Saturday, 5 April 2025

Week 504 Review - Carnage as Trump triggers stock market meltdown.

What an utterly catastrophic week. Given OPTI:Optibiotix only lost 1p which is around £2,000, the fact that the deficit between cost and value widened by £11,982 shows how dreadful things were across the rest of the portfolio. The deficit is now £138,174 and deficit between injection amount and value is £65,330. Total portfolio value dropped to £105,131 despite a £2,500 injection.

There's no point trying to write any reason for most of the declines so I'll just list them. Suffice to say there is no Share of the Week as everything was shit.

JLP:Jubilee Metals was the biggest faller, losing 24% after predictably uninspiring results and despite good news on the waste dump project at the end of the week. Needless to say I bought some more.

IPX:Impax Asset Management dropped 20%.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining dropped 17%.

POLR:Polar Capital dropped 16%.

ASHM:Ashmore Group and FOUR:4imprint dropped 15%.

CWR:Ceres Power dropped 14%.

BHP:BHP Group dropped 13%.

CAML:Central Asia Metals, IHP:Integrafin and PAGE:Pagegroup dropped 12%.

ALPH:Alpha Group and PAF:Pan African Resources dropped 11% so even gold miners weren't spared.

RIO:Rio Tinto dropped 10%.

AJB:AJ Bell, APAX:Apax Global Alpha and FDM:FDM Group dropped 8%.

GAW:Games Workshop and WHR:Warehouse REIT dropped 7%.

BPM:BP Marsh & Partners and OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 6%.

CORE:Solidcore Resources, GSK:GSK and III:3i Group dropped 5%.

What a shit show!

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 36 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£112.02+£63.93
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£41,588.27(-63.6%)-£5,056.25
Potential profits£283.99+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£126.70+£17.47
Yr 10 Interest£1.06            +£0.21
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£46.40(0.7%)+£0.39
Total Dividends£12,434.65+£17.47
Total Interest£7.86+£0.21
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£253.70(3.6%)-£0.39
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

I got a £17 dividend from ASHM:Ashmore Group which means I've had 14% return from them in dividends now. Shame they are down 53%. Cash went up a bit too, as I added £50 to my ISA before the end of the tax year to ensure fees are covered for next year. SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutix didn't change price so potential profits remain the same. That was the highlight of the whole week.




Too depressed for any chart commentary this week.

The SIPP looks like this after week 488 overall and week 20 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£338.44
+£68.23
Portfolio cost£128,954.22
+£2,697.17
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£63,543.71(-50.7%)-£6,926.50
Potential profits£3,252.13
-£937.04
Yr 10 Dividends£573.51
+£31.35
Yr 10 Interest£2.01
+£0.71
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£618.29(8.7%)-£29.03
Total Dividends£16,690.16
+£31.35
Total Interest£14.91
+£0.71
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£307.33(4.3%)-£0.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%-2%

My £2,200 pension transfer came through and I also added £300 to go with recent tax relief and dividends. I got £31 dividend from APAX:Apax Global Alpha which means I've had 17% return from these but they are down 42%. Potential profits were hammered by £931 across the board and the drop in portfolio value was much worse than the ISA.

I bought 17,618 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals after the large waste dump news at 2.9799p costing £530 taking my SIPP holding to 269,278, all of which will be sold as soon as they stop being rubbish.

I carried out my plan with the pension transfer and bought 23 shares in RIO:Rio Tinto at 4566.5p costing £1,067.50 and I also bought 352 shares in IHP:Integrafin at 307.474p costing £1,099.67. Both plummeted on Thursday and Friday so I shouldn't have bothered.




Well, that's a week I'd like to forget in a hurry. Will there be any recovery next week or will it get even worse?

There's intrigue on 9th April when Boots launch a new formula of their popular No.7 brand. On their website it says the new formula is in collaboration with Manchester University, which is where SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics came from, and Croda are due to launch their new lysate this month. Is it too much to hope for that SBTX is in the new No.7? We'll find out on Wednesday.

Sunday, 30 March 2025

Week 503 Review - Optibiotix prevents Jubilee Metals from making it a good week.

