Week 524 Review - Best week for a while.

A pretty good week across the whole portfolio, with the deficit between cost and value narrowing by £1,574 to £137,431 and the deficit between injection and value to £61,474. Total portfolio value has increased to £114,508.

The only big faller was ALU:Alumasc Group which dropped 6% for no obvious reason. Results are due in a couple of weeks so it could just be people selling before then in case they disappoint.

YU.:Yu Group went up 5% after a shaky start over the few weeks since I bought them. My holding is only down by 1% now.

CWR:Ceres Power has been very volatile and went up 7% this week, but my holding is still 46% down.

Share of the Week is FDM:FDM Group which went up 12% after a recent crash on underwhelming results. It suggests the drop was over-done but my holding is still down 58%.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 4 of year 11.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£81.08		+£0
Portfolio cost	£115,878.07		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£38,926.99	(-66.4%)	+£544.09
Potential profits	£103.85		+£39.60
Yr 11 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit	-£8.63	(-0.1%)	+£2.88
Total Dividends	£12,488.07		+£0
Total Interest	£8.57		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,560.27		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£243.81	(3.4%)	-£0.47
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Fairly quiet. Portfolio value went up £544 and potential profits by £39 thanks to BOKU:Boku going up 4%. Most holdings were up a small amount and OPTI:Optibiotix was flat.

A few weeks of positive momentum

Going in the right direction, but still below the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 508 overall and week 40 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£212.62		+£62.50
Portfolio cost	£135,768.44		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£75,287.95	(-44.5%)	+£1,030.16
Potential profits	£7,299.76		+£262.56
Yr 10 Dividends	£1,515.52		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£3.96		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£4,261.41		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£605.73	(8.1%)	-£15.53
Total Dividends	£17,622.87		+£0
Total Interest	£16.86		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,269.35		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£318.58	(4.3%)	-£0.63
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Cash went up thanks to a tax rebate, portfolio value up £1,030 and potential profits up £262 greatly helped by CAML:Central Asia Metals going into profit.

Maintaining the gap below the injection line

Above the trend line at last.

OPTI:Optibiotix released two lots of reasonably good news this week and still remained flat, so there remains little hope of any sort of share price recovery until some big Sweetbiotix news hits, and there's still no prospect of that. Meanwhile it's the EGM for JLP:Jubilee Metals on Thursday so we should get the vote for selling South African operations, and there's a vague possibility a yes vote will have a positive effect on the share price.

Week 523 Review - A dreadful week rescued by Optibiotix.

It was a bad week across most of the portfolio, but a good week for OPTI:Optibiotix rescued it and the deficit between cost and value reduced by £1,633 to £139,005 despite me taking £580 profits. The deficit between injection and value narrowed to £63,111 and total portfolio value increased to £112,871.

The biggest faller was BEZ:Beazley which dropped 14% after H1 results, which seemed way over-done considering they were still very profitable. My holding is now 20% down after just a few weeks, but I've re-set my monthly investment to these, as I'm anticipating them slowly moving back up, and I can average my price down over the next few months. My next purchase will be around 20th August so they will be cheap.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy dropped 13% which was likely profit taking after a big rise last week.

TLOU:Tlou Energy dropped 13% but it moves by that amount regularly.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dropped 11% after an underwhelming trading update saying revenue would be below expectations. They still look like becoming profitable by next year, and surely a Croda deal will be announced soon?

FXPO:Ferrexpo dropped 7% and are now 89% down, so if they drop next week I won't have to report it as they will pass the 90% down mark.

IES:Invinity Energy dropped 7% and I suspect will continue to slide until there's evidence of revenue coming in.

TRX:Tissue Regenix is another one that has a recent spike upwards and is now drifting back down, falling another 7% this week.

PSN:Persimmon gave solid H1 results but still slipped 5% and are now 25% down.

FOUR:4imprint crashed last week despite decent H1 results, but bounced back 6% this week. Fortunately my regular investment went through just before the rise, so my holding is only down by 24% which is significantly better than before I started buying a little each month. It is a really good way to buy shares. Unfortunately buying small amounts only really works with the monthly investment process, because the commission is just £1.50. I suppose if I built a decent cash buffer then I could put in multiple monthly purchases. It would mean I'd spend £6 on commission for every £1,000 instead of £5 but would give me the advantage of potentially buying cheaper shares or being able to switch strategy if I decide the company I picked was a mistake.

