Week 494 Review - A reasonable week as Jubilee Metals recovers a little.

It was quite a bad week for the majority of my portfolio, with more shares down than up. However, a decent rise in both JLP:Jubilee Metals and PBX:Probiotix Health offset the losses and the deficit between cost and value narrowed by £1,584 to £121,795. The deficit between injection amount and value reduced to £49,628, and portfolio value increased to £117,534, helped by a £2,000 pension transfer.

Worst performer was CWR:Ceres Power, which dropped 11% to go 33% down.

CAPD:Capital fell 7% and is now 31% down with little prospect of me being able to get rid of them without taking a big loss.

TRY:TR Property Investment hasn't been behaving like a magic formula share as it is quite volatile. It dropped 5% this week to go 7% down.

JLP:Jubilee Metals went up 5%, but as my 2nd largest holding was a major contributor to this week's gains. I revised my target sell prices in the SIPP to allow me to get rid of them more quickly, but I still need them to go up to 7.5p from 4.5p this week before I sell any.

ASHM:Ashmore Group went up 6% but my holding is still 42% down. Hopefully if China looks like improving this will help ASHM.

FDM:FDM Group went up 6% and are now just 15% down, although that's still pretty disappointing given I've only had them a few weeks.

GAW:Games Workshop climbed 7% despite going ex-dividend this week, and my holding is now 54% up so dividend yield is going to be getting better and better.

PBX:Probiotix Health gave a decent trading statement, and shares went up 8%, but that still leaves me 66% down on the IPO price.

Share of the week was FOUR:4imprint, which went up 12% after a trading statement saying profit would be above expectations. Really glad I finished buying these with my monthly investment a few months ago, as they are now 6% in profit and looking pretty good.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 26 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£64.18		+£0
Portfolio cost	£114,352.47		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£48,782.13	(-57.3%)	+£989.69
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 10 Dividends	£109.18		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£0.82		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£327.55		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£64.62	(0.9%)	-£2.58
Total Dividends	£12,417.13		+£0
Total Interest	£7.62		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,602.85		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£258.86	(3.6%)	-£0.52
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	35%		+0%

Not much happened, but large numbers of JLP:Jubilee Metals shares meant a £989 increase in this account.

2025 remains up, but can it last? If JLP:Jubilee Metals and OPTI:Optibiotix sort themselves out then it may. I've been saying that for quite a long time though.

Just above the trend line, but much better than being below it.

The SIPP looks like this after week 478 overall and week 10 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£59.73		-£56.44
Portfolio cost	£124,853.36		+£2,368.94
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£68,628.61	(-45.0%)	+£594.89
Potential profits	£4,391.50		+£292.54
Yr 10 Dividends	£292.94		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£1.25		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£1,906.90		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£935.71	(13.7%)	-£103.97
Total Dividends	£16,409.59		+£0
Total Interest	£14.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£18,914.84		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£307.46	(4.5%)	-£0.65
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	41%		-1%

I had a tax rebate so injected £150 to go with it and bought another 6,682 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 4.714p costing £319.99. The share price had a wobble just after so I could have got them cheaper if I had waited.

I also had my £2,000 pension transfer, so had another look at my magic formula spreadsheet. I tried ranking them without taking dividend into account, and that promoted ALPH:Alpha Group International near the top. They are a FTSE 250 company combining fintech and consultancy, and most of their investors are institutions. Their share price has taken an occasional nosedive, but they seem short term and there has been steady growth for the last 7 years. At a P/E ratio of 11.6 they are not ridiculously cheap, but not worryingly expensive either.

They are still 39th in the magic formula ranking if I include the dividend, but zoom up to 6th if dividend ranking is removed. They are ranked 11th on 5-year growth and 14th on ROI, with debt dropping them a bit as they are ranked 74th. For divi they are only ranked 306th as it's a bit stingy, but I'm hoping share price growth will make up for that, and they may pay a special divi if they have excess cash. I bought 40 shares at 2457p costing £999.66.

The other company I've been watching for a while is BPM:BP Marsh & Partners. They invest in early stage financial services businesses, so by specialising in an area they know lots about, I figure they have more chance of being successful. Their share price was growing fairly steadily for 5 years, but much quicker for the last 2, with a spike upwards at the end of 2024. They are down a bit off that spike now, but with a P/E ratio of 6 seem quite cheap. In my magic formula spreadsheet they rank 5 on debt, 31 on growth, 67 on ROI and 289 on dividend, resulting in an overall ranking of 33. I bought 149 shares at 696.2p costing £1,049.29.

