Week 277 Review - Magic formula shares shine

In a week when OPTI:Optibiotix stays flat, the rest of the portfolio have a chance to influence performance. This week the ISA rather let me down, but the magic formula shares were amazing in the SIPP. Combined portfolio value is up by £766 and the deficit between cost and value reduced to £25,319 with total value £99,368. This is just about as flat a week as I've had for a long time when the difference is less than £1,000, as normally a 1p change in OPTI is enough to beat that.

There were no shares losing 5% or more this week. A rare and happy occurrence.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha was the first of the magic formula shares to do well, with a 5% climb. I think this is just down to a gradual recovery after I bought them at a post-Covid bargain. They are now up by 24% and making £237 potential profit as well as having paid £33 in dividends.

BLU:Blue Star Capital also climbed 5% possibly due to the massive increase in Stellar Lumens cryptocurrency. It probably increased the value of Satoshipay quite a bit. I'm still 77% down on these though, and I don't hold out enormous hopes for my £520 toe-dip stake.

CAML:Central Asia Metals have been on a great run for a while now, and climbed another 5% this week despite being ex-dividend. It appears a large institutional holder has been selling for some time, which could explain the insane cheapness of the shares. I don't care as it allowed me to buy around 2,500 shares below 160p when they have now hit 200p since the selling stopped, and my holding is up 8% and making £904 potential profit. I think fair value is 300p which will give me £6,681 potential profit, but while this management team are in charge I'll be keeping them for the dividend.

FXPO:Ferrexpo are another magic formula share and rose 6% to go 13% up and making £135 potential profit along with the £65 I've had in dividends. No particular reason for the climb other than recovery from post-Covid lows.

ITV:ITV are my most recent and most successful magic formula share, climbing 6% this week to go 34% up and making £341 potential profit. Just a bit annoying that I selected them for their historically high dividends, and that hasn't been reinstated yet.

IES:Invinity Energy have started giving me a tiny ray of hope that one of my most misguided investments might work out. When RED:RedT Energy as good as went bust, I thought my £1,092 investment was doomed, but the new company seem to have much more success at winning contracts, so they are up 6% this week and only 64% down altogether. Hope is re-kindled.

Share of the Week is IQE:IQE, climbing 7% after a long period in the doldrums. I think there's enough positivity to keep this going now, as they may very well be about to return to profitability. My ISA holding is only 14% down, and given I only bought these as a quick win while holding for a SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics drop, I'll be selling them as fast as I can then they get in profit, as I haven't lost my ambition to spend the proceeds on more SBTX.

Pretty flat for a few weeks now.

Just above the trend line which ought to steepen as the March dip moves towards the left of the chart, so it may get increasingly difficult to stay above the line.

The ISA and share accounts look like this

			Weekly Change
Cash	£9.70		+£0
Portfolio cost	£62,990.04		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£48,432.48	(-23.1%)	-£14.29
Potential profits	£3,972.05		-£100.00
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£591.81		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£147.03	(2.8%)	-£9.19
Total Dividends	£1,343.15		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£21,018.42		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£345.94	(6.6%)	-£1.26
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)
Performance/Injection	9.9%		-0.1%
Compound performance	53%		+0%

About as flat a week as you could get. The drop of 0.1p for JLP:Jubilee Metals caused potential profits to drop by £100, but increases elsewhere meant the overall value only dropped by £14. Long term performance as a percentage of injection amount dropped below the target 10%.

Flat.

Above the trend line = good.

The SIPP looks like this after week 261

			Weekly Change
Cash	£138.65		+£0
Portfolio cost	£58,959.20		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£48,848.88	(-17.1%)	+£750.99
Potential profits	£1,847.63		+£797.09
Yr 6 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 6 Average monthly cash profit	£0	(0%)	+£0
Total Dividends	£2,067.08		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£15,459.44		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£280.68	(5.7%)	-£1.08
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Performance/Injection	8.9%		+0%
Compound performance	45%		+0%

A nice increase in potential profits of £797 thanks to the magic formula shares, but a few losses deepened to result in the overall value not going up by quite as much. Still a pretty great week for the SIPP given OPTI:Optibiotix didn't change. This is week 1 of year 6, so nothing much happening there.

A noticeable tick upwards recovering last week's small loss.

It feels like we're not that far from this account going back into profit. If OPTI:Optibiotix can get back in the black we should be there.

The trading account looks like this after week 227

			Weekly Change
Cash	£236.18		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,354.11		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,702.31	(-27.7%)	+£30.12
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 5 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 5 Profit	£370.12		+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit	£84.41	(43.0%)	-£4.69
Dividends	£47.92		+£0
Profit from sales	£656.49		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£13.45	(6.9%)	-£0.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees  / Months)

A small tick upwards despite SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics falling 3%. Both CAML:Central Asia Metals and IQE:IQE are looking promising for a potential sell in the new year.

Absolutely brilliant that this account is reasonably well above the injection line, so at least if I abandon the whole thing, I'll have made a small profit.

Rising more steeply than the trend line - can it keep going?

Here's my wish list

1. TLOU:Tlou Energy announce de-watering has resumed. No news and the price dropped 4% this week. Surely it has to be coming soon?
   
2. JLP:Jubilee Metals to announce permission to process platinum rich tailings at DCM and the fine chrome plant move is completed and operational. No news yet, but the drop of only 0.1p this week shows that even with profit taking, to buys are preventing a crash back to the 6p area some are predicting. I'm just keeping everything crossed one of these two news stories drops this week to keep the momentum up.
   
3. OPTI:Optibiotix to get within 10% of profit. Well, they didn't go any lower this week. Things have been strangely quiet. In the past there's been a habit of some big surprise appearing after a quiet persiod, so I will keep hoping.
4. CMCL:Caledonia Mining reverses the down trend and gets back into profit. Nope. Down another 4% this week to go a worrying 25% down. That's pretty dreadful, but at such a low P/E ratio all it needs is confirmation production is up and we should see a swift reversal. Work to increase capacity will come on-line soon, so I still have high hopes.
5.  SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics gets back into profit. Nope - the reverse as we had a 3% drop.
   

My pension transfer request for £2,000 has been acted on by Legal & General, as my account has dropped by that amount. It usually takes about 3 days to get into my account, so we may have a quick turnaround this time. 

Here are my plans from last week:

If OPTI:Optibiotix less than 60p then buy - else
If SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics less than 17p then buy - else
If DDDD:4D Pharma less than 100p then buy - else
Buy PLUS:Plus500 and PSN:Persimmon

At the moment OPTI:Optibiotix is still below 60p, so I am destined to increase my holding there if it stays at this level.  SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is also below 17p at 16.75p, and DDDD:4D Pharma is 99.4p so again still in the price range. Looks like the new magic formula shares won't get a look-in.