Week 298 Review - Very quiet but most holdings drop

A very quiet week with no fallers or risers of 5% or more, but with most shares falling in value it was a repeat of last week. The difference between cost and value worsened by £2,484 and is now £23,983 in deficit, with total portfolio value dropping to £115,562.

Share of the Week is APAX:Apax Global Alpha, which wins for the second week in a row despite only rising 3%. This does reveal the steady progress being made here, even better thanks to the 7% dividend.

Just an extension of last week.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 38 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£9.79		+£0
Portfolio cost	£67,058.62		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£54,483.59	(-18.8%)	-£1,169.19
Potential profits	£6,813.67		-£120.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£4,629.22		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£524.05	(15.0%)	-£14.16
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£25,055.83		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£380.00	(10.9%)	-£1.28
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	63%		+0%

Potential profits down thanks to a small drop in JLP:Jubilee Metals, and the 1p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix did for a big chunk of the rest. Long term performance still above 10% target.

The SIPP looks like this after week 282 overall and week 22 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£269.37		-£76.71
Portfolio cost	£69,574.61		+£418.54
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£58,935.02	(-15.3%)	-£1,280.42
Potential profits	£3,968.61		-£338.73
Yr 6 Dividends	£573.61		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,295.11		+£209.73
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,139.48	(32.0%)	-£10.98
Total Dividends	£2,640.69		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,754.55		+£209.73
Average monthly cash profit	£348.68	(9.8%)	+£2.00
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

I sold some shares this week in order to top up on OPTI:Optibiotix, as I decided if the CEO is willing to buy more on the open market when he already owns millions, then it would be rude not to join him.

I sold 500 CAML:Central Asia Metals and made £415.15 (44.8%) profit, and used the proceeds to buy 2,946 OPTI:Optibiotix at 52.3p costing £1,549.71. Unfortunately I then decided to see how many shares I had, and when I discovered it was just under 150,000 I decided I needed to crack that milestone.

I sold 91 shares of CMCL:Caledonia Mining at a loss of £205.42 (17.4%) as I admitted to myself it was a terrible mistake re-investing in this serial under-performer and I was willing to take a small hit as I expect OPTI to climb way more than 17% when they finally start moving. I bought another 1,841 at 51.65p costing £959.83. That reduces my weighted average SIPP cost to 62p a share. Now I'm over 150k shares, each 1p change is worth £1,500.

The trading account looks like this after week 248 overall and week 40 of year 5.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,605.28	(-32.4%)	-£35.19
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£71.90	(36.3%)	-£1.84
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.44	(8.8%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Everything fell except IQE:IQE so not a great week. Still no sign of DDDD:4D Pharma doing what I thought it would. Clearly Nasdaq listing has done nothing to encourage high value American investors.

Another late one and another depressing one, so no compulsion to write more. I need a good week to lift my flagging spirits.

Week 297 Review - Regretting selling Ferrexpo

A pretty poor week with most shares drifting down and nothing up by 5% or more. The result was an increase in the deficit between cost and value by £2,474 to £21,498, and a drop in total portfolio value to £117,705. I guess I shouldn't complain too much, as it wasn't long ago I was dreaming of getting back above £100k.

Worst performer was JLP:Jubilee Metals which fell 16% but is still up by 267%. I guess this will feature every week in this section, as it doesn't need to move far to be up or down 5% of my cost price. Each week I resist the temptation to bank more profit is a bonus as we wait on news of copper production and the next re-rate.

TLOU:Tlou Energy dropped 5% which is a bit of a pain given my recent purchase, but happy to say that remains 8% up, unlike my ISA holding which is down 55%.

