Sunday, 25 July 2021

Week 311 Review - Another dreadful week, but added more magic formula shares

It just keeps getting worse. When is St Leger's Day as it can't come soon enough! The deficit between cost and value widened by another £3,516 this week to £36,609. Most of the drop was down to a 2p fall in OPTI:Optibiotix Health, but most shares lost money. The portfolio value dropped to £109,413 and there's an increasing risk it will go below £100k.

My worst performer was ASY:Andrews Sykes Group which dropped 12%. When I say it dropped 12%, it didn't actually drop at all. The share is so illiquid it has a gigantic spread, so my new purchase was 12% down as soon as I made it. The spread nearly stopped me buying it, but it's clearly there in the top 10 magic formula shares and pays a big dividend, so I'm reasonably comfortable by the time I review them in 12 months time, the 12% will have been got back. I bought 176 shares at 568p costing £1,008.63. That was better than I hoped, as the offer price is 590p, but the bid price is only 510p making a 14% spread on paper.

OPTI:Optibiotix Health dropped 2p which is 3% and contributed around £3,200 of the weeks losses.

There were a few performers this week. SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy had an amazing day on Friday finishing up 83% on their price from the day before. However that amounted to just 5% of my purchase price given they had dropped earlier in the week and my purchase price was so high. The worry over half the shares being in the hands of receivers has gone away and was the catalyst for the rise.

JLP:Jubilee Metals wins Share of the Week for an 18% rise on my purchase price as they recover from the scare when things started kicking off in South Africa. News on copper production should see this move to new highs.




The green line is down despite an injection of £2,000.




If anything the fall is getting steeper and has been going for 6 months.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 51 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £35.33

+£0
Portfolio cost £68,170.47
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £52,714.59 (-22.7%) -£1,562.43
Potential profits £6,824.08
+£400.00
Yr 6 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £3,697.33
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £310.33 (8.5%) -£6.21
Total Dividends £1,343.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £24,123.94
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £350.98 (9.6%) -£1.13
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 57%
+0%

Not a lot of activity. JLP:Jubilee Metals climbed by £400 but that didn't do much to soften the £1,562 drop in value. With one week left of year 6 it's looking like a slightly below average year for profits, but I'll take 8.