Another bad week despite some good rises in big holdings. A 2p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix on the back of a corporate update wrecked the gains and resulted in the deficit between cost and value widening by £2,637 to £126,191 and the deficit between injection amount and value widened to £53,377. Total portfolio value dropped to £114,735.

Biggest loser was CWR:Ceres Power which is subject to a big short attack after Bosch pulled out, despite it not having that significant affect on revenues. They dropped another 18% this week to go 75% down.

TLOU:Tlou Energy had a massive rise last week but dropped 17% this week to go 27% down all together.

AFC:AFC Energy are also being shorted in an attack against "green" technology companies. They dropped another 14% this week and are now 71% down.

OPTI:Optibiotix fell 2p after an underwhelming corporate update which had no bad news, but made it clear nothing is going to be happening any time soon. They fell 11% and it cost me £4,000 so it's a good job there were some rises elsewhere.

FXPO:Ferrexpo fell another 10% as it becomes increasingly clear the Ukrainian government are out to get them.

The increase in copper price helped CAML:Central Asia Metals to go up 5%  so my biggest holding in these is only 2% down now.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy also went up 5% but are 72% down overall.

WHR:Warehouse REIT had an increased offer to buy them out and are minded to accept it. The offer will mean I make a tiny profit and shares went up 5% but are still below the price being offered to buy the company. It would be nice if a rival bid came in but there's no sign of that happening.

JLP:Jubilee Metals is my 2nd biggest holding and went up 6%. Could this mean the institutions have stopped selling? Still no sign of results so it's likely they will be next week but there's a risk of a big drop afterwards. We know there was virtually no copper produced so a lot depends on how well chrome performed and if there is any extra news on top.

Share of the week was PAF:Pan African Resources which went up 7% as gold continues to go up. My holding is now up by 51% and it's a shame this is my only remaining gold miner.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 35 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£48.09+£0.07
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£46,644.52(-59.2%)-£1,533.48
Potential profits£283.99+£225.27
Yr 10 Dividends£109.23+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.85            +£0.03
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£46.01(0.6%)-£1.35
Total Dividends£12,417.18+£0
Total Interest£7.65+£0.03
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£254.09(3.6%)-£0.50
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

A welcome rise in potential profits thanks to a 4% increase in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, but drop in value of £1,533. Long term performance is pretty dreadful as I haven't sold anything in ages.


The flatness continues.


Still above the trend line, but it will be getting steeper in the short term.


The SIPP looks like this after week 487 overall and week 19 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£270.21
+£9.68
Portfolio cost£126,257.05
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£67,773.04(-46.3%)-£1,104.43
Potential profits£4,189.17
+£368.64
Yr 10 Dividends£542.16
+£9.30
Yr 10 Interest£1.30
+£0.05
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£647.32(9.4%)-£33.71
Total Dividends£16,658.81
+£9.30
Total Interest£14.20
+£0.05
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£307.82(4.5%)-£0.55
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+0%

A £9 dividend came from BHP:BHP Group and although value dropped by £1,104, potential profits went up by £368 thanks to PAF:Pan African Resources, ALPH:Alpha Group and ALU:Alumasc Group.


More flatness but costs have been going up.


Dipping slightly below the trend line


Hopefully this will take a leap up if JLP:Jubileee Metals sorts itself out.

I've had confirmation that my pension transfer has been processed, so it should come through next week. I'm currently planning to invest half in IHP:Integrafin, as they posted a record quarter last quarter and should be due an update on the most recent quarter very soon. The other half will be RIO:Rio Tinto which seems undervalued given the recent rises in copper prices. Both are existing holdings and will average down my purchase price.

Sunday, 23 March 2025

Week 502 Review - A mixed week but ended in the black.

A mixed week, with small gains in my larger holdings but some big losses too. The result was a narrowing of the deficit between cost and value by £2,750 to £123,554 and a narrowing of the deficit between injection amount and value to £50,749 and increase in portfolio value to £117,055.

The biggest loser was FXPO:Ferrexpo which seems to be getting screwed over by the Ukrainian government due to the behaviour of their ex-CEO. They dropped 22% and are now 87% down.

PBX:Probiotix Health had a bad week last week and another bad week this week, dropping 11% for no reason other than no new news.

