Week 264 Review - Half last week's losses recovered

Not a bad week, with some strong performances in my larger holdings, and I took a loss in the SIPP which ruined the annual performance, but helped the gap between cost and value. That gap improved by £4,316 which is over half last week's losses, and the deficit between cost and value narrowed to £21,932 with total portfolio value of £98,694.

The only big loser was my trading account holding in TLOU:Tlou Energy, which dropped 13%. I'm still confused as to why this is dropping, as good progress was announced on getting the transmission line started, which is critical to being able to sell any electricity. I'm more positive about this company than I have been for some time.

OPTI:Optibiotix gained 2p, which although only 3%, is worth around £2,200 of this week's improvement.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha interims were excellent, and the share price gained 7%. It's still around 15p short of the pre-covid price which I expect it to make up in the next few weeks.

IQE:IQE lost loads of ground last week, but made up 9% this week. I'm still a long way down with these, but results are due out very soon and there's a feeling they could be quite positive on the back of strong results from most of their customers. Will the big investment in new reactors be starting to bear fruit? Shorters are certainly closing their positions, which is also helping boost the share price.

JLP:Jubilee Metals had a blip last week as traders took profits, but this week climbed 9% and is still significantly below where they would be on current revenues if it weren't for a history of disappointments and placings. This time things are looking different, and the carrot of a potential dividend is being waved, along with new deals being financed with cash. It's been a long wait, but things are starting to get very exciting.

Share of the Week is DDDD:4D Pharma, which had unbelievably good results from early trials of their cancer drug, with 42% of participants having positive outcomes when all other drugs had failed for them. There are also anecdotal updates from people taking part in the IBS trial who claim to be cured, and results of that are due out soon. This is showing that gut bacteria can be used as a direct treatment, and along with the work OPTI:Optibiotix and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics are doing, strongly suggests the microbiome is an important sector to be investing in. DDDD climbed 35% this week and my holding is now 95% up. Although frustrating that OPTI is still losing me money after 5 years, at least I had time to accumulate lots cheaply. I don't think I'll get that chance with DDDD.

I think we're still just slightly closer to the injection line than the cost line so need another week like this one to get back to a more comfortable position

The line is almost flat!

Here's the ISA and share porfolios

			Weekly Change
Cash	£10.73		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,366.49		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£48,599.62	(-22.1%)	+£1,952.72
Potential profits	£1,652.24		+£568.60
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	-£4.07	(-0.1%)	+£1.35
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£353.45	(6.8%)	-£1.34
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.2%		+0%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Nice big increase in value, and wonderful increase in potential profits of £568 all thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals. I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that my 10% performance target based on portfolio cost is over ambitious and encourages me to sell shares too early. 6.8% is still a hell of a lot more than I would get in any sort of savings account, so I will stick with my 10% target but based on injection amount and not value, as that's the return on what I've put into the account. That's at 10.2% so looking good.

Still rather a long way to go.

I do believe the trend line has flipped and is pointing upwards! Much joy!

The SIPP looks like this after week 248

			Weekly Change
Cash	£81.10		+£17.25
Portfolio cost	£55,593.53		-£232.49
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£48,370.82	(-13.0%)	+£2,149.49
Potential profits	£2,136.90		+£755.84
Yr 5 Dividends	£96.37		+£18.45
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£212.32		-£553.58
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£19.61	(0.4%)	-£59.98
Total Dividends	£1,995.61		+£18.45
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,761.31		-£553.58
Average monthly cash profit	£247.88	(5.4%)	-£10.39
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	8.0%		-0.4%
Compound performance	38%		-2%

There's a lot going on here! The key event was selling N4P:N4 Pharma at a big loss. I've been completely disillusioned with them for some time, and I just see reams of bullshit coming from them and a feeble attempt to get on the Covid-19 bandwagon, which amazingly some investors have fallen for. I took the opportunity of an unwarranted rise in share price to ditch them. I made a £553 (44%) loss, but feel so good to be rid of them, and managed to salvage £690 from the mess.

