Saturday, 14 July 2018

Week 153 Review - Portfolio reaches new high despite N4 Pharma crash

A pretty good week, with the portfolio hitting a record high value, but offset by the biggest crash of any share I have ever owned. Fortunately OPTI:Optibiotix saved the day and enabled the new high. The gap between cost and value narrowed by £1,172 leaving the deficit at £3,198. The portfolio value surged past the magic £80K and ended the week at £81,133.

The catastrophic collapse was N4P:N4 Pharma which plummeted 61% from a small 2% profit to a thumping great 59% loss. This followed news that early trials with their Viagra replacement Sildenafil has fallen somewhat short of expectations. The RNS stated:

"it is clear from the preliminary PK data that the current formulation has not met the key target endpoints of the trial. To that end, the product formulation will need to be reviewed to assess what changes would be required to make the reformulated drug viable in the context of the Company's patent position."

We now have to wait until late August for the data, then work out what to do before paying for another trial.

This was meant to be the quick-start easy money drug to fund everything else, but now it's hit a brick wall there's no surprise to see the share price plummet.

I didn't sell as their Nuvec drug delivery system could be worth way more than the other drugs added together, but they have moved from a quick profit share to yet another long burner that will damage my paper performance for years.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is really punishing me for trying to get that extra 0.1p when it was flying high at 18p. Why didn't I just sell the things?! It dropped another 7% this week to 13p, possibly due to people selling so they can ride the OPTI:Optibiotix wave. I knew the shares would be traded. I knew it would drop back to these levels. Why was I so bloody greedy?

MTFB:Motif Bio also had a bad week, dropping 5% and helping dull any resolve to buy junior pharma companies in the future.

There was precious little good news this week, but TLOU:Tlou Energy climbed 5% and also let me have my full request for the open offer. That means I'll have another 10,200 shares on Monday increasing my holding by 30%, and they were purchased at a bargain 5.75p so will already be making profit as well as bringing down my weighted average.

OPTI:Optibiotix wins Share of the Week as they can currently do no wrong. A 3p rise this week was just 5% but it means I'm making paper profit of £5,822 and the party's only just started. There seems to be bigger volume, and the serial seller appears to have gone. There are so many big news stories that could break any day that things are really exciting. It's been an almost 3 year wait, but that has done me a favour, as rather than this being another £1,000 share, it's now a £49,000 share with the potential of allowing me to retire significantly earlier than I had thought.




The gap is narrowing, but the low points from 12 months ago are vanishing each week, so the trend line is flattening and could even take a dip. The 6-month trend line would be more spectacular.

Here's the performance of the ISA and share accounts



Weekly Change
Cash £611.52
+£0
Portfolio cost £55,460.60
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £51,542.26 (-7.1%) +£1,279.98
Potential profits £3,795.53
+£1,345.94
Yr 3 Dividends £59.28
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £11,984.62
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £1,061.46 (23%) -£22.11
Total Dividends £1,238.33
+£0
Total Profit from sales £18,697.12
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £560.47 (12.1%) -£3.69
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The rise in paper profit was all thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, with losses elsewhere taking a small amount of that away in terms of portfolio value. I think this could be regarded as a nice, steady week.




Still quite a long way to go and the trend line is pointing in the wrong direction, but the main green line is heading up.

The SIPP looks like this after week 137



Weekly Change
Cash £20.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £27,893.76
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £28,779.48 (3.2%) -£107.25
Potential profits £5,523.98
+£602.96
Yr 3 Dividends £292.57
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £1,619.73
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £240.13 (10.3%) -£7.51
Total Dividends £1,208.67
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £364.45 (15.7%) -£2.68
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The potential profits managed a reasonable increase but were held back by CAML:Central Asia Metals falling yet again. Why have I got no spare cash to top up on these - it's an amazing company and gob-smackingly cheap at this price. The collapse of N4P:N4 Pharma wiped out all the profits and dragged the portfolio down by £107. Thank goodness for OPTI:Optibiotix else it would have been so much worse.




A reasonably flat week despite all the drama.

Unfortunately next week sees the 2nd anniversary of me opening my trading account, so I'll have to report on it. No sign of LION:Lionsgold returning from suspension, so the curse of the trading account will continue for some time yet.

As well as the TLOU:Tlou Energy open offer, there is now an open offer for IKA:Ilika. I've only been allocated 64 shares which will cost me £12.80. That's a bit of a waste of time so I may apply for 500 and increase my holding by a third like I did with TLOU:Tlou Energy. Although this is still very much a research company, they have some strong IP and it's a market that could be massive, so I'm happy to punt another £100, but it's a bit of a gamble.

VRS:Versarien is still riding high so my cunning plan to get back in cheaper isn't working at the moment. Probably a good job, as I need to sell the likes of MMX:Minds + Machines to pay for them, and that's going nowhere fast.

Next week should see TLOU:Tlou Energy stage a bit of a recovery now the open offer is out of the way and the cash is in the bank. Most of my attention will be on OPTI:Optibiotix though, as there were no deals announced this week and it's rare two weeks go by without a new one.

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