Week 267 Review - Great week overshadowed by Central Asia Metals disaster

This was meant to be the week CAML:Central Asia Metals announced great results and re-instated the dividend. I really thought I would get back into profit on the back of that. Instead Monday saw the announcement of a breach in one of their Sasa tailings dams causing polluted tailings to enter the river. Not only an ecological disaster, but a disaster for the share price. What's most concerning is that CAML treat their safety and environmental responsibilities seriously, so this never should have happened. 

Despite this, the rest of the portfolio did really well with some big rises and OPTI:Optibitox staging a small recovery. The deficit between cost and value reduced by £7,841 to £22,887 and total portfolio value increased to £97,718.

CAML:Central Asia Metals was not surprisingly the biggest loser, dropping 12% to go 15% down. The results were really good on Wednesday given Covid and low metal prices. Although down on last year they still paid off loads of debt and have plenty of cash. They were about to re-instate the dividend as I suspected, but have postponed an announcement until they know the implications of the dam breach. Based on the relatively small amount that leaked, there shouldn't be too much of an impact. There will however be fines to pay and a cleanup operation to fund.

TLOU:Tlou Energy dropped 8% in my trading account but only 2% in my ISA. The offer price is pretty close to what I paid, but there is a 20% spread to the bid price. It was clearly a mistake to get them in the trading account, but I'm still excited for prospects here.

MMX:Minds + Machines has been drifting over the last few weeks and dropped another 5% this week. Given they stated there would be an announcement on the maiden dividend in September, I'm still hoping for a re-rate when that announcement comes.

FXPO:Ferrexpo had a good week, climbing 6% to go 9% up, and with another dividend about to arrive these are performing well.

OPTI:Optibiotix finally announced the Sweetbiotix manufacturing deal we've been waiting for so long. I thought the share price would double on that, but it hardly moved at all. It moved more after an announcement that LP-LDL would be sold in Brazil. I think the door will be open to announce lots of deals for Sweetbiotix now there's a manufacturer, so hopefully we'll be in profit before too long as I'm fed up of holding a big loss.

JLP:Jubilee Metals has another great week, climbing 11% to go 36% up in my ISA with potential profit of £2,220. I won't be selling though. I will be selling my SIPP holding which is up 34% and making £688 potential profit. I just need SBTX:Sweetbiotix to get down to my target price.

Share of the Week yet again is DDDD:4D Pharma, which climbed a staggering 73% of my purchase price this week and is now 225% up with potential profit of £3,273. I'm not selling any though - there's a hell of a lot more to come yet.

Not quite back up to the half-way point between the cost and injection lines

No change to the trend line, but we're well above it now

The ISA and share portfolios look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£6.98		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,366.49		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£47,533.05	(-23.8%)	+£4,709.44
Potential profits	£2,220.83		+£710.74
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	-£4.64	(-0.1%)	+£0.78
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,426.61		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£349.42	(6.7%)	-£1.31
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	10.1%		+0%
Compound performance	52%		+0%

Great increase in value mainly thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, and the £710 increase in potential profits was all JLP:Jubilee Metals

Well below the halfway point between injection and cost, but a nice bounce after the misery of the last few weeks.

Back above the trend line which still seems to be ever so slightly downwards, but getting flatter

The SIPP looks like this after week 251

			Weekly Change
Cash	£64.44		+£0
Portfolio cost	£55,593.53		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£48,570.24	(-12.6%)	+£3,201.98
Potential profits	£4,197.66		+£1,301.36
Yr 5 Dividends	£96.37		+£0
Yr 5 Interest	£0.03		+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales	£212.32		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£16.56	(0.4%)	-£0.40
Total Dividends	£1,995.61		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£12,761.31		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£244.63	(5.3%)	-£0.98
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	7.9%		+0%
Compound performance	38%		+0%

Nice increase in potential profits mainly thanks to DDDD:4D Pharma and a bit from JLP:Jubilee Metals and FXPO:Ferrexpo, but the increase in sell value was diminished by the big drop in CAML:Central Asia Metals.

This one is a lot closer to the cost line and almost at a record high. The post-covid part of the chart looks pretty good.

Still quite a steep downwards trend line, but we're well above it now.

Here's the trading portfolio after week 217

			Weekly Change
Cash	£220.72		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.16		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,322.96	(-43.8%)	-£70.06
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£154.70		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£74.48	(38.0%)	-£9.31
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£441.07		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£9.76	(5.0%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

A dreadful week with big drops for CAML:Central Asia Metals and TLOU:Tlou Energy not matched by small rises in IQE:IQE and TRMR:Tremor and resulting in a £70 drop.

It was looking promising a few weeks ago...

Well below the trend line now, but at least it's still pointing upwards

Here's my wish list

1. OPTI:Optibiotix SweetBiotix announcement. Yes! At last! It didn't have the short term effect on the share price I'd hoped for, but is an important milestone, and the announcement made it clear that other manufacturers would be producing some of the other Sweetbiotix products, so there should be further announcements to come. The other snippet of info was that there are 11 partners in advanced testing of the product, and that's just one of six Sweetbiotix products that have been developed.
2. SBTX to drop in price to 16p. Unfortunately the drop to 19p was reversed this week and we're back up to 20p,, but given JLP:Jubilee Metals has quite a bit further to go in the short term, I'm happy to wait a bit longer.
3. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. Nope, and the price is dropping. I'm hoping that it's being manipulated, as a 20% spread suggests the market makers may be trying to get stock and want to put off retail buyers. If that's the case we could see a spike upwards next week. That could be wishful thinking.
   
4. IQE:IQE increase another 5% so we get a gradual climb to 100p. There was a 2% climb this week, but at least it wasn't a drop, so I'm keeping this wish as I think a gradual climb to 100p is possible.
   
5. Six SIPP shares to stay in potential profit. Let down by POLR:Polar Capital Holdings again, which dropped another 2% this week to go 5% down.
6. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM. I can't believe we've still not had this announcement, so I'm keeping it on the list.
7. OPTI:Optibiotix to get within 10% of profit. I canned this one last week, but it's back on the cards so I'm not canning it. The ISA holding is only 14% down and SIPP is 18% down so that might take a bit longer.
8. CAML:Central Asia Metals re-instate their dividend. I thought I'd be saying this had come true and scrubbing it off the list, but it hasn't. If things move quickly with the tailings dam repair then we may see an announcement, so I'll keep it in the list
9. This is a new one - that MMX:Minds + Machines announce their maiden dividend. It's meant to be happening in September so I think next week could be the week, and hopefully the price drop this week is just Market Makers trying to trigger a few more stop losses before a re-rate next week.