I got a windfall refund from my electricity company as they've been over charging me, so I added £320 to here which gave me enough to - you guessed it - buy 1,852 more shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at the crazy bargain price of 54.15p, costing £1,011.81. This takes my OPTI holding to 117,323 at an average purchase price of 63.98p and costing £75,499.71. They are losing £9,834, but that's nothing a 9p price rise won't sort out.

I had a dividend this week. £18.45 came from FXPO:Ferrexpo which means I've had £47 dividends from them so far, which is worth an extra 4% on my profits. A few other SIPP shares have gone ex-dividend, so there will be more coming soon, and £80 tax rebate after this week's injection.

Potential profits rose by £755 this week, most of which was JLP:Jubilee Metals and DDDD:4D Pharma. Six of my SIPP shares are in profit, which is the best for a long time. Although the magic formula shares are proving the theory works, the really big profits are in the AIM shares mentioned just above, showing that having a mix of the 2 approaches is a good policy.

The sell at a big loss obliterated the year 5 performance, dropping profits by £59 a month. The effect on long term performance was £10 a month and a drop to 5.4% return, which is way below what I want. Even the performance against injection is only 8% so 2% below target.

My plan is still to only keep JLP:Jubilee Metals in this account until SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics drops back to my 16p target buy-in price. If it doesn't then I'll keep JLP as I think they will still make loads of money, but I'd rather focus my ISA account on that for the longer term and get a nice pile of SBTX in the SIPP instead.

If I ever get to sell MMX:Minds + Machines then I may use that to increase my DDDD:4D Pharma holding

Looking pretty good. Only 13% in the red now, so maybe even a chance of getting back into profit. It only needs a £7,000 swing.

Strange that although this account is doing much better than the ISA, it's still in a downward trend unlike the ISA.

The trading portfolio looks like this after week 214

			Weekly Change
Cash	£220.72		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.16		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,411.04	(-40.1%)	-£18.12
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£154.70		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£111.72	(57.0%)	-£22.35
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£441.07		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£9.90	(5.0%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

The big drop in TLOU:Tlou Energy did most of the damage that resulted in an £18 drop in value. Back to being stuck in a tedious rut thanks to completely mis-reading the likely sentiment towards TLOU after the placing. I must remember that a good long term share is very different to a good trading share!

Still generally flat

Dangerously close to crossing the trend line, which is at least still pointing in the right direction.

I've decided to abandon reporting on the virtual magic formula portfolio as it seems pointless. I bought them all just before the Covid-19 crash, and I have enough in my SIPP to report on them in real life. By the time I have another £2,000 injection to the SIPP the rankings will probably have completely changed, so I don't know if the companies I'm reporting on now would even feature by then.

Here's the wish list:

1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. Still nothing, in fact no announcements at all this week. Strange how the price is more likely to increase when there isn't an announcement!
   
2. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. It's heading in the right direction. It's down from 24.5p to 22.5p so there's hope. Given JLP:Jubilee Metals is still climbing, I'm happy to wait a few more weeks.
3. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. There was an announcement, but despite being a positive one the price still dropped. I think this announcement would cause it to go back up, so still hoping to see it.
   
4. IQE:IQE increase another 5% so we get a gradual climb to 100p. Yes! A 9% increase this week. I'm modifying my wish to be stellar results and a re-rate above 70p.
5. Six SIPP shares to stay in potential profit. Yes, this one is still true, but FXPO:Ferrexpo are only 1% up and POLR:Polar Capital Holdings are only up 2% so it's way too close for comfort.
6. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM. This still hasn't happened but surely must come soon. There was a better announcement of some more tailings to process nearby, but this is the one that I really want to see.
7. OPTI:Optibiotix to get within 10% of profit. Not quite. It's 11% down in the ISA and 15% down in the other accounts, so I'll stick with wishing for under 10% down in all accounts.
8. As we're about to hit September, I want to add a new wish that CAML:Central Asia Metals re-instate their dividend. Other miners have done it, and the fact they still haven't is having a real drag on the share price. Interim results were 17th September last year, so I may be a few weeks early, but want to get it on the list as surely there's a good chance for this one.
   

