Week 342 Review - Everything plummets as Russia invades Ukraine

Just as I thought things might be about to turn around, Russia invades Ukraine and there's a huge crash. The deficit between cost and value grew by £8,899 to a record £66,280 and total portfolio value fell to £90,354.

Not surprisingly my biggest fallers were my two Ukrainian stocks. FXPO:Ferrexpo fell 27% and  POLY:Polymetal fell 25% and both are going to be in the red for a long time, and that's assuming they even get to keep their assets.

BLU:Blue Star Capital fell 12%, but I wouldn't read anything into that as it's all over the place at the moment.

JLP:Jubilee Metals fell 9% after a big fall last week, so the hoped-for re-rate has gone into reverse.

PLUS:Plus500 fell 8% which is a mystery given they usually do well during periods of stock market volatility.

OPTI:Optibiotix fell 4p which is 7% and accounted for £7,000 of the losses this week. I'm only glad the trading update was delayed, as this would have been a dreadful week to announce anything.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics did almost as bad, dropping 6%, but I think a lot of that was profit taking after last week's 25% climb.

ASHM:Ashmore Group was my dreadfully timed purchase last week when they fell 6% and added to the misery by falling another 5% this week to go 11% down in 2 weeks, unlike PAF:Pan African Resources which is flying since I sold them.

Miraculously we have a Share of the Week, with IES:Invinity Energy rising 5% after announcing a big government grant funded order. A few more of these and I may claw back some of my 77% losses on this share.

Not surprising that we've bombed below the injection line. Turns out the mattress would have been a better place for my money.

A new all-time low performance.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 30 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£29.55		+£0
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£41,734.73	(-42.2%)	-£4,170.17
Potential profits	£2,215.29		-£114.40
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£529.24	(14.4%)	-£18.25
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£365.54	(9.9%)	-£1.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

Massive drop in value. Fortunately a small drop in potential profit as 9% of my JLP:Jubilee Metals purchase price isn't that much, but SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics went back to loss. Not much else happened.

Well below the injection line. Very, very disappointing.

All-time low and failing miserably to get back above the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 326 overall and week 14 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£333.55		+£121.69
Portfolio cost	£81,443.18		-£90.00
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£47,222.94	(-42.0%)	-£4,779.24
Potential profits	£55.47		-£92.83
Yr 7 Dividends	£81.54		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£526.48		+£1.69
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£172.48	(4.1%)	-£12.70
Total Dividends	£3,285.93		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,250.85		+£1.69
Average monthly cash profit	£354.43	(8.5%)	-£1.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

Same story as the ISA only worse, as FXPO:Ferrexpo and POLY:Polymetal are my 2 Ukrainian based companies and were hammered.

There was a glimpse of hope, as I received a £30 tax rebate and finally flogged my Blackrock World Gold fund which I never wanted in the first place but the tax rebates were auto-invested. Although this only made £1.69p profit, it liberated the £90 that I wanted to invest elsewhere so I can add that to may £2,200 pension transfer when it arrives. The money still hasn't come out of the pension yet so I may not get it until the week after next.

Potential profit was hammered with the drop of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, but it is still in the black by £32 and my iShares Physical Gold fund is also £22 up.

As with the ISA, the tragic site of this account going below the injection line.

Just as we'd got clear of the trend line, we're now well below it. A whole year of losses - it's utterly depressing.

The trading account looks like this after week 292 overall and week 32 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£774.21	(-67.4%)	-£40.34
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.81	(7.5%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Not surprising that this dropped £40 given the carnage everywhere else. To think last week I was feeling optimistic...

The only crumb of comfort is that it's not the lowest ever.

Bang on the trend line as we continue the downward trajectory.

I'm not going to moan too bitterly about this week's drop, as there are people losing much more than a few thousand quid in Ukraine. It's really sad that this happened, and a genuine concern for world peace. Let's hope enough people within Russia are repulsed by the actions and step up to put a stop to it.

I do have one thing to look forward to next week. IGG:IG Group pay out their dividend. Aside from that there's nothing but anxiety and concern, so next week's write up risks being a repeat of this one.

Week 341 Review - Flat(ish) but finished in the red

Yet another week in the red, although I would have been in the black if I hadn't taken some profits, and as the deficit between cost and value only widened by £78 I think it's best classed as a flat week. The deficit now stands at £57,380 and total portfolio value is £99,222.

JLP:Jubilee Metals had a dreadful week, giving back half of last week's gains and dropping 37% of my purchase price. Hopefully that was just profit taking and we can get it back next week.

