Week 302 Review - Everything drifting down yet again

Yet another tedious week of gentle drifting downwards, a worrying trend that I'm hoping won't continue all summer. The deficit between cost and value widened by £2,056 to £29,217 and portfolio value fell to £115,088.

Worst performer for a second week was JLP:Jubilee Metals as people take profits. I can't blame them as I took plenty. This sank by 23% of my purchase price, but is still up by 332%.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha dropped 8% as a major institutional investor offloaded most of their holding in a private placing at a discount to the share price. It's still up 32% and I anticipate will recover from this blip quickly.

TLOU:Tlou Energy has been drifting for a few weeks and fell another 6%, so even my SIPP holding that was recently in profit is down by 16% now.

Share of the Week once again goes to the only holding that was up by 5% or more. POLR:Polar Capital Holdings climbed 5% to go 57% up altogether. The review date for this is the end of June, but APAX:Apax Global Alpha is due for review on 1st June so I will need to re-calculate my magic formula spreadsheet next week. It took many hours last time, but with recent changes it will be interesting to see what's at the top. It won't be FXPO:Ferrexpo any more as they have more than doubled in share price. If my bond fund goes up by £100 in my work pension I should have enough to transfer another £2,000 at the end of June so I can use the re-calculated spreadsheet for that too, as I need much better discipline after having sunk most of my magic formula money into gut bacteria companies!

The decline continues

That's pretty much four months of continual decline. No wonder I'm writing this later every weekend - my heart just isn't in it at the moment.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 42 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£40.35		+£0
Portfolio cost	£70,691.67		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£55,726.57	(-21.2%)	-£1,365.42
Potential profits	£7,174.08		-£500.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£6,218.52		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£637.72	(17.4%)	-£15.56
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£26,645.13		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£397.72	(10.9%)	-£1.32
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	63%		+0%

Potential profits down by £500 thanks to the JLP:Jubilee Metals drop, but an additional £865 loss across the rest of the portfolio is bad.

The decline doesn't look too bad here, but it's deceptive due to injections and re-invested profits.

That better reflects the true horror of the situation.

The SIPP looks like this after week 286 overall and week 26 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£355.71		+£75.00
Portfolio cost	£70,584.17		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£57,245.13	(-18.9%)	-£721.12
Potential profits	£3,905.69		-£115.74
Yr 6 Dividends	£594.51		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,295.11		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£964.88	(26.5%)	-£38.60
Total Dividends	£2,661.59		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,754.55		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£343.87	(9.4%)	-£1.20
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Cash went up £75 thanks to a tax rebate from a contribution back in March, potential profits down £115 thanks to drops in APAX:Apax Global Alpha and CAML:Central Asia Metals, and losses deepened by an additional £600.

Still just above halfway between injection and cost so could be worse

As with the ISA, a very depressing downward trend recently which is flattening the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 252 overall and week 44 of year 5.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,461.08	(-38.5%)	+£29.93
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£65.36	(33.0%)	-£1.52
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.16	(8.7%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A little ray of sunshine thanks to a slight recovery in DDDD:4D Pharma means we're up this week, but I seem to be back locked into long term losses after a brief flurry of success.

Not much of a tick up, but at least it is up.

A long way to go to recover, and a long time until I can sell anything.

I should get my CAML:Central Asia Metals dividend next week, which will be a few hundred quid. Not enough to buy anything so I'll leave it alone and use it to boost whatever I buy next. If I sell APAX:Apax Global Alpha or POLR:Polar Capital when their review comes up then I'll be able to use this plus a little injection to get 2 new magic formula shares to replace the one.

The big news expected next week is the OPTI:Optibiotix annual results. The expectation is that they will be similar to the underwhelming trading statement earlier in the year, but with just a tiny hope that the outstanding royalty payments will be bigger than expected. I don't think they will be big enough to make any difference to the share price. We're stuck at these levels until some pretty earth shattering news comes through.

If the first SweetBiotix deal turns out to be a minor one and not a global brand, then we could sink further. I'm still peeved that our great launch in US retail turned out to be some crappy cookies that nobody will buy, when we were expecting Walmart own brands. If I have one criticism of OPTI it's that the facts sometimes don't match up to the expectations. Lets keep everything crossed for next week. Even just a 5p rise will make a big difference to reversing my recent declines.

Week 301 Review - Declines all over the place yet again

Another bleak week of declines around the portfolio say the deficit between cost and value increase by £3,551 to £27,160,  but total portfolio value dropped by less than £2,000 to £117,070 as I banked and re-invested some profit.

Worst performer was JLP:Jubilee Metals which fell 14% of my purchase price, but not before I'd flogged a few more. This is likely to be either top or bottom performer as long as I hold them, as my purchase price was so low compared to the current price even tiny moves appear significant.

TLOU:Tlou Energy did almost as bad, dropping 10% in my SIPP. I really thought I'd caught the bottom this time, but no.

DDDD:4D Pharma fell 9% and has been dropping like a rock since the Nasdaq listing. Really gutted about this as I invested big, and it also messed up my trading account strategy. American investors appear to be no more risk averse than UK investors.

