Thursday 30 June 2016

Takeover Heaven

At last, one of the email alerts I've been looking forward to since I started investing - one of my companies has been taken over!

A great remedy for the misery of the last few weeks, as WLG:Wireless Group have been taken over by News Corp for a whopping 70% markup on the current price. That caused the current price to surge 67.7%. OK - I only have a pretty tiny holding costing £311.76, but it's now worth £539.85 making a £228 profit, and a special dividend from selling off UTV due in a few weeks. Yippee!

Not only that, but RCI:Rapidcloud have surged by 32.7% today, my nemesis share AFG:Aquatic Food has risen by 20% and KIBO:Kibo Mining by 11.1%.

The result of that and the other gains over the last three days means I've clawed back all the £1,700  lost on Monday plus £450 of the losses on Brexit Friday. This still leaves my main portfolio on a paper loss of £5,900 but it's a hell of a lot better than Monday's £7,800

Time to go to the pub for a celebratory pint!

Monday 27 June 2016

Post Brexit Trading Day 2 - Total Carnage

I was hoping Friday was a blip - an over reaction by the markets to the stupidity of the Brexit vote. I woke up feeling nervous though, as it had become clear the Brexit campaign had no plan for what to do next. Un-be-flippin-leivable!!

Add to that the suicidal self destruction of the Labour Party rather generously diverting all the attention away from the mayhem in the Tory Party, and I was left in dumbfounded despair.

So it shouldn't have been a surprise that the market would collapse even further. Amazingly the biggest faller wasn't a house builder - it was LOOK:Lookers which fell 22.9% and has the honour of being my first share to be standing at a loss of over £1,000 all on its own.

The house builders weren't far behind, with BDEV:Barratts down 19.4%, RDW:Redrow down 14.6% and TW.:Taylor Wimpey down 14.9%. The overall result was a loss of £1,700 in a day and the paper loss on my main portfolio now standing at -£7,818 or 21.1%.

The merest glimmer of hope comes from my pension fund, which is still £385 in profit. The trouble is, one more day like today and it won't be.

What's so frustrating is knowing what an amazing buying opportunity this is, and watching it slip away through lack of capital. There's only the gold mines rising in value and I have no intention of selling those while this gold rally continues. Lack of capital when you need it most - I now see why Warren Buffett always keeps 10% in cash. If I did the same I would have a £5,000 war chest to go bargain hunting with. It may look like it's not working for you, but if it's available at short notice, it can do so much more work! Must remember that for when this all dies down.

So I sit and wait it out. Not sure if the wait will be weeks, months or years. Fortunately I'm investing on a scale of years, so as long as I don't panic, it should turn out alright in the end.

Friday 24 June 2016

Unmitigated Disaster and Week 46 Review

I woke up in my comfy chair at 4:30am and fumbled for the remote in my hung over state, having failed to remain awake in front of the referendum news after a night in the pub. I had only been awake long enough to see Gibraltar voting by 96% to stay in, so was dreaming of a stock market rally the following day and finally getting shot of those troublesome shares that just wouldn't quite get into profit.

So I wasn't really prepared for the shock that hit me when I saw the Brexit crowd were 52-48 up and we were on the way out of the EU. I staggered up to bed in a daze, hoping it was just a dream.

The Today programme stirred me from sleep at 7am and it soon became clear the nightmare was true. What on earth had just happened? How could 52% of a whole country be so bloody stupid!

As I started to ponder how long it would take for the SNP to declare another independence referendum (not very long at all as it turned out), and how long it would take for the realisation to sink in that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland would become a nightmare, I braced myself for the inevitable collapse of my portfolio. Lo and behold, it was obliterated.

Not surprisingly the biggest faller this week was a house builder, with TW.:Taylor Wimpey dropping 18%. The fact they fell 29.3% today shows how well they had done in the run up to the referendum to limit the losses to 18%. 

Next biggest faller was CRL:Creightons by 13%. This was very disappointing as these have been very very slowly climbing into profit, but are now back at a loss. BDEV:Barratt Developments dropped 12%, as did WRES:W Resources. KIBO:Kibo Mining, WRL:Wentworth Resources and CWR:Ceres Power Holdings all dropped 11% and HMI:Harvest Minerals, IKA:Ilika and TND:Tandem Group dropped 10%.

Amazingly, amongst all that carnage there were two double-digit risers. PAF:Pan African Resources climbed 10%, and I was surprised the other gold mines didn't replicate this. However, share of the week is WLG:Wireless Group which climbed 14% for absolutely no discernible reason whatsoever.