ASHM:Ashmore Group was a new share I bought after selling PAF:Pan African Resources. My plan is to buy back into PAF when my pension transfer arrives, but I wanted to get ASHM before the dividend and there wouldn't have been time if I'd waited. It didn't turn out too well as PAF continued upwards as the price of gold surged, whereas ASHM lost 6% as it dropped nearly every day since I bought it.

TLOU:Tlou Energy also fell 6%. I don't know why this has gone so low, as it's doing everything right on the ground. I think once construction of the power lines starts then maybe sentiment will improve.

BLU:Blue Star Capital continues to yo-yo and this week climbed 6% and is only 38% down.

Blackrock World Gold Fund also climbed 6% and has gone 3% into the green. iShares Physical Gold has also move into profit, which is more than I can say for most of my gold mines.

Share of the week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which for no apparent reason climbed 25% and my holding went onto profit. Given OPTI:Optibiotix own a large number of shares, it's frankly unbelievable that they didn't rise a penny this week.

Looking pretty flat.

Still below the trend line

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 29 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£29.55		+£0
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£45,904.90	(-36.4%)	-£182.87
Potential profits	£2,329.69		-£285.60
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£547.49	(14.9%)	-£19.55
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£366.61	(9.9%)	-£1.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

Potential profits dropped by £285 thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals, but it would have been more if SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics hadn't gone £34 into profit. The drop in portfolio value was pretty negligible, but a hit to the morale as long-term performance dips beneath 10%.

The flattest few weeks for a long time

Running parallel to the trend line, but unfortunately still below it.

The SIPP looks like this after week 325 overall and week 13 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£211.86		+£144.72
Portfolio cost	£81,533.18		-£1.40
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£52,002.18	(-36.2%)	+£76.76
Potential profits	£148.30		+£30.11
Yr 7 Dividends	£81.54		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£524.53		+£143.49
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£185.18	(4.4%)	+£36.32
Total Dividends	£3,285.93		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,249.16		+£143.49
Average monthly cash profit	£355.50	(8.5%)	+£0.82
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

I sold my PAF:Pan African Resources shares because I foolishly believed the price of gold had spiked, but it carried on rising as did their share price. It doesn't really matter because I sold my shares at 19.3375p having paid 16.4936p to make £143.50 (14.5%) profit. My target for magic formula shares is 10% plus a dividend, and the £41 dividend from December takes the overall return to 18% in just a few months.

I wanted to get back into ASHM:Ashmore Group before their dividend ex-date on 3rd March. I bought 358 shares at 278.8977p costing £1,015.39 with commission and stamp duty. I actually sold my original holding for £104 loss because I had a panic over their exposure to Evergrande which looked like they were going bust. Since then the price has dropped 70p so I think that risk is priced in, and Evergrande got a bail-out and may continue to be bailed out given the impact of them going bust. I think a P/E ratio of 7.5 gives this potential to double over the next 12 months if the Evergrande issue blows over. It is a risk, and the combination of spread and further drops mean these are already 6% down so it's not an auspicious start. I can only hope there's some buying on the run up to dividend day.

The sale improved year 7 performance a bit, but barely had any impact on long term performance at all, with just 82p added to my average monthly profit.

Potential profits actually increased despite the sale. This was thanks to SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics going £128 into profit, Blackrock World Gold going £3 into profit, and iShares Physical Gold going £17 into profit.

Same as the other charts

Just on the trend line is better than below it.

The trading account looks like this after week 291 overall and week 31 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£814.55	(-65.7%)	+£26.51
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.86	(7.5%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

An increase for the second week in a row, despite DDDD:4D Pharma falling further. This account is still doomed to be in the red for years though.

Will this last for more than 2 weeks?

Above the trend line for the first time in a while

I should be able to apply for my pension transfer next week. I think it will be £2,100, and my plan is still to buy back into PAF:Pan African Resources with £1,000, but only once they have dropped back a bit. The rest of the balance will go on CAML:Central Asia Metals which I wish I could get now while they're cheaper than when I last sold them. If PAF doesn't drop back, then there are other magic formula shares to look at. 

APAX:Apax Global Alpha went on an amazing run after I sold them for £324 profit, as did POLR:Polar Capital Holdings after I sold for £565 profit, but both have dropped back to only a little above what I sold them for, so I may go back to them. WHR:Warehouse REIT are now cheaper than when I sold them and are next on the list. All pay great dividends and sit near the top of my magic formula rankings. It will take a few weeks for the transfer to come through so I'll watch all these closely.