CAML:Central Asia Metals had been on a great run but dropped 6% this week. They are still 48% up so I'm still moderately in love with them.

IQE:IQE have been hammered after the Nasdaq tech stocks took a dive. You can bet when they recover IQE stays exactly where it is!

Only one share with an increase above 5%, so IES:Invinity Energy wins Share of the Week climbing 6% on the back of announcing a joint battery development deal with Siemens Energy. They are still 68% down so not looking great.

Getting back towards halfway between injection and cost. Not good.

I guess it's coming down a bit slower than it went up, but highly disappointing.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 41 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£40.35		+£12.09
Portfolio cost	£70,691.67		+£1,621.51
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£57,091.99	(-19.2%)	-£2,359.04
Potential profits	£7,674.08		-£1,899.59
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£6,218.52		+£1,589.30
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£653.28	(17.9%)	+£155.84
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£26,645.13		+£1,589.30
Average monthly cash profit	£399.04	(10.9%)	+£21.63
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	63%		+3%

The drop in potential profits of £1,899 was mostly due to the £1,589 profits banked, but JLP:Jubilee Metals also fell after the sales and knocked some more off the profits. I sold 5,000 at 21.001p making £822.90 (362,2%) profit and another 5,000 later in the week at 19.8711p making £766.40 (337.3%) profit.

The initial sale was re-invested in 1,025 shares in DDDD:4D Pharma at 99.556p costing £1,032.39 which subsequently dropped in value, and 2,045 shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at 49.27p costing £1,019.52. Those remained flat.

The sales helped my annual performance greatly, and even long term performance improved by £21 a month to hit 10.9%.

The SIPP looks like this after week 285 overall and week 25 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£280.71		+£0
Portfolio cost	£70,584.17		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£57,966.25	(-17.9%)	-£1,099.66
Potential profits	£4,021.43		-£412.61
Yr 6 Dividends	£594.51		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,295.11		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,033.48	(27.5%)	-£41.81
Total Dividends	£2,661.59		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,754.55		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£345.07	(9.5%)	-£1.22
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Very little happened. Small drop in profits and larger drop in value overall as losses deepen. Ideally I need a sale to get over 10% performance, but can't see anything I want to get rid of - yet...

Seems a slower decline than the ISA

Seems much steeper on here!

The trading account looks like this after week 251 overall and week 43 of year 5.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,431.15	(-39.7%)	-£92.84
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£66.88	(33.8%)	-£1.60
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.23	(8.7%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Another really poor week where the best performer stayed flat. Year 5 performance still great, but long term performance still below target of 10%.

Almost back down to the injection line

Almost back to the lows of last year.

Late posting this week, so nothing more to add.

Week 300 Review - Even flatter than last week but Jubilee soars

An odd week, culminating in one of the smallest ever changes in value, but with some extreme swings along the way, and very different performances between the ISA and SIPP. The final position was an increase in the deficit between cost and value of £136 to £23,609, but thanks to an injection of new cash, and increase in portfolio value to £118,988.

DDDD:4D Pharma was the only share to have a big drop this week, but it's my second largest holding and I bought some more just before the main drop. It lost 8% this week and I'm now down by about £3,000, so as usual my timing of buying shares is hopelessly wrong. This is particularly frustrating as I bought it twice in my trading account on the assumption there would be a bounce after the Nasdaq listing, but the opposite has happened.

CAML:Central Asia Metals are still trading below their price before they bought a new mine a few years ago, but have been on a gradual rise and continued that with a 5% increase this week. My holding is now 54% up and making £3,499 potential profit, but I've also had £1,822 dividends with another big payout coming in a few weeks, and £1,800 profit from selling chunks. This has definitely been one of my best shares, although has spent long periods languishing at a loss despite still paying a hefty dividend and remaining profitable when metal prices crashed. Hopefully with all the money they are making now, we'll have another acquisition soon.

HUM:Hummingbird Resources has been a disaster in my trading account. I only invested a relatively small amount but it was meant to be for quick profit. The shares climbed 6% this week but are still down 36% and I doubt they will be back in profit for a long time.

JLP:Jubilee Metals scores Share of the Week again, and does it in style. This week it gained a magnificent 88% of my original purchase price to go 369% up and making £9,573 potential profit despite having sold some for £5,500 profit already. Given I held these for years with nothing happening, it goes to show that patience pays off. I just hope the same will be said for OPTI:Optibiotix one day.

This shows everything going up, but there was a £3,000 injection so this is misleading. The next chart will tell a truer tale...

This shows a tiny drop, and we're still dragging the trend line downwards.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 40 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£28.26		+£18.47
Portfolio cost	£69,070.16		+£2,011.54
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£57,829.52	(-16.3%)	+£1,334.39
Potential profits	£9,573.67		+£2,760.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£4,629.22		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£497.44	(13.6%)	-£26.61
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£25,055.83		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£377.41	(10.3%)	-£2.59
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	60%		-3%

I injected £2030 into the account because I can't stand to see OPTI:Optibiotix at these prices and not take advantage. I keep searching for why I'm wrong but have yet to find a reason not to keep adding. The purchase this week will allow me to sell my share account holding and still remain above 150,000 shares. I want to transfer the share account cash to my trading account as soon as OPTI gets into decent profit. I hoped that would be significantly earlier than this! I bought 3,930 shares at 50.88p costing £1,999.58. That almost matches the 3,965 I have in my share account so I can sell those whenever.

