Sunday, 8 February 2026

Week 548 Review

A week that saw some massive drops in value for some of my holdings, and big drops across 16 companies, against just 3 with a decent rise. The result was a widening of the deficit between cost and value of £2,780 to £128,418 and an increase in the deficit between injection and value to £42,968. Total portfolio value reduced to £139,800.

Worst performer was PBX:Probiotix Health which gave up all the recent gains after someone sold a massive chunk of shares. The price dropped 19% and was responsible for most of the losses given the size of my holding.

SCT:Softcat fell victim to scares over AI impacting tech companies and dropped 18% so my holding that was in profit recently is now 27% down. I would average down, but this has fallen out of my top 50 magic formula ranking so I will be selling if they ever get back into profit.

KNOS:Kainos Group fell 16% for the same reasons as SCT. My holding is now down by 16% after being profitable 2 weeks ago. This is still 24th in my magic formula ranking so I may add it to my monthly savings while the price is low, but not until it starts heading back up again.

W7L:Warpaint London was a new purchase this week after it entered my top 30 magic formula ranking. I was excited because a trading update was anticipated, but it never came. The share price dropped 13% in the few days I have owned it. All I can hope is the trading update comes next week and is better than expected, else this could have been a big mistake.

ATYM:Atalya Mining dropped 11% after a major shareholder dumped a large number of shares in a placing, so I'm now 10% down on the ones I bought last week at what I thought was a discount and 4% down on what was a profitable share.

TLOU:Tlou Energy dropped another 11% and I fear are heading towards zero.

AMRQ:Amaroq were hammered 10% possibly due to the gold price drop, but my other gold miners didn't do anywhere near as bad, so not sure what's going on with these.

AFC:AFC Energy are now sliding relentlessly and fell 7% for the 2nd week in a row.

AMP:Ampeak Energy dropped 7% for no particular reason.

FNX:Fonix is another new magic formula share that dropped 6% in the the few days since I bought them. No obvious reason for the fall unless it's part of the tech sell-off.

FSG:Foresight Group Holdings is yet another new magic formula share that also dropped 6% for no reason.

IES:Invinity Energy fell 6% and is determined that my recent purchase isn't  going to get into profit, taking a downturn just before moving into the black on several occasions now.

IPX:Impax Asset Management have been recovering lately but fell 6% this week.

N91:Ninety One has been doing really well recently, but a few institutions have been taking profits and it fell 6% this week.

CAML:Central Asia Metals fell 5% which was a surprise as I thought the copper price had rebounded.

FOUR:4imprint had gone into profit but a big fall last week and another 5% drop this week has seen them slip to a 6% loss. I'll be buying more in my monthly investment next week.

So 16 companies fell by 5% or more, including 3 I only bought this week. Not good!

In the very limited good news, POLR:Polar Capital climbed 5% which was a surprise given it is heavily invested in tech firms which all got hammered.

YU.:Yu Group climbed another 6% and has been making steady progress, and is now 14% in profit.

Share of the Week is ASHM:Ashmore Group which also climbed 6% but wins the prize because I've had it for years at a big loss and it is now only 9% down. It is in my dealing account and as soon as it gets profitable I'll be selling to help pay for my holiday, so I'm more happy than usual that it's going up. If you include dividends it's 10% up.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 28 of year 11.

Weekly Change
Cash£87.73    -£3.71
Portfolio cost£116,875.69+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£45,486.84(-61.1%)-£208.10
Potential profits£1,083.75-£77.61
Yr 11 Dividends£69.36
+£0
Yr 11 Interest£0.80            +£0.04
Yr 11 Profit from sales£527.06+£0
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit£84.55(1.2%)-£3.72
Total Dividends£12,557.43+£0
Total Interest£9.37    +£0.04
Total Profit from sales£18,087.33+£0
Average monthly cash profit£237.52(3.3%)-£0.46
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

Cash went down due to monthly fees minus the 4p interest I earned. The ISA did pretty well doe to the small rises in JLP:Jubilee Metals and OPTI:Optibiotix, but that wasn't enough to completely cancel the big drop in PBX:Probiotix Health. Value only dropped by £208 and potential profits by £77 caused by the drop in AMRQ:Amaroq.


It feels more like a flattening than a drop - maybe even a pause for breath?


Still well above the trend line


The SIPP looks like this after week 532 overall and week 12 of year 11.




Weekly Change
Cash£2,432.39
+£739.88
Portfolio cost£148,823.35
+£1,064.01
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£91,793.75(-38.3%)-£2,571.94
Potential profits£14,086.40
-£1,030.04
Yr 11 Dividends£494.18
+£0
Yr 11 Interest£6.07
+£0
Yr 11 Profit from sales£4,162.12
+£1,626.53
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit£1,663.01(20.9%)+£483.01
Total Dividends£18,714.38
+£0
Total Interest£26.77
+£0
Total Profit from sales£28,828.63
+£1,626.53
Average monthly cash profit£373.80(4.7%)+£12.43    

A lot happened here because I re-generated my magic formula spreadsheet, and quite a few things dropped off, so I sold them to re-invest in top 30 ranking companies, not that it did me much good! I made £1,626 profit from my sales and re-invested £1,064 of that, holding the rest as cash to give me more monthly investment opportunities. Potential profits only dropped £1,030 despite cashing in, so in effect they went up about £600. Long term performance increased to 4.7% and year 11 is looking very healthy at 20%, but we're only on week 12 so that will drop to 4.8% if I don't sell anything else this year. It will drop even further when TRX:Tissue Regenix goes bust.