Week 340 Review - Most of last week's gains are gone

It looks like last week was a blip, as we're back to normal this week with nearly all last week's gains wiped out. It was a slightly positive week until Friday, when a 1p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix led to a nosedive. The deficit between cost and value widened by £1,451 to £57,302 and portfolio value dropped back bellow £100k to £99,157.

There were no big fallers this week, which usually signals a positive week.

FXPO:Ferrexpo climbed 6% as tensions in the Ukraine began to ease slightly, but these are still 38% down so have a lot of recovering to do before my annual review date on 28th May.

BLU:Blue Star Capital have been very volatile lately, but in a good way this week as they went up by 8%. They are still 44% down but if there is any half decent news about Satoshipay then they could recover very quickly.

Share of the Week by miles is JLP:Jubilee Metals which increased by a spectacular 60% of my original purchase price and is now 300% up. I'm expecting this momentum to continue as they are well below fair price for the income they are now generating.

At least the drop wasn't enough to take us below the injection line.

I'm really struggling to get above the trend line.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 28 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£29.55		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£46,087.77	(-36.2%)	-£479.21
Potential profits	£2,615.29		+£520
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£567.04	(15.4%)	-£21.60
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£367.69	(10.0%)	-£1.13
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

Not too big a drop here thanks to the increase in value of JLP:Jubilee Metals by £520. It's taking all my willpower not to cash in any more profits here, but I've already sold too many so really need to hold these long term. There's no reason why they can't get to 100p in the next 5 years given the speed of growth, at which point I'll only need to sell 1,000 for each £1,000 to spend on something else instead of needing to sell 6,000 now.

Annual performance is still great and long term performance has just about stayed on 10% for another week.

Such a long way to get back to the cost line.

Well below the trend line and dragging it steeper

The SIPP looks like this after week 324 overall and week 12 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£67.14		-£504.33
Portfolio cost	£81,534.58		+£1,007.64
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£51,925.42	(-36.3%)	-£994.85
Potential profits	£118.19		-£6.06
Yr 7 Dividends	£81.54		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£381.04		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£148.86	(3.6%)	-£20.11
Total Dividends	£3,285.93		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,105.67		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£354.68	(8.5%)	-£1.32
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	53%		-1%

A lot happened this week.

Firstly me regular monthly purchase of iShares Physical Gold went through. I got 4 units at 2634.315p costing £106.87 after commission. That takes my holding up to 20 units and they are still flat, down by just £1.

Next I did what I usually do when OPTI:Optibiotix drops in price. I cheered myself up by buying some more. I had some cash in my AJ Bell account so I added £280 from my bank account as it's payday next week, and bought another 1,000 shares at 43.98p costing £449.75. That takes my total OPTI holding to 175,069. I should really stop now, but after six and a half years I'm still convinced in the story. The first generation products have got us to break even despite not being on the market for long, but the second generation products have staggering potential. I still see this as my retirement share.

I also had cash in my Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP and I've been beyond frustrated with the share price action of DDDD:4D Pharma, so I added £240 from my bank account and bought 1,254 shares at 35.0127p costing £451.01. I now have 15,139 of these but this purchase only dragged my SIPP average down from 130p to 107p, and my ISA average is 115p so they are down by 70%. I would buy loads more at this level, but I've been stung badly by pharma companies before so I daren't risk it, as the £17,000 I've spent on these already would wipe out half of my profits if they go bust.

This account fared much worse than the ISA as there was no star performer to mend the hole left by the OPTI:Optibiotix drop. Annual performance is woeful as I can't sell anything, and long term average slipped another 0.1%, with compound performance also dropping thanks to the increase in injection.

This is so deceptive as it looks almost flat for the last 12 months, but the cost line has been steadily rising as I bank profits and inject more cash.

There's the real picture. Woe and desperate misery.

The trading account looks like this after week 290 overall and week 30 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£788.04	(-66.8%)	+£22.86
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.91	(7.5%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Remarkably this account has gone up two weeks in a row. Only by £22, but I'm not complaining. This week it was thanks to HUM:Hummingbird Resources and IQE:IQE, but in spite of DDDD:4D Pharma which dropped yet again.

Given the complete catastrophe this account has been, the long term performance of 7.5% is fairly remarkable, assuming I ever break even on my current holdings.

If this is the start of a recovery then it's going to take a long time at the current rate.