TRX:Tissue Regenix continue their relentless plummet and dropped another 10% this week to go 74% down, meaning any buy-out is going to be for practically nothing.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics have had a good few weeks but I think there was some profit taking this week, as the price dropped 8%.

FOUR:4imprint continue to be hammered despite good results and dropped another 5% this week. I will be buying more when my pension transfer comes through.

Gold continued to ride high, but PAF:Pan African Resources had a bad start to the week as an institutional investor sold their entire holding via a placing and severely damaged the share price. A late rally saw it increase by 5% in the end, with my holding now 40% up.

CAML:Central Asia Metals benefitted from a rise in copper and good results, and went up 6% but they are still a long way down on what they are worth.

OPTI:Optibiotix gave a great trading update and went up 6%, but that's only a rise of 1p, when in the old days you could expect a 10p rise for something like that.

CWR:Ceres Power have been clobbered lately but recovered 11% this week. They are still 70% down and I'm worried about them.

SCT:Softcat had a good trading update beating expectations and went up 11% so my holding is within a whisker of going into profit and only down by commission.

FDM:FDM Group said there are signs of recovery and went up an impressive 15%, but my holding is still down by 22% after the last few months of misery.

Share of the Week is TLOU:Tlou Energy which went up 208% after dropping dramatically for the last few weeks. I really don't know what's going on, but it does mean my holding is only 12% down and with electricity production not that far away I'm hopeful this will eventually go into profit.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 34 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash £48.02 +£0
Portfolio cost £114,352.47 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£48,178.00 (-57.9%) +£1,488.49
Potential profits £58.72 -£450.54
Yr 10 Dividends £109.23 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £0.82             +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales £327.55 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £47.36 (0.7%) -£1.43
Total Dividends £12,417.18 +£0
Total Interest £7.62 +£0
Total Profit from sales £17,602.85 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £254.59 (3.6%) -£0.51
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 35% +0%

Very little happened. Decent rise in value but nearly all potential profits wiped out by the drop in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics.


Looking fairly flat for a few months now.


Still above the trend line, but really need to return to the level around week 478 to turn it around.


The SIPP looks like this after week 486 overall and week 18 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£260.53
+£203.27
Portfolio cost£126,257.05
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£68,877.47(-45.4%)+£1,262.00
Potential profits£3,820.53
+£107.16
Yr 10 Dividends£532.86
+£103.27
Yr 10 Interest£1.25
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£681.03(9.9%)-£13.75
Total Dividends£16,649.51
+£103.27
Total Interest£14.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£308.37(4.5%)+£0.28
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+0%

Cash went up thanks to a tax rebate and £103 dividend from IPX:Impax Asset Management. That's a hell of a dividend! Potential profits rose by £107 thanks only to PAF:Pan African Resources as most profitable shares dropped in value. The dividend was big enough for long term performance to go up a little.


The gap to injection amount just won't get any narrower.


Pretty much on the trend line. Better than being below it, but a similar problem to the ISA that I need to get above the level from week 452.


JLP:Jubilee Metals went up by 4% this week. Not enough to make the headlines, and just a 0.15p rise. However it's enough to put some of my SIPP holdings within 10% of profit, although my biggest ISA holding is still down by 44%. The fact it went up instead of relentlessly down could point to the institutional sellers having finished. Results are expected next week so I will be holding my breath as there's a risk they will be quite bad, but a possibility they will include a production update for copper at Roan. Something significant is likely to happen but I don't know in which direction.

Sunday, 16 March 2025

Week 501 Review - Massive drops for many shares but SkinBioTherapeutics soars.

An absolutely horrible week, with some massive drops not offset by the few decent rises. The deficit between cost and value widened by £3,193 to £126,304 and the deficit between injection amount and value increased to £53,702. Total portfolio value dropped to £114,410.

The biggest drop was TLOU:Tlou Energy, which fell 38% after good news. It appears possible that the drop was caused by UK investors selling share account stock so they can move the cash into their ISAs because it's cheaper to do this with ASX stock than use the bed & ISA process, especially when you tank the share price and can buy many more back. My holding is now down 72% and I've not had them very long.