Week 263 Review - Misery as most of last week's gains are lost

A dreadful week, with a big chunk of last week's gains lost. It's beginning to feel like my portfolio will never get in the black again. There were big drops in most of my bigger holdings, and a 6p drop for OPTI:Optibiotix was particularly damaging, but there were drops of £1,000 on top of that, meaning the portfolio lost £7,484 and the deficit between cost and value widened to £26,249, with total value down to £94,592.

Biggest loss was DDDD:4D Pharma, which after a great rise over the last few weeks dropped 24%. I suspect it was mainly profit taking, so fingers crossed it won't lose any more this week.

OPTI:Optibiotix was next worse performer, dropping 9% just as I thought there was a chance they would get back into profit. If the traders have their way it will drift further before their next engineered spike.

IQE:IQE fell 8% after a nice gradual climb, which is surprising as the American tech shares are all still booming. Things are still looking positive though, but it's going to take years to recoup my losses.

FXPO:Ferrexpo fell 6% and is only just in profit now. It did go ex-dividend during the week which would have had some impact.

JLP:Jubilee Metals fell 5%, which given the size of my holding was a big contributor to the bad week. They are still 16% up, so all it will take is some more news to consolidate at this price, then financial results should see a re-rate.

Share of the Week is SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy, and it has no competition as it's the only share that rose by more than 5%. A 14% climb was most welcome, although on the back of a rather vague agreement for debt funding. Let's hope they don't get in over their heads, as it's for £170 million.

Back down to being nearer the injection line than the cost

I should have known there was no way we would get above the best performance in the last 12 months. So close!

The ISA and share portfolios look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£10.73		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,366.49		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£46,646.90	(-25.2%)	-£4,457.10
Potential profits	£1,083.64		-£284.30
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	-£5.42	(-0.1%)	+£2.71
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£354.79	(6.8%)	-£1.36
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.2%		+0%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Great big drop in value, and the profits from JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped back to where they were last week.

Ouch!

At least the trend line is almost flat.

The SIPP looks like this after week 247

			Weekly Change
Cash	£63.85		+£0
Portfolio cost	£55,826.02		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£46,221.33	(-17.2%)	-£3,040.43
Potential profits	£1,381.06		-£553.11
Yr 5 Dividends	£77.92		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£765.90		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£79.59	(1.7%)	-£2.09
Total Dividends	£1,977.16		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£13,315.00		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£258.27	(5.6%)	-£1.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	8.4%		+0%
Compound performance	40%		+0%

Another whacking great drop, and nearly all my in-profit shares fell, so £553 knocked off potential profits.

At least this one is still closer to cost than injection - but only just

Once again, pulled back from almost beating the best week in the last 12 months, and the down trend is steeper here than in any other portfolio.

The Trading account looks like this after week 213

			Weekly Change
Cash	£220.72		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.16		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,429.16	(-39.3%)	+£12.57
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£154.70		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£134.07	(68.3%)	-£33.52
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£441.07		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£9.95	(5.1%)	-£0.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

This account managed a small rise, mainly thanks to CAML:Central Asia Metals and TLOU:Tlou Energy both improving. One ray of sunshine in a miserable week.

Although it's an up week, we've been pretty flat fro a while now

Only just above the trend line, but it's the only one pointing upwards.

Last week the virtual magic formula portfolio was down 11.37% and this week it's down 11.62%, so a little bit worse. Still eight companies in profit, with PLUS:Plus 500 up an amazing 76%. Worst performer is VTY:Vistry Group, which is down 57%. Happy to say that although only FXPO:Ferrexpo out of the eight is in my portfolio, every single share I bought from the magic formula list is in profit as I paid a much lower price for them, if you only count the CAML:Central Asia Metals purchase that I made after starting the magic formula experiment.

