Sunday, 27 January 2019

Week 181 Review - Great gains all around

The wider portfolio had a really good week, with encouraging gains in many holdings that have been suffering lately. OPTI:Optibiotix was up 4p too, which contributed £3,200 to the £3,667 rise. This puts the buffer between value and cost at £7,664 and the total portfolio value at £104,967.

Biggest loser was BLU:Blue Star Capital which has been suspended for the last six months as it attempted a reverse takeover of Satoshipay. Unfortunately they couldn't raise enough funds to do the deal so it's been suspended and the shares suffered accordingly, with a 12% fall. These were only a small "toe in the water" purchase, and it's a good job because not only have they failed in this transaction, but Satoshipay are failing to get any major publishers interested in their micro payment system, so this could easily go pop.

CAML:Central Asia Metals tried its best to spoil the party this week, with a 6% fall being quite expensive and preventing paper profits being anywhere near what they could have been. I wish the China standoff would sort itself out so base metal prices can start rising again, but there's no sign of that. I am about to get £1,000 pension transfer though, so will be taking advantage of the low price to top up.

MMX:Minds + Machines dropped 6% and keep slipping, and I guess will continue until they release some financial results from the new enlarged company. I'm reasonably confident that these results will be good and the price will soar, but not confident enough to invest any more money in them.

Those were the big losers. There were far more big risers.

OPTI:Optibiotix recovered the 4p they lost last week to climb 6% and go back to 90p. News has to be close now, and I have a feeling the next one could be mega, as there are so many coals in the fire. Could it be the retail contract? Could it be a Sweetbiotix deal? Could it be the Tata announcement? Will there be a trading statement? So much excitement!

IQE:IQE are marching upwards, and climbed another 7% this week. It's possible the shorters are gradually closing their positions. If I was feeling brave I'd buy some, but I think CAML:Central Asia Metals is a better bet at the moment.

TAP:Taptica are slowly recovering from their recent unjustified hammering. This week they are up 7% but are still 47% down overall.

N4P:N4 Pharma are also attracting more interest now their Nuvec product is being developed. An 8% climb this week leaves them only 44% down, which is 20% better than after the initial crash when the Viagra replacement didn't work.

PAF:Pan African Resources issued a superb trading statement and I was surprised they only climbed 11%. This has been a good slow steady climb though, leaving them 31% up and with paper profit of £450.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics have also been improving gradually. My ISA holding climbed by 12% and my SIPP by 14% leaving my ISA down by 19% and my SIPP up by 23%. My target for selling the SIPP holding is 20p, after which I'll sell and hope for a dip. Meanwhile I'll keep the ISA holding until 25p and do the same. The ultimate aim is to increase the number of shares I hold until I get to the stage where I just keep them.

Share of the Week is IKA:Ilika which I think benefited from an article in II which recommended them, along with MTFB:Motif Bio and OPTI:Optibiotix. The other two didn't respond as dramatically as IKA:Ilika, which climbed 20%. Not great news though, as my holding is still down by 42% and needs a lot more good news before I can ditch them.




Back to where we were two weeks ago.




The portfolio seems to have hit a point of resistance at around £7,000 in profit.

Here's the ISA and share portfolios performance



Weekly Change
Cash £42.91
+£0
Portfolio cost £56,971.94
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £60,593.10 (6.4%) +£2,174.89
Potential profits £12,530.34
+£1,992.85
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £147.77 (3.1%) -£6.16
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £494.18 (10.4%) -£2.74
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The increase in profit is all from OPTI:Optibiotix, with MTFB:Motif Bio robbing a bit of that, and around £180 reduction in losses from the other shares. Slow and steady!




Bouncing along just the right side of the line.




Still an upward trend but still only just the right side of £0. Much better picture than the first half of 2018 though.

The SIPP looks like this after week 165



Weekly Change
Cash £122.84
+£0
Portfolio cost £37,825.18
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £42,774.01 (13.1%) +£1,451.82
Potential profits £8,609.27
+£1,220.99
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.04
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit -£15.00 (-0.5%) +£1.88
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.07
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £303.96 (9.6%) -£1.86
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Similar story to the other account, although a much wider contribution to increased profits, and a bigger dent in them from the drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals. Losses were reduced by around £230 which is good news. LLOY:Lloyds is only 4% under now, and if that can get into profit then 6 out of the 11 shares will be in profit, and it's been a while since I could say more than half in the portfolio was in the black. Compare that to the ISA and share accounts where only 2 out of 17 are in profit.

Hopefully I'll be adding another £1,000 next week, but that will increase the cost and lower the average performance rating, already below 10% since the big injection before Christmas. The desire to sell something and get back above 10% is growing, and I'm still targeting SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics to do that. Potential profit is currently £225 which would lift me from 9.6% to 9.8% so it's not enough. 20p would get £487 profit, which would take me to exactly 10%. It would only stay above target for a week though.




Looking mighty fine.




The buffer is £5,000 which is encouraging. The worry is that this will drop if I sell something.

Here's the trading account after week 131



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,415.58 (-39%) +£40.92
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £31.20 (16.1%) -£1.20
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.52 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A good increase of £40, but last week's drop was £45 so this is still going backwards. Most frustrating that the big loser this week was CAML:Central Asia Metals, which is the one that looked closest to going into profit. It's now 11% down and looking far away from providing any income. It's a good job the £2,000 I borrowed to start this was interest free, as I'm not making any sort of return on it.




Actually, I think the last 6 weeks have seen a slight increase - could there be hope?




Maybe just a fools hope...

I haven't a clue what's likely to happen next week. If the £1,000 turns up then at the moment it's going on CAML:Central Asia Metals, especially if it drops lower. If it spikes upwards I'll have to re-think. Contenders are CEY:Centamin as it's still under-valued, IQE:IQE as I would have considered 75p ludicrously cheap 6 months ago, PRU:Prudential because I've wanted to start building a position there for years and I saw loads of evidence of their presence on a recent trip to Vietnam, or LLOY:Lloyds as they are slowly sneaking up and PPI is a thing of the past suggesting a return to healthy dividends - but what of the Brexit bogey?

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