Saturday, 3 August 2019

Week 208 Review - It's all gone to hell in a handbag!

Please make it stop! A truly awful week resulting in every single share I own being in the red, even ones that have been in profit for years. I did exacerbate that by selling all my CEY:Centamin holding, which was in profit, but OPTI:Optibiotix and CAML:Central Asia Metals both plunged into the red this week. The result was a £7,154 drop in portfolio value and a widening of the deficit to £20,165 which is the biggest it has ever been, and overall portfolio value of £84,498. That's £35,000 less than its peak just under a year ago, and I've added £15,000 since then.

Worst performer was OPTI:Optibiotix which dropped 10% and now is suffering a 4% loss.This triggered my usual reaction which is to buy more. I sold my entire CEY:Centamin holding despite gold heading upwards to free up capital for the purchase, and also used the majority of my pension transfer which came through this week. The result is my OPTI holding now stands at 94,086 costing £63,417.73. They are losing £3,238.54 after this week's drop. Each penny change in share price is now worth £940. For such a volatile share this is going to be a hell of a roller coaster! My ambition is to get to 100,000 shares now I'm so close. I already own more than 0.1% of the company, which I never thought would happen.

IQE:IQE had a great week last week and I was hoping my ISA holding would get back into profit. However, this week it dropped 6% so the wait continues as they are now 17% down.

JLP:Jubilee Metals may be stirring for a re-rate. They are producing now and ramping up processing capacity, so I feel we're only one announcement away from getting back into profit. The climbed 6% this week but are still stuck on the range between 2.9p and 3.2p and are still 29% down.

Share of the week is TRMR:Tremor in the trading account. They have recently changed their name from TAP:Taptica and seem to be on the march. They climbed 10% this week, but had fallen so far that they are still 43% down.




In real terms this is the worst ever, as I've added so much into the SIPP this year. I'm really hoping patience will be rewarded.




Neil Woodford eat your heart out!

Here's the performance of the ISA and shares portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £23.52
-£3.84
Portfolio cost £57,992.82
+£35.19
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £45,028.13 (-22.3%) -£3.627.45
Potential profits £0
-£2,233.44
Yr 4 Dividends £103.97
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,694.29
+£35.10
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £146.42 (3.0%) +£0.11
Total Dividends £1,342.30
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,391.41
+£35.10
Average monthly cash profit £448.87 (9.3%) -£1.44
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

I sold 1,198 shares in CEY:Centamin and made a tiny £35.10 (2.2%) profit, but with over £50 dividends the total profit was 6%. I used the proceeds to buy 2,312 shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at 67p a share which slightly raises my weighted average to 66.46p, but 67p is pretty much the average across the portfolio so I'm happy to get more at that price.

The sale had virtually no affect on my performance, and as we come to the final week of year 4 I've only achieved 3% on sales and dividends which is way below my 10% target. Under the circumstances, maintaining my long term performance at 9.3% over a 4 year period is pretty impressive, especially as that's based on the current portfolio cost which has increased a lot.

The bad news is the potential profits being completely wiped out to zero, and losses deepening a further £1,400 on top of that. Not a great week!




This is getting dangerously close to my initial cash injection line, which would mean I've made absolutely nothing in 4 years and would have been as well putting the cash in the building society.




The SIPP looks like this after week 192



Weekly Change
Cash £15.52
-£115.58
Portfolio cost £44,226.49
+£2,993.50
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £37,902.15 (-14.3%) -£3,504.02
Potential profits £0
-£1,562.49
Yr 4 Dividends £361.99
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.09
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,440.43
+£696.83
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £202.26 (5.5%) +£78.68
Total Dividends £1,704.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.12
+£0
Total Profit from sales £11,985.35
+£696.83
Average monthly cash profit £299.85 (8.1%) +£13.91
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

I sold my 2,965 CEY:Centamin shares for £696.83 (23%) profit, and with the £68 of dividends that was 25%. I used the cash to buy 5,596 OPTI:Optibiotix shares at 66.66p costing £3,742.24. The day before I had my £2,200 pension transfer. I initially bought 393 shares in CAML:Central Asia Metals for 205.67p costing £820.23 which brought my total holding there to 5,000 shares. They are now 9.5% of my portfolio cost and I still consider them to be the best run company I own.

The rest of the transfer was used to buy OPTI:Optibiotix. I purchased 2,070 shares at 69.44p costing £1,449.36. My weighted average price in the SIPP is now 67.97p.

All potential profits were wiped out with the sale and OPTI crash, and losses deepened by an additional £2,000. The sale almost doubled my year 4 performance to 5.5%, but although my long term average improved by £13 a month, the cost of the portfolio rose enough for my percentage performance to drop from 8.3% to 8.1%. I sometimes think my rules are too strict!




Not familiar territory for this account.




I seem to have dropped off a cliff!

The trading portfolio looks like this after week 158



Weekly Change
Cash £35.04
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,374.40 (-40.8%) -£22.90
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £0 (0%) +£0
Dividends £34.72
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.81 (-0.4%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)

The improvement in TRMR:Tremor mitigated the losses everywhere else so the drop was only £22.




Tootling along rubbishly






Still slowly dragging the trend line upwards

Here's the fantasy stock performance




I only dropped 25 places to 863rd so it could have been much worse.




CEY:Centamin doing very nicely so I'll keep the fantasy version. LLOY:Lloyds rather messing things up. I was hoping the end of PPI would cause a re-rate for the banks, but there are a few stngs in the PPI tail yet so I may have jumped too soon.

A week to forget for share prices, but a week of great excitement as I build my position in OPTI:Optibiotix. I'm still as certain as ever that this is a superb company with astonishing potential. It's brexit-proof and on the cusp of some staggering global deals. The share price was lower than this a year ago, and hit 130p within a few weeks. The rise from here to 130p would be worth £62,000 with my current holding. Bring it on!

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