Sunday, 27 April 2025

Week 507 Review - Flat week but SkinBioTherapeutics may be on a break out.

Generally a flat week, with my two largest holdings not moving, but gains and losses in other big holdings. The deficit between cost and value improved by £660 to £126,539 and the deficit between injection and value reduced to £53,455. Total portfolio value increased to £117,507.

The worst performer was PBX:Probiotix Health, which dropped 1p and 13%. The price seems to be drifting slowly downwards after some brief optimism a few months ago.

PAF:Pan African Resources fell 7% which was presumably profit taking after the recent strong run, as gold is still very high.

TRX:Tissue Regenix continued the recent slide and fell by another 6% to go 76% down.

TLOU:Tlou Energy has been showing some weird prices on ASX, so I've stopped using the bid price and reverted to share price due to the bid price being shown as ludicrously low. As a result the price went up 26% on paper, but is actually the same as last week.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha had a slight recovery, gaining 5% to go 37% down. Not a great performance from this previously strong magic formula share, but worth holding for the great dividend in the hope the price will recover.

CWR:Ceres Power has been all over the place lately, but went up 5% this week. They are 74% down, which is not what I was expecting when they listed on the main market and briefly went into the FTSE 250. I blame massive shorting for the share price drop.

FOUR:4imprint do quite a lot of business in America which may explain the recent collapse in share price, but I don't see how tariffs will impact them. The main drop followed record profits but a note of caution with an uncertain economic outlook. They have £147 million cash so it doesn't seem that uncertain. They recovered 6% this week but are still 41% down. I would buy more if I had cash.

ASHM:Ashmore Group went up 9% for no discernible reason but they are still 50% down. I've had £140 dividends though, so they seem to be doing OK. They are in my dealing account so I'll sell them as soon as I'm not making a huge loss, which may be some time.

FXPO:Ferrexpo continue to bounce up and down and went up 9% this week which unfortunately means they are 89% down and I have to start reporting on them again, until next week when they no doubts go back over 90% down.

Share of the Week is SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which went up 24% and sent my ISA holding into profit by 17%. There does seem to be genuine hope for the new ingredient launched this month by Croda, with standing ovations at the launch event. If they keep climbing then maybe there will be a knock-on for OPTI:Optibiotix who still own 10% of the shares.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 39 of year 11.

Weekly Change
Cash£119.32+£0
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£46,709.85(-59.2%)+£1,015.96
Potential profits£847.16+£847.16
Yr 10 Dividends£138.34+£0
Yr 10 Interest£1.09            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£43.65(0.6%)-£1.14
Total Dividends£12,446.29+£0
Total Interest£7.89+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£252.27(3.6%)+£0.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

I have a big SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutix holding in the ISA, so most of the £1,015 increase is thanks to that, plus potential profits going from nothing to £847 is all down to SBTX.


Pretty flat for 6 months now.


Above the trend line but for how long?


Nearly a year since I sold anything.

The SIPP looks like this after week 491 overall and week 23 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£93.89
-£62.63
Portfolio cost£129,481.05
+£287.63
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£70,584.23(-45.5%)-£355.03
Potential profits£4,840.67
-£128.79
Yr 10 Dividends£633.50
+£0
Yr 10 Interest£2.12
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£548.43(7.7%)-£24.93
Total Dividends£16,750.15
+£0
Total Interest£15.02
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£305.96(4.3%)-£0.62
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

I had some tax rebates in both my AJ Bell and Hargreaves Lansdown accounts so bought a few more JLP:Jubilee Metals shares in anticipation of copper production news being imminent and hopefully giving the share price a boost. 

I bought 3,858 in my AJ Bell account at 3.24p costing £130 and 4,455 in my Hargreaves Lansdown account at 3.27p costing £157.63. Needless to say they dropped shortly afterwards and are 3.1p to sell. Hopefully next week my relentless buying will finally be rewarded, although so far whenever I relentlessly buy something it seems to do worse.