So, how are my wishes this week?

1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. Still nothing so I'll keep this until it happens.
2. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. Nope, although it's nudging closer at 24.5p so I'll hang on in there and still plan to sell my SIPP JLP:Jubilee Metals in order to buy it.
3. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. No sign yet.
   
4. IQE:IQE increase another 5% so we get a gradual climb to 100p. Not on your Nellie - an 8% drop was a horrible blip.
5. Six SIPP shares to stay in potential profit. Yes, this one came true, but it's too close for comfort so I'll be wanting it to happen next week too.
6. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM.That didn't happen, and the price fell 4% so we'll need to keep that one.
7. OPTI:Optibiotix to get back into profit. No - the absolute opposite. Too much to hope this will happen next week, so I'm moderating my wish that it's within 10% down.
   

Week 262 Review - A super duper week!

What an absolutely terrific week. There were gains in some of my bigger holdings and some spectacular gains that I haven't experienced since I started this 5 years ago. The portfolio climbed by £11,315 and the deficit between cost and value narrowed to £18.764. The best news is the total portfolio passed the magic £100K milestone and stands at £102,077.

There were no big fallers this week. A rare state of affairs!

JLP:Jubilee Metals had another good week, rising 5% in my SIPP and 4% in my ISA. Both these accounts are in profit and I think there's a long way to go yet.

TLOU:Tlou Energy only climbed 0.1p, but that was 5% in my trading account. I really need some good news for these to shift, but still happy I forked out for some more in the recent open offer.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy had a bit of a surge, climbing 6%. At 76% down these are a long way from being in profit, but if they rise another 1% they go from red to crimson, which is always a bit of a morale boost.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 8p which would normally be a shoe-in for Share of the Week as it's 12% and worth £8,900 of this week's rise. However, this was such a good week there are 2 shares beating it. There's a big surge of support in the probiotics sector following successful phase III results for Nasdaq listed Seres Therapeutics, and I'm really hoping this will see a continued interest in OPTI from new investors. There's certainly a lot of new faces on the bulletin board.

N4P:N4 Pharma climbed 23% after news that something vaguely positive happened with using their Nuvec system to deliver a Covid-19 vaccine. I'm still not convinced, but if the Covid bandwagon is enough to give me an escape route, I'll gladly take it at the first opportunity.

Share of the week is my recent purchase DDDD:4D Pharma, which soared 87% from a 3% loss to 84% profit. Quite stunning, and all on the back of the Seres Therapeutics news. It's now making £1,220 potential profit in just a few weeks, but I think it could rapidly go to over £4,000 profit and more as it has a staggering patent portfolio and Merck is a major shareholder.

Now we have evidence probiotic pharma treatment can work, this could be really big. I still prefer the business model OPTI:Optibiotix have taken, focusing on supplements to get profitable, and then pharma later, but DDDD have jumped straight into the pharma route and it seems to be finally paying off, albeit after the share price dwindled from 1000p 5 years ago to about 24p in March.That makes OPTI's performance over the last 5 years dropping from 90p to 60p look pretty great!

Weeeee!

It won't take much more and the 12-month trend line of misery will be pointing the right way.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£10.73		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,366.49		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£51,104.00	(-18.1%)	+£5,751.33
Potential profits	£1,367.94		+£284.30
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	-£8.13	(-0.2%)	+£8.13
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£356.15	(6.9%)	-£1.36
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.2%		-0.1%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Massive surge in value and nice increase in potential profits of £284 courtesy of JLP:Jubilee Metals. The offer price of OPTI:Optibiotix shares is now above my weighted average, and a 4p rise next week will see them back in profit. I'm actually starting to think that's nailed on, as lots of people will be looking at microbiome shares this week, and OPTI will be clear as one of the cheapest.

