to knock £2,000 off that drop.

DDDD:4D Pharma revealed amazing results from the latest cancer trials, meeting their endpoint early and in 25% of the patients rather than the target 10%. Normally you would expect s massive surge in share price, and indeed it came on the day of the announcement, up 60% around lunchtime. By the end of the day that had dropped to 25% up, and by the end of the week my ISA holding was only up by 10%. My SIPP was up 17% because that has a much smaller purchase price, but most pharma stocks would have doubled at least. The problem is we have a distressed seller still with 2% of the company who sold heavily into the rise, and I suspect as a result was massively shorted in the USA as soon as it hit 60% up. Very frustrating that I'm still over 50% down on these as it's my 2nd biggest holding  with over £18k invested.

Share of the Week is BLU:Blue Star Capital which announced very encouraging results and went up 19%. My holding is still 44% down so not holding my breath for anything to happen to make money.

Hoped I'd get across the injection line but it wasn't to be

After caressing the trend line last week, we're now back below it.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 34 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£25.80		+£0
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£40,608.72	(-43.8%)	-£1,880.18
Potential profits	£1,935.29		-£80.00
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£466.50	(12.7%)	-£14.13
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£361.27	(9.8%)	-£1.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

JLP:Jubilee Metals is the only thing in profit and dropped £80, although SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is within £8 of going into profit so we can hope for next week. Long term average profit performance is still good.

Still quite a way below the injection line

Never made it above the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 330 overall and week 18 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£133.13		-£32.95
Portfolio cost	£83,776.43		-£229.46
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£50,015.15	(-40.3%)	-£1,655.35
Potential profits	£114.81		+£74.30
Yr 7 Dividends	£96.57		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£297.22		-£229.00
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£78.86	(1.8%)	-£63.01
Total Dividends	£3,300.96		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,021.85		-£229.00
Average monthly cash profit	£347.12	(8.0%)	-£4.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	51%		+0%

Cash went up £32 thanks to a tax rebate. Portfolio cost dropped by £229 because I decided to take a 12.3% loss on CMCL:Caledonia Mining because they couldn't even get into profit with the massive high gold price, and I was miffed DDDD:4D Pharma only went up 10% and decided to buy some more.

I bought 2,839 shares at 56.68p costing £1,621.10 and they promptly fell to 50p. Bloody brilliant!

The loss on the sale hammered annual performance by £63 a month but only took £4 a month off long term performance. I'm still hoping DDDD will double when the distressed seller is out of the way.

Almost made it to the injection line but not quite

Bang on the trend line and still going down.

The trading account looks like this after week 296 overall and week 36 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£916.44	(-61.4%)	+£89.62
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.61	(7.4%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A good week thanks to the 10% increase in DDDD:4D Pharma, but with these still 65% down there's not much hope of an imminent profit even if they double from here.

Will it last?

We're above the trend line by enough to start flattening it.

So OPTI:Optibiotix didn't rise anywhere near as much as I hoped into the dividend ex-date, but then it dropped a lot less than I expected after, so all in all I can't complain. I will treat the dividend as if it's cash and so my long term performance will benefit massively and the shares will go as being purchased for whatever price they are valued at IPO. That way I can still report on losses and gains.

As for DDDD:4D Pharma, there are more trial results expected soon and our seller will run out of shares to sell, and the shorters will hopefully close at that point, as I desperately want to get at least past the injection line again else I feel I've wasted 6 years effort.

Week 345 Review - Big recovery but still below injection amount

This week saw a massive recovery in OPTI:Optibiotix to claw back £14,712 of the recent losses and reduce the deficit between cost and value to £63,589. The overall value went up to £95,371, but that's still less than I've put in so we're still in a sorry state, but not as sorry as last week.

Biggest loser was JLP:Jubilee Metals which dropped 16% of my purchase price and is still well below what I expected given metal prices and imminent copper revenue.

CEY:Centamin have pretty underwhelming results and were hammered, dropping 10% to go 23% down altogether.

IGG:IG Group have been slowly sneaking up, and climbed another 6% this week. They are only 8% down, which makes them one of my best performing shares. Could I finally get a magic formula share back in the black?

TLOU:Tlou Energy are making great progress and market seems to be slowly waking up to it. They went up 6% but are still half the price of the share options I have, so there's not going to be any incentive to take them up unless there's a re-rate.

ASHM:Ashmore Group have been suffering recently but went up 8% this week. They are still 14% down and I do regret buying them as they are exposed to some pretty big risks. Sometimes there's a good reason for a company to be at the top of the magic formula ranking, and I ought to assess the risks in future before piling in.

