Sunday, 4 December 2016

Week 69 Review

I've skipped weeks 67 and 68 as I don't have the snapshots from while I was on holiday. If I get hold of the data I'll fill in the gaps on the graphs, but will do a bumper review today.

It's been a month since I last checked for big risers and fallers, so not surprisingly there are lots. Worst performer of the month was TLOU:Tlou Energy, dropping 29% but still in profit. I think the drop is profit taking from short term traders so no real concern.

Of more concern is the 26% drop in CMCL:Caledonia Mining. I bought back into this because gold was on the way up and they had been doing really well. Practically the day I bought them they started to decline. They do pay a quarterly dividend though, so I'll stick with them long term.

ARL:Atlantis Resources did the opposite of what I expected following the commencement of power generation, and dropped 25% so they are now making a loss. As with Tlou, I'm hoping this is just traders profit taking.

CWR:Ceres Power Holdings have declined 22% but I think this is just lack of news. They are likely to drift until they start making a profit.

WRL:Wentworth Resources was one of my first share purchases and was a big mistake. They were about to start delivering gas so I thought it was a perfect time to buy. Looks like the customer is reluctant to pay for the gas! They dropped another 17% this month and are down 40% from when I bought them.

PAF:Pan African Resources dropped 15% which is disappointing, but not long till the huge dividend.

IKA:Ilika fell 14% and I think will continue to drift until they make some money

SLP:Sylvania Platinum is still a disaster in my trading account and fell 11% over the month

Fortunately it wasn't all doom and gloom - there were some double-digit risers too.

IQE:IQE is on a roll and climbed 11%, increasing my excitement in this company.

AFG:Aquatic Food is having another one of it's blips upward as people try to decide if it's a legitimate company or not, climbing 14% this month but still 41% down on my purchase price.

LGEN:Legal & General is doing great things in my pension and climbed a huge 17% over the month, which is amazing for an established FTSE company

CAML:Central Asia Metals is also doing incredibly well, climbing 19% on the rising copper price. This is also my new Star Share making £1,209.50 potential profit which is hammering all the opposition after the declines in CWR:Ceres Power, TLOU:Tlou Energy and KIBO:Kibo Mining.

I never thought I'd see BLUR:Blur Group nearly getting Share of the Week with a 28% climb following a new investor buying up about 13% of the shares. Maybe there's hope for this one yet?

Share of the Week - or I guess in this case Share of the Month goes to CRL:Creightons, which quietly climbed 37% and is now up by 98% overall. If only I'd bought more!!

Here's the combined ISA and shares account performance




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£41,334.88
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£35,558.41(-14%)-£471.76
Potential profits£1,756.45
-£259.10
Yr 2 Dividends£211.79
+£52.49
Yr 2 Profit from sales£2,338.74
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£646.31
-£123.41
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost18.8%
Total Dividends£879.72
+£52.49
Total Profit from sales£6,179.00
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£438.57
-£16.74
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost12.7%

 Not a great performance over the 3 weeks, but could have been worse. Without the inexplicable drop in OPTI:Optibiotix it would have been a lot better, and TLOU:Tlou Energy's big drop hammered the potential profits.

Dividends were healthy, with £24.70 from BDEV:Barratt Developments, £14.84 from LOOK:Lookers, £5.80 from MSLH:Marshalls and £7.15 from TND:Tandem Group. Slightly ironic that these are all some of my worst performing shares, but the dividend flow is constant. This helped limit the reduction in average cash profit which is still well above the 10% target.

Oh the misery - that's just plain dreadful. It has revealed that I'm no longer actively investing new capital or buying and selling anything - partly due to the holiday, but partly as an intentional move to hold my shares for longer. A the moment it doesn't seem to be a very successful tactic, but we shall see what transpires over the next few months

The SIPP looks like this after week 53 - which means I've had it for a year!




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£15,713.08
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£17,811.42(+13.3%)-£381.69
Potential profits£2,972.83
-£391.42
Dividends£413.19
0
Profit from sales£2,349.86
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£221.22
-£13.85
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost16.9%

The big drop in profits was down to ARL:Atlantis Resources and CWR:Ceres Power, with the increase in CAML:Central Asia Metals not enough to off-set it. I'll add new columns for Year 2 performance next week - as nothing really happened in week 1 of year 2 in terms of dividends and sales.

A nicer graph than the one above - as long as that little dip changes direction soon. I've suspended my monthly investment, as following my holiday I need a concerted effort to get my Visa bill under control before the 0% interest runs out in April.

The trading account looks like this after week 19




Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£499.95
+£0
Cash£0.05
0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£390.95(-21.8%)+£0
Potential profits£0
+£0
Dividends£0
0
Profit from sales£0
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£0
+£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost0%

I think this is what you might call a failed experiment! Maybe I should just think of it as temporarily on hold...

Hmm - If I'd waited just a week to buy these shares, at least I'd be breaking even and I might have sold them and moved on. The whole point of the experiment is to identify volatile shares and jump on the small price changes - not buy on a spike and sit on them for 6 months!!

So it looks like things didn't go completely downhill while I was on holiday. Next week is critical for AFPO:African Potash after the resignation of the Nomad. They go on 7th December so presumably the shares will suspend unless a replacement is found. I had such high hopes for these in the early days - it was such a good story, and all the right things seemed to have been done. Unfortunately it appears to have been all hot air and failure to secure meaningful contracts. The shares are down 99% from when I bought them. That's £707.98 cost down to a value of £7.55. It's not worth selling them to recoup that amount, so all I can do is hold on and hope. If they go bust it's going to whack my performance stats really badly, and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money...

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