Saturday, 30 June 2018

Week 151 Review - Mid-week slump partially recovered but still down

Another crappy week with a significant drop in portfolio value. Small drops throughout the portfolio took £1,125 off the value and widened the deficit between cost and value to £9,825 but it had been significantly wider earlier in the week before a late rally. Total portfolio value now stands at £74,504.

Worst performer was TND:Tandem Group who announced difficult trading so far this year. What's really annoying is the 2nd half of the message about increasing Disney franchises got ignored in favour of the bad news, so the share price dropped 10% and is now 43% down.

N4P:N4 Pharma also had a bad week, dropping 7% from profit to a 2% loss.

CAML:Central Asia Metals continued it's dreadful run to the point that I really, really wish I had spare funds to get my holding back up to 10% of portfolio value. Although miserable at the price slip, it does make me quite happy I sold some at 330p and 334p to make £982 profit earlier in the year! If only I'd kept the proceeds to re-invest now.

OPTI:Optibiotix had a bizarre end to the week with about 5 million shares allegedly traded on Friday, but it's clear two of the "sells" were a buy and a sell of the recent options that were taken up. I really don't understand what was going on though, as there's an additional buy late in the day. The good news is that whatever was going on is likely to have buggered up the share price, so now it's out of the way we may get some upward movement.

There were only 2 shares with any meaningful rise. MMX:Minds + Machines has been perking up since an article was published on the LSE bulletin boards by one of the major shareholders of the company recently bought out. Their rationale for remaining a long term holder was very encouraging, and it seems to be bringing more people in as the share price went up 5% but is still 13% down on my purchase price.

Share of the Week was MTFB:Motif Bio which should be shooting up in value after announcing the completion of the NDA submission, but it's more hobbling upwards. The 10% rise this week was very welcome though, and takes the share back into paper profit of 4%.




Very bad - gap widening and no immediate hope of respite.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £600.14
+£0
Portfolio cost £55,460.60
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £46,504.41 (-16.1%) -£658.29
Potential profits £138.29
+£99.27
Yr 3 Dividends £44.15
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £11,984.62
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £1,105.58 (23.9%) -£24.03
Total Dividends £1,223.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £18,697.12
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £567.57 (12.3%) -£3.78
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Potential profits were up thanks to MTFB:Motif Bio getting back into the green. Everything else is making a loss now as SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics slid back into loss. Much of the loss was thanks to the 1p slide in OPTI:Optibiotix, but lots of other shares contributed and nothing seems close to a turn around.




Value is almost the same as it was 12 months ago, despite cost rising by £10,000.

The SIPP looks like this after week 135



Weekly Change
Cash £30.28
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £27,189.70 (-2.5%) -£467.07
Potential profits £1,622.45
-£210.26
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £257.06 (11.1%) -£8.57
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £370.18 (15.9%) -£2.76
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Potential profits clobbered by N4P:N4 Pharma going back to loss and CAML:Central Asia Metals losing a load, and small losses everywhere else dropped the value but not by too much.




Well into the red now. The worst it's been for quite a while. The trend line will start to flatten out now as each week goes by without a rise.

It's too hot to write much more today.

The cutoff date has passed for my TLOU:Tlou Energy open offer, so hopefully I will find out soon if I managed to get more than I was allocated.

Aside from that I just need a good week to give a break from this relentless slide. As an example of how miserable I feel, I finished paying off a 12 month loan this week. I got £2,250 to buy OPTI:Optibiotix shares at what I considered the ludicrously cheap price of 66.7p.

Here's what I wrote in my blog on 22nd June 2017. "This will cost me £167 interest over the year. I expect to make that back within a week when the market corrects."

One year later, and the offer price is 67p. Practically identical to this time last year, and the bid price is 64p so I'm still losing money on the investment this loan went to fund, plus having forked out £167 interest I still haven't made back on the investment yet.

Now I know there's a good chance the price will start to rise properly, as the recent contracts are much more valuable, and at some point something will snap. However, when I took out the loan it was on the absolute certain belief that if I didn't buy them then, I'd miss my chance and by now this would be well over £1.

How wrong was I?

And some poxy git smashed my wing mirror on Thursday night. Presumably someone who knew of my distant Belgian ancestry!

There's speculation over whether the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dividend might be cash instead of shares. That would be quite upsetting as I held off buying any when they were really cheap on the understanding I was due a big slice when the dividend was distributed. Someone speculated 18p a share cash dividend, which would be worth £13,700 so is not to be sniffed at, but by then the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics share price would be far too expensive for me to want to buy in. I really hope we're still given shares.

So much for not writing any more because it's too hot!

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