That's got us back to halfway between the injection line and the cost line, and in the best position for over a year.

I think the trend line will be pointing upwards in 2 weeks when we lose the peak on the left.

The SIPP looks like this after week 246

			Weekly Change
Cash	£63.85		+£0
Portfolio cost	£55,826.02		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£49,261.76	(-11.8%)	+£5,541.97
Potential profits	£1,934.17		+£1,391.40
Yr 5 Dividends	£77.92		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£765.90		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£81.68	(1.8%)	-£2.21
Total Dividends	£1,977.16		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£13,315.00		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£259.32	(5.6%)	-£1.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	8.4%		+0%
Compound performance	40%		+0%

A similar stonking rise in value to the ISA of £5,541 and a really impressive increase in potential profits of £1,391 which is mainly DDDD:4D Pharma. The key thing is 6 out of 13 shares are now in profit, and 3 more are quite close to being back in profit, with only 4 that are miles off, one of which is IQE:IQE and slowly recovering.

Average monthly performance continues to be poor, and may stay that way until next spring when I start selling some magic formula shares. I am counting on JLP:Jubilee Metals contributing a bit before then, but I won't sell until SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is cheap again as I have to be able to buy more than my original holding.

Much closer to the cost line than the injection line. An almost £30,000 rise since the Covid crash and way higher than we've been for over a year, although £10,000 has been added to the account.

This will take a bit more effort to turn around the trend line, as we're only just reaching the peaks from earlier in the year. It may not even change direction until we hit break-even.

The trading account looks like this after week 212

			Weekly Change
Cash	£220.72		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.16		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,416.59	(-39.8%)	+£22.17
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£154.70		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£167.59	(85.4%)	-£55.86
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£441.07		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£9.99	(5.1%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

A tiny tick up as half the shares increased and half dropped. I may however be in for a bit of a wait before I get to sell anything.

I haven't recovered from the dip after buying TLOU:Tlou Energy the other week, but we are heading in the right direction.

Back on the right side of the line, and the line is going in the right direction.

Last week the virtual magic formula  portfolio was down 13.58% and this week it is only down by 11.37% so over a 2% rise. There are now 8 companies in profit, but FXPO:Ferrexpo is the only one I own. My other magic formula shares are therefore still below where they were when lockdown happened.

Let's check out the wish list from last week:

1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. Still nothing so I'll keep this until it happens.
2. POLR:Polar Capital Holdings to get in profit. Yes! Up by 2% and making £19 potential profit.
3. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. Nope - this got even worse, with a climb to 27p offer price. Much patience is required, as I still think it will drop.
4. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. Not yet so we'll keep this
   
5. IQE:IQE increase another 5% so we get a gradual climb to 100p. Nope - a slight drop this week so I'll keep this one running

For next week I'd like to add my 6 SIPP shares stay in potential profit and JLP:Jubilee Metals announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM. Most important new wish is that OPTI:Optibiotix gets back into profit as that will boost my morale more than anything else.

Week 261 Review - Jubilee Metals takes off at last

 This was a good week for a decent section of the portfolio, especially JLP:Jubilee Metals which finally got past 5p and well into profit. That along with a 2p recovery for OPTI:Optibiotix led to a £4,457 improvement in the deficit between cost and value. That reduced to £30,079 and total portfolio value, aided by the £2,000 pension transfer, reached £90,762.

The only big loser was SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy due to the announcement of a discounted placing. They dropped 8% and are now 82% down so I won't be partaking in their primary bid fundraise.

POLR:Polar Capital Holdings climbed 6% but it wasn't enough to get into the black. They are still 2% down but I'm confident they will be in profit soon, in fact they already are if you consider the dividend.

PAY:Paypoint is another one of my recent SIPP magic formula buys and it's doing well as they climbed 7% this week and are 11% up altogether.

FXPO:Ferrexpo also seem to have recovered from their blip, and great results saw them climb 8% this week to go back into profit and 5% up.

