Friday, 29 December 2017

Week 125 Review - Fantastic end to 2017

The bleak misery of the run-up to Christmas is out of the way and 2017 ended with a mini-rally. The combined portfolios increased by £2,798 restoring the buffer between cost and value to £3,490 and a total value of £74,900. Every single share in the ISA, Share and SIPP accounts was either static or increased this week. Only the trading account let the side down, and that was due to a disastrous transaction, more of which below.

Half of the rise this week was thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix climbing 3p today. The rise reduced my losses from £3,237 to £1,841 so it's still my Nemesis Share but maybe this time the rise will be sustained and 2018 could be the year these wake up.

CAML:Central Asia Metals achieved a further record high this week, and ended 5% up which gives potential profit of £3,545 (77%), and with copper, zinc and lead prices all climbing, things are looking good here.

BLU:Blue Star Capital was a disappointing purchase last week but made up some of the losses, climbing 6% but still 26% down. I'm glad I dipped a toe in this one as I'm getting more interested. Less so in Blue Star itself (their website is utterly frightful), but more so in their stake in Satoshipay. I'm not ready to buy more just yet, but it's looking tempting.

TRX:Tissue Regenix has been dreadful for many months, but something is stirring. The price went up another 7% today and I'm wondering if people are getting wind that the company recently taken over is going to speed the journey to profitability. That's what I'm hoping but my shares are still 54% down.

KIBO:Kibo Mining climbed 15% last week and another 10% this week. I think it's in anticipation of the Power Purchase Agreement which should be imminent. After so many delays it would be great to tick off this next step in the journey. My holding is only 18% down now so things are looking up.

TLOU:Tlou Energy had a great week, climbing 12%. I think this is in anticipation of them winning the tender for a new power station. These are 38% up now, and if all goes to plan have the potential to absolutely soar.

Share of the Week is MTFB:Motif Bio which climbed 16% and is now 36% up. I think it was under shorting attack following the rapid rise on announcement of successful Phase III trials. Those appear to be closing now, so fingers crossed we'll see a slow gradual growth.




The descent is reversed!

Here's the ISA and share accounts performance



Weekly Change
Cash £36.20
+£0
Portfolio cost £44,981.97
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £46.024.48 (2.3%) +£1,546.93
Potential profits £8,148.87
+£406.41
Yr 3 Dividends £34.11
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,131.66
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £228.17 (6.1%) -£11.41
Total Dividends £1,213.16
+£0
Total Profit from sales £7,844.16
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £309.82 (8.3%) -£2.49
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Only a small improvement in potential profits thanks to MTFB:Motif Bio and TLOU:Tlou Energy and a teensy bit from IQE:IQE which had the decency to creep up about a penny. Most of the improvement in value was decreasing losses, particularly OPTI:Optibiotix, KIBO:Kibo Mining and some from JLP:Jubilee Metals.




The green line has bounced off the red!

The SIPP looks like this after week 109



Weekly Change
Cash £38.66
+£0
Portfolio cost £26,007.03
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £28,517.24 (9.7%) +£1,089.24
Potential profits £4,213.09
+£272.71
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £-9.23 (-0.4%) +£2.31
Total Dividends £916.10
+£0
Total Profit from sales £8,925.19
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £384.95 (17.8%) -£3.56
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Huge increase in value with only £272 coming from increased profits, mainly CAML:Central Asia Metals and great chunks of losses for OPTI:Optibiotix and TRX:Tissue Regenix were recovered.




When OPTI:Optibiotix does get to a sensible price, this graph will look amazing!

Here's the effect of this week's carnage on the trading portfolio after week 75



Weekly Change
Cash £0.03
-£79.60
Portfolio cost £345.65
-£140.40
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £283.69 (-17.9%) +£23.20
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 2 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 2 Profit -£218.50
-£218.50
Year 2 Performance -£41.17 (-142.9%) -£41.17
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£241.35
-£218.50
Average monthly cash profit -£13.88 (-48.2%) -£12.61
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

So I kind of got bored and frustrated and totally gave up on REDS:RedstoneConnect in order to use this as a proper trading account. I sold them for 100p after buying at 170p making a loss of £218 (44.1%). Absolutely rubbish! The sale obliterated any hope of a reasonable performance, now losing on average £12 a month since I started almost 18 months ago.

The trigger for the sale was watching the LION:Lionsgold share price, which has been dropping like a stone since the share was ramped a few weeks ago. It suddenly dived spectacularly. This was the moment I'd been waiting for! I sold REDS:RedstoneConnect for a huge loss and then added my cash from previous sales and went to buy LION:Lionsgold at this bargain price.

It turned out there was no bargain price. The reason for the drop was that the bid price had been dropped massively but the offer price remained the same, so although it looked like a bargain was available it wasn't. A cynic might say that the market makers were trying to trigger a load of stop losses to fill an order, but I'm sure they wouldn't be so underhand! I decided something must be going on and that the price had already dropped 30% from the ramping spike, so decided to buy for a quick profit on the next ramp cycle. WRONG!

I bought for 4.515p and I could have bought for 4.11p today.

Never mind - because of my £500 rule, and because I'm not seeding any more cash into this account, I only bought £345 worth. I need these to do well to try and get back to my original £500 and reverse the desperate performance stats.

I think LION:Lionsgold might be onto something, but it's stupidly high risk and I would never invest outside of the trading account. It does help me keep an eye on the story, but I'm counting on this being a very volatile share and hoping that I can take advantage of that rather than being victim of it like I have with my long term holdings.

What all the above does mean is that the trading account is back in the game!




Not a pretty sight, but at least something is happening now - the jury is out as to whether it's anything positive!

One last bit of news - AFG:Aquatic Foods issued an RNS yesterday.

"The Directors of Aquatic Foods Group Plc (AIM: AFG), a leading Chinese marine foods and seafood processor and producer supplying to export and local markets, are disappointed to announce that the Company does not now expect to be in a position to publish its audited full year accounts to 31 December 2016 ("2016 Accounts") or its interim accounts to 30 June 2017 ("2017 Interims") by 29 December 2017.

Given that as of 29 December 2017 trading in the Company's shares will have been suspended for a period of six months, trading in the Company's shares on AIM is expected to be cancelled at 7.00am on 29 December 2017 in accordance with Rule 41 of the AIM Rules for Companies.

I guess it was inevitable. They have successfully walked away with £9.3m raised at the IPO. How can this be allowed to happen? I lost £1,100 on this fiasco but managed to rescue £900 when I finally realised what they were up to and sold my shares. Heaven knows if the remaining shareholders will see anything of their investments. This has been a harsh lesson that although the rewards of investing in AIM companies can be great, there are huge dangers and I was terribly naive!

That's it for 2017 - I got a bit ahead of myself with the round up last week, so here's the final paragraph from that blog edited with the final figures.

So all in all I'm in a far better position than I was 12 months ago. My combined portfolio value was £54,542 then and it's £74,900 now, which is £20,358 more. Although some of that came from top-ups, a lot came from shares increasing in value. My portfolios were in the red by £3,735 whereas this year they're in the black by £3,490, so there is plenty to be happy about (and even more than there was last week!).

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