Saturday 29 September 2018

Week 164 Review - Back above £100K

A good week, reversing the recent trend and my biggest holdings did well. Portfolio value increased by £4,181 extending the buffer between value and cost to £14,554 and taking me back over the magic £100K to £101,929.

Worst performer was MMX:Minds + Machines, which despite pretty good results had a bit of a turn-off for the market and dropped 13%. I'm sure this will recover quickly, as the promise from their new .luxe domain and the newly purchased company should mean good profits.

There was a big clutch of shares that dropped by 5% this week. SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics fell for no apparent reason, RED:RedT Energy is very volatile at the moment and this was probably down to profit taking, TND:Tandem Group swung to a loss in their interims so I'm surprised the drop wasn't greater, IQE:IQE are still being savaged by shorters and PAF:Pan African Resources are up and down a bit but when their new project starts producing could double quite quickly - I hope.

Three of my biggest holdings had a great week. MTFB:Motif Bio climbed 6% on the back of an announcement that one of their biggest shareholders, Amphion Innovations, has sorted out their short term financial issues and probably won't have to dump millions of shares on the market.

CAML:Central Asia Metals also climbed 6% and seem to be in recovery mode as more people expect the price of copper to start rising again.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 6p which is massive and accounts for most of the rise. That's 9% and makes me very happy.

Share of the Week is surprisingly N4P:N4 Pharma which crashed after the disaster with their re-formulated drugs failing tests. An announcement that things are moving with regulatory apptoval for their drug delivery system resulted in a 10% climb, but they are still 74% down on my purchase price so not looking good.




Nice kick back, and less miserable at only being about £18K down on what I was a few weeks ago instead of £25K.

Here's the performance of the ISA and share accounts



Weekly Change
Cash £6.61
+£0
Portfolio cost £56,958.55
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £65,978.01 (15.8%) +£2,826.01
Potential profits £16,723.99
+£3,154.99
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £453.15 (9.5%) -£64.74
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £544.98 (11.5%) -£3.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Paper profits up thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, but £300 was wiped out by deepening losses from all the 5% drops. Still way over my long term 10% target so no inclination to sell anything.



Pretty much the same as the combined chart. At least the trend line is much happier than it was a few months ago.

The SIPP looks like this after week 148



Weekly Change
Cash £42.83
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £33,850.08 (21.4%) +£1,373.61
Potential profits £9,517.46
+£1,580.59
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £177.42 (7.6%) -£4.13
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £336.57 (14.5%) -£2.29
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Similar story to the above - potential profit up more than value as deepening losses, mainly in IQE:IQE ate some of the rise.




Not much increase in cost, but value progressing very nicely.

The trading account looks like this after week 114



Weekly Change
Cash £151.47
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,900.01 (-18.1%) -£18.44
Potential profits £102.96
-£5.04
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £76.73 (39.7%) -£8.52
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.40 (-1.2%) +£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Some ups and some downs resulted in a net down. I've made a decision that I'm going to leave the max number of shares I own at 5 in this account. Any profit I make will be filtered out to my bank account, as I have a big holiday to pay for. As I remove cash from the account, the injection amount will drop. I'll still make sure there is always enough to spend £500 on the next share.




Hmm - gradual but relentless drop in value!

Bad idea to write this on a Saturday evening. I'm ravenous and there's a pizza and bottle of malbec with my name on it. No time for idle speculation as to what next week will bring.

Sunday 23 September 2018

Week 163 Review - Slight recovery

A slight reversal in fortune this week, with the combined portfolios climbing £1,766 and extending the buffer between value and cost to £10,373. The total portfolio value is now £97,546 so sneaking back towards the magic £100K.