Share of the Week is OPTI:Optibiotix which went up 15% after announcing a new Slimbiome contract in USA. This is quite a big one and could see the company into profitability even without the Sweetbiotix revenue, if it ever appears. It's a while since we got a decent rise in OPTI though, and it nullified all the big drops everywhere else.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 3 of year 11.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£81.08		-£4.22
Portfolio cost	£115,878.07		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£38,382.90	(-66.9%)	+£1,016.53
Potential profits	£64.25		-£39.60
Yr 11 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit	-£11.51	(-0.2%)	-£11.51
Total Dividends	£12,488.07		+£0
Total Interest	£8.57		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,560.27		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£244.28	(3.4%)	-£0.50
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Not much happened. Monthly fees dropped cash by £4 and BOKU:Boku dropped 4% and knocked £39 off potential profits. OPTI:Optibiotix helped portfolio value go up by £1,016.

I've dropped the compound performance stat from the table above when I realised that it's just showing long term average monthly cash profit multiplied by the number of years I've been doing it, which is a waste of time.

Still grim

Still below the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 507 overall and week 39 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£150.12		-£457.48
Portfolio cost	£135,768.44		+£1,043.72
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£74,257.79	(-45.3%)	+£616.84
Potential profits	£7,037.20		-£733.09
Yr 10 Dividends	£1,515.52		+£9.35
Yr 10 Interest	£3.96		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£4,261.41		+£580.29
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£621.26	(8.4%)	+£50.51
Total Dividends	£17,622.87		+£9.35
Total Interest	£16.86		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,269.35		+£580.29
Average monthly cash profit	£319.21	(4.3%)	+£4.39
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Lots happened here.

First there was my regular monthly investment into FOUR:4imprint where I bought 7 shares at 3199.1185p costing £226.56. They ended the week at 3365p so it was a rare well-timed purchase.

I had some dividend money and the left overs from the monthly savings, so I also bought 92 shares in CAML:Central Asia Metals at 157.4727p costing £149.87. That's less than I would normally spend, but the £5 commission at AJ Bell makes smaller purchases a little more bearable than on HL where I pay £11.95.

I decided to sell BHP:BHP Group because the issue with the litigation from the burst dam years ago is still hanging around. It stopped my buying for years, and the fact it still hasn't gone away is too much of a worry, so I sold my 63 shares for 2004.452p and made £52.06 (4.3%) profit, or 5% if you include the £9 dividend. I went back to my magic formula and selected CKM:Clarkson, which is ranked number 11 and also ranks in the top 30 every time if I remove one of each of my four measures and re-rank. I bought 33 shares at 3574.104p costing £1,190.35. They dropped 3% since I bought them and are 4% down when you include spread and commission.

Next I decided to top-slice a little profit from PAF:Pan African Resources, as it was up by 102% and I could do so and still have over 10,000 shares. I sold 1,800 shares at 60.7476p making £528.22 (93.4%) profit. It was a shame I sold on a mini-dip, as it's now back at 102% up. I selected another magic formula share and bought 320 shares in FSV:Fidelity Special Values at 380.6p costing £1,235.96. They went up by 0% but are still 2% down on spread and commission.

The end result was the portfolio cost going up by £1,043, and value only going up £616 due to removing £580 profit. Potential profits dropped by £733 altogether so I lost another £253 on top of what I banked.

Year 10 performance is looking great at 8.4%, but long term performance only increased by 0.1% to 4.3% which is half of my original target 10%.

I also got a £9 dividend from GAW:Games Workshop.

Remarkable how I'm maintaining such an even gap beneath the injection line.

Just above the trend line but not enough to make any difference

This one's quite pleasing and suggests my magic formula approach may be bearing fruit. Unfortunately there's all the original stuff spoiling it, and they steadfastly refuse to increase enough for me to sell and switch to magic formula.

I am now at the stage where there are only 2 more magic formula shares I'm looking at. One is JHD:James Halstead and the other is KNOS:Kainos Group. The problem is they are both in steady share price decline, and I've learned my lesson from FDM:FDM Group that now is not a good time to buy them. The only way I can rescue myself with FDM is to start adding in my monthly investment once the price starts heading upwards. I did that successfully with IGG:IG Group and it seems to be happening with FOUR:4imprint too. I'm not catching a falling knife, but averaging down as their price heads up. With that in mind, all new purchases will be increasing my holdings in existing magic formula shares until I refresh the rankings next year.