FOUR:4imprint dropped 21% despite announcing big profits because there was a warning that the 2025 outlook might not be as good. I can't believe it fell 21% on that, as the outlook wasn't for profits to fall 21%. I'd buy a load more if I had any cash.

CAPD:Capital fell 17% after the CEO resigned and profits may not be as strong as hoped. I won't be buying any more of these even if I had the cash.

PBX:Probiotix Health have been drifting for the last few weeks and fell 14% this week to scupper any chance I have of selling some.

AFC:AFC Energy continue to drop after the Bosch saga, with another 8% fall this week.

ALPH:Alpha Group dropped 7% for no obvious reason. Results are expected next week which will see it either go back into profit or drop further.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha dropped 6% for no reason.

OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 6% for no obvious reason, possibly caused by people selling to switch to SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics.

TRX:Tissue Regenix fell another 5% as it collapses utterly before being bought out for peanuts.

It wasn't all bad news. IPX:Impax Asset Management went up 6%, possibly because people saw an institutional investor had finished selling some of its stake.

WHR:Warehouse REIT went up another 6% and is getting close to the potential buy-out price. I'm voting against as it's an insulting offer at a discount to NAV.

ASHM:Ashmore Group went up 7% after being given an upgrade by analysts.

FXPO:Ferrexpo went up 11% as it continues to yo-yo wildly.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy climbed 11% after getting a contract for providing electricity via battery storage capacity at Uskmouth.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which went up an impressive 29%, possibly due to Croda being about to launch the new lysate product imminently.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 33 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash £48.02 -£4.27
Portfolio cost £114,352.47 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£46,689.51 (-59.2%) -£959.20
Potential profits £509.26 +£509.26
Yr 10 Dividends £109.23 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £0.82             +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales £327.55 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £48.79 (0.7%) -£2.10
Total Dividends £12,417.18 +£0
Total Interest £7.62 +£0
Total Profit from sales £17,602.85 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £255.10 (3.6%) -£0.55
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 35% +0%

The drop was offset by a big climb for SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics, which is also responsible for the miraculous £509 increase in potential profits from £0. Cash dropped due to monthly fees.


Kinda flat.


Still above the trend line, which is all that matters to me.


The SIPP looks like this after week 485 overall and week 17 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£57.26
-£1.67
Portfolio cost£126,257.05
+£248.72
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£67,615.47(-46.4%)-£2,233.89
Potential profits£3,713.37
-£61.79
Yr 10 Dividends£429.59
+£0
Yr 10 Interest£1.25
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£694.77(10.1%)-£44.22
Total Dividends£16,546.24
+£0
Total Interest£14.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£308.09(4.5%)-£0.66
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+0%

I did my monthly investment, buying 13 shares in BHP:BHP Group at 1901.72p costing £248.72. That takes my average price to 1975.47p so I'm only 2% down and I have 2 more months of buying them.

Sell value was hit very hard, as some of the biggest losers were in my SIPP and I have very few SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutcs shares here. The ones I do have are still 30% down. My sell target for those is 41p and they are currently at 24.5p so I have a bit of a wait.


A bit more of a pronounced dip here.


Below the trend line, which is very upsetting, as this is meant to be my sensible account. I think the massive investment in JLP:Jubilee Metals has blown the claim for sensible buying, but I really thought I'd be able to get a decent profit to invest in sensible shares. So far I appear to have been wrong.


I'm hoping there will be a production report for February from JLP:Jubilee Metals, as they should have been running at full capacity for most of the month on high grade material. It needs something positive like that for the price to recover.

Tuesday, 11 March 2025

Week 500 Review - Celebrating 500th week with a small rise.

My 500th week, and I was hoping for some great news to celebrate. Unfortunately most of my stocks fell in value, but fortunately my biggest holdings sneaked up a fraction, meaning the deficit between cost and value narrowed by £1,661 to £123,111 and the deficit between injection amount and value dropped to £50,502. Total portfolio value is £117,360.

Worst performer was CWR:Ceres Power which dropped another 15% after Bosch cancelled all agreements and their representative left the board. Pretty devastating considering this was the longest-running collaboration, and it explains why the joint venture never got signed when it was supposed to.

AFC:AFC Energy continue to plummet, assisted by lots of people shorting it. They dropped another 7% to go 61% down.