IQE:IQE had a really good week, and there seems to be a slow and steady momentum building. Could I get back all these losses? The ISA holding climbed 12% and is now only 19% down so we just need a couple more weeks like this. My ISA holding was only meant to be a temporary quick win, which was a bit of a disastrous move.

Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals. The deal for a load of copper tailings was announced, and as hinted in recent interviews, it will be paid for by cash and debt, so no placing and no dilution. This saw a 15% surge in the value of my ISA shares which are now 18% up. I would have sold these as I was disillusioned with them, but I think I've changed my mind as JLP seems to be snowballing into something quite impressive.

I've been so impressed lately that when my £2,000 pension transfer arrived, I didn't invest it in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics as I had planned. Instead I put it into JLP:Jubilee Metals. I bought 45,772 shares for 4.3499p costing £1,999.99. Happy to say by the end of the week they were 16% up and making £322 potential profit.

A nice rise, and my costs go past £120K for the first time.

Will it be a springboard or a blip?

Here's the ISA and share accounts

			Weekly Change
Cash	£10.73		-£3.75
Portfolio cost	£62,366.49		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£45,352.67	(-27.3%)	+£2,545.45
Potential profits	£1,083.64		+£923.97
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	-£16.26	(-0%)	-£16.26
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£357.51	(6.9%)	-£1.44
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.3%		+0%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Cash dropped by the monthly ISA fee, but look at that potential profit! Up £923 to £1,083. That's all JLP:Jubilee Metals. I'm not going to sell any of these, which is something I never thought I would write. The rest of the £2,545 improvement was mostly IQE:IQE and OPTI:Optibiotix. It's week 1 of year 6 and there was a £3.75 charge, so average monthly performance looks horrible but will get down to the ISA charge after 4 weeks and stay there till I sell something.

Nice to have a bigger gap above the injection line, but it's still not very big.

I'll do a jig of joy when the deficit gets to less than £10K as it will be better performance than any time in the last 12 months.

Here's the SIPP after week 245

		Weekly Change
Cash	£63.85		-£15.75
Portfolio cost	£55,826.02		+£1,999.99
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£43,719.79	(-21.7%)	+£1,860.55
Potential profits	£542.77		+£419.43
Yr 5 Dividends	£77.92		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£765.90		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£83.89	(1.8%)	-£4.23
Total Dividends	£1,977.16		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£13,315.00		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£260.38	(5.6%)	-£1.35
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	8.4%		-0.6%
Compound performance	40%		-2%

Cash dropped by the monthly charge, portfolio cost went up by the cost of JLP:Jubilee Metals, lots of shares contributed to the £1,860 improvement in value, and potential profits rose by £419 thanks to multiple shares. Note that the £1,860 rise is on top of the cost of the new shares as I deduct that so it reflects the improvement between cost and value since last week.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha is up £57 (6%), FXP:Ferrexpo is up £51 (5%), JLP:Jubilee Metals is up an impressive £322 (16%) and PAY:Paypoint is up £111 (11%). It's been a long, long time since so many shares in the SIPP were making a profit. This time I won't be selling until the 12 month review of the magic formula. If a share has dropped out based on dividend and company performance then I'll sell. That will effectively be the rank total excluding the one for P/E ratio because I won't care if they are no longer cheap. That's a good thought actually - I should add that column as it effectively shows the best companies even if they are expensive.

The injection of cash caused my performance compared to injection to drop, It's going to take a stonking profit to get back to my target 10% though.

I do still want to get back into SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, but it's got way ahead of the previous 20p resistance. Based on the experience of the OPTI:Optibiotix share price, there will be these flurries of excitement now and again before the traders drag the price back down. I'll probably hold my JLP:Jubilee Metals shares until that happens, then use the proceeds to buy SBTX. I'll do the same in the ISA with IQE:IQE which I always intended to sell quick and just hold the ones in my SIPP longer term. I just need IQE make it back above 100p before I sell.