Portfolio value actually dropped by £355 and potential profits by £128 largely thanks to the big drop in PAF:Pan African Resources and the small number of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares in my SIPP.


Value flat but costs going up.


Right on the trend line. I remember the days when my SIPP performance was much better than my ISA, but not any more.


Still hoping for some big JLP:Jubilee Metals sells in the not to distant future to improve the look of this. At least it's better now than it was 12 months ago, most of which was selling part of my PAF:Pan African Resources holding.

Monday, 21 April 2025

Week 506 Review - Great week sees us almost back to pre-tariff value.

A great week for most shares in my portfolio, including my largest holdings. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by £8,424 to £127,200 and the deficit between injection amount and value reduced to £54,291. Total portfolio value increased to £116,621, which is almost back to where it was before Trump announced his tariffs. However, the gains are largely due to my larger holdings and not so much my magic formula shares, many of which which are still down since the tariff announcements.

The only share that dropped significantly was TLOU:Tlou Energy which fell 28%, but I suspect this is a false drop, as ASX does odd things with the bid price. It will likely bounce back next week.

CAML:Central Asia MetalsGAW:Games Workshop, III:3i Group and PAGE:Pagegroup all climbed 6%.

APAX:Apax Global AlphaIPX:Impax Asset Management, JLP:Jubilee Metals and TRY:TR Property Investment all went up by 7%.

ALPH:Alpha Group went up 9% and are back in profit by 1%.

PSN:Persimmon also went up 9% but are still 17% down.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics recovered 11% so my ISA holding is only down by 6% now.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining went up 14% after a good production update.

Share of the Week is OPTI:Optibiotix, who announced a new US deal for Slimbiome which could be a big one and went up 16% in response. We are getting some bigger Slimbiome deals these days, so if they can just generate some decent revenue, then any SweetBiotix announcement will be the icing on the cake.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 38 of year 11.

Weekly Change
Cash £119.32 -£4.34
Portfolio cost £114,352.47 +£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£45,693.89 (-60.0%) +£3,858.29
Potential profits £0 +£0
Yr 10 Dividends £138.34 +£0
Yr 10 Interest £1.09             +£0.03
Yr 10 Profit from sales £327.55 +£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit £44.79 (0.6%) -£1.72
Total Dividends £12,446.29 +£0
Total Interest £7.89 +£0.03
Total Profit from sales £17,602.85 +£0
Average monthly cash profit £252.76 (3.6%) +£0.54
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance 35% +0%

Cash dropped a little due to AJ Bell fees and value soared. Nothing else happened.


Boing.


Back above the trend line.


The SIPP looks like this after week 490 overall and week 22 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£156.52
+£27.21
Portfolio cost£129,193.42
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£70,651.63(-45.3%)+£4,566.28
Potential profits£4,969.46
+£366.49
Yr 10 Dividends£633.50
+£29.92
Yr 10 Interest£2.12
+£0.11
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£573.36(8.0%)-£21.69
Total Dividends£16,750.15
+£29.92
Total Interest£15.02
+£0.11
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£306.58(4.3%)-£0.39
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

I had a £29 dividend from RIO:Rio Tinto minus AJ Bell fees, value went up more than the ISA, and potential profits increased by £366.


Keeping pace with the injection line but not getting close enough for my liking.


A big jump, but only enough to touch the injection line.


JLP:Jubilee Metals announced great production results from South Africa but there's still a seller keeping the price down. The big news will be copper production in Zambia, which should be due soon. Even with a big seller, that could send the price significantly higher. I wish it would, as I really want to sell the SIPP shares and put them into magic formula shares while prices are still depressed.

Meanwhile there's a bit more optimism at OPTI:Optibiotix, so could we get a gradual and sustained recovery back to the 40p level? I think that's where we should be right now, and it would put me almost back on the injection line.

Week 505 Review - A slight recovery from last week's crash.

