Thursday 29 June 2017

Loss on Aquatic Food vindicated

Ever since I sold my holding in AFG:Aquatic Food I've been wondering if I did the right thing. Taking a £1,100 loss to "rescue" £900 would only be justified if AFG:Aquatic Food went belly up.

I didn't want it to, as that would pretty much write off any trust in a Chinese company on AIM, as this one seemed like the real deal.

Today they announced the suspension of shares on AIM due to difficulties getting money out of China to pay for the annual accounts to be completed before the regulatory cutoff date on 30th June.

Well, that's them screwed then!

This has been a painful lesson, but one which I hope will help me in the future

1) Avoid any Chinese stocks on AIM - in fact, given the RapidCloud debacle when I fortunately got out in time, could extend to most Asian stocks as they were based in Malaysia.

2) If it looks too good to be true then it probably is

3) AIM is rife with fraud. The regulation is pitiful and private investors are seriously exposed to being ripped off

It's not just Asia though - Africa has come up with similar stocks. I'm likely to lose my £700 in AFPO:African Potash, as that's just extending the agony with very little hope of survival.

At least my disasterous UK companies BLUR:Blur Group and TRK:Torotrak are only going to go under because of crappy business models or unsellable products - there's no question of fraud, just incompetence. Fortunately the losses when these go under will be minuscule, as they were from the first few weeks of investing when I wasn't aware of the impacts of spread and commission on small purchases.

So it's been a salutary lesson, and one I hope will improve my future decisions...


Friday 23 June 2017

Week 98 Review

This week started really well with a £700 increase, but Tuesday cancelled that out and by Thursday with the crazy spreads being published on Advfn, it was down by £2,400. I abandoned Advfn until they sort their system out and trawled through each share in my account to get the correct bid and offer prices, and so was slightly relieved to find the difference between cost price and value only down by £588 this week. With a big purchase yesterday, the portfolio value is now £66,817 and the buffer protecting me from going into the red is £2,864.

By far the worst performer was BLUR:Blur Group, which declared they are burning cash way faster than they are earning it and set out series of measures to try and save the company. The share price tanked and the value of my holding went down 18%. It's now down 99% from my purchase price and worth £1 but thank goodness I bought it when I didn't have a scooby what I was doing and am only losing £108.

No other double-digit losers, but some troubling and expensive losers. JLP:Jubilee Platinum dropped back below 4p and lost 9% of their value, which is very disappointing given the potential of the company. However, when the BoD just keep shooting themselves in the foot, it's not that surprising. News on Hernic earnings should see this turn around.

RDT:Rosslyn Data dropped 8% and is now losing 82% of the purchase value and is worth just £68, losing £307. This was a toe-dip and I'm glad it was only that.

CAML:Central Asia Metals had a bad week, losing 6% but still up by 30%, making £1,022 profit and having dished out an additional £473 in dividends. What a company!

Nemesis Share OPTI:Optibiotix finished the week on the same price as it started, but my purchase at 66.7p was below the 68p closing bid price, so my purchase this week has cleared spread and commission.

There were a few double-digit risers this week. TND:Tandem Group have been stagnated for a long time, but climbed 13% this week after a very strong AGM statement. With only 4.7 million shares in issue, these are staggeringly illiquid and so when they move up or down it tends to be quite extreme. They are still 27% down and losing £297 so I'll be watching them with interest for a while yet.

There's no point trying to bet on Share of the Week. Nothing else came remotely close to the 20% rise in value in my ISA account of Star Share IQE:IQE. These are up by 187% now and making £3,664 paper profit, and the SIPP holding is making £2,119 paper profit. Stunning! If it wasn't for IQE my combined portfolios would be well in the red! If I sold them all now and made £5,700 profit I wouldn't have to sell anything else for ages, but they've only just started so if anything I should be buying more.




A slight narrowing of the gap, but it's not bad.

The combined ISA and share accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £45,614.89
+£2,275.08
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £46,336.05 (1.6%) -£589.25
Potential profits £6,976.08
+£183.13
Yr 2 Dividends £486.29
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £2,401.06
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £268.46 (7.1%) -£5.97
Total Dividends £1,154.22
+£0
Total Profit from sales £6.241.32
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £322.69 (8.5%) -£3.32
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Big jump in cost thanks to my bank loan to fund a last purchase (honest) of OPTI:Optibiotix and take them to 30% of my holding. Potential profits actually increased thanks to IQE:IQE but a combination of reducing profits elsewhere and deepening losses meant a £589 reduction in value. With the portfolio value climbing so much, there was a bigger than usual impact on the performance percentage, now 1.5% below target of 10%.