Potential profits went up £292 thanks to rises in FOUR:4imprint, GAW:Games Workshop, AJB:AJ Bell, III:3i Group, JLP:Jubilee Metals and PAF:Pan African Resources, with some of the shine taken off by drops in IGG:IG Group, BHP:BHP Group and ALU:Alumasc Group. Portfolio value increased by less that the ISA due to fewer JLP:Jubilee Metals shares being held.

The injection line is trying to get away from the green line!

Not as far above the trend line as the ISA, but the line is a lot less steep.

There were quite a few candidates for my pension transfer money this week. I was considering doubling my holding in IHP:Integrafin and RIO:Rio Tinto but will probably use proceeds from selling JLP:Jubilee Metals to do that. I'm also watching BRK:Brooks Macdonald Group. They are an investment management company and rank number 24 on my magic formula, and are about to move to the main market from AIM. The problem is their share price has been nose-diving for the last five months and their P/E ratio is 37, so they are definitely not cheap even at this price. They intend moving to the main market in March, so I will watch them in the lead up to that and if there's a reversal of their decline, may get some. It's encouraging that in the past I would have waded straight in and bought them, but I've caught too many falling knives and suffered lengthy periods in the red to do that again.

Week 493 Review - A great week for almost everything.

A great week for most of the portfolio, but a 0.5p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix took the shine off. I still recouped all last week's losses plus a little more, so 2025 is back in the black.

The deficit between cost and value narrowed by £5,904 to £123,379 and deficit between injection amount and value reduced to £51,375. Total portfolio value increased to £113,637.

AFC:AFC Energy had recovered a little, but dropped 6% this week to go 49% down.

FDM:FDM Group inexplicably dropped 6% too. I don't know why, as their fundamentals are sound. I can only assume the market thinks AI will remove all their jobs. This has dropped 19% in just a few weeks since I invested.

I have to mention BLU:Blue Star Capital, as although my holding is still down by 96% so I wouldn't normally bother reporting on them, they went up 300% this week after the owner of SatoshiPay bought a load of shares. It made no difference to my holding, and this is still a complete basket case.

AAL:Anglo American Mining went up 5% and is now 2% in profit. I'm a little torn as to what to do with them, as they are ranked 269th on my magic formula ranking, so in theory I should get rid of them now they are in profit. However, they are selling off chunks of the business in prep for being taken over, which I think could yield quite a bit of reward, so I'll hang on to them.

FOUR:4imprint have been rubbish since I finished accumulating as my monthly saving, but this week went up 6% and are now only 6% down, so hopefully things have settled down and these will get into profit.

WHR:Warehouse REIT has been a disaster of a magic formula share, and is ranked 225th now, so is another one I should sell. They went up 6% this week but are still 28% down. It's only 19% down if you include the dividend, and it's in my dealing account, so the plan is to sell and take out the cash to put back in premium bonds, but probably when the dividends balance out the loss, or they get into profit.

IGG:IG Group went up 7% this week and are now 28% up, or 45% if you include their wonderful dividend. I did sell 25% of my holding a while back but will keep the rest. They are 31st in my magic formula ranking and I only sell once they drop out of the top 50.

POLR:Polar Capital went up 7% this week, so are only 7% down, or 4% if you include dividends. These are ranked 4 in my magic formula so I should still be accumulating.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics has been drifting lately, but rebounded 8% this week for no clear reason. I think it will be at least April before the long awaited re-rate happens.

TRY:TR Property Investment recovered all its recent losses and bounced back by 8% this week, so is now only 2% down. They are 7 in my magic formula which is why I bought them recently.

AJB:AJ Bell has had a few odd weeks, but recovered by 10% this week and is now 48% up. They are ranked 8 in my magic formula so will continue to hold.

PSN:Persimmon climbed a massive 12% after a great trading statement, but they are still 17% down after being in profit not that long ago. They are 41 in my magic formula ranking, so still in the top 50 but only just.