Share of the Week is OPTI:Optibiotix which went up by 8p which is 13%. This was mainly on the back of the announcement that they are splitting out the Probiotics division and floating it on the market. Thankfully OPTI shareholders are getting an allocation of shares, and I should get around 60,000 which will be nice. I'll treat the value of the shares as a dividend and add their cost to my portfolio cost else it will screw up all my figures if I have them at cost £0. I guess on ex dividend day the OPTI share price will drop about 20p so I should be prepared for a disastrous week. Only a Sweetbiotix announcement can save us.

Almost back up to the injection line but not quite

We have hit the trend line though. I long to be the other side of it...

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 33 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£25.80		+£0
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£42,488.90	(-41.1%)	+£7,081.92
Potential profits	£2,015.29		-£140.00
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£480.63	(13.0%)	-£15.02
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£362.31	(9.8%)	-£1.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

Potential profit dropped £140 thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals which is still my only profitable share in this account. SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is only 5% down so hopefully that can contribute soon.

Massive increase in value reducing the deficit by 10% and sowing a seed of hope.

As with the combined chart, still below injection line

Still below trend line on this one.

The SIPP looks like this after week 329 overall and week 17 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£100.18		-£0.27
Portfolio cost	£84,005.89		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£51,670.50	(-38.5%)	+£7,617.53
Potential profits	£40.51		-£90.00
Yr 7 Dividends	£96.57		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£526.22		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£141.87	(3.3%)	-£8.94
Total Dividends	£3,300.96		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,250.85		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£351.19	(8.1%)	-£1.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	51%		+0%

Cash dropped by the AJ Bell SIPP fee. Potential profits dropped thanks to SBTX:SkinBiotherapeutics dropping to only 90p potential profit, and iShares Physical Gold also dropped.

Same story as the ISA with huge gains mostly thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix

So close to the injection line, but below it.

Above the trend line!

The trading account looks like this after week 295 overall and week 35 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£826.82	(-65.2%)	+£13.11
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.66	(7.4%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A tiny increase and still generally a disaster.

No hope of anything nice happening here

However, we're above the trend line so things could be looking up!

Ex-dividend date for OPTI:Optibiotix is Thursday so I'm expecting a massive drop in share price that day. If it's 20p as I fear, then it will remove £35,000 from my portfolio value. However, if I get 60,000 shares that will add £12,000 to my dividends so it could get a bit complicated.

It will also mean the OPTI share price drops to 20p which would be crazy with Sweetbiotix coming along. I desperately need there to be good news early next week to prevent a wipe-out.

Week 344 Review - Some recovery after last week's crash

There was some recovery this week, but a narrowing of the deficit between cost and value of £7,898 is making up less than half of last week's losses. The deficit now stands at £78,301 and overall portfolio value is up to £80,659.

The only big loser this week was JLP:Jubilee Metals, which is a big surprise given how much more their products are worth. I expected these to be doing much better under the circumstances.

OPTI:Optibiotix clawed back 3p of the 10p lost last week, which is 5%, of my purchase price, but they are the main reason things are so bad at the moment.

PLUS:Plus500 also climbed 5% and are now only 13% down and should be doing very well with the current market volatility.

TLOU:Tlou Energy are making lots of positive noises about not being far from earning revenue. The share price went up 6% but is still way, way below what it was when revenue was a long way off. 

FXPO:Ferrexpo recovered 7% as presumably investors are hoping they are far enough away from the main cities to escape any serious damage. I wouldn't bet on it though, and I certainly wouldn't be buying them.

CMCL:Caledonia Mining has so far failed to budge as the gold price has increased, but this week climbed 10%. They are still 18% down which says a lot about how bad my timing was when I bought them.

DDDD:4D Pharma may be on the cusp of recovery as their forced seller may have finished selling. If that's the case then the shorters will close and there should be a good bounce. This week they recovered 10% but are still 68% down.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which had a late rally and went up 12%, with my SIPP holding going back into profit.

It looks a depressingly small recovery, but it's a start.

Way below the trend line and will be for a while I suspect

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 32 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£25.80		+£0
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£35,406.98	(-51.0%)	+£3,511.76
Potential profits	£2,155.29		-£60.00
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£495.65	(13.4%)	-£15.99
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£363.37	(9.9%)	-£1.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

JLP:Jubilee Metals is the only share in profit and that dropped £60. Long term profit/dividend performance still good.

Same story as combined chart

Bad, but not as bad as last week

The SIPP looks like this after week 328 overall and week 16 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£100.45		+£10.88
Portfolio cost	£84,005.89		+£119.12
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£44,052.97	(-47.6%)	+£4,296.39
Potential profits	£130.51		+£77.55
Yr 7 Dividends	£96.57		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£526.22		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£150.81	(3.5%)	-£10.06
Total Dividends	£3,300.96		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,250.85		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£352.27	(8.1%)	-£1.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	51%		+0%

My monthly saving was invested in iShares Physical Gold before I had a chance to switch it to something cheaper, and that's making £66 potential profit now, along with the £64 from SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics going back into the black. Long term performance needs a boost but I don't know where it's going to come from.

