Saturday, 20 July 2019

Week 206 Review - Can it get any worse?

Another dreadful and depressing week. OPTI:Optibiotix is having a major slump and will soon be back at a loss. The combined portfolio dropped by £4,080 and is now £12,981 in the red and only worth £88,604. I'm feeling a bit miserable.

Worst performer was my recent purchase SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which plunged 10% and has now gone to a 9% loss. Oh great!

Next biggest drop was IQE:IQE which I have in all three accounts and which dropped 9% in my ISA and is already 31% down when this was meant to be a short-term holding place for cash until SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics went below 20p. Well it has, but I don't have the cash to take advantage - brilliant move!

OPTI:Optibiotix crashed 7% which cost most of my losses this week. I really don't know what's going on, as there has been relentless good news and yet hardly anyone is buying the share, leaving it open to traders to fill their boots. It's been going on for 4 years now and I'm getting a bit fed up. So fed up I bought some more!

IKA:Ilika dropped 6% and any hopes of getting rid in the near future have been dashed.

TLOU:Tlou Energy had been creeping up, but tanked 5% this week for no reason.

Share of the Week is easy yet again because only one company climbed more than 5% and that was  MMX:Minds + Machines. They issued a very positive trading statement to say they have paid off all their debts, are generating cash, and have started a share buy-back while the price is so low.I think there's a good chance these will start paying dividends in the future, but it hasn't been the quick win I was hoping for as they are 20% down.




I've decided to stop commenting on the charts as single words like "dire" are pretty obvious just by looking at it. I think dire would have been the word for today. There's also the small matter of the cash injection line leaping up by £9,000 after I discovered an error with my ISA calculations that under-recorded the initial injection by £9,000. It was all a bit confusing in the early days and as the Brewin Dolphin account no longer exists I had to do a load of calculations and got them wrong, as I was working against portfolio value instead of cost, but it's all fixed now.




The ISA and share accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £27.36
+£0.22
Portfolio cost £57,887.63
-£34.30
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £48,611.71 (-16%) -£2,876.24
Potential profits £2,441.59
-£2,360.39
Yr 4 Dividends £103.97
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,659.19
-£33.52
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £149.23 (3.1%) -£6.01
Total Dividends £1,342.30
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,356.31
-£33.52
Average monthly cash profit £452.49 (9.4%) -£2.92
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

I sold my holding of 550 shares in TND:Tandem Group, which I had intended to hold for much longer, but the anticipated rise following the recent trading update just never came. It's an incredibly illiquid share with very few in circulation so tends to have quite extreme movements, but I've wanted out for a long time as the dividends are pathetic compared to the massive director remuneration. It's a classic example of a company that takes advantage of the shareholders to line the pockets of the directors.

I had £81.47 dividends over the 4 years I've been a holder (compared to over £1,000 dividends from CAML:Central Asia Metals over the same period), so I was prepared to take a £33.52 (3.1%) loss to liberate cash so I could buy more OPTI:Optibiotx. I purchased 1,441 shares at 71.99p costing £1,049.33.

This takes my OPTI:Optibiotix holding to 84,108 shares bought at a weighted average of 67p and costing £56,665.14 including commission. They are making just £3,352 potential profit when less than a year ago they were up by around £40,000. It's been really difficult watching that vanish, but I'm not selling a single one because I believe the story, and I believe there is immense long term value. I'll keep taking advantage of these blips to buy more, and if my next £2,200 pension transfer comes through in time, I'll probably be putting it here.

Each 1p change in share price is worth £841 now, so there will be some extreme swings in the portfolio over the next 12 months.

Meanwhile I lost half my paper profits and the rest of the portfolio sank by another £500 so it was a bad week.




The injection line is now corrected and shows I haven't put anything in this year.




The SIPP looks like this after week 190



Weekly Change
Cash £81.09
+£0
Portfolio cost £41,232.99
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £38,541.38 (-6.5%) -£1,224.71
Potential profits £1,832.75
-£1,228.83
Yr 4 Dividends £361.99
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.08
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £743.60
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £127.22 (3.7%) -£3.85
Total Dividends £1,704.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.11
+£0
Total Profit from sales £11,288.52
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £287.44 (8.4%) -£1.53
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

Nothing much to say. Apart from losing paper profit, the rest of the portfolio was flat.




I put a transfer application in for £2,200 today. It usually comes through in about 2 weeks so we'll get another rise in the injection line soon.




The trading account looks like this after week 156



Weekly Change
Cash £35.04
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,307.82 (-43.7%) -£13.73
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 3 Dividends £33.57
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £17.55 (9.1%) -£0.35
Dividends £34.72
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.82 (-0.4%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

A small drop as IQE:IQE obliterates a reasonable performance in the other shares.

This has been going for 3 years now, and this is the first year my profits have been anywhere near the target 10%. The problem is the 9.1% was from just one sale of KOD:Kodal Minerals right at the start of the year. That made 34.5% and got my optimism up for the rest of the year, but I've not made a single trade since then. Utterly hopeless. I need one share to get to the point I can sell it so I can start treating this as a proper trading account as I reckon I have a much better idea what to do now, but no opportunity to try it.




Not much further and we'll have a 50% loss.




Here's the This is Money fantasy stock picking performance



Having 4 out of 7 in profit is better than my usual performance, but IQE:IQE has really dragged me down and I'm 1,524th which is a drop of around 400 places.




Nothing setting the portfolio on fire, but it's quite good. I've realised I don't have enough time to spot when a bargain is available so I'll just have to hope this lot perform.

I'm not aware of anything significant happening next week. Just waiting for summer to end and hoping we can be dragged out of the doldrums, as "Sell in May and go away" is sounding like the best plan this year.

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