IHP:Integrafin went up a massive 14% this week after a very strong trading update. It's rather annoying because I was planning to put half my pension transfer here, but L&G have been dragging their heels again and have now taken a month with no sign of anything happening. My holding is only down by 4% now, but I'll probably still buy some more as they are ranked 3 in the magic formula.

FXPO:Ferrexpo have been a trader's dream recently, with wild swings up and down. This week they went up 18% but are still 77% down in my holding. They are 270th in my magic formula, but that was due to reducing output by over 50% since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and they've stopped the dividend. The fact they are still operating is a huge relief, but I'm trapped with them until something happens for better or for worse.

Share of the Week by a mile was my 2nd largest holding JLP:Jubilee Metals, which soared 30% and made me very happy I bought some last week. One of my SIPP holdings is even in profit. Let's hope the rise continues and I can sell some from my SIPP. The ex-trading shares have now been absorbed into my ISA and I'm planning to keep them.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 25 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£64.18		-£4.36
Portfolio cost	£114,352.47		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£47,792.44	(-58.2%)	+£3,626.01
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 10 Dividends	£109.18		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£0.82		+£0.04
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£327.55		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£67.20	(0.9%)	-£3.59
Total Dividends	£12,417.13		+£0
Total Interest	£7.62		+£0.04
Total Profit from sales	£17,602.85		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£259.38	(3.7%)	-£0.57
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	35%		+0%

Not a lot happened apart from AJ Bell fees, a tiny amount of interest, and a big £3,626 rise in value. If I'd not absorbed my JLP:Jubilee Metals trading shares in with the others then one holding would have been in profit. However I want to keep them until the inevitable buy-out.

Back to where we were 2 weeks ago.

Back above the trend line

I won't comment on this one unless something changes.

The SIPP looks like this after week 477 overall and week 9 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£116.17		-£2.68
Portfolio cost	£122,484.42		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£65,664.78	(-46.4%)	+£2,278.58
Potential profits	£4,098.96		+£549.16
Yr 10 Dividends	£292.94		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£1.25		+£0.17
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£1,906.90		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£1.039.68	(15.6%)	-£151.41
Total Dividends	£16,409.59		+£0
Total Interest	£14.15		+£0.17
Total Profit from sales	£18,914.84		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£308.11	(4.6%)	+£0.67
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	42%		+0%

As with the ISA, AJ Bell fees and a small amount of interest. Portfolio value went up less as I have less JLP:Jubilee Metals, and potential profits went up by £549 helped by AAL:Anglo American Mining, BHP:BHP Group and JLP:Jubilee Metals all moving from loss to profit.

Same as ISA

Touching the trend line rather than above it

It's a relief January is back to being in the black, but there's a long way to go before I can say my portfolio is anything other than a disaster. So much of it is invested in OPTI:Optibiotix (48.5%) and JLP:Jubilee Metals (15.6%), both of which have slumped. I also have 8.8% in PBX:Probiotix Health which is down 70%. So although many of my companies are doing really well, if these three don't sort themselves out, then the whole portfolio is in a mess.

I should have listened to the advice of every book to diversify and avoid having more than 10% of my holding on one company. I am making moves towards that, with the aim of selling 4.4% worth of JLP:Jubilee Metals in my SIPP so my ISA holding will be 11.2% of my portfolio. 

With OPTI:Optibiotix I plan to sell 4.1% of my holding by getting rid of my cheaper SIPP shares, but that does still leave me with 20.3% in the SIPP. I should really sell those too, but the average price is 60.5p, so if OPTI ever gets back to that, then it would suggest something amazing is going on and I may want to hang onto them for a bit.

The SIPP PBX:Probiotix Health shares make up 4.5% of my portfolio and I'll flog those as soon as they get into profit, which isn't looking terribly likely. It's more likely the company will get sold off for less than I paid for them (although it was a virtual payment seeing I was given them as an OPTI dividend).

Fingers crossed that we don't lose all this next week.

Week 492 Review - 2025 reverts to norm and wipes out twice last week's gains.

I was wondering how long last week's good run would last in 2025. Turned out it was a week, as all last weeks gains were wiped out this week, in fact my portfolio dropped almost twice as much as it went up last week. The deficit between cost and value grew by £5,885 to £129,284 and between injection amount and value to £57,273. Total portfolio value dropped to £107,740.