Some recovery after last week's disaster, but only clawed back about 25% of the losses. The deficit between cost and value improved by £2,549 to £135,624 and deficit between injection amount and value narrowed to £62,739. Total portfolio value increased to £108,173.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dropped 19% and I have no clue why. It coincided with Croda launching the new lysate. Maybe people thought that was going to come with news on sales. It caused my one profitable ISA share to go back into loss.

IPX:Impax Asset Management dropped another 18% to go 72% down. All this from losing one contact with St James's Place seems well over-done. I'd be buying more with only JLP:Jubilee Metals gets into profit.

PAGE:Pagegroup plummeted 15% and are now 53% down but I'm confident they will recover in a few years, which is well within my timeline for holding.

GSK:GSK dropped 9% to go 22% down, just as I thought they were recovering.

FDM:FDM Group dropped another 6% to go 32% down.

FOUR:4imprint also dropped 6% to go 43% down.

PSN:Persimmon dropped 5% to go 24% down.

Although these were frustrating losses, and probably still aftershocks from last week, there were lots of big gains to compensate.

AJB:AJ Bell, ATYM:Atalaya Mining, GAW:Games Workshop, IHP:Integrafin and SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy all went up 5%.

CAPD:Capital and PBX:Probiotix Health both went up 7%.

IGG:IG Group went up 8% and are 20% up.

ARBB:Arbuthnot Banking climbed 10% and are only 13% down.

III:3i Group went up 10% and are 141% up.

AFC:AFC Energy went up 11% but are still 66% down and being heavily shorted.

CWR:Ceres Power are also being heavily shorted but recovered 14% this week, but are still 76% down.

Share of the week is PAF:Pan African Resources which went up 22% as gold soared to a new record. They are now 65% up and one of my best performing shares.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 37 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£123.66+£11.64
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£41,835.60(-63.4%)+£247.33
Potential profits£0-£283.99
Yr 10 Dividends£138.34+£11.64
Yr 10 Interest£1.06            +£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£46.51(0.7%)+£0.11
Total Dividends£12,446.29+£11.64
Total Interest£7.86+£0
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£253.30(3.6%)-£0.40
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

Not much happened, but I did get an £11 dividend from WHR:Warehouse REIT, which will be my last one before they are bought out and I have to decide whether to extract the £1,000 or transfer it to my ISA. I should really extract the cash to pay for my holiday as it was never meant to be in there for long.

Value only increased by £247 and potential profit was wiped out after SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutix plummeted.


Pretty flat.


Still below the trend line


The SIPP looks like this after week 489 overall and week 21 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£129.31
-£209.13
Portfolio cost£129,193.42
+£239.20
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£66,085.35(-48.8%)+£2,302.44
Potential profits£4,602.97
+£1,350.84
Yr 10 Dividends£603.58
+£30.07
Yr 10 Interest£2.01
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£595.05(8.3%)-£23.24
Total Dividends£16,720.23
+£30.07
Total Interest£14.91
+£0
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£306.97(4.3%)-£0.36
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%+0%

Much better looking than the ISA. I had a £19 dividend from ALU:Alumasc Group and £10 from GSK:GSK. I also did my monthly investment in BHP:BHP Group and bought 14 shares at 1697.8887p costing £239.20. That takes my holding to 51 shares at a weighted average of 1899.2728p costing £974.63 which are down 9%, so I'll buy for one more month to take me over £1,000.

Value soared £2,302 and potential profits recovered from last week's losses to go up by £1,350.


Still well below where we were a few weeks ago.


Still well below the trend line.


Nothing more to add as I'm a week late writing this one up.

Saturday, 5 April 2025

Week 504 Review - Carnage as Trump triggers stock market meltdown.

What an utterly catastrophic week. Given OPTI:Optibiotix only lost 1p which is around £2,000, the fact that the deficit between cost and value widened by £11,982 shows how dreadful things were across the rest of the portfolio. The deficit is now £138,174 and deficit between injection amount and value is £65,330. Total portfolio value dropped to £105,131 despite a £2,500 injection.