Worst performer was N4P:N4 Pharma which announced the closure of it's re-formulation division and all focus now on its vaccine delivery system. I invested in this company because it had a diverse range of products and so the risk was well spread. Now it is a one product company and the risk has rocketed. Too late to do anything but watch and pray as the shares fell 16% on the announcement this week and are now 84% down. It's not worth taking an £800 loss just to get £200 back so I may as well hang on for the rest of the ride.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dropped 12% after an absolute fiasco. My faith in OPTI:Optibiotix and CEO Steve O'Hara have been severely dented this week. The price fell from 30p to 20p in a few days, then it appeared some significant investors had been informed of a placing at 19p of shares owned by OPTI:Optibiotix. When asked about this, Steve O'Hara said there was no intention to sell any of OPTI:Optibiotix's shares at this time. Yep - but what about a week ago? The placing was pulled and didn't happen, but not before the share price had crashed to almost the placing price. I knew I should have been merciless with this holding and sold at 30p to buy back later, but I wanted to wait for the announcement of human trials starting. Unfortunately that announcement coincided with the placing invitation so I never got the chance. It doesn't sit well with me and I have concerns given the amount of my portfolio invested in this company. I really hope it was just a cock-up, as until now everything I have seen was in the best interests of shareholders.

KIBO:Kibo Energy dropped 8% after announcing that the Power Purchase Agreement that was meant to be imminent probably isn't going to happen without the government going out to tender. I'm now really worried that they will start to question the development of a coal fired power station when the world is turning away from coal and to renewables. As an environmentalist it doesn't sit well with me that I'm involved in a coal company, but I stand to lose way too much money if I bail out on principle. It makes me pretty certain that I will sell these as soon as I get the chance. However they are 51% down and losing £1,355 at the moment.


RDT:Rosslyn Data are still creeping upwards. This time 6% and they are only 51% down which is a big improvement. Is there hope?

CAML:Central Asia Metals have finally reversed their slide and climbed 8% in what ought to be a steady climb. I'm hoping for the same with CEY:Centamin which also climbed 8% as the gold price recovers.

PAF:Pan African Resources did even better after people realised the drop after interims was over-done, and climbed 10% to go 12% up. However, with the dividend suspended this year I may take some profit and move these elsewhere.

RED:RedT Energy wins Share of the Week climbing 17%. These are now only 7% down and as big orders keep rolling in should become profitable very soon.




Just a slight tick up but the best week for a while.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £6.61
+£0
Portfolio cost £56,958.55
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £63,152.00 (10.9%) +£986.77
Potential profits £13,569.06
+£780.42
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £517.89 (10.9%) -£86.31
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £548.33 (11.6%) -£3.38
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 2p this week which covers the rise in potential profits, and recoveries in CEY:Centamin and RED:RedT Energy helped losses recover by around £200 on top of the increased profits.




As with the overall chart, a nice little tick up

The SIPP looks like this after week 147



Weekly Change
Cash £42.83
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £32,476.47 (16.4%) +£741.31
Potential profits £7,936.87
+£903.30
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £181.55 (7.8%) -£4.32
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £338.86 (14.6%) -£2.32
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Profits up thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix and CAML:Central Asia Metals, but the N4P:N4 Pharma debacle caused losses to deepen and erase some of the good.




Same shape chart as the others

The trading account looks like this after week 113



Weekly Change
Cash £151.47
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,918.45 (-17.4%) +£2.28
Potential profits £108.00
+£13.44
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £85.25 (44.1%) -£10.66
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.42 (-1.3%) +£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Well it's all happening here! TAP:Taptica crept up by £13 but deepening losses meant the overall effect was a £2 rise.




Still a long way off working like this is supposed to.

There was an announcement this week from the company that used to be AFPO:African Potash and is now called BLOC:Block Commodities. The shares are suspended as it looks like someone is going to buy them out. Well that's just brilliant - I bought the shares at 2.45p and they are now worth 0.02p. I wonder what I'll get for them - maybe 0.05p? Total disaster, but at least the poxy things will cease to be an embarrassment in my portfolio. My performance will be hammered by a £700 loss though.