Share of the Week is APAX:Apax Global Alpha which although only up 4% is the best performer. They are now 36% up altogether and have paid 7% dividends so are doing very well. 12-month review date is early June.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 37 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£9.79		+£0
Portfolio cost	£67,058.62		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£55,652.78	(-17.0%)	-£1,397.07
Potential profits	£6,933.67		-£420.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£4,629.22		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£538.21	(15.5%)	-£14.95
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£25,055.83		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£381.28	(10.9%)	-£1.29
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	63%		+0%

Potential profits down thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals, but portfolio value down by much more, mainly thanks to a 1p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix as the news drought continues. We desperately need something on SweetBiotix to give the share price a boost. Performance still well above target.

The SIPP looks like this after week 281 overall and week 21 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£346.08		+£103.86
Portfolio cost	£69,156.07		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£59,796.90	(-13.5%)	-£1,065.47
Potential profits	£4,307.34		-£125.85
Yr 6 Dividends	£573.61		+£103.86
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,085.38		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,150.46	(32.4%)	-£38.63
Total Dividends	£2,640.69		+£103.86
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,544.82		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£346.68	(9.8%)	+£0.11
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

Cash is up £103 thanks to the FXPO:Ferrexpo special dividend. I'm regretting selling now, as the Russian threat seems to have been over-exaggerated and the expected dip was short lived. It this price there's still lots of upside so it's not too late to get back in - if only I could get shot of my CMCL:Caledonia Mining shares, which isn't going to happen any time soon given their current performance. I've always been cursed with this one. I really don't know why I keep coming back to them!

The trading account looks like this after week 247 overall and week 39 of year 5.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,640.47	(-30.9%)	-£12.34
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£73.74	(37.3%)	-£1.94
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.51	(8.8%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Very little change, with just a slight dip in value. I still expect DDDD:4D Pharma to take off soon, at which point I can get back to making some profit.

Nothing to add this week as I'm late writing it up. Seems to happen mostly when I lose money!

Week 296 Review - Held my SIPP cash for almost an hour before buying more Caledonia Mining

A really good week, with no major fallers and some decent gains in my larger holdings. That resulted in the deficit between cost and value reducing by £4,575 so it now stands at £19,023, and total portfolio value increased to £120,076.

CMCL:Caledonia Mining announced the completion of their central shaft project and an increased dividend, so with production about to ramp up I decided to put my £1,000 cash into here. That purchase is now in profit, but my overall holding improved by 6% but is still 15% down. I'm hoping for a steady rise and I'll gradually sell off until I have the original £1,000 holding as a long term dividend payer.

DDDD:4D Pharma still haven't achieved the hoped-for gains following the Nasdaq listing, but the impatient traders seem to have moved on and my holding went up 6% this week. The SIPP holding is only 4% down now, but ISA still 11% down and trading account 14% down. That should change after the next news and as DDDD shares are gradually converted to LBPS so the Nasdaq traded shares become more liquid. Investors holding DDDD can convert 8 of them to one LBPS so I'd expect these to increase in number as the DDDD shares are converted. Not sure I could be bothered converting mine, as the DDDD price should just follow LBPS.

POLR:Polar Capital Holdings has been a really good buy, and climbed another 6% this week to go 43% up altogether, or 50% if you include the dividends.

CAML:Central Asia Metals is finally letting rip, with an 11% increase this week taking my holding to 48% up, or 73% if you include the vast dividends. I feel a bit bad about selling some a few weeks ago, but it still makes up 5% of my portfolio.

TLOU:Tlou Energy is starting to look very promising, and my main holding climbed 7% but is still 52% down. However my new SIPP holding climbed 16% of the purchase price and is now 13% up and making £115 potential profit. If the PPA is signed then I think these will rocket.

Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals which climbed 37% of my original purchase price and is now up by 283%. When this starts going up a penny at a time it may get Share of the Week a lot more often! I just need to resist the temptation to sell more. My potential profit is £7,353, but if I had kept hold of all my shares it would be £18,420. I'm pretty sure the companies I re-invested my £5,467 profits haven't gone up enough to make up the £6,000 shortfall from what I could have had.