Just about stays in the black, but way too close for comfort.

The SIPP looks like this after week 82



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £17,853.50
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £20,146.31 (12.8%) -£12.70
Potential profits £3,581.19
+£96.20
Yr 2 Dividends £294.96
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £1,596.81
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £265.96 (17.9%) -£9.17
Total Dividends £708.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £3,946.67
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £240.64 (16.2%) -£2.97
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

As with the other accounts, the profits are up thanks to IQE:IQE but most of the gain is lost by CAML:Central Asia Metals dropping and with deepening losses elsewhere, the overall effect is a £12 drop in value. Performance is still more than acceptable with year 2 still ahead of long-term average.




A consolidation week I think.

Oh must I? OK - here's the horrid trading account after week 48



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £486.05
+£0
Cash £79.63
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £335.55 (-30.8%) +£13.90
Potential profits £0
+£0
Dividends £0
+£0
Profit from sales -£22.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.06 (-5.1%) +£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Almost a year now and a complete pile of poo. REDS:RedstoneConnect recovered last week's losses but is showing no sign of the meteoric climb I thought was on the cards when I first bought them. I'm ashamed to admit that I fell for a load of ramping hype on the bulletin board - let that be a harsh lesson!

This share has saved me making other mistakes though - I was all enthused by TRIN:Trinity after it had whizzed up over a few days from about 12p to 20p. The bulletin board was full of enthusiasm, but remembering my experience with REDS:RedstoneConnect I watched instead of leaping in. It's now trading at 10.75p. Ouch!




Pants!

I don't know of anything particularly interesting due to happen next week. My main hope is that OPTI:Optibiotix will stage an amazing turnaround, coz then I'll look dead good for having bought more shares with my new loan while they were rock-bottom.

If they drop further then I'll look like a tit.

I wonder what's more likely?...

Thursday 22 June 2017

One last Optibiotix push

Something is severely wrong with the market. I expressed disbelief that following the signing of a 3-year supply contract for LPLDL® with HLH Biopharma, the share price of OPTI:Optibiotix had dropped back below 70p.

Yesterday it dropped further.

It's crazy!!

OPTI:Optibiotix are in contract negotiations with other potential LPLDL® suppliers after interest from 30 companies at the recent Vitafoods event. Each contract signed will be the equivalent of free money - the expenditure has been completed on the R&D and a manufacturer has been appointed - who will also be paying 50% of their proceeds to OPTI:Optibiotix.

All this is just for LPLDL®, and given the news time granted to a potential cholesterol-reducing injection yesterday (not available for 5 years), the fact OPTI:Optibiotix have something ready to market now that does exactly that, should be another signal of the potential revenues.

Add to that Slimbiome sales just kicking off, promised free shares in SBTX:SkinBiotherapeutics and the launch of Sweetbiotix in late 2017 to early 2018, as well as a platform designed to discover further applications for the microbiome, and the short, medium and long term potential is just staggering.

I've got a standing order for £200 a month going into a savings account. It's meant to be for emergencies or paying for holidays. I decided last night to divert it for 12 months in order to take advantage of the market insanity around OPTI:Opibiotix.

I took out a 12 month loan for £2,250 paying off at just under £200 a month and cancelled my savings standing order. This will cost me £167 interest over the year. I expect to make that back within a week when the market corrects.

This morning I bought 3,393 OPTI:Optibiotix shares at a ridiculous 66.7p costing £2,275.08.

That takes my total holding to 26,650 costing £19,175.37 and comprising exactly 30% of my portfolio. The average price per share is 72p after buying a big chunk of my holding at 90p and averaging that down over the last 18 months.

With the bid price at 65.5p I'm sitting on a £1,755.46 loss. I really, really wish I'd only just discovered this share!!

OPTI:Optibiotix is my Nemesis Share by a wide margin. The nearest contender is KIBO:Kibo Mining losing £979.89.

I am absolutely convinced it will come good, and I feel it will come good very soon. The hard work has been done, the contracts are being negotiated, the CEO is brilliant and genuinely cares about his shareholders, the science is tested and written up in respected journals, the potential market is global and gigantic, the long-term model is low cost and high margin and the strains are protected by IP.

Maybe I'm writing all this to convince myself I've just done the right thing? I have broken the fundamental 10% rule twice in taking my holding to 30% of my portfolio. Maybe I'm missing something? If I am then I'm an idiot. If not, then now I just need to sit back and watch the story unfold...