Cash is up slightly as I added £30 to cover fees as part of the injection. Potential profits are up by a massive £2,760 thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals, which mitigates the effect of the falls elsewhere and means the portfolio value increased by £1,334. It would have been significantly down if not for JLP. Performance is still above target, although the injection amount has increased which has knocked off 3% from my compound performance as it's based on injection amount.

Nice when everything points upwards

A good rise, but still below the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 284 overall and week 24 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£280.71		+£11.34
Portfolio cost	£70,584.17		+£1,009.56
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£59,065.91	(-16.3%)	-£1,010.16
Potential profits	£4,434.04		+£343.04
Yr 6 Dividends	£594.51		+£20.90
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,295.11		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,045.29	(28.7%)	-£44.65
Total Dividends	£2,661.59		+£20.90
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,754.55		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£346.29	(9.5%)	-£1.16
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	52%		-1%

I injected £1,000 into this account thanks to one of those irresistible credit card money transfer offers at 0% interest till September 2022. I had vowed not to do it again, but I won't have to start paying it off until my existing loans are cleared, and I felt this is a timely opportunity to buy top shares cheap so I had to take the plunge. I've been wrong in the past as I'm still sitting at a loss on the shares I bought "cheap" 4 years ago!

I used the cash to buy 898 shares of DDDD:4D Pharma for 111.092p costing £1,009.56. They promptly fell by 10p! I don't care as I now have 11,564 of these and I'm satisfied they will do well quite quickly. 765 of them are in my trading account, so those will get sold at a small profit, and I'll probably use some of the rest for trading, but always keeping a core holding of 10,000 shares.

Potential profits were up by £343 but that wasn't enough to counter the drop in DDDD:4D Pharma and the 1p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix, so the portfolio value is down by £1,010 if you discard the injection. The £20 dividend was from CMCL:Caledonia Mining. Long term performance took a bit of a hit due to the increase in injection amount.

Cost and injection up, but value flat.

Rather an alarming drop from the recent (very brief) high.

The trading account looks like this after week 250 overall and week 42 of year 5.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,523.99	(-35.8%)	-£59.86
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£68.48	(34.6%)	-£1.67
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.30	(8.7%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

A terrible week for DDDD:4D Pharma and small drop for IQE:IQE, but HUM:Hummingbird Resources helped reduce the losses to £59. No sign of being able to sell anything for ages.

A dreadful run of form.

At this rate the trend line will do a big pivot as we drag it flatter every week.

I'm not aware of anything interesting happening next week, so as usual I'll just be hoping for some cracking OPTI:Optibiotix news because when it comes, and it will come,  the re-rate will be swift and spectacular!

Week 299 Review - Flat as a pancake

For the second week in a row there were very few significant changes and only one significant loser, but a clear winner for Share of the Week. The deficit between cost and value reduced by a tiny £511 but still stands at £23,572 and total portfolio value is £116,073.

Worst performer was TLOU:Tlou Energy, which dropped 7% in my SIPP and is only £1 in profit now. My ISA holding only fell 3% but that was bought for a lot more money. The drop followed a progress update, which was surprising as I thought it was a good update.

Share of the week is JLP:Jubilee Metals which announced copper production starting at Project Roan. The initial reaction was subdued, but the shares ended up climbing 18% of cost value and are now 281% up.

Pretty flat

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 39 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£9.79		+£0
Portfolio cost	£67,058.62		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£54,884.61	(-18.2%)	+£401.02
Potential profits	£7,293.67		+£480.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£4,629.22		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£510.61	(14.7%)	-£13.44
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£25,055.83		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£378.73	(10.9%)	-£1.27
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Compound performance	63%		+0%

Potential profits up thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals and a few losses elsewhere meant portfolio value only went up £401. Performance still above target.

The SIPP looks like this after week 283 overall and week 23 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£269.37		+£0
Portfolio cost	£69,574.61		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£59,066.51	(-15.1%)	+£131.49
Potential profits	£4,091.00		+£122.39
Yr 6 Dividends	£573.61		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£5,295.11		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£1,089.94	(30.6%)	-£49.54
Total Dividends	£2,640.69		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,754.55		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£347.45	(9.8%)	-£1.23
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	53%		+0%

Hardly any change anywhere in one of the flattest weeks ever.

The trading account looks like this after week 249 overall and week 41 of year 5.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,583.85	(-33.3%)	-£21.43
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£12.18		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£651.51		+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit	£71.15	(35.5%)	-£1.75
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£17.37	(8.8%)	-£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

Another bad week with everything falling.

Trading account back to being rubbish after a brief good spell. Unfortunately the rate I'm banking profits isn't going to pay for my holiday on November!

Lets hope for a good week next week as my spirits are flagging.