That's it - I'm completely knackered after a great weekend of walking, birding, eating and drinking in Norfolk so I can't begin to think what might happen next week. Just want to go to bed...

Saturday 15 September 2018

Week 162 Review - Morale utterly crushed

What a truly dreadful week. I so wanted to stay above that magic £100K, but the portfolios crashed by £7,287 this week as OPTI:Optibiotix got absolutely hammered. That reduces the buffer between value and cost to £8,606 and reduced overall portfolio value to £95,981. Horrible misery having sat and watched my potential profits drop by £30K in a matter of weeks as traders play their games.

Worst performer by far was OPTI:Optibiotix dropping 16%. I guess I can't be too despondent as they are still up by 37% compared to a few months ago when they were making a loss. It just seems that good news drives the price down, as there was more good news this week. I desperately want to see the RNS announcing Go Figure products in a major UK retailer - it's been hinted at for about a year so surely something must be due soon. Plus, it would be far easier buying my shakes from a shop than getting them posted from the online store, especially as we'll no longer be allowed to receive personal parcels at work from next month. More misery!

KIBO:Kibo Energy dropped 6% as the never-ending wait for a Power Purchase Agreement continues. I'm beginning to think it's never going to happen and I'll just carry on sitting on a 43% loss or watch it deepen.

PAF:Pan African Resources had finally gone into profit, but a downbeat trading statement caused a 10% crash despite containing no surprises. Fortunately the net effect was a 5% drop over the week and these are still 2% in profit. I'm hoping if they can stay in profit after that, then they can stay in profit for good. Dividend ex-date is usually October, although I'm not expecting very much this year. Production starting up at the new mine ought to have a much more significant positive effect on the share price.

Only two shares making big gains this month. RED:RedT Energy reversed last week's 6% drop with a 6% rise, but i was expecting more after announcing a deal to provide energy storage for the NHS. Only one trial site to begin with, but lets face it - the technology works and it's likely they will end up supplying the whole estate - and that's huge.

WRES:W Resources wins Share of the Week after an 8% rise despite the fact I don't really like it and wish I'd never bought it. There is hope that the price will recover when they start producing next year. However their debts are massive, their share dilution epic, and I just don't like the CEO one bit. If I can sell without making a loss I'll be happy. I only invested £430 so ideally I'd get £500 back so there's enough to use on something else.

Actually, it's possible SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is Share of the Week. I just noticed that I forgot to add it to my weekly snapshot list on the blog, and I can't remember how much it's climbed this week. However it's up 21% overall and I'm sure this week's rise was more than 8% and I like it much more, so tough luck WRES:W Resources you've had your award nicked!




Only one word for that - misery!

Here's the ISA and share portfolios performance



Weekly Change
Cash £6.61
+£0
Portfolio cost £56,958.55
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £62,165.23 (9.1%) -£4,737.34
Potential profits £12,788.64
-£4,678.87
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £604.20 (12.7%) -£120.84
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £551.71 (11.6%) -£3.43
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

OPTI:Optibiotix is responsible for most of the damage, but losses deepened on top of the reduced profit, so all bad really.





Not happy.

The SIPP looks like this after week 146



Weekly Change
Cash £42.83
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £31,735.16 (13.8%) -£2,495.75
Potential profits £7,033.57
-£2,395.03
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £185.87 (8%) -£4.53
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £341.18 (14.7%) -£2.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Exactly the same story as above




Exactly the same misery as above

The trading account looks like this after week 112



Weekly Change
Cash £151.47
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,916.17 (-17.5%) -£18.14
Potential profits £94.56
-£16.80
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £95.91 (49.6%) -£13.70
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.44 (-1.3%) +£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Hoped I could sell TAP:Taptica this week and get into the black, but it dropped in value rather then continuing the re-rate. Ups and downs elsewhere ended up with losses deepening a tiny bit too.




Nope - can't think of anything positive to say about that either.

Glad that blog post is out of the way - no fun to write and probably even less to read.