Friday 16 June 2017

Week 97 Review - Buffer is re-instated

A really good week with some stunning rises that even a typically feeble Friday couldn't undo. The portfolio value increased by £1,697 to £65,130 and re-instated a decent buffer of £3,453.

No double-digit losers yet again. The worst performer was frustratingly OPTI:Optibiotix which dropped 4% following news of a 3-year deal to supply LPLDL® to HLH Biopharma. The first of many deals and guaranteed income, so what happens? The share price drops! Sometimes my patience is tried to the very extreme!

There were loads of non-movers this week and very few losses, but OPTI:Optibiotix at nearly 30% of my holding has quite a big negative effect when it drops. Fortunately the rest of the team were in much better spirits.

AMYT:Amryt Pharma continued to rise, climbing another 7% and now making paper profits of £1,938 (31%).

TLOU:Tlou Energy is worth a mention, as it's been lagging lately but gained 9% this week and despite me selling a big chunk a while ago, the remainder are still up by 18% but that's only £98 profit.

First double-digit riser should have been Share of the week, as with a 25% rise on the back of a great trading statement, CWR:Ceres Power are now £594 (33%) up.

Share of the Week shouldn't be a surprise. I was worried when it got to 70p that there would be a trace back, and I know a lot of people sold. This week IQE:IQE increased in value by a staggering 37% in my ISA and is now making £3,271 (167%) profit. In my SIPP the later purchase is up by £1,785 (67%). The more I look at the potential sales the more excited I get. If only they would switch to the main market, they might get taken more seriously by the big institutions, and then anything could happen.



The gap is almost back to the most it's ever been.

The share and ISA portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £43,339.81
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £44,650.22 (3%) +£1,432.35
Potential profits £6,792.95
+£1,599.67
Yr 2 Dividends £486.29
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £2,401.06
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £274.43 (7.6%) -£6.24
Total Dividends £1,154.22
+£0
Total Profit from sales £6.241.32
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £326.01 (9.0%) -£3.40
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Back into the black, a whopping increase in potential profits slightly marred by OPTI:Optibiotix deepening in loss, but not enough to spoil the party.



Volatile? You betcha!

The SIPP looks like this after week 81



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £17,853.50
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £20,159.01 (12.9%%) +£278.84
Potential profits £3,484.99
+£525.37
Yr 2 Dividends £294.95
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £1,596.81
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £275.13 (18.5%) -£9.83
Total Dividends £708.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £3,946.67
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £243.61 (16.4%) -£3.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Same story as the main account, with big jump in profits off-set by deepening OPTI:Optibiotix loss (for now...)



Good good good good good!

I hate this bit - horrid trading account after week 47



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £486.05
+£0
Cash £79.63
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £321.65 (-33.8%) -£13.90
Potential profits £0
+£0
Dividends £0
+£0
Profit from sales -£22.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.11 (-5.2%) +£0.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

What a waste of space. Move along please, nothing to see here...



Pleh!

The end appears to be even more nigh for AFPO:African Potash following today's AGM when they agreed to issue another 221 million shares to buy out 21% of Advanced Agricultural Holding. This was announced back in March, but then in April they announced the reverse takeover of Onshore Energy Ltd, a company of which Executive Chairman Chris Cleverly is a director and shareholder. All this acquisition, but no sign of revenue generation?

Guess what else happened today? Corporate Advisor Peterhouse Corporate Finance resigned with immediate effect. I wonder why?

I think ShareProphets are planning a legal action against the company, and I'm almost tempted to join in, but I think I'll just add it to my list of hard-learned lessons along with the AFG:Aquatic Food disaster. I'll have a £700 hole in my performance stats if they go bust, but it will also reduce my paper deficit by £700.

JLP:Jubilee Platinum announced Hernic is at full production this week. The share price tweaked by a mere 3% so I don't hold out much hope that these are going to re-rate soon. All the good news that could possibly come has come, and yet here we sit making a £207 loss. I think we're stuck in the 4p arena until there's so much cash they can announce a dividend, or something radical happens with Tjate.

KIBO:Kibo Mining didn't drop in value this week after an RNS to say the various licenses are imminent. I think this one could go mad once they come, and I'm still satisfied it will do well - but where are the free Katoro Mining shares?

OPTI:Optibiotix announced the first LPLDL® deal this week. They already had a deal to supply 100,000 capsules to HLH Biopharma, so it's not surprising they got in first with a longer term contract. The question is, how quickly will the other interested parties sign contracts now? We're told that when they do, the house brokers can start estimating some revenue. Could that finally free the share price from this 60-70p range? We shall see...