Progress in the right direction

Still well below the trend line so some catching up to do.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 36 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£9.79		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£67,058.62		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£57,049.85	(-14.9%)	+£2,318.14
Potential profits	£7,353.67		+£960.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£4,629.22		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£553.16	(15.9%)	-£16.27
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£25,055.83		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£382.57	(11.0%)	-£1.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	63%		+0%

Potential profits up £960 thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals, and an excellent improvement in value thanks to TLOU:Tlou Energy, DDDD:4D Pharma and OPTI:Optibiotix, the last of which increased by 1p. Cash dropped by monthly ISA fee, and long term performance is still above target, but will be below target if MTFB:Motif Bio don't get their act together and complete their reverse takeover as I'll lose £2,521 from my profits.

Although it's regained some losses, there's still a worrying pattern of decline.

Well below the trend line despite the trend line being well below break even.

The SIPP looks like this after week 280 overall and week 20 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£242.22		-£986.51
Portfolio cost	£69,156.07		+£1,006.55
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£60,862.37	(-12.0%)	+£2,202.82
Potential profits	£4,433.19		+£1,041.75
Yr 6 Dividends	£469.75		+£36.70
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,085.38		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,189.09	(33.4%)	-£54.22
Total Dividends	£2,536.83		+£36.70
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,544.82		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£346.57	(9.8%)	-£0.68
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+1%

I tried to hold my £1,000 but when CMCL:Caledonia Mining announced completion of their new central shaft project and an increase in dividend, I had to get some more as this will significantly ramp up production, and I was feeling underweight with gold given the potential for the gold price to increase. I bought another 86 shares at 1160p costing £1,006.55. My total holding cost £3,000 when I only intended to invest £1,000 so I'll probably sell two thirds of them in the not too distant future.

Compound performance was nudged just over 53% by the addition of the £36.70 dividend from APAX:Apax Global Alpha, taking their dividend yield to 7% of my original purchase price, with the share price 32% up.

Getting much closer to break even here.

Still dragging the trend line flatter but closer to it than last week.
The trading account looks like this after week 246 overall and week 38 of year 5

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,652.81	(-30.4%)	+£54.61
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£75.68	(38.3%)	-£2.05
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.58	(8.9%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Nice turnaround mainly thanks to DDDD:4D Pharma, but no prospect of selling anything soon.

A nudge back upwards but a long way to go. When will I get a chance to drop that injection line a bit further?

Still a pretty steady decline for the last 3 months.

I get my FXPO:Ferrexpo special dividend next week which will be nice. I'm still watching them as I may try and buy back in if there's a bit of a drop. The chances of getting back into SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics are looking remote now, as they have sailed higher than OPTI:Optibiotix. Although they are a great company, that price comparison makes no sense. It's just bloody typical that I've held OPTI through thick and thin and gone nowhere, but when I flog SBTX expecting it to behave the same way, I'm proved terribly wrong. I still think this push upwards will stall and I'll get a chance to buy in nearer 30p. At the moment I'd rather be increasing my holding in DDDD:4D Pharma than SBTX as it is so undervalued there has to be opportunity for a big rise. 

Really excited by TLOU:Tlou Energy at the moment too. There's momentum building, and people that got impatient and sold out are now starting to come back to the bulletin boards. If that's the case then my top-up last week may have been a rare example of good timing.

Week 295 Review - Sold Ferrexpo on fears of Russia/Ukraine tensions

This week was pretty flat all round, but a 2p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix would have given me a decent gain if I hadn't cashed in my profits by selling FXPO:Ferrexpo following a dip in share price on increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. I wasn't going to risk my healthy profit being lost. The overall effect was an improvement in the deficit between cost and value of £1,292 leaving it at £23,599, and a total portfolio value plus cash of £115,484.

Worst performer was JLP:Jubilee Metals for the second week in a row. This week they dropped 14% as more people banked profits and waited for news on copper production. My holding is still up by 246% so nothing to worry about. I just need to resist the temptation to sell more and hold on to my 60,000 remaining shares for the long term.