Worst performer was IPX:Impax Asset Management, which gave an update on assets under management which dropped by 8% due to one of the St James's Place funds closing. They will drop by even more when the bigger one closes. However, that knowledge was already in the price, so I don't understand why it dropped another 15%. My holding is now 53% down, which for a magic formula share is dreadful.

FXPO:Ferrexpo dropped 12% as it swings wildly up and down. At least I no longer have a trading account to be tempted by.

ASHM:Ashmore Group and FDM:FDM Group both dropped 10% for no discernible reason.

AJB:AJ Bell, PAGE:Pagegroup and SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics all dropped 9%, again for no obvious reason.

OPTI:Optibiotix and TRY:TR Property Investment both dropped 8%.

TLOU:Tlou Energy dropped 7%.

JLP:Jubilee Metals, POLR:Polar Capital, PSN:Persimmon and UKW:Greencoat UK Wind dropped 6%

CWR:Ceres Power dropped 5%.

Happy 2025!!

The only holding that went up over 5% was SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy, which I'm reluctant to award Share of the Week, but I think I have to as it went up 18% and is now only 75% down so I can change its colour from red to crimson. I still don't hold out much hope for getting back to profit though.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 24 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£68.54		-£104.98
Portfolio cost	£114,352.47		+£104.98
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£44,166.43	(-61.4%)	-£3,082.00
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 10 Dividends	£109.18		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£0.78		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£327.55		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£70.79	(1.0%)	-£3.08
Total Dividends	£12,417.13		+£0
Total Interest	£7.58		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,602.85		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£259.95	(3.7%)	-£0.53
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	35%		-1%

I incorporated the trading account into this one before re-setting the numbers for week 24, so although figures have changed to take account of the trading account, none of those changes are in the weekly differences.

Cash went down and cost went up by £104 as I used the cash from the trading account and any that was lying in the account to buy 2,989 shares of JLP:Jubilee Metals at 3.345p costing £104.98. I had to find some way to get more at this stupid price, as it will go up when the institutions stop selling.

Not the lowest point but getting there.

Back below the trend line. Great!

I'd like to introduce a new chart - the average monthly profit chart

I haven't really sold anything for a year in the ISA so it's slowly drifting downwards.

The SIPP looks like this after week 476 overall and week 8 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£118.85		-£365.21
Portfolio cost	£122,484.42		+£446.58
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£63,386.20	(-48.2%)	-£2,803.48
Potential profits	£3,549.80		-£37.87
Yr 10 Dividends	£292.94		+£81.37
Yr 10 Interest	£1.08		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£1,906.90		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£1.191.09	(17.6%)	-£96.92
Total Dividends	£16,409.59		+£81.37
Total Interest	£13.98		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£18,914.84		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£308.78	(4.6%)	+£0.09
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	42%		+0%

I got loads of dividends this week, totaling £81. £21 from TRY:TR Property Investment, £31 from POLR:Polar Capital, £18 from III:3i Group and £9 from GSK:GSK. Tragically it's a while before I get any more.

My regular monthly investment happened as I took my first position in BHP:BHP Group, buying 12 shares at 2000.673p costing £241.58.

As with the ISA, I used all spare cash and dividends to buy 5,979 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 3.345p costing £205.

Given it was such a dreadful week, it was nice to see potential profits only dropping by £37, and there were enough dividends to push long term performance up by 9p a month.

Ah well, it was nice to dream for a week.

Back below the trend line here too.

This is much more encouraging, as I've sold a reasonable amount for profit and had lots of dividends, so over the last 12 months the average profit has gone up by about £10 a month. Not too bad considering it's based on a 9-year average.

It's nice to remind myself that over an almost 10 year period I've been making around £550 a month from sales and dividends. It's just a shame that's been wiped out by the drop in portfolio value.

Let's see if things get even worse next week. Surely the JLP:Jubilee Metals seller have to run out soon? Given the strange state of affairs with JLP, when my pension transfer comes through I'll be putting all £2,000 in JLP with the aim of doubling it when the selling stops so I can get more magic formula shares. It will mean my SIPP will have JLP costing £12,000, all of which I plan to sell so I'm left with my ISA holding that cost £21,000. I'll still sell the ones that were originally in my trading account though.

Week 491 Review - A good start to 2025.