Nice when everything points upwards

A £5K rise should be enough to flatten the trend line.

The Trading account looks like this after week 211

			Weekly Change
Cash	£220.72		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.16		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,394.42	(-40.8%)	+£51.36
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£154.70		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£223.45	(113.9%)	-£111.72
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£441.07		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£10.04	(5.1%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

A reasonable wee saw the value rise by £51, but I'm now stuck with a load of long term losing shares so the flurry of excitement over the last few weeks is gone.

One benefit of all the buying and selling this month has been my commission coming down to £8.95. Only a £3 saving but it all adds up.

Back on the way up, but it needs an announcement by TLOU:Tlou Energy that de-watering has re-commenced to get that share moving, as it was the suspension of work that caused it to drop.

At least we're back above the trend line as I'm rather desperate to have at least one account going n the right direction.

The virtual magic formula portfolio ended the week down by 13.58% instead of over 16% down last week, so a pretty good week. There are 6 companies in the black, and I only have shares in one of those. Interesting that so many of the ones I hold are not yet back to their pre-covid price. It means there are still lots of bargains to be had.

As I wrote much of this blog yesterday, I've had a chance to add up the rankings of my magic formula shares and exclude the P/E ratio rank. That should give me the best companies despite them being expensive. The results are quite surprising!

Top of the ranking is POLR:Polar Capital Holdings which I already own, so that means even after 12 months if it remains in the top 30 on this list I can keep it. Next is PSN:Persimmon which would be tempting if the housing market wasn't so risky at the moment. Having said that, people have been predicting a crash for years and it never seems to happen.

Next is FXPO:Ferrexpo which I already have, then APAX:Apax Global Alpha which I have, then PAY:Paypoint which I have too. The only one in my portfolio that slips is CAML:Central Asia Metals, but that's still 23rd and in the top 30. It means I would continue to hold all these shares if this was my 12 month review point. That review point is 1st June 2021 which is just after I bought FXPO:Ferrexpo.

It will be 4 months until I get my next £2,000 pension transfer, so likely the spreadsheet will have changed quite a bit by then. At least I now have 5 out of the 30 I want to get to. If I ever sell MMX:Minds + Machines then I'll use that to get another one. No chance of anything else turning a profit in the next 12 months, other than where I want to use the proceeds for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics.

I nearly forgot my wishes!

Still no SweetBiotix announcement from OPTI:Optibiotix, JLP:Jubilee Metals did get past 5p - yippee! POLR:Polar Capital Holdings nearly got into profit so that carries over, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutix increased to 25.5p instead of dropping to 16p so I'm keeping that, and TLOU:Tlou Energy didn't drop any further, which wasn't a very ambitious wish.

Here's my list for this week:

1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. I'll keep this until it happens.
2. POLR:Polar Capital Holdings to get in profit. So close - got to keep it here.
3. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. I'm keeping this one, although maybe it's a big ask.
4. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed.
5. IQE:IQE increase another 5% so we get a gradual climb to 100p

Week 260 Review - The curse of the trading account strikes again

The flattest week for a long time, with a 1p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix blatted by small drops all over the place, so the difference between cost and value improved by just £560 which means the deficit is £34,537 and total value is £84,324.

The worst performer by far was my disastrous purchase of TLOU:Tlou Energy in my trading account. I figured there would be a bounce after the placing, and I was enthused by a positive update on the projects. The market wasn't, and my purchase lost 22% in a matter of days. Back to the good old days of all my trading stocks being shit. It fell so fast I didn't even have a chance to bail out for a small loss. Utter disaster. Let's hope it's just a blip and we can recover from here, as I thought it was a great project update.

POLR:Polar Capital Holdings was my other significant loser, dropping 5% and now 8% down on when I bought it. They made up for that today, with a nice £49.25 dividend. I like having proper companies in my portfolio.

Share of the Week didn't even make 5%, with APAX:Apax Global Alpha rising 4% to go 8% up. A nice solid SIPP share.