Here's the stats I just didn't want to see



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £38,126.03
+£1,098.05
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £31,636.40 (-17%) -£1,800.09
Potential profits £1,200.91
-£80.03
Dividends £543.20
+£17.66
Profit from sales £3,354.73
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £362.22
-£6.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 11.4%

The portfolio cost went up by £1,098 as I used up my war chest prematurely. With hindsight saving it for some house builders today would have been a better bet than my battery company and Botswanan gas company. Last week I lost £1,100 and this week I lost another £1,800 as the portfolio plunged to a total paper loss of £6,489.62

Great news was the potential profits only dropping £80. This was thanks to the gold mines, which increased their profits and helped negate some of the losses. A £17.50 dividend arrived from TON:Titon Holdings today, and 16p came from the fractional left-overs following the consolidation of AVM:Avocet Mining shares. That meant the average monthly profit only dropped by £6.35 this week.

The SIPP looks like this at Week 30




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £12,440.09
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £12,915.48 (+3.8%) -£158.33
Potential profits £1,526.17
-£24.48
Dividends £258.55
+£0
Profit from sales £706.12
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £136.35
-£4.70
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 13.2%

No new purchases, and much relief to see the value only drop by £158, with a tiny reduction in potential profits as most of them come from gold mines or shares that felt little impact. No sales or dividends, so average monthly profit drops a tiny bit. £70 arrived from the tax man, but I'm not sure it's worth doing anything with it if the commission would be more than 10% so will hold for later.

So, all in all a desperate week following on from a desperate week. The main portfolio is at its worst since I started, and far worse than the September and February crashes. I don't know what next week has in store. I hope the sense of panic dies down and we start the long haul back to recover all the losses. It's frustrating that I didn't build a better war chest for this eventuality, but I didn't think for a minute our public would fall for the rubbish spouted by the leave campaign. How wrong I was!!

Monday 20 June 2016

The Big £50K

It may only be for a limited period, but a huge milestone was reached this morning when my total amount invested passed £50,000 earning a gigantic Woohoo!

I say it's for a limited period as I had "borrowed" £1,000 from my current account just after payday to take advantage of the Brexit volatility. However, if I was going to do that I would have bought something like LLOY:Lloyds Bank on Friday. Unfortunately I found two shares over the weekend that were so exciting I got distracted and bought for the long term in my ISA instead.

This does leave me with a slight dilemma - that I need to extract that £1,000 back into my current account by about 6th August when it will run out. I also need to extract my holiday money at some point before September, so there's no way the portfolio cost will remain above £50K unless something amazing happens.

In the meantime, the first share that caught my eye during weekend research was IKA:Ilika. This is a company that has patented a new type of lithium battery. It's far smaller than a standard lithium battery, and much more resilient, coping with -20 to 100 degrees C. They have been working with ARM:ARM Holdings who have a certain pedigree, and have recently launched their first battery.

Their model is similar to ARM - they will licence the production of the battery rather than produce it themselves. With the evolution of the "Internet of Things" these batteries which are tiny and can be trickle fed by solar cells could be really important. I decided it's also high risk, as they seem to be better at engineering than marketing, so just invested £565.65 on 1,000 shares at 55.6699p. Unfortunately the 5% spread means I'm down £47 until they move upwards.

The second company that caught my eye is TLOU:Tlou Energy. They plan to produce natural gas to fuel power stations in Botswana, a country with a very unreliable electricity supply. They aim to provide power both to households and to a major mine that currently relies on diesel to generate electricity. They are already extracting pilot supplies, and should be in full production in a couple of years. The board of directors have a strong track record, and Botswana is a stable country, with a huge amount of government support for this project. I bought 12,767 shares at 4.1p costing £532.40. As with the share above, this is still fairly high risk and I've decided to limit my exposure to these types of shares to around £500 until I'm absolutely confident, then I will add. There's a massive 12% spread on this one, so I'm already down £65 until that is erased.

Today was a great day for share prices, clawing back about £350 of the £1,500 I lost last week on the portfolio value. Although my FTSE companies did brilliant, I actually had more shares fall in value than gained, so losses in gold mines and other small cap companies took the gloss off the FTSE risers. Hopefully the opinion polls will keep as they are now and continue whittling down my losses, as the alternative doesn't bear thinking about.

Saturday 18 June 2016

Week 45 Review

Thanks to the whole Brexit fiasco, this has been a catastrophic week. Thankfully there was some respite on Friday, but not enough to prevent the biggest ever drop in weekly portfolio value. Most shares dropped by 4 to 6%. The biggest loser was RCI:Rapidcloud, dropping 14% and into loss. This was over £200 in profit a few weeks ago and is now at £122 loss, with no news or justification. It's not even a British company so Brexit can't affect it.