Thinking more about what I mentioned in the FOUR:4imprint review at the top of the blog, I do quite like the idea of leaving a big lump of cash and setting up monthly investments with it. It means I earn interest on the cash, keep an emergency pot, and spread the risk when I'm buying shares. Next time I sell something I'm going to keep the cash and set up a new monthly investment for £250 and see how that works.

Week 522 Review - Big drops in my largest holdings but SIPP fights back.

An absolute disaster of a week, with big drops in my two largest holdings taking me to a record low. It would have been a lot worse had some SIPP shares not rallied and halved what the losses would have been. The deficit between cost and value widened by £2,531 to £140,639 and the deficit between injection and value widened to £65,326. Total portfolio value dropped to £110,656.

Worst performer was FOUR:4imprint which gave a good update but did its usual "uncertain times due to tariffs" comment and the share price promptly dropped 11% taking my holding to 33% down. The good news is that I'm buying as my monthly investment next week so I'm happy for the price to drop just before that.

JLP:Jubilee Metals dropped 10% after a production update from Zambia. The results weren't bad, but some big private investors have given up waiting and sold out. Hopefully now they're gone we'll get a bit of a break, as I piled a lot of money into these and the drop has been a disaster for my portfolio value.

OPTI:Optibiotix is by far my biggest holding and dropped 9% after a heated AGM where disgruntled shareholders are trying to get the board replaced. Thankfully they failed, although they had over 30% of the vote. They wouldn't be moaning if the share price wasn't so low, but surely their own actions are now contributing the the share price falling? Nobody would touch OPTI with a bargepole at the moment. Only big contracts and revenues can save us.

TRX:Tissue Regenix zoomed up a few weeks ago and is now zooming down again, dropping another 9% this week.

TLOU:Tlou Energy had its usual random big move, dropping 8% this week.

IPX:Impax Asset Management has been on a recovery run recently, but dropped 5% this week to take my holding 59% down. I should really buy some more.

FXPO:Ferrexpo zoomed up 24%, possibly because of Ukraine peace talks, but it will be short lived as I doubt peace is coming any time soon, and even if it did, the Ukrainian government are out to get FXPO anyway, withholding VAT relief.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy went up a massive 67% after agreeing contracts for their battery storage project, but they don't deserve Share of the Week as they are still a basket case, but mine are only down 62% now.

FDM:FDM Group climbed 5% proving that last weeks drop was over-done, but my holding is still 62% down.

PAGE:Pagegroup went up 5% too, but are still 47% down.

CAML:Central Asia Metals climbed 6% which is great news as they are one of my biggest holdings, and the rise helped offset the other big drops.

Share of the Week is PAF:Pan African Resources, which climbed 12% to take my holding 102% up, and it's one of my bigger holdings so really helped reduce this week's woes.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 2 of year 11.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£85.30		-£483.75
Portfolio cost	£115,878.07		+£500.00
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£37,366.37	(-67.8%)	-£2,563.12
Potential profits	£103.85		-£14.85
Yr 11 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Total Dividends	£12,488.07		+£0
Total Interest	£8.57		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,560.27		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£244.78	(3.4%)	-£0.50
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	34%		+0%

Cash dropped as I bought my 5,000 shares in the AFC:AFC Energy retail offer at 10p. Shame they were worth 9.5p as soon as I bought them.

Huge drop in portfolio value and small drop in potential profits as BOKU:Boku dropped 1%.

Nasty

Woeful

Dire

The SIPP looks like this after week 506 overall and week 38 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£607.60		+£183.90
Portfolio cost	£134,724.72		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£72,597.23	(-46.1%)	+£31.59
Potential profits	£7,770.29		+£832.95
Yr 10 Dividends	£1,496.87		+£200.56
Yr 10 Interest	£3.96		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£3,681.12		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£570.75	(7.7%)	+£6.11
Total Dividends	£17,613.52		+£200.56
Total Interest	£16.86		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,689.06		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£314.82	(4.2%)	+£0.95
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	41%		+0

A positive week despite the big drops goes to show the advantage of having magic formula companies in this portfolio. Potential profits soared by £832, most of which was PAF:Pan African Resources and also some loss-making companies moving into profit. Another 5p increase in CAML:Central Asia Metals will see them go into profit, and every 5p increase from there is worth £300.

I had a healthy £200 in dividends made up of £36 from N91:Ninety One and £164 from POLR:Polar Capital.

Not bad.

A fraction above the trend line, but not enough to start moving it.

I'd be happy if this chart keeps going like this.