There's no point trying to write any reason for most of the declines so I'll just list them. Suffice to say there is no Share of the Week as everything was shit.

JLP:Jubilee Metals was the biggest faller, losing 24% after predictably uninspiring results and despite good news on the waste dump project at the end of the week. Needless to say I bought some more.

IPX:Impax Asset Management dropped 20%.

ATYM:Atalaya Mining dropped 17%.

POLR:Polar Capital dropped 16%.

ASHM:Ashmore Group and FOUR:4imprint dropped 15%.

CWR:Ceres Power dropped 14%.

BHP:BHP Group dropped 13%.

CAML:Central Asia Metals, IHP:Integrafin and PAGE:Pagegroup dropped 12%.

ALPH:Alpha Group and PAF:Pan African Resources dropped 11% so even gold miners weren't spared.

RIO:Rio Tinto dropped 10%.

AJB:AJ Bell, APAX:Apax Global Alpha and FDM:FDM Group dropped 8%.

GAW:Games Workshop and WHR:Warehouse REIT dropped 7%.

BPM:BP Marsh & Partners and OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 6%.

CORE:Solidcore Resources, GSK:GSK and III:3i Group dropped 5%.

What a shit show!

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 36 of year 10.

Weekly Change
Cash£112.02+£63.93
Portfolio cost£114,352.47+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£41,588.27(-63.6%)-£5,056.25
Potential profits£283.99+£0
Yr 10 Dividends£126.70+£17.47
Yr 10 Interest£1.06            +£0.21
Yr 10 Profit from sales£327.55+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£46.40(0.7%)+£0.39
Total Dividends£12,434.65+£17.47
Total Interest£7.86+£0.21
Total Profit from sales£17,602.85+£0
Average monthly cash profit£253.70(3.6%)-£0.39
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance35%+0%

I got a £17 dividend from ASHM:Ashmore Group which means I've had 14% return from them in dividends now. Shame they are down 53%. Cash went up a bit too, as I added £50 to my ISA before the end of the tax year to ensure fees are covered for next year. SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutix didn't change price so potential profits remain the same. That was the highlight of the whole week.




Too depressed for any chart commentary this week.

The SIPP looks like this after week 488 overall and week 20 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£338.44
+£68.23
Portfolio cost£128,954.22
+£2,697.17
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£63,543.71(-50.7%)-£6,926.50
Potential profits£3,252.13
-£937.04
Yr 10 Dividends£573.51
+£31.35
Yr 10 Interest£2.01
+£0.71
Yr 10 Profit from sales£2,375.87
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£618.29(8.7%)-£29.03
Total Dividends£16,690.16
+£31.35
Total Interest£14.91
+£0.71
Total Profit from sales£19,383.81
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£307.33(4.3%)-£0.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)
Compound performance40%-2%

My £2,200 pension transfer came through and I also added £300 to go with recent tax relief and dividends. I got £31 dividend from APAX:Apax Global Alpha which means I've had 17% return from these but they are down 42%. Potential profits were hammered by £931 across the board and the drop in portfolio value was much worse than the ISA.

I bought 17,618 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals after the large waste dump news at 2.9799p costing £530 taking my SIPP holding to 269,278, all of which will be sold as soon as they stop being rubbish.

I carried out my plan with the pension transfer and bought 23 shares in RIO:Rio Tinto at 4566.5p costing £1,067.50 and I also bought 352 shares in IHP:Integrafin at 307.474p costing £1,099.67. Both plummeted on Thursday and Friday so I shouldn't have bothered.




Well, that's a week I'd like to forget in a hurry. Will there be any recovery next week or will it get even worse?

There's intrigue on 9th April when Boots launch a new formula of their popular No.7 brand. On their website it says the new formula is in collaboration with Manchester University, which is where SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics came from, and Croda are due to launch their new lysate this month. Is it too much to hope for that SBTX is in the new No.7? We'll find out on Wednesday.