JLP:Jubilee Platinum dropped 11%, HGM:Highland Gold dropped 10% despite the increase in gold price, SXX:Sirrius Minerals dropped 10% and TRX:Tissue Regenix also dropped 10% so I bought some more.

As there were only 4 shares that increased this week, I think I can name them all. TRK:Torotrak climbed 2% but it's largely irrelevant as they are down 34% overall and I hardly have any. CWR:Ceres Power Holdings climbed 3% which is a relief after their recent slip. My initial investment in these is up 61% but my top-up is down 4%.

The other two risers were unsurprisingly gold mines, with PAF:Pan African Resources climbing 5% and already £65 in profit. Share of the week is AVM:Avocet Mining, climbing 17% and now only making a loss of £149. Stupid, stupid, stupid - I say that whenever I think of my moment of Avocet purchasing madness at the peak of a spike.

Here's the performance of the main portfolio - it makes me weep to read




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £37,027.98
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £32,338.44 (-12.7%) -£1,151.85
Potential profits £1,280.94
-£309.72
Dividends £525.54
+£0
Profit from sales £3,354.73
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £368.57
-£8.38
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 11.9%

A 3.1% drop in portfolio value in just a week. Bugger! Only £308 of that was decreasing profits. The rest was deepening loss. Not even any dividends to soften the blow, so the average monthly profit takes a dip and is now running below my % loss on portfolio value.

The SIPP looks like this at week 29




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £12,440.09
+£400.59
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £13,073.81 (+5.1%) -£410.77
Potential profits £1,550.65
-£155.79
Dividends £258.55
+£142.96
Profit from sales £706.12
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £141.05
+£17.09
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 13.6%

The portfolio cost went up when I re-invested some dividends, and topped up with £200 from my bank account to make it worthwhile. I bought 2,121 shares in TRX:Tissue Regenix for 18.4649p costing £400.59, as this is one of my big four favourites and I own less in this than the others. Fortunately the price went up after I bought them, but the combined SIPP holding of 6,808 shares is losing £53, unlike the 3,600 in my ISA which are making £87 profit.

Potential profits went down by almost half the overall loss, which as a percentage of the portfolio was bigger than the loss on my main portfolio, not helped by the HGM:Highland Gold drop of 10%. Best news was the dividend from CAML:Central Asia Metals which was a whopping £142. I can't even begin to understand why the share price has tanked for a company that is making profits despite the low price of copper, and has now paid out more in dividends than they raised from their initial stock market float. The drop in profits was fully expected and the current share price gives a PE value of just 10. I must buy some more while they're cheap!

The dividend worked wonders on my monthly stats, increasing the average profit by £17 a month and taking the projected return over 13%.

Not sure what next week will bring. I've stashed £1,000 in my normal share account in case there's a gigantic crash and I can get a bargain. Looks like Friday morning may have been the time to buy, so I may have missed the boat, but it's nice to have it there just in case an opportunity arises.

Saturday 11 June 2016

Week 44 Review

The week started pretty well, but yet again it ended badly. This time it ended really badly, with panic selling in the stock market over the risk of Brexit. Only one double-digit loser amongst the carnage, with AFPO:African Potash dropping 10% as it continues to lose the confidence of investors. There was one double digit riser, and shock horror it's a gold mine, with HGM:Highland Gold rising 13% and undoing the damage from the 14% drop 2 weeks ago.

I had a major shock when I first checked my portfolio yesterday to see AVM:Avocet Mining had gone up by about 950%. Of course I had forgotten that was the day they consolidated 10 shares into 1, so this one is still making a thumping great loss. I just hope gold keeps climbing as I've bought back in for another ride.

Lots of buying and selling this week to confuse the weekly stats



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £37,027.98
+£48.83
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £33,490.29 (-9.6%) -£464.89
Potential profits £1,590.66
-£230.28
Dividends £525.54
+£0
Profit from sales £3,354.73
-£27.07
Average monthly cash profit £376.95
-£11.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 12.2%

Overall cost up slightly, as although my sales this week made a net loss, there was some dividend cash lying around to invest on top of the proceeds of the sales.

I've removed the share price performance line, as I decided it was completely irrelevant. Only the sell price really matters, and removing it will save me time writing this review.

Portfolio loss of £464 is upsetting, half of which is decreasing profits and half deepening losses. My sales at a loss do a bit more damage than I'd hoped to the average monthly profit, but still keep me on track for above 10% return after a year if I don't sell anything else at a loss.