Sunday 11 June 2017

Week 96 Review - Buffer narrows but could have been worse

I was expecting the worst after the election results, and maybe there's still a risk of a delayed reaction, but losses mid-week were much higher than by the end of the week so there was quite a recovery. Combined portfolio value ended up down by £532 so the buffer has narrowed to £1,755 and overall value stands at £63,433

Once again there were no double-digit risers or fallers. Worst performer was AMYT:Amryt Pharma which dropped 9%. That alone accounted for the whole of this week's loss, plus some.

Share of the Week goes to OPTI:Optibiotix which only climbed 4%, but that was enough to counter all the other losses across the portfolio.



The gap gets worryingly narrow

The combined share and ISA accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £43,339.81
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £43,217.87 (-0.3%) -£722.81
Potential profits £5,193.28
-£538.00
Yr 2 Dividends £486.29
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £2,401.06
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £280.67 (7.8%) -£6.90
Total Dividends £1,154.22
+£0
Total Profit from sales £6.241.32
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £329.41 (9.1%) -£3.64
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

I've squeezed the table up a bit as the % figure for the performance could easily fit on the same line. Not sure why it took this long to work that out! The portfolios went back into the red, with most of the drop being due to decreasing AMYT:Amryt Pharma profits, but there were lots of other little losses contributing too. No contribution from IQE:IQE this week as the price stayed the same. Sales and dividend performance down to 9.1% so well below my 10% target. I just don't have anything to sell that I don't want to keep longer term.



Every time the green line gets above the red, down it goes again

The SIPP looks like this after week 80



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £17,853.50
+£384.79
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £19,880.17 (11.4%%) +£217.56
Potential profits £2,959.62
+£140.95
Yr 2 Dividends £294.95
+£294.95
Yr 2 Profit from sales £1,596.81
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £284.96 (19.2%) +£35.57
Total Dividends £708.15
+£294.95
Total Profit from sales £3,946.67
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £246.65 (16.6%) +£12.64
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Lots of action to report this week thanks to some generous dividends. CAML:Central Asia Metals, which is the best run company I invest in, paid out a socking £213.40, taking the total dividends for this share to £473.73. Without the dividends this share is returning 36% on my original investment. With the dividends it's up by 50%. I really should get more in my SIPP while the price is depressed slightly, as  it was 250p back in February and is now only 220p with a P/E ratio of only 11.9, a recent expansion which will increase production, a huge pile of cash and no debt.

The other dividend was £81.56 from LGEN:Legal & General. A proper safe pension share!

There was some cash lying around in the account too so I took the opportunity to top up my OPTI:Optibiotix holding while they're subject to another dip. I was able to get another 520 shares at 71.7p costing £374.79. The timing was good, as the purchase price has now gone to 74p and I'm hoping time is running out to be able to get these at below 100p.

The sell value increased slightly over and above the extra money put in. That was all down to 4% rises in both OPTI:Optibiotix and LGEN:Legal & General, with a 3% dip in ARL:Atlantis Resources and 5% dip in TRX:Tissue Regenix reducing the gains.

The dividends lift average monthly performance by £12.64 a month and help keep this a spectacularly healthy figure.



Not as big a gap as a few months ago, but enough to offset the performance of the other accounts and keep the combined portfolios in the black.

The dreaded trading account looks looks this after week 46



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost £486.05
+£0
Cash £79.63
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £335.55 (-28.99%) -£28.99
Potential profits £0
+£0
Dividends £0
+£0
Profit from sales -£22.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£2.15 (-5.3%) +£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The only remaining share in this account is REDS:RedstoneConnect, which did a 1 for 100 consolidation this week. Rather than encouraging more investors, it contributed to a 6% decline resulting in my brave attempt at short term trading now being down by nearly 30% and basically an unmitigated disaster. Glad I'm just playing with £500!



I took out the KIBO:Kibo Mining shares too early else I could have aimed at creating a symmetrical graph, which would have been more fun than trying to make any money has been.

So the election is over and the Tory loony wing have power over the fragile majority which will crumble if the DUP aren't kept happy. Great - nice one Teresa, that's really going to improve our chances of reducing the impact of Brexit. Part of me is tickled that such an arrogant, opportunist attempt at grabbing a big majority has failed so badly. The optimist in me hopes that there will be a need for consensus and we can approach Brexit negotiations with a unified UK team, but that would be too much of a culture shock for our petty name-calling politics.

No news expected next week, so it's going to be a case of continued hope that OPTI:Optibiotix might announce what's happening with SBTX:Skinbiotherapeutics share distribution, or some signed contracts following the launch of LPLDL®at Vitafoods in May.

