Saturday, 14 October 2017

Week 114 Review - Optibiotix drags everything down

It was looking like a fairly flat week, but a 2p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix was enough to end up at a loss. The combined portfolios were down by £422 on last week, but would have been up if OPTI:Optibiotix hadn't lost £878. Overall value is now £75,234 with the buffer between cost and value reduced to £4,927.

Worst performer was last week's Share of the Week MTFB:Motif Bio, falling 10% on profit taking after last week's rise. This is still up by 41% and making £412 paper profit in the very small time I've been a holder, so the drop caused by traders doesn't worry me.

The rest of the story was reasonably positive. CAML:Central Asia Metals had a great end to the week and finished 7% up and back at the same price they were before the placing and announcement of the Lynx Resources takeover. When we get an idea of revenues of the new enlarged company I suspect a significant re-rate, but will we still get an amazing dividend?

ARL:Atlantis Resources had a second good week on the bounce, climbing 9% and sentiment is improving, but they are still down by 35% so it's going to take months of strong sentiment to break even.

Although IQE:IQE only climbed 5% in my SIPP, my ISA holding increased by 23% of the original purchase price taking the gains up to 350% and winning Share of the Week. News this weekend that Apple are fitting the 3D sensors into iPads, and that Samsung are also developing 3D facial recognition may give IQE:IQE a boost next week. One of the shorters closed some of their position during the week which caused a huge spike. When the other positions close this will go bonkers.

I've changed the way I display my portfolio on the right hand side of the blog. I figured using red for shares that were 20% or more down, amber for those 15%-20% down, black for those 0%-15% down and green for those in profit was a bit random. Now all shares are in black, but the % up or down from cost price is now red for negative and green for positive. Same for the weekly movement. As well as being easier on the eye and highlighting which are up or down, it's easier to maintain as the colour HTML code is always present.






A continuation of last week's small loss, but still comfortably in the black.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £39.59
+£0
Portfolio cost £44,426.84
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £47,595.91 (+7.1%) -£445.95
Potential profits £8,824.69
+£158.89
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £585.38
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £230.90 (6.2%) -£25.66
Total Dividends £1,179.05
+£0
Total Profit from sales £7,297.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £317.93 (8.6%) -£2.82
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Potential profits were up thanks to RED:RedT Energy and IQE:IQE but losses deepened for OPTI:Optibiotix and JLP:Jubilee Platinum to drag the whole portfolio down. Average profit is down to 8.6% now, so sinking below target 10% but there's nothing I want to sell at the moment. Most of my shares are either in profit but with much further to go, at loss but with the potential for greatness, or at loss and doomed to fester for years. There are certainly no candidates for top-slicing any profit just to get back to my target.




Similar to the overall graph. I'm still happy to be in the black after 2 years in the red.

The SIPP looks like this after week 98



Weekly Change
Cash £44.63
+£0
Portfolio cost £25,218.51
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £27,095.18 (7.4%) +£23.35
Potential profits £3,060.82
-£21.76
Yr 2 Dividends £328.84
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £6,575.33
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £642.27 (30.6%) -£14.28
Total Dividends £708.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £8,925.19
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £421.41 (20.1%) -£4.34
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The portfolio value actually went up thanks to good rises for ARL:Atlantis Resources, CAML:Central Asia Metals, IQE:IQE and LGEN:Legal and General so even the drop in OPTI:Optibiotix wasn't enough to stop that. Potential profits did slip slightly as all the OPTI:Optibiotix losses hit that and all of ARL:Atlantis Resources and most of IQE:IQE gains were reduced loss. I won't have to sell anything for over a year to stay above my 10% target thanks to the vast profits I made selling IQE:IQE on their last upward spike.




I'm still waiting for that happy day when OPTI:Optibiotix release the RNS that finally causes the price to surge. It's going to happen, and when it does this graph is going to look great!

Here's the trading account after week 64



Weekly Change
Cash £79.63
+£0
Portfolio cost £486.05
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £366.13 (-24.7%) +£0
Potential profits £0
+£0
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£22.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.47 (-3.6%) +£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

This is so rubbish. No change at all and I'm thinking the whole experiment is a write-off. I need to have some rules that I don't hold a share in this account if it loses 10% else it's no different than my other accounts. Granted I may lose the £500 quite quickly, but surely the whole point of a trading account is for short term gains. I'm doing it all wrong, but now it's down by 24% I won't sell until it gets up to 10% loss, then employ my new rule.




Once my new rule kicks in, this graph will look very different.

There's not much due to happen next week. A couple of good dividends are arriving the week after but barring unexpected news, next week could be another dull one.

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