Here's the SIPP at week 28



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £12,039.50
+£159.08
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £13,083.99 (+8.7%) -£203.91
Potential profits £1,706.44
+£75.78
Dividends £115.59
+£0
Profit from sales £706.12
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £123.96
-£4.60
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 12.4%

Portfolio value increased by the regular monthly savings, ending up with 74 JLG:John Laing Group shares at 217.768p and 78p stamp duty costing £159.07. This brings my holding up to 213 at an average price of 220.2358p costing £475.94. They are currently down by £32. I do really like this way of regular saving, as it means you don't mind so much if the price drops just before the automatic investment, as you get more shares.

Potential profits have increased thanks to HGM:Highland Gold and AA:Alcoa which is back in profit now, but losses deepened resulting in an overall loss of £203. CAML:Central Asia Metals is a total disaster, down another 9% this week and now losing £225. I really don't understand, as even at the current copper price they can still make big profits. If I had spare cash I would get more while they are low.

No sales or dividends so average monthly profits dip slightly.

The SIPP has £70 cash from dividends, and there's another £70 from the tax man in 10 days, and the dividend from CAML:Central Asia Metals is due soon. This will give me about £250 to either hold as cash or invest and take the hit on commission. I'm tempted to get more CAML:Central Asia Metals, but they are expensive to £250 won't go very far. There's also ARL:Atlantis Resources and WRES:W Resources. Both are down and I like both. The advantage of W Resources is you get loads and loads of shares for £250, but that's only worth anything if they all increase in value, and this share is so diluted I suspect there will be a consolidation at some point. Maybe I'll top up on whatever is down the most at the time, as that's the biggest bargain.

I can confirm that the total portfolio cost has now gone above £49,000 so we can have an official "Woohoo!", but mustn't forget the holiday money I still need to extract. I'll just keep everything crossed we vote to remain in Europe and there's a rally after 23rd June, because the next 2 weeks are going to be toxic! Just £1,000 more to the gigantic £50K milestone...

Thursday 9 June 2016

More Gold, More Potash and some Platinum

I decided to make a few changes this week. I had been watching some commodity stocks slipping downwards and decided now was the time to strike, and fingers crossed the timing was just right.

First I wanted to get some more cash in my ISA. I had enough to load £650 from my current account on Monday, as well as some dividends I could transfer, so I bought SLP:Sylvania Platinum. I already own about £2,000 worth of JLP:Jubilee Platinum, but they are not actually producing platinum yet and are not affected by platinum price rises. With the platinum price starting to sneak up, I wanted to find an under-valued producer. I think Sylvania is the share I've been looking for. They have been cutting costs, so should be able to turn in a decent profit and are talking about paying dividends. I bought 10,065 at 7.125p costing £726.08.

In order to finance this I sold the SGRO:Segro shares that were in my standard share account, and transferred that back to my current account. I only made £15.56 (2.4%) but that nearly doubles with the £12.72 dividend, and I only held them for a very short time. I still have 225 of these in my ISA for the long term.

Next I bottled it with my SPD:Sports Direct shares. They climbed 5% on the day of the parliamentary hearing, but the headlines were rife with tales of big fines, and the reason I'd bought the shares was that they would make decent profits over the summer from Euros and Olympics. If those were zapped by fines I would get nowhere. Although the price I sold them was higher than I paid, I did lose £4.60 (0.8%). I don't really care, because I used the capital to get back into PAF:Pan African Resources. One of my best performing shares in the past and due to pay a big dividend in October. I bought 6,999 shares at 14.935p plus £5.23 stamp duty costing £1,059.48. Since then Sports Direct have dropped on both the last 2 days whereas Pan African have risen enough to clear the 2% spread and buying and selling commission and leave me £13.41 in profit.

Next I finally got shut of my PTEC:Playtech shares. These were one of the first I bought, but plummeted after two acquisitions fell through. I've been waiting for them to do something with their cash ever since, but have run out of patience. They kept almost getting back into profit, but I ended up selling for a £38 (4.8%) loss.

I have been watching HMI:Harvest Minerals for some time. They are about to start producing potash in Brazil and will be my 3rd potash share. They seem to be targeted by pump-and-dump activity, but I think look like a reasonable long term company anyway. They had just dropped from a recent spike, so I thought this might be their bottom point. I kept the Playtech money in my standard account, with the intention of buying these short term and taking out any profits in August to pay for my holiday. I bought 17,273 shares at 4.7p costing £820.78. Yesterday they rocketed by 20% which covered commission, the 5% spread and left me in profit. Unfortunately today they dropped 10% and so I'm down on the spread and losing £55. Keeping my fingers crossed this will give me some profit to help pay for my holiday, as AVM:Avocet Mining certainly won't be in profit by then, which was my initial attempt at getting holiday cash.