Cost went to a record high as I re-invested my profits, but you can hardly see a change in the green line.

Again virtually flat

Here's the ISA and Shares account

			Weekly Change
Cash	£14.48		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,366.49		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£42,807.22	(-31.4%)	+£405.58
Potential profits	£159.67		-£213.22
Yr 5 Dividends	£0.85		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£35.20		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	-£0.43	(-0%)	+£0.01
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£358.95	(6.9%)	-£1.38
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.3%		-0.1%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

JLP:Jubilee Metals had a bit of a shocker, so half of my potential profit was zapped, and that took the edge off the small OPTI:Optibiotix rise. This was the last week of Year 5, so I end up with a 43p a month deficit for the year, which means I didn't even cover my ISA fees. That's why I need more dividend paying shares!

Flat

The trend line is almost flat.

The SIPP looks like this after week 244

		Weekly Change
Cash	£79.60		-£1,406.14
Portfolio cost	£53,826.04		+£1,455.39
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£39,859.26	(-25.9%)	+£281.32
Potential profits	£123.34		+£47.36
Yr 5 Dividends	£77.92		+£49.25
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£765.90		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£88.12	(2.0%)	+£3.59
Total Dividends	£1,977.16		+£49.25
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£13,315.00		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£261.73	(5.8%)	-£0.20
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	9%		+0%
Compound performance	42%		+0%

I took a big risk early in the week and spent my money earmarked for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics on DDDD:4D Pharma instead. I've been watching them for ages, but have been bitten by pharma companies before and they were way too expensive. Now they seem cheap, so I bought 2,954 shares at 48.864p costing £1,455.39. They were 1% down by the end of the week, which is actually an improvement given spread and commission.

That purchase caused cash to come down, but then £49 dividend came in from POLR:Polar Capital Holdings. The difference between cost and value ended up £281 better off, and the dividend helped year 5 monthly profit to rise by £3 a month, and reduced the decrease in long term monthly profit to just 20p.

I should get £2,000 transferred from my work pension next week, and absolutely must save it all for buying back SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics.

Pretty flat green line

Not really moving anywhere fast

The trading account looks like this after week 210

			Weekly Change
Cash	£220.72		-£511.95
Portfolio cost	£2,354.16		+£511.95
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,343.06	(-42.9%)	-£126.11
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£154.70		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£335.17	(170.9%)	-£335.18
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£441.07		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£10.09	(5.1%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

I bought 21,739 shares on TLOU:Tlou Energy at 2.3p costing £511.95 and they dropped to 1.9p so that was an absolute disaster. I can't believe I got that one so wrong. I still believe these will come good, and there will be a spike when they announce de-watering has resumed, but it's now dropped far enough to join all the other long term value traps in the account.

The drop removed £126 value in a few days. Average year 5 profit is going through a major correction as it becomes clear the week 1 performance isn't going to carry on every other week. Long term performance is still over 5% so I ought to be a little but happy.

Ouch!

Back below the trend line, so looks like it might not be pointing upwards for very long.

I forgot to capture the magic formula value before the reset on Monday, but it was down over 16% compared to 15.12% so it had been a down week.

Let's see how my wishes performed

1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. Still no sign so that carries over.
2. JLP:Jubilee Metals to get to 5p. It did the opposite and dropped, so that carries over.
3. POLR:Polar Capital Holdings to get in profit. Nope - lost another 5% so that carries over.
4. MTFB:Motif Bio announcing a reverse takeover. It never came and the shares are suspended, so that wish is crushed forever.
5. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. Nope - it went right back up higher than I sold them for, so that carries over.
6. I find a suitable share for the trading account - oh dear - I found a share but it clearly wasn't suitable so my wish is now that TLOU:Tlou Energy doesn't drop any further.
   

I'd say that was rubbish week with no wishes coming true.

I'm feeling too pessimistic to make any other wishes this week, so that's it.