ALU:Alumasc Group have been doing really well, but dropped 7% this week for no obvious reason. My holding is still 58% up so it's not the end of the world.

ASHM:Ashmore Group fell 5% to go 46% down.

TRX:Tissue Regenix is in freefall ever since they suggested selling the company, and dropped another 5% this week to go 70% down and guarantee I'll end up with a big loss no matter what happens.

There was good news for PAF:Pan African Resources after I bought a load more, with the price increasing by 13% and taking me 33% in profit.

Share of the week is WHR:Warehouse REIT, which has had a buy-out offer for 110p. That would give me a small loss on the shares, but a profit if you count the dividends. However, the offer has been rejected as it doesn't even cover the NAV value. The price still rocketed by 21% so my holding is only 11% down. It's in my AJ Bell dealing account so I'll take the cash out to replenish my savings if I get a chance to sell, as the cash in there was meant to be temporary or moved into the ISA.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 32 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£52.29-£3.75
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£47,648.71(-58.3%)+£720.09
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£109.23+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.82            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£50.89(0.7%)-£2.17
Total Dividends£12,417.18+£0
Total Interest£7.62+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£255.65(3.6%)-£0.54
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

Very little happened apart from ISA fees and a small tick upwards in value.


Not a lot to see.


Still just above the trend line


No chance of this changing any time soon.

The SIPP looks like this after week 484 overall and week 16 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£58.93
+£9.12
Portfolio cost£126,008.33
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£69,600.64(-44.8%)+£940.97
Potential profits£3,775.16
+£312.47
Yr 10 Dividends£429.59
+£25.78
Yr 10 Interest£1.25
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£738.99(10.7%)-£46.63
Total Dividends£16,546.24
+£25.78
Total Interest£14.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£308.75(4.5%)-£0.56
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+0%

Cash went up by the £25 dividend from IGG:IG Group minus monthly SIPP fees, value up nicely and potential profits up by £312.


Maintaining the gap to the injection line.


Fractionally above the trend line, but nowhere near enough to change the direction any time soon.


A pretty quiet week for number 500. Still no news from JLP:Jubilee Metals, but the fact it didn't go down in value is a big relief. Whether it means the big seller has finished, I don't know.

My next pay cheque brings my pension above the £2,000 transfer cut-off, so I hope to have some more to put into magic formula shares soon. Almost certainly more IHP:Integrafin and possibly RIO:Rio Tinto.

Sunday, 2 March 2025

Week 499 Review - Bad week across most of the portfolio.

This week was just generally bad. A 0.5p rise in OPTI:Optibiotix mitigated the losses a little, but nearly everything was down, so the deficit between cost and value widened by £2,859 to £124,772 and the gap between injection amount and value widened to £52,168. The overall portfolio value dropped to £115,694.

The biggest loser was TLOU:Tlou Energy, with a 16% drop, although there has been no negative news, so it's likely part of the continuing slide until they start generating electricity.

PBX:Probiotix Health dropped 9% which was likely profit taking after the big rise last week.

AFC:AFC Energy and JLP:Jubilee Metals both fell 8%. AFC is being shorted I think, and JLP is still having institutions selling their stock as they close funds that were invested. POLR:Polar Capital also dropped 8% but there is no apparent reason.

BHP:BHP Group and RIO:Rio Tinto both dropped 6% in a week when most metals shares were bashed.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining dropped 5% presumably for the same reason as the two above, and also dropping 5% for no obvious reason were CWR:Ceres Power, FOUR:4imprint, IHP:Integrafin, IPX:Impax Asset Management and SCT:Softcat.

Only two shares grew by a decent amount this week. The first was UKW:Greencoat UK Wind climbing 6%, but my holding is still 27% down.

Share of the Week is recent investment BPM:BP Marsh & Partners, which rose 7% after an excellent trading statement, with my holding now only 3% down.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 31 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£56.04+£0
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£46,928.62(-59.0%)-£1,398.07
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£109.23+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.82            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£53.06(0.7%)-£1.77
Total Dividends£12,417.18+£0
Total Interest£7.62+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£256.19(3.6%)-£0.52
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

Not much happened apart from a big drop in value, largely caused by JLP:Jubilee Metals and PBX:Probiotix Health.


