A pretty good week, with many companies up significantly, but one massive fly in the ointment as DDDD:4D Pharma halved in value. The deficit between cost and value improved by £1,969 and now stands at £20,358, with the overall value passing the significant £100k milestone at £101,933.
DDDD:4D Pharma fell an eye-watering 117% on release of the Phase II results for their treatment for IBS. There was a 55% positive outcome for the drug, but a 40% positive outcome for the placebo and the market didn't like that at all. Given this is just one of many irons in the fire, the drop seemed a little over-done. I was certainly a little relieved that I had sold half my holding for 156% profit last week.The shares are still up by 107% so I'm still happy as this lot will be a long term hold now.
MMX:Minds + Machines really annoyed me last week, and did so again this week. They released an RNS about re-accounting some previous revenue, and that triggered a 13% drop in share price. My suspicions that they are trying to drop the price so they can take it private on the cheap are being re-enforced by this sort of thing. I still can't think of another reason they would do a tender offer instead of paying a dividend. They want to hoover up shares, and they don't want to return value to the majority of shareholders, many of whom are well underwater and were relying on the divi to get something out of their holding.
Fortunately they were the only big droppers this week. IQE:IQE are gradually creeping up again, with a 7% rise taking my ISA holding to only 24% down. A lot further for the trading and SIPP accounts, but hope is being kindled.
TLOU:Tlou Energy haven't released any news, but there has been some very big buying every day. The share price in my ISA climbed 8% this week, but is still 65% down. My trading account went up a whopping 25% and into profit. It's 8% in the green so I need to try and decide how much further to let it run before selling out.
CAML:Central Asia Metals is gradually recovering, with an 8% rise this week. They announced that production has recommenced and the environmental cleanup is underway following the tailings dam breach, and once again hinted that a dividend announcement is coming soon as production is still within guidelines despite everything that's been going on.
POLR:Polar Capital Holdings had been hammered the last few weeks, but bounced back 8% this week to go back into profit. Things do seem rather volatile at the moment, even for these fund type shares.
Share of the Week is ITV:ITV which climbed 9% to go into profit just one week after me buying them. After posting last week's blog I re-populated my magic formula spreadsheet and was rather horrified to see ITV had fallen out of the top 10 and down to 34, which should have excluded me from buying them. It's amazing how much changes in a few months. I still believe now is the time to take a position here, although the American networks chickening out of showing Spitting Image in case they upset Trump may cause a dip next week.
Just a small increase, but not far off the high from a few months ago.
The trend line is almost flat, but not quite
Here are the ISA and share portfolios
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash |
£33.23 |
-£3.75 | |
| Portfolio cost | £62,366.49 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) | £50,061.88 | (-19.7%) | +£1,113.75 |
| Potential profits | £1,510.09 | +£0 | |
| Yr 6 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 6 Profit from sales | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit | -£4.88 | (-0.1%) | -£1.27 |
| Total Dividends | £1,343.15 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £20,426.61 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £345.47 | (6.6%) | -£1.35 |
|
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
|||
| Performance/Injection | 9.9% | -0.1% | |
| Compound performance | 52% | +0% |
Cash down by monthly fee and JLP:Jubilee Metals unchanged, so no change
to potential profits. Nice tick upwards in value, but my performance by
injection has dropped below 10% so I could do with selling something as
nothing in this account pays a divi yet.
Still nearer to the injection line than the cost line
The trend line isn't quite flat - still ever so slightly downwards, but we're well above it.
The SIPP looks like this after week 254
| Weekly Change | ||||
| Cash | £132.87 | +£1.82 | ||
| Portfolio cost | £57,183.70 | +£0 | ||
|
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) |
£49,846.88 | (-12.8%) | +£654.81 | |
| Potential profits | £2,436.26 | -£734.50 | ||
| Yr 5 Dividends | £162.58 | +£18.48 | ||
| Yr 5 Interest | £0.03 | +£0 | ||
| Yr 5 Profit from sales | £1,747.67 | +£0 | ||
| Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit | £164.80 | (3.5%) | -£3.48 | |
| Total Dividends | £2,061.82 | +£18.48 | ||
| Total Interest | £0.20 | +£0 | ||
| Total Profit from sales | £14,296.77 | +£0 | ||
| Average monthly cash profit | £268.78 | (5.6%) | -£1.03 | |
|
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
||||
| Performance/Injection | 8.6% | -0.1% | ||
| Compound performance | 42% | +0% |
There was an £18.48 dividend from FXPO:Ferrexpo but that only just covered the monthly fee, so cash only went up by £1.82. Value would have been up twice the £654 if DDDD:4D Pharma hadn't crashed, and that hammered potential profits which are down £734.
My review of the revised magic formula spreadsheet has given me two new targets to watch. The first if PLUS:Plus 500 which despite having risen massively recently, still appears to be excellent value. I was also impressed how fat up the ranking CMCL:Caledonia Mining are, as they were one of my favourite shares and I'd love to get back into gold now the price has dipped below $2,000 and ounce. I'll be watching these closely while I decide what to do with my MMX:Minds + Machines holding, which I'm so concerned about that I may consider ditching them for a loss. I have a bad feeling in my water they're up to no good.
Almost flat compared to the last few weeks.
Even the highest highs are in a down trend, so this is still very much pointing down, but we're well above the line.
The trading account looks like this after week 220
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £220.72 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £2,354.16 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £1,637.53 | (-30.4%) | +£190.83 |
| Potential profits | £41.32 | +£41.32 | |
| Year 5 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 5 Profit | £154.70 | +£0 | |
| Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit | £55.86 | (28.5%) | -£5.08 |
| Dividends | £47.92 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | £441.07 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £9.63 | (4.9%) | -£0.05 |
|
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
An even better week than last week, with value up £190 and
TLOU:Tlou Energy going £41 into profit. I may get to play next week!
That's a big gap closed to the injection line, and if I make a profit on TLOU:Tlou Energy I'll be taking out the profits so the orange line will drop.
Well above the trend line which is starting to point quite strongly upwards.
Here's my wish list
- SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics to drop in price to 16p. Most distressing that this is heading higher again, back to 19.5p to buy. Have I left it too late to get back in?
- TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. Not yet, but something must be going on for the share price to have been climbing relentlessly for the last 2 weeks.
- JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM. Still no news and the share price has stagnated..
- OPTI:Optibiotix to get within 10% of profit. Still so nearly true, with the ISA holding improving by 2% to only 8% down and the SIPP also improving 2% to 12% down. Mid-week were were almost back in profit, but Friday let the side down.
- CAML:Central Asia Metals re-instate their dividend. Still waiting and hoping it will be in the next few weeks..
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