Please let next week be better...

Sunday 9 September 2018

Week 161 Review - Another flat week

September didn't really start much different to how August ended, although a sell-off towards the end of the week would have resulted in a negative week if not for a 1p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix. The combined portfolios ended up £333 better off, with gap between cost and value £15,894 and total value £103,268.

Lots of big losers this week, the worst of which was TEK:Tekcapital dropping 11%. This one's in the trading account and a prime example of not letting posts on bulletin boards entice you into a company that you shouldn't have touched with a barge-pole. All the other similar IP investment shares are doing rubbish, and so is this one.

AMYT:Amryt Pharma dropped 10% for no apparent reason and is now back to making a loss

I thought CEY:Centamin had dropped as far as it was likely to when I bought it a few months back, but it's dropped 30% since then and 9% of that was this week.

RED:RedT Energy looked like it was on the way back to profit, but the last few weeks has been dropping relentlessly and fell 6% this week.

IKA:Ilika continues to slide based on no news whatsoever. It also fell 6% this week and is now 65% own. It's going to take a miracle to prevent wipe-out for this one, but it was a tiny investment.

TLOU:Tlou Energy also dropped 6% as the no-news slide continues. This is 34% down now from a price I considered a bargain when I first bought. What was that rule about falling knives?

Only three decent percentage risers this week. RDT:Rosslyn Data climbed 7% and there's a little momentum here now they seem to be winning more contracts. Still 57% down, but maybe a glimmer of hope. It's another tiny investment though.

PAF:Pan African Resources had a great week, with drilling results from a new project looking brilliant and a new mine about to start producing. The 10% rise will hopefully be just a starter as these were twice the current price not long ago and have continued to be profitable even on low gold prices. They are now 7% up and providing a rare patch of green in the portfolio.

Share of the Week is TAP:Taptica, with excellent results and a climb of 14% putting them 22% up in my trading account. I think they have quite a long way to go before losing steam, so I won't be selling just yet. When I do, it will put the trading account in profit, as they are up £111 and I only need £65 to get into the black.




It's quite nice to have a few weeks of consolidation at this new level. Hoping for a reduction in volatility over the next few weeks.

Here's the performance of the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £6.61
-£3.75
Portfolio cost £56,958.55
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £66,902.57 (17.5%) +£62.07
Potential profits £17,467.51
+£508.02
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £725.04 (15.3%) -£185.33
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £555.14 (11.7%) -£3.57
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Monthly charge taken from cash, potential profits up mostly thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, but deepening losses elsewhere wiped most of it out. Year 4 stats are still a bit mad thanks to the big sell in week 1, as we're only on week 5.




Same as the last chart.

Here's the SIPP after week 145



Weekly Change
Cash £42.83
-£13.17
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £34,230.91 (22.7%) +£269.41
Potential profits £9,428.60
+£254.86
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £190.40 (8.2%) -£6.19
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £343.53 (14.8%) -£2.78
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Similar story here, with monthly charges reducing cash and the big rise in PAF:Pan African Resources helping offset the deepening losses elsewhere. Year 3 performance is below target, but long term average is still well over the 10%.




Once again, remarkably similar to the chart above.

Here's the trading portfolio after week 111



Weekly Change
Cash £151.47
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,934.31 (-16.7%) +£2.28
Potential profits £111.36
+£73.92
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £109.61 (56.7%) -£18.27
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.46 (-1.3%) +£0.03
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

TAP:Taptica is rising very nicely which helped mitigate the losses from other stocks. I think it may have a few more weeks to run before I sell. No change anywhere else.



Value still well below the amount of cash I piled in to begin with.

That's it for this week. I'm late writing so will avoid musings of what might happen next week. we'll just have to wait and see...

Saturday 1 September 2018

Week 160 Review - Thank goodness August is over!