I was hoping we'd be heading back up by now, but no.


Relieved to be just above the trend line, but going on the same direction.


The SIPP looks like this after week 483 overall and week 15 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£49.81
-£0.28
Portfolio cost£126,008.33
+£502.38
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£68,659.67(-45.5%)-£1,461.34
Potential profits£3,462.69
-£256.01
Yr 10 Dividends£403.81
+£52.10
Yr 10 Interest£1.25
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£785.62(11.4%)-£39.99
Total Dividends£16,520.46
+£52.10
Total Interest£14.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£309.31(4.5%)-£0.17
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+0%

I received £10 dividend from BPM:BP Marsh & Partners, £17 from GAW:Games Workshop and £24 from UKW:Greencoat UK Wind. Potential profits dropped £256 thanks to most shares dropping.

I decided to inject £450 into the account to go with the dividends and bought another 14,382 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 3.41p costing £502.38. They had better turn around soon as I shouldn't be buying non-dividend paying shares in my SIPP, but I can't help myself at these prices, especially now we're going full steam on copper production. I hope to sell the shares along with my other cheap batch for 7.5p, which would get me a total of £2,456 profit and liberate £5,081 for magic formula shares.

I have targets on all my JLP SIPP shares. The first lot is 6p which would make £727 profit and liberate £2,082, then the ones above at 7.5p, then 8.8p making £1,931 profit and liberating £4,012, then 10p to make £1,173 profit and liberate £4,583, then 10.5p to make £1,703 and liberate £3,005, closely followed by 11.5p to make £522 profit and liberate £3,277. So if all goes to plan, I'll get a total of £8,515 profit and be able to buy £22,000 worth of magic formula shares. However, so far nothing has gone to plan!


Still much better than the ISA


Back down on the trend line.


We really, really need a production update from JLP:Jubilee Metals with some actual figures for copper, as nothing else is likely to shift the price. However, if that production is impressive, then maybe I can put my plans above into action.

Meanwhile my plans to sell some PBX:Probiotix Health were scuppered this week by it dropping to 10.5p, so I may as well stick with my original plan and wait for 13.5p.

Sunday, 23 February 2025

Week 498 Review - Dreadful week for most of the portfolio, but microbiome shares all rally.

A very strange week, with some massive falls and most of my portfolio losing money, but a decent rise in all three of my microbiome shares meant the deficit between cost and value narrowed by £6,047 to £121,913 and deficit between injection amount and value narrowed to £49,361. Total portfolio value increased to £118,051.

The biggest loser was CWR:Ceres Power who announced the end of their relationship with Bosch.  The fact Bosch have pulled the plug after all these years is devastating, and predictably the shares crashed 44% and are now 65% down and I fear the worst.

FXPO:Ferrexpo have been very volatile but this week crashed 21% presumably as things are getting a bit tense over the nature of any US negotiated peace deal. It only dropped them 4% to 84% down for me though.

TRX:Tissue Regenix have been hinting at selling the company, but it hadn't impacted the share price until last week. This week the drop accelerated, falling 17% to go 68% down. Every penny it drops will increase my losses if they do sell out.

IPX:Impax Asset Management had their dividend ex-date on Thursday which wiped 10% off the share price, and it fell another 5% to go 15% down in the week. My holding is now 59% down. I should be buying more just for the 10% dividend yield.

ASHM:Ashmore Group had been recovering of late, but this week dropped 7% to go 45% down.

UKW:Greencoat UK Wind have been drifting, but the drift turned into a nose-dive this week as they dropped 6% to go 31% down.

AFC:AFC Energy , FDM:FDM Group and IHP:Integrafin all dropped 5% in a really rubbish week.

Rubbish apart from all my microbiome shares.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics climbed 8% and my biggest holding is only 10% down now, but my other 2 are 43% and 48% down.

OPTI:Optibiotix launched a new product in USA which used to drive really big rises, but it managed 13% which isn't bad. Most of my holdings are at least 50% down, and my biggest is 72% down. One of my ISA holdings is only down 19% so it needs a 5p rise to get into profit.