A good start to 2025, with more shares gaining than losing. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by £3,916 to £123,415 and deficit between injection amount and value reduced to £51,488. Total portfolio value increased to £113,524.

Worst performer was FXPO:Ferrexpo which dropped 7%. This is moving wildly every week.

IHP:Integrafin dropped 5% which is handy because I want to buy some more when my pension transfer comes through. Given results were good, I don't understand the recent fall.

JLP:Jubilee Metals is an absolute nightmare, with several large institutional investors offloading millions of shares. They are all being mopped up, but it means the fall in price is relentless and I have a whole load bought at what I considered bargain prices that I really need to sell. Fortunately I did sell the ones where I borrowed the money to buy them by selling CAML:Central Asia Metals and made a profit on them as well as buying back CAML at a lower price, but the 5% drop in JLP this week takes it to the lowest price for over a year.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining went up 5% this week but is still 17% down.

AFC:AFC Energy has had 2 good weeks in a row and went up 6% this week, but is still 44% down.

CORE:Solidcore Resources climbed 9% but is still 84% down and I can't sell them until they re-list in the UK.

OPTI:Optibiotix went up 9% which was a significant contribution to this week's gains.

TLOU:Tlou Energy rose 15% but only because they de-listed from AIM and I'm now calculating the share price by converting Australian dollars.

Share of the Week is PBX:Probiotix Health, which went up 18% and will hopefully keep going, but I won't hold my breath is it's still 68% down.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 23 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£102.64		-£3.44
Portfolio cost	£112,093.83		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£46,103.21	(-58.9%)	+£1,870.71
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 10 Dividends	£109.18		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£0.75		+£0.31
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£243.66		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£58.06	(0.8%)	-£3.32
Total Dividends	£12,331.67		+£0
Total Interest	£7.55		+£0.31
Total Profit from sales	£18,121.50		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£264.30	(3.8%)	-£0.57
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	36%		+0%

Cash down by monthly fees minus a small amount of interest, and good £1,870 increase in value. Potential profits are still zero.

Hope this week isn't a blip.

Above the trend line, which is the main objective. It's staying there that's proving tricky.

The SIPP looks like this after week 475 overall and week 7 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£484.06		+£296.75
Portfolio cost	£122,037.84		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£65,743.10	(-46.1%)	+£2,096.66
Potential profits	£3,587.67		+£137.58
Yr 10 Dividends	£211.57		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£1.08		+£0.91
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£1,906.90		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£1.288.01	(19.4%)	-£226.05
Total Dividends	£16,328.22		+£0
Total Interest	£13.98		+£0.91
Total Profit from sales	£18,914.84		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£308.69	(4.6%)	-£0.79
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	42%		+0%

Cash went up thanks to injecting £250 monthly savings which will be spent on BHP:BHP Group next week, which is at a 3-year low but near the top of my magic formula ranking. I also got a tax rebate but had to take off monthly fees. Potential profits went up £137 thanks to small increases in most of my profitable shares.

I wish I could at least get back past the injection line.

Just about touching the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 441 overall and week 25 of year 9.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£70.88		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,150.27		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,020.34	(-52.5%)	-£50.51
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 9 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 9 Interest	£0		+£0
Year 9 Profit	£83.88		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	£14.54	(+8.1%)	-£0.61
Dividends	£85.46		+£0
Interest	£0.03		+£0
Profit from sales	-£518.66		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£4.26	(-2.4%)	+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The only tradable share in this account is now JLP:Jubilee Metals, which dropped again and the account is now 52% down. The whole thing has been a disaster, and I couldn't really be bothered with it any more. I'm a rubbish trader and I'm not using this account the way it should be, mainly because I just can't do it.

With that in mind, I'm giving it up. 

It's cost me £4 a month to learn I can't do it.

I'll figure out a way to move the shares into my main share and ISA accounts and also all the previous transactions. I don't know what impact it will have on my ISA spreadsheet, as I ought to incorporate the performance, but need to do it without messing up the year 10 figures. I'll look for any trades that fall within year 10 and include them, but just put the rest into the long term figures. It will reduce my performance by £518, but also add a load of JLP:Jubilee Metals shares which will hopefully be sold sometime soon.

Here's the final sorry tale of failure.

Absolutely rubbish!

At least writing this will be quicker with one less set of charts to cover.