I keep adding more money but it keeps going down.

A whole year following the trend line downwards and still below it.

The trading account looks like this after week 294 overall and week 34 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£813.71	(-65.7%)	+£90.02
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.71	(7.4%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Good bounce back this week mainly thanks to DDDD:4D Pharma. The Nasdaq share LBPS was up 34% by the end of trading so hopefully we will catch up on Monday.

I'm slightly less depressed than I was last week, but things are still looking fairly bleak. Some good news next week will help rather a lot.

Week 343 Review - The worst week ever

I hoped things had got as bad as they were going to get, but last week saw the biggest single week drop since I started investing. The deficit between cost and value widened by an eye-watering £19,919 to £86,199 which is significantly more than the £72,630 value of my portfolio, having now lost more than half its value.

Not surprisingly POLY:Polymetal was the worst casualty with fear of sanctions against their Russian mines. They dropped 42% in my ISA and 36% in my SIPP and are 90% down on my purchase price. So much for a "safe" FTSE gold company!

OPTI:Optibiotix had a catastrophic 10p drop which is 16% and contributed £17,500 of the losses. I'm in a state of shock that they could have dropped so far when progress is so positive. Typically I bought a load more with my pension transfer just before the drop, so those are already 10% down.

ASHM:Ashmore Group fell 12%. I'm not sure how much they have tied up in Russia. I thought they specialised in emerging markets, but these are already 23% down after owning them just a few months.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics was in profit a few weeks ago but fell another 10% this week to go 13% down. News from Croda about partner uptake of the lysate would be most welcome now.

I invested part of my pension transfer in CAML:Central Asia Metals and it immediately dropped 9% which just about sums up the week.

BLU:Blue Star Capital fell 8% but has been massively volatile for a while now.

FXPO:Ferrexpo operates out of Ukraine and dropped another 8% to go 75% down.

PLUS:Plus500 should be benefitting from the volatility of the stock market but still dropped 6% and is now 18% down when it looked like going into profit was imminent.

IGG:IG Group also dropped 5% despite potentially benefitting from stock market volatility.

IES:Invinity Energy dropped 5% after the contract news excitement died down.

A few slivers of hope in the gold sector, with iShares Physical Gold fund climbing 6% to go 10% up. I think I need to switch my monthly subscription to something else while the price of gold is so high as I don't want to be buying now.

Share of the week is CEY:Centamin, which took advantage of the high price of gold and climbed 7%, but they are still 12% down so I can't make a profit even at these gold prices!

Picture says it all really

Desperate

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 31 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£25.80		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£31,895.22	(-55.8%)	-£9,839.51
Potential profits	£2,215.29		+£0
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£511.64	(13.9%)	-£17.60
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£364.43	(9.9%)	-£1.11
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

Nothing to say other than massive losses all round. Cash down from monthly ISA fee and JLP:Jubilee Metals stayed flat despite rising precious metals prices and so no change to potential profit.

So bad I had to extend the Y axis downwards by £10,000.

May as well just forget the trend line. I was following it quite closely, now all bets are off.

The SIPP looks like this after week 327 overall and week 15 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£89.57		-£243.98
Portfolio cost	£83,886.77		+£2,443.59
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£39,637.46	(-52.7%)	-£10,029.07
Potential profits	£52.96		-£2.51
Yr 7 Dividends	£96.57		+£15.03
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£526.22		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£160.87	(3.7%)	-£11.61
Total Dividends	£3,300.96		+£15.03
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,250.85		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£353.34	(8.1%)	-£1.09
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	51%		-2%

The pension transfer came through so I did as I originally intended and invested in CAML:Central Asia Metals. I bought 476 shares at 230.6975p costing £1,110.07 and they promptly dropped 10%.

I was intending re-investing in PAF:Pan African Resources but not at the current price, so in time honoured fashion I bought another 3,910 shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at 33.7998p costing £1,333.52 and they promptly dropped to 29p. The purchase reduced my weighted average in the SIPP to 58.4p so hopefully brings the day I go into profit a little bit closer.

IGG:IG Group paid out a £15 dividend which covered the monthly fees and potential profits stayed about flat ay £52 as SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics went into loss but iShares Physical Gold went up a bit.

A familiar story

Where will we go next?

The trading account looks like this after week 293 overall and week 33 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£723.69	(-69.5%)	-£50.52
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.76	(7.5%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Back to the big drops just as things seemed to be turning around.

Looks like an all time low

At least this account is following the trend line instead of lunging beneath it.

A year of misery has just been topped off with a week of absolute hell. I'm beyond bothered. There will either be a big recovery or there won't. Any early retirement plans are well and truly on hold.