Share of the Week is PBX:Probiotix Health which soared 28% and my smallest holding is now 41% in profit. I suspect there's a very good chance I'll sell it next week so I can buy more IHP:Integrafin. The big holdings from my free shares are still down 44%. Not sure how I'll ever sell them though, as Hargreaves Lansdown don't allow electronic trades on Aquis. I'm hoping PBX will list on AIM or LSE before I want to sell those.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 30 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£56.04+£0
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£48,326.69(-57.7%)+£3,153.07
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£109.23+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.82            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£54.83(0.8%)-£1.89
Total Dividends£12,417.18+£0
Total Interest£7.62+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£256.71(3.6%)-£0.52
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

Great rise as most of the big falls were in my SIPP.


Nice tick up.


Above the trend line!


The SIPP looks like this after week 482 overall and week 14 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£50.09
-£21.33
Portfolio cost£125,505.95
-£327.18
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£69,618.63(-44.5%)+£2,567.67
Potential profits£3,718.70
+£155.01
Yr 10 Dividends£351.71
+£0
Yr 10 Interest£1.25
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
-£233.44
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£825.61(12.0%)-£141.32
Total Dividends£16,468.36
+£0
Total Interest£14.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
-£233.44
Average monthly cash profit£309.48(4.5%)-£2.75
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+0%

Much complication this week as there were tax rebates, buys and a sell.

I got fed up with CMCL:Caledonia Mining. Every time I've owned them they have been useless, and I was sitting on a loss despite gold being at an all-time high. I sold my 218 shares at 822p for a £233.44 (11.6%) loss because I was desperate to buy back into PAF:Pan African Resources after their recent drop. I bought 4,981 shares at 35.4958p costing £1,788.84, which helped make up for the ones I sold a few months ago. Unfortunately there's no other gold mining share I'd be happy buying at the moment, so if I want gold it has to all be PAF.

Big rise in value and even a small £155 rise in potential profit as the big fallers were loss-making and a few magic formula shares sneaked a little higher. Long term performance took a little dent, but I'm hoping it will be worth it.


The gap to orange is frustratingly narrow. It would be so nice to at least get above that so I'm not behind what I originally put in.


Only just above the trend line, but better than below it as we were last week.


That's it for this week. Will the microbiome momentum continue into next week, or will profit-takers spoil the rise? Will JLP:Jubilee Metals finally see the back of the big sellers and change direction? Will I be able to sell my AJ Bell PBX:Probiotix Health shares? Can't wait to find out.

Saturday, 15 February 2025

Week 497 Review - Took some Pan African Resources profits and major holdings dropped again.

A fairly mixed week with my top two holdings falling, but my next 2 biggest gaining. It was looking like a reasonable week until JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped 0.25p in the last 15 minutes of trading and extended what would have been a very small £234 loss out to £1,776, although £700 of that was due to cashing in some profits. That was on the back of good news, so I can only hope it was a tree shake and it will head back up next week. The deficit between cost and value is now £127,961 and the deficit between injection amount and value is £55,061, with total portfolio value £112,352.

Worst performer was PAF:Pan African Resources, which dropped 16% after a profit warning and then interim results. I sold my original SIPP holding as soon as the profit warning was announced, but kept my larger holding.

AFC:AFC Energy have had a few good weeks, but it was back to normal this week with an 11% drop.

TRX:Tissue Regenix hasn't changed price for months, but dropped 9% this week for no obvious reason. It looks like the board are contemplating selling the company, which given my holding is down 62% would almost certainly mean me making a loss.

ARBB:Arbuthnot Banking had been heading upwards recently, but dropped 5% this week to go 10% down.

CWR:Ceres Power is a nightmare, and fell another 5% this week to go 37% down.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy drifted downwards 5% this week and are now 75% down.

ALU:Alumasc Group continued their upward progression after good results last week, and gained another 5% this week to go 74% up.

WHR:Warehouse REIT had a very rare good week, climbing 6% to go 24% down and change from orangered to orange.

CMCL:Caledonia Mining have completely ignored the recent rise in gold and have been flat, but a 7% increase this week puts them just 13% down.