Tomorrow my automatic monthly SIPP investment in JLG:John Laing Group kicks in which will raise the portfolio cost by £160 and take it past £49,000 overall for another "Woohoo!" Getting so close to the massive milestone of £50K...


Friday 3 June 2016

Week 43 Review

Not a bad week, with some gains on most days offset by frustration on other days, as my shares earmarked for sale sneak closer to being in profit before dropping down again. No double digit losers this week, but two double digit risers. NTBR:Northern Bear climbed 11% after a positive trading statement. That was enough to significantly reduce my losses to just £34

Share of the week is KIBO:Kibo Mining, which climbed 25% this week and is at a healthy £234 profit. I'm almost tempted to sell, as they keep doing this and then dropping again, but I'm still impressed with them and so I'm holding on for greater glories.

Meanwhile the relentless climb of GVC:GVC Holdings continues, moving up another 6% after 9% last week. My shares in GVC are now up by 49% altogether, with a £1,103 profit plus another £236 profit I banked a few months ago. Once they get into the FTSE 250 and the tracker funds buy them, they should jump more, and the way things are going will be knocking on the door of the FTSE 100 before too long.

Here's the main portfolio performance this week




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £36,979.15
+£0
Portfolio value (share price) £35,073.79 (-4.5%) +£311.77
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £33,906.35 (-8.3%) +£340.26
Potential profits £1,820.95
+£355.55
Dividends £525.54
+£38.72
Profit from sales £3,381.80
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £388.44
-£5.64
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 12.6%

No new purchases, and the second week in a row with £300+ gains. Potential profits were up more than the weekly rise, so a few losses deepened. Mainly companies like SPD:Sports Direct and VEC:Vectura that have swung from profit to loss.

A couple of dividends this week. LOOK:Lookers are really struggling, down 19% and a loss of £425. I still can't see why as they are trading strongly. Their £23.76 dividend was most welcome. The other £14.96 came from PTEC:Playtech, which is one of my shares that keeps threatening to go into profit and then dropping back again.

The dividends helped prop up the average monthly profit so the decline is only £5.64 a month. I just have 9 more weeks to try and keep this performance up, but if I don't get another dividend or sell another share, my performance after 52 weeks will be £321 a month which is 10.4%, so I'm guaranteed to have cleared 10% in my first year, albeit with the paper value of the portfolio down by 8.3%. I'm deliriously happy with that, as when I started I was targeting 6%.

The SIPP looks like this at week 27



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £11,880.42
+£400.27
Portfolio value (share price) £13,437.28 (+13.6%) +£65.34
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £13,128.82 (+10.5%) +£109.31
Potential profits £1,630.66
+£48.08
Dividends £115.59
+£14.28
Profit from sales £706.12
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £128.56
-£3.40
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost 13%

Another £400 added from the tax man and dividends, and a small injection to round it up. The portfolio value is up by over £100 and most of that is actually a reduction in losses, as the potential profits only rose by £48. Much of this was the recovery on ALM:Allied Minds, which rose 5% and is now only down by 9%. This is a very volatile share!

The £14.28 dividend was from SLI:Standard Life Property Investment, which I sold recently. It's more than I was expecting, so feeling a little sorry I sold them now. I used the cash to by the county's most shorted share CLLN:Carillion, which is down by just 1% and losing £32 so far. I do hope the shorters get stung when this one rebounds.

The dividend helps reduce the decrease in monthly profit to just £3.40 a month and we're still healthily over 10% with the portfolio itself over 10% up as well. Absolutely stunning performance, and really making me think about diverting my work pension into here when they close down the final salary scheme. I'll be leaving that where it is though!

Next week has a few points of interest to look forward to. AMYT:Amryt Pharma gives its first trading statement on Thursday, which will either cause an even worse collapse in the share price or might reduce my £450 losses. I keep hoping I can sell off some of my laclustre shares, but they just won't go into profit. Poor economic results in USA could hold the Fed off raising interest rates and could let gold creep back upwards as I strive to get my one loss-making gold mine AVM:Avocet Mining into profit rather than £376 loss. I still howl at the moon every time I remember that moment of stupidity as I jumped on the bandwagon just as the share hit the top of its spike - ouch!