A small loss this week but basically flat, with very little of interest and very few big moving shares. The difference between cost and value worsened by £444 to stand at £15,560 and total portfolio value thankfully stayed above £100K at £102,951. Still perilously close to a morale-crushing dip below.

Worst performer was last week's Share of the Week RED:RedT Energy, which dropped 15% and gave up half of last week's gains. Just when I thought it may be creeping back towards profit, it's down by 24%.

Only one share had a climb of 5% or more this week, and so Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals. The climb was just 5% and this is still 45% down and in desperate need of some good news about something to recover my losses.

That's it - nothing else interesting - what a dull week!




At least the massive spike will have a little step in it now - and hopefully a valley.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £10.36
-£0
Portfolio cost £56,958.55
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £66,840.50 (17.3%) -£154.28
Potential profits £16,959.49
-£116.32
Yr 4 Dividends £29.56
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £910.37 (19.2%) -£303.45
Total Dividends £1,267.89
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £558.37 (11.8%) -£3.51
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

You can tell it's a week when the OPTI:Optibiotix share price remained unchanged. Tiny movements elsewhere meant not much happened.




The recent dip has been painful, but when I look at the last 6 months in the red, the current situation is amazing.

Here's the SIPP after week 144



Weekly Change
Cash £56.00
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £33,961.50 (21.8%) -£236.66
Potential profits £9,173.74
-£102.75
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £196.59 (8.5%) -£5.04
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £346.31 (14.9%) -£2.42
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Everything except TRX:Tissue Regenix either dropped or stayed the same this week. The drop in paper profits was CAML:Central Asia Metals taking a 3% hit, and there were another £130 of deepening losses.




All still looking good. Most impressed that this has only been in the red on 5 occasions in the last 12 months. A very well behaved portfolio.

The trading account looks like this after week 110



Weekly Change
Cash £151.47
-£499.46
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£499.46
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,932.03 (-16.8%) -£53.35
Potential profits £37.44
+£3.36
Year 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £127.88 (66.1%) -£25.57
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.49 (-1.3%) +£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

When IQE:IQE interims came out and the share price was hammered, I was too slow to react and get a bargain. However, I bought 478 shares at 101.99p costing £499.46 as I decided there was no more scope for bad news and the shorters would start to close. I was wrong and the price dropped to 97.75p yesterday, so I'm already down 9% and decidedly miffed.

Nearly everything else dropped too, except TAP:Taptica which climbed by 1% and gave me the extra £3 potential profits - Woohoo! They are up by 8% now, but it's only £37 so I really need some good results in a few weeks time so I can make the £65 for this portfolio to have broken even.

At least since the injection of an extra £2,000 this account has become much, much more interesting.




Still a long way to go before the value overtakes the cash I've injected.

Thursday saw the long-awaited OPTI:Optibiotix interims. My excitement levels had been really building - surely we would see signs of revenue, and maybe they would take the chance to give news of some more deals, as it's been 2 months since the last one.

Nope!

Revenues were dreadful - a meagre £80K. I was expecting Go Figure to have beaten that on it's own. The problem is the cutoff period was May, and all the new exciting stuff has kicked off since May, so I guess my optimism was a little guided by fantasy rather than reality.

The share price was absolutely hammered, but fortunately recovered by the end of the week, so ending flat was a good thing. Slightly frustrating that I sold all my VRS:Versarien shares to pile into OPTI:Optibiotix because they are so much nearer to revenue, only for VRS:Versarien to zoom ahead past 150p. My plan to buy back in below 100p after a spike because that's what happened to OPTI:Optibiotix looks like a complete failure. Clearly graphene is more sexy to the market than gut bacteria!

I must keep reminding myself that I'm still making 50% paper profit on OPTI:Optibiotix. That's a hell of a lot more positive than the losses I've been sitting on for so long. I must stop worrying about daily movements and focus on the massive revenue streams about to hit over the next 12 months, and that big SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dividend that will be ample reward for the frustrations of being a long term holder while all around you trade.