There's also an announcement due from JLP:Jubilee Platinum in June to confirm production at Hernic is fully ramped up, and anything that mentions earnings may reverse the current share price slide. Any news on what the hell is going on a Tjate would also help, as the value of that asset is completely ignored by the current share price, despite the obtaining of a mining licence. Let's see what the week has in store...

Friday 2 June 2017

Week 95 Review - Not great

A pretty poor week, with no double-digit fallers or risers but some significant losses in big holdings like OPTI:Optibiotix which is a trader's dream at the moment, dropping 7% this week. The effect was a drop in combined portfolio value of £1,248.74 with total value £63,583 and £2,288 in the black.

Worst performer this week was OPTI:Optibiotix, but AMYT:Amryt Pharma wasn't far behind, dropping 6%. Between them, these two are responsible for most of the drop in portfolio value.

Share of the Week was IKA:Ilika, rising 9% but still 24% down on my original purchase price.


Last week's optimism was short-lived, and heaven knows what's going to happen next Thursday!




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£43,339.81
+£499.98
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£43,940.68(+1.4%)-£768.09
Potential profits£5,731.28
-£351.33
Yr 2 Dividends£486.29
+£27.35
Yr 2 Profit from sales£2,401.06
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£287.57
-£4.03
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost8.0%
Total Dividends£1,154.22
+£27.35
Total Profit from sales£6.241.32
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£333.05
-£2.28
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost9.2%

Portfolio cost went up because I was so fed up of my trading account being rubbish, I moved my KIBO:Kibo Mining shares out into my share account, as I'd much rather keep these long term now I have them. Value was clobbered by £768 of which about half was reduced profits and half deepened loss. A nice £27.35 dividend arrived from LOOK:Lookers, but I still don't forgive them for being 28% down and never recovering from Brexit. The dividend reduced the slip in monthly performance a tad.


Still in the black, but in great danger of going under by the end of next week.

The SIPP looks like this after week 79



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£17,468.71
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£19,277.82(+10.4%)-£509.37
Potential profits£2,818.67
-£263.53
Yr 2 Dividends£0
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales£1,596.81
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£49.39
-£9.59
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost17.1%
Total Dividends£413.19
+£0
Total Profit from sales£3,946.67
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£234.01
-£3.00
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost16.1%

Almost the same story as the other portfolio, with £509 drop in value, of which just over half was dropping profits and just under half deepening losses


Back to the narrow gap

The trading account looks like this after week 45



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£486.05
-£499.98
Cash£79.63
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£364.54(-25.0%)+£28.73
Potential profits£0
+£0
Dividends£0
0
Profit from sales-£22.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit-£2.20
+£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost-5.4%

Ha! Revenge is mine! That'll teach it for being so rubbish - punished by having half the value wiped out. Now it's back to the "let's see what I can do with £500" game, and KIBO:Kibo Mining is safely tucked away for the long term.

REDS:RedstoneConect is all that's left now, and that ticked up a fraction to leave the account £28 better off if you discount the removed shares.


At least it's making an interesting pattern - about the only interesting thing associated with this account!

The general election is bound to cause havoc next week, and I have a bad feeling there's going to be a horrible crash or something. Tragically I have no funds free to take advantage of any 1-day blips, so will just have to ride the storm.

Very disappointing annual results from TRX:Tissue Regenix today. Although income was up by 77% to £1.4 million, their cash burn is so massive they still posted a loss of £11 million. With only £8.2 million in cash, that's not enough to last the next year unless revenues increase significantly. There is a chance revenues will increase significantly, but I had hoped for this to have already started. I guess I'm being a bit harsh, as some of the deals to get accepted in USA were towards the end of the year and too late for the results, so I await the next trading statement eagerly. The shares dropped by 5% on the news.

I rather desperately need OPTI:Optibiotix to announce something and get back up above 80p. This is so volatile at the moment, not helped the the Yorkshire Seedcorn Fund flogging another 500,000 shares last week and not enough people buying them to save the share price. They still have 10 million left to sell, which is a bit of a worry.

I'm getting increasingly frustrated by the lack of news on free SBTX:SkinBiotherapeutics shares to OPTI:Optibiotix holders. This has been left hanging for a long time, with assertions that long term holders will be rewarded over and above day traders coming to nothing. I will sleep far better at night knowing what the plans are for this. Meanwhile, there was lots of enthusiasm after Vitafoods so an announcement of a contract next week would really help get things back into profit.

OK - deep breath and launch into election week...