Sunday, 23 May 2021

Week 302 Review - Everything drifting down yet again

Yet another tedious week of gentle drifting downwards, a worrying trend that I'm hoping won't continue all summer. The deficit between cost and value widened by £2,056 to £29,217 and portfolio value fell to £115,088.

Worst performer for a second week was JLP:Jubilee Metals as people take profits. I can't blame them as I took plenty. This sank by 23% of my purchase price, but is still up by 332%.

APAX:Apax Global Alpha dropped 8% as a major institutional investor offloaded most of their holding in a private placing at a discount to the share price. It's still up 32% and I anticipate will recover from this blip quickly.

TLOU:Tlou Energy has been drifting for a few weeks and fell another 6%, so even my SIPP holding that was recently in profit is down by 16% now.

Share of the Week once again goes to the only holding that was up by 5% or more. POLR:Polar Capital Holdings climbed 5% to go 57% up altogether. The review date for this is the end of June, but APAX:Apax Global Alpha is due for review on 1st June so I will need to re-calculate my magic formula spreadsheet next week. It took many hours last time, but with recent changes it will be interesting to see what's at the top. It won't be FXPO:Ferrexpo any more as they have more than doubled in share price. If my bond fund goes up by £100 in my work pension I should have enough to transfer another £2,000 at the end of June so I can use the re-calculated spreadsheet for that too, as I need much better discipline after having sunk most of my magic formula money into gut bacteria companies!




The decline continues




That's pretty much four months of continual decline. No wonder I'm writing this later every weekend - my heart just isn't in it at the moment.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 42 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £40.35

+£0
Portfolio cost £70,691.67
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £55,726.57 (-21.2%) -£1,365.42
Potential profits £7,174.08
-£500.00
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £6,218.52
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £637.72 (17.4%) -£15.56
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £26,645.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £397.72 (10.9%) -£1.32
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 63%
+0%


Potential profits down by £500 thanks to the JLP:Jubilee Metals drop, but an additional £865 loss across the rest of the portfolio is bad.




The decline doesn't look too bad here, but it's deceptive due to injections and re-invested profits.




That better reflects the true horror of the situation.

The SIPP looks like this after week 286 overall and week 26 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £355.71
+£75.00
Portfolio cost £70,584.17
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£57,245.13 (-18.9%) -£721.12
Potential profits £3,905.69
-£115.74
Yr 6 Dividends £594.51
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £5,295.11
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £964.88 (26.5%) -£38.60
Total Dividends £2,661.59
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,754.55
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £343.87 (9.4%) -£1.20
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 52% +0%

Cash went up £75 thanks to a tax rebate from a contribution back in March, potential profits down £115 thanks to drops in APAX:Apax Global Alpha and CAML:Central Asia Metals, and losses deepened by an additional £600.




Still just above halfway between injection and cost so could be worse




As with the ISA, a very depressing downward trend recently which is flattening the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 252 overall and week 44 of year 5.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,461.08 (-38.5%) +£29.93
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 5 Dividends £12.18
+£0
Year 5 Profit £651.51
+£0
Yr 5 projected avg monthly profit £65.36 (33.0%) -£1.52
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £17.16 (8.7%) -£0.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

A little ray of sunshine thanks to a slight recovery in DDDD:4D Pharma means we're up this week, but I seem to be back locked into long term losses after a brief flurry of success.




Not much of a tick up, but at least it is up.




A long way to go to recover, and a long time until I can sell anything.

I should get my CAML:Central Asia Metals dividend next week, which will be a few hundred quid. Not enough to buy anything so I'll leave it alone and use it to boost whatever I buy next. If I sell APAX:Apax Global Alpha or POLR:Polar Capital when their review comes up then I'll be able to use this plus a little injection to get 2 new magic formula shares to replace the one.

The big news expected next week is the OPTI:Optibiotix annual results. The expectation is that they will be similar to the underwhelming trading statement earlier in the year, but with just a tiny hope that the outstanding royalty payments will be bigger than expected. I don't think they will be big enough to make any difference to the share price. We're stuck at these levels until some pretty earth shattering news comes through.

If the first SweetBiotix deal turns out to be a minor one and not a global brand, then we could sink further. I'm still peeved that our great launch in US retail turned out to be some crappy cookies that nobody will buy, when we were expecting Walmart own brands. If I have one criticism of OPTI it's that the facts sometimes don't match up to the expectations. Lets keep everything crossed for next week. Even just a 5p rise will make a big difference to reversing my recent declines.

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