My first sale was RNWH:Renew Holdings which has fallen to 75th in my magic formula rankings. I sold my 157 shares at 931.88p making £161.11 (12.3%) profit. I bought 186 shares in FNX:Fonix at 175p costing £1,154.48. They are 2nd in my magic formula ranking so it was rather depressing when they fell 6% straight away. They provide mobile payment services, so I can see why they are growing, but I don't see why the tech sell-off affected them.

My next sale was FSV:Fidelity Special Values which had fallen to 84th in my magic formula ranking. I sold my 320 shares at 435.7285p making £149.42 (12%) profit. I used the proceeds to buy 502 shares in W7L:Warpaint London at 228.75p costing £1,157.28. I sat in horror as they slumped 13%. They produce make-up and have a popular brand, so I really hope they turn around after the trading update else I've bought a turkey. They are 5th in my magic formula ranking so I hoped for much better.

Next I sold ALU:Alumasc Group, which is actually only 31st in my ranking so I should have kept them, but their interim results were pretty weak so I was certain they were about to drop out of my top 50 and wanted to sell them while still in profit. I sold my 562 shares at 260.22p making £343.11 (30.6%) profit. I used the proceeds to buy 280 shares in FSG:Foresight Group Holdings at 428.49p costing £1,208.72. They are 3rd in my magic formula rankings and are an investment company specialising in things like green energy. However, they dropped 6% straight away.

Next the takeover of BEZ:Beazley was agreed, and although I sold for about £100 less than if I'd waited, I figured it was worth it to take the profits now. I sold my 170 shares at 1260.801p making £546.00 (34.1%) profit. I used the proceeds to buy 82 shares in MSI:MS International, which is a defense contractor and 16th in my magic formula ranking. I paid 1330p a share costing £1,095.60. They went up 1% by the end of the week so are almost into profit. By this time I had all the profits from the other sales to spend, so foolishly bought 20,512 shares in JLP:Jubilee Metals at 4.875p costing £1,004.96. Needless to say, as with every time I buy JLP trying to make a quick profit, the shares dropped by the end of the week and are only 4.6p to sell.

My final sale was 30 of my shares in RIO:Rio Tinto. I had bought a load due to the prospect of a merger with GLEN:Glencore, but that fell through. I decided to reduce my holding and sold them at 6868.9071p making £426.90 (26.1%) profit. I used half of the proceeds to increase my stake in GAW:Games Workshop due to the recent sharp drop in share price. I bought 7 shares at 16862p costing £1,195.19. I also bought 918 shares in BEG:Begbies Trainor Group at 119.75p costing £1,108.26. They changed their name the day after to BTG:BTG Consulting and the share price ended up just down by the spread.

So it was definitely a busy week!


We stayed above the orange line for just one week, which is very sad.


That's a dreadful dip, but I have cashed in a lot of profits and we're still well above the trend line.


This is my favourite chart. To get long term performance up from just above £300 a month to approaching £400 a month is great. If only the portfolio value wasn't at a massive loss. The encouraging thought is that this is based on my magic formula strategy, which seems to be working, so if my JLP:Jubilee Metals and OPTI:Optibiotix holdings can reverse their declines, the magic formula foundations are pretty strong, and the sooner I can ditch my SIPP holdings in JLP and OPTI the better (aside from my foolish JLP purchase this week which broke all my rules and was bonkers!)

This week sees my latest monthly investment, and I have three lots of £250 set up. I'm continuing to buy III:3i Group as my holding is up 5% and they are slowly going up, I'm returning to buy FOUR:4imprint again as they have dropped to a 6% loss despite recent positive trading, and I'm starting a new magic formula share ESCT:The European Smaller Companies Trust, which are ranked 26th.

I also really want to invest in GCP:GCP Infrastructure Investments and THX:Thor Explorations so intend to sell another 32 RIO:Rio Tinto shares, as that will still leave me with 70 and make it one of my largest holdings, but get me another two of my new top 30 ranking shares. That will leave 5 more that I can potentially invest in, plus 4 that I can't invest in as they are oil or palm oil. I wonder if that means I should extend my top 30 to 34 so I maintain a list of 30 investable companies, but keep the top 50 cut-off for when to sell. Sounds like a good plan. I do still have a lot of companies to update in my magic formula, but they are the ones nearer the bottom of the ranking last time so it's unlikely they will get into the top 50 unless they've had a big turn-around.