Not much to look forward to next week. I'm due one dividend, and then it's just a case of whether OPTI:Optibiotix is going to drop any further and if JLP:Jubilee Metals circulate details of selling the South Africa operation, as that could be the catalyst for some interesting purchases in Zambia.

Week 521 Review - Dreadful week wiping out all recent gains.

A pretty dreadful week, especially for the SIPP which had a torrid time. The deficit between cost and value widened by £2,584 and wiped out the gains from the last few weeks. It now stands at £138,107 which I'm pretty sure is a record. The deficit between injection and value increased to £62,975 and total portfolio value dropped to £112,987.

The biggest faller was FDM:FDM Group which plummeted 40% after pretty dreadful results. I'm confident that the company is robust enough to weather the downturn, but the share price has been dropping continuously for some time now. This is a prime example of not buying a magic formula share unless it has positive share price momentum. I do think the price has dropped too far though, so may attempt to average down, but only once there's positive momentum.

IES:Invinity Energy dropped 13%. I'm not sure why, but if it drops another 2% it will be 90% down and at least I won't have to report on it any more.

PBX:Probiotix Health dropped 11% and will no doubt continue to slip until more news comes out.

PAGE:Pagegroup may have been hit by the recruitment malaise after FDM results, as they dropped 9% after a recent recovery.

TRX:Tissue Regenix went down 8% so I should have known the recent upwards spike was going to be short lived.

AFC:AFC Energy dropped 7% and are now below the 10p retail offer price, but I'm keeping my order in as it is pretty close and I don't have commission to pay.

UKW:Greencoat UK Wind dropped 7% and lost all recent momentum.

IHP:Integrafin soared on results the other week but dropped 6% this week possibly due to profit taking. I'm now only 2% up on these.

IPX:Impax Asset Management fell 5% after a recent rally and are 57% down.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy went up 6% for no obvious reason, but are still 78% down.

ARBB:Arbuthnot Banking went up 9% after reports suggesting they are undervalued. My holding is only 7% down now. I'll still be selling them if they get into profit, as they have fallen out of my magic formula top 50.

TLOU:Tlou Energy went up 9% bit it appears to be the usual volatile swings for no reason.

Share of the week is CWR:Ceres Power which went up 18% after announcing Doosan have started mass production of their fuel cells. My holding is still 47% down but I feel a little more hope now.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 1 of year 11.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£569.05		-£4.06
Portfolio cost	£115,378.07		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£39,429.49	(-65.8%)	-£672.42
Potential profits	£118.70		+£19.80
Yr 11 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 11 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Total Dividends	£12,488.07		+£0
Total Interest	£8.57		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,560.27		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£245.28	(3.4%)	-£0.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	34%		+0%

Cash only went down because I balanced what's actually in the account, so it's got £4 out over the months. Price drops wasn't as bad as the SIPP partly due to the big rise in CWR:Ceres Power and TLOU:Tlou Energy, and BOKU:Boku continued to edge upwards adding £19 to potential profits.

Pretty flat

Below the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 505 overall and week 37 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£423.70		+£294.05
Portfolio cost	£134,724.72		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£72,565.64	(-46.1%)	-£1,911.66
Potential profits	£6,937.34		-£223.87
Yr 10 Dividends	£1,296.31		+£44.05
Yr 10 Interest	£3.96		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£3,681.12		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£564.64	(7.6%)	-£10.38
Total Dividends	£17,412.96		+£44.05
Total Interest	£16.86		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,689.06		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£313.87	(4.2%)	-£0.24
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	41%		+0

I added my £250 monthly savings and got £4 dividend from ATYM:Atalya Mining and £39 from TRY:PR Property Investment. Massive drop in value as virtually everything fell, and PBX:Probiotix Health and JLP:Jubilee Metals made up a big chunk of the losses.

Potential profits also lost £223, with IHP:Integrafin contributing most of that, but several shares that were in profit dropped back to loss this week.

Proper dip

I knew we wouldn't stay above the trend line for long. Now right back on it.

I thought maybe things had turned around, but last week was horrible. Results were pretty poor for a few of my magic formula shares, and OPTI:Optibiotix stayed flat despite a positive trading update on Monday. I think most investors have got wise to the likelihood that nothing is going to happen for years yet, and are waiting for evidence that someone is using Sweetbiotix. The most exciting thing next week is getting my POLR:Polar Capital dividend, which should be around £225 so I might just buy something with it, as I should also get around £36 from N91:Ninety One and there's a bit of cash in the account too. I won't be adding any more cash after stumping up £500 for the AFC:AFC Energy retail offer.