No shares rose by 5% or more this week, so Share of the Week goes to POLR:Polar Capital which climbed 4% to get to 700p and take my holding to 37% higher than when I bought it, which when you add the 6% dividend is a really good performance. Review date for these is the end of June, and I intend to hold them until that time as I don't anticipate the same panic dangers I had with FXPO:Ferrexpo.

A slight tick up but a long way to go.

Dragging the trend line down again.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 35 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£13.54		+£0
Portfolio cost	£67,058.62		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£54,731.71	(-18.4%)	+£1,003.73
Potential profits	£6,393.67		-£360.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£4,629.22		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£569.43	(16.4%)	-£16.75
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£25,055.83		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£383.92	(11.0%)	-£1.31
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	63%		+0%

Drop in potential profits thanks to the dip in JLP:Jubilee Metals, which took some shine off the 2p increase in OPTI:Optibiotix. Long term performance still well ahead of target and will be for some time unless I realise a loss.

Hardly any change really

Need to make up around £6,000 to get back on the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 279 overall and week 19 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£1,228.73		+£1,021.29
Portfolio cost	£68,149.52		+£2,151.97
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£57,653.00	(-15.4%)	+£294.89
Potential profits	£3,391.44		-£1,031.92
Yr 6 Dividends	£433.05		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,085.38		+£973.28
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,243.31	(35.0%)	+£165.24
Total Dividends	£2,500.13		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,544.82		+£973.28
Average monthly cash profit	£347.25	(9.8%)	+£13.93
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	52%		-1%

A lot more going on here. First of all I transferred £2,200 from my work pension and used some to buy another 1,202 shares in DDDD:4D Pharma at 110.38 costing £1,335.72 and the rest to buy 28,330 shares in TLOU:Tlou Energy at 3.02p costing £864.52. I want to get as many in DDDD as possible while they are this cheap, and I believe TLOU is heavily de-risked now and a bargain at this price.

I then got nervous about the increasing tensions on the Russia/Ukraine border and although my review date for FXPO:Ferrexpo isn't until May, I decided to bank my profits and sold my 562 shares at 355.4825p making £973.28 (95.9%) profit. I still have the special dividend to come and already have 10% from previous dividends, taking my total profit to over 100%. I used some of the cash to buy more DDDD:4D Pharma, getting 848 at 113.016p costing £967.33.

That leaves me £1,000 to do something else with, but I'm not sure what. I may hold it in case there's a chance to get back into FXPO:Ferrexpo at a much reduced price, I may buy more OPTI:Optibiotix or DDDD:4D Pharma, or I may get back into SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics if the price drops far enough. Alternatively I do what I ought to do, and see what's top of the magic formula ranking.

Year 6 projected performance is even more daft now, but should stay well above 10% by the end of the year, and long term performance actually dropped 0.1% owing to the injection amount increasing, so we're marginally below target but I'm confident by the end of summer we'll be over 10%.

A bigger bounce here because the green line includes cash.

Pretty flat here as this doesn't recognise the cash. As with the ISA, we need about £6,000 to get back on the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 245 overall and week 37 of year 5

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,598.20	(-32.7%)	-£6.36
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£77.73	(39.3%)	-£2.16
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.65	(8.9%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

A flat week, which is a relief after the massive dip taken last week, although some recovery would be nice. It seems like ages ago I was selling every week and banking profits. Now even the best performer is 20% down, but I'm still hoping for a quick recovery from DDDD:4D Pharma when the Nasdaq shares are more widely available.

Continuing the downward trend

Well below the trend line.

What are the chances of me holding the £1,000 cash in my SIPP to the end of the week? Not great I suspect!

It feels like lots of my shares are on the cusp of something big, and just waiting for news. OPTI:Optibiotix on Sweetbiotix production and contracts, DDDD:4D Pharma when Nasdaq investors arrive, TLOU:Tlou Energy when the PPA is signed, JLP:Jubilee Metals on production of copper, and a rise in CAML:Central Asia Metals as we approach ex-dividend date. Lots to look forward to.