I need to get above the trend line next week to boost my morale.

It's pay day on Tuesday which means at the end of the week I will have enough money in my work pension to transfer some into my SIPP. I reckon I'll have about £2,400. I'm determined to stick to my plan and buy magic formula shares. One that qualifies for magic formula is CAML:Central Asia Metals, and I hate not being invested so will almost certainly get back in there. I sold them for 237p and the current price is 234p so they are virtually unchanged since then. The dividend ex-date is in April, so buying now will get me that too.

I've not completely refreshed my magic formula rankings as it would take forever, so I've re-ranked on P/E ratio because that's automatic, and updated the stats for a few of the top-ranked shares so see how they compare. I risk missing an amazing company that's emerged via recent results, but I can live with that until my next injection in June. The leader is ASHM:Ashmore Group, so assuming there are no changes between now and the transfer, those will be my other buy. Their stats have all improved since I last ran my calculations, and it appears they are taking advantage of a troubled market to invest in a few bargains in emerging markets. Their dividend ex-date is early March so I may just have time. If it looks like there will be a delay I may sell PAF:Pan African Resources as they have no dividend until December, buy ASHM:Ashmore Group now, and then buy back PAF when the cash comes through, as my review date for them isn't until November so I'll definitely want to have some for the next dividend.

Week 339 Review - First positive week of 2022

At last we have a positive week. No major fallers and a 2p increase in OPTI:Optibiotix helped hugely. The deficit between cost and value reduced by £3,777 to £55,851 and total portfolio value with cash went above the magic £100k at £100,108.

HUM:Hummingbird Resources and PAF:Pan African Resources both climbed 5% despite the price of gold bouncing above and below $1,800. 

JLP:Jubilee Metals also rose 5% but is still well down on where it should be.

IES:Invinity Energy climbed 6% after announcing a big new order.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, which cast aside its recent dreadful form to climb 13% of my purchase price in the ISA and 15% in my SIPP.

Thank goodness we didn't dip below the injection line.

Bang on the trend line but really need to be well above it.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 27 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£33.30		+£0
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£46,566.98	(-35.5%)	+£1,934.66
Potential profits	£2,095.29		+£40
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£588.64	(16.0%)	-£22.64
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£368.82	(10.0%)	-£1.09
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

JLP:Jubilee Metals added £40 to potential profits. The fact it takes a 5% rise to do that shows how few shares I have left. Value up nicely and long term performance stays at 10% but I fear will slip below very soon.

As with the overall chart, just avoided dropping below the injection line

Still well below the trend line so no chance of recovery very soon.

The SIPP looks like this after week 323 overall and week 11 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£571.47		+£159.84
Portfolio cost	£80,526.94		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£51,912.63	(-35.5%)	+£1,822.77
Potential profits	£124.25		+£56.98
Yr 7 Dividends	£81.54		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£381.04		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£168.97	(4.1%)	-£16.96
Total Dividends	£3,285.93		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,105.67		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£356.00	(8.6%)	-£1.11
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	54%		+0%

Potential profits up £56 thanks to PAF:Pan African Resources, portfolio value up pleasingly and cash up due to a £30 tax rebate and my £130 monthly savings minus the AJ Bell SIPP admin charge of 16p.

Same story as the ISA

Slightly better as we're just above the trend line, but not enough to help flatten it.

The trading account looks like this after week 289 overall and week 29 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£765.18	(-67.8%)	+£20.41
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.96	(7.6%)	-£0.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A positive week despite DDDD:4D Pharma slipping yet again, as HUM:Hummingbird Resources climbed 5%. Still looking pretty grim though, and didn't even make up half of last week's losses.

Looks flat rather than an up-tick

Still below the trend line. I feel like I've been writing that for a year - oh hold on - I have!

I'm beginning to wonder if the turn-around will ever come. I've been expecting good news on many fronts for months now, but it either doesn't arrive at all, or when it does is treated like bad news and the share price drops.

I seem to be invested in sectors that are just not popular at the moment. I bought magic formula shares because the price was already cheap, but all except one have dropped, and some have dropped significantly. At least they are all still paying good dividends, but they are not making up for the big drops in capital value.

I will be able to take another £2,000 from my work pension in a few weeks. I need to decide whether to put it into one of my ludicrously underpriced shares like OPTI:Optibiotix or DDDD:4D Pharma or stick to my guns and get some more magic formula shares. Despite my temptation to average down on OPTI and DDDD, I really should get the diversity into my SIPP that magic formula gives me.