Share of the Week is PBX:Probiotix Health, which went up an amazing 20% to 9p while my other microbiome shares dropped. It means my big dividend holding is still down 56%, but my small SIPP holding is up 10% and making £50 potential profit. My target to sell is 17p, which would be 100% profit and liberate £1000 to move to a magic formula share, however I may sell at 13.5p to liberate £800 because I could buy more IHP:Integrafin shares and increase that holding to £2,000.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 29 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£56.04-£4.44
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£45,173.62(-60.5%)-£435.22
Potential profits£0+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£109.23+£0
Yr 10 Interest£0.82            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£56.72(0.8%)-£2.71
Total Dividends£12,417.18+£0
Total Interest£7.62+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£257.23(3.6%)-£0.55
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

Cash dropped due to AJ Bell fees and portfolio value only dropped £435 thanks to the PBX:Probiotix Health rise.


Not great.


Fractionally above the trend line but following it down.



The SIPP looks like this after week 481 overall and week 13 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£71.42
-£271.62
Portfolio cost£125,833.13
+£979.77
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£67,050.96(-46.7%)-£1,341.20
Potential profits£3,563.69
-£1,090.01
Yr 10 Dividends£351.71
+£8.80
Yr 10 Interest£1.25
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,609.31
+£702.41
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£966.82(14.1%)+£175.15
Total Dividends£16,468.36
+£8.80
Total Interest£14.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,617.25
+£702.41
Average monthly cash profit£312.23(4.6%)+£5.75
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance42%+1%

Lots happened here. First there was my regular monthly investment where I bought 12 shares at 2030.1698p costing £245.12 in BHP:BHP Group. My holding is now up by 1% and making £2 potential profit. I'll probably invest in these for another 3 months to get my cost of purchase over £1,000.

I've been concerned about AAL:Anglo American Mining for a while now, as they are way down my magic formula ranking and struggling to sell of various bits of the company. I wanted to get cheap JLP:Jubilee Metals shares as I thought they were about to rocket, so I sold my 41 AAL shares at 2462.25p making a £17.31 (1.3%) loss, which becomes less of a loss if you include the £13.11 dividend. I used the proceeds to buy 26,050 shares in JLP at 3.878p costing £1,022.17. Needless to say they are now 3.7p to buy so I've lost money yet again. I should stress that the JLP purchase isn't long term, it's based on my conviction a re-rate will happen soon so I can sell them to move into dividend paying miners.

I sold my remaining AJ Bell PAF:Pan African Resources shares after the profit warning. I sold 3200 shares at 39.9165p making £719.73 (131.3%) profit. It was well timed as they ended the week at 35.35p. I will buy them back if they stay around that level. I bought more JLP:Jubilee Platinum shares with the proceeds, hoping to double my money to buy back into PAF. I bought 32,860 shares at 3.88p costing £1,279.97.

The result of all that was a big increase in year 10 projected profit and a more modest £5.75 a month increase in long-term performance. It's going to take some much, much bigger profits to get the long term figure anywhere near 10%.

I also got an £8 dividend from GAW:Games Workshop.


Value has been following cost upwards, but not at the same rate, as the gap is getting wider.


Below the trend line. Deeply depressing.


Morale boosted by a tick up in realised profits.

I hope I've done the right thing by piling into a load more JLP:Jubilee Metals shares in my SIPP. It goes against my magic formula policy, but I have no ready cash in my ISA, and couldn't let this potential opportunity slip. JLP are producing copper at Roan using high grade material which will allow them to exceed their original guidance that they had before the slide in share price following the power supply problems. That means they should at least return to the rate they were before that happened, which was 4.9p. Even that price would get me £800 profit on the shares I just bought, but I would hold out for 6.2p on one and 7.5p on the other, putting proceeds into CAM:Central Asia Metals, PAF:Pan African Resources, BHP:BHP Group and RIO:Rio Tinto.

My SIPP holding in JLP is now 235,342 shares costing £12,949, but if all my price targets are met between 6.2p and 10.6p I would get £7,706 profit and liberate £20,656 for magic formula shares. A 10.6p share price would also put my 335,780 ISA shares £14,193 in profit, but I want to keep those as 20p seems realistic for £45,756 potential profit. If they get that far then I'll hold long term for the dividend. although may top slice a few.

It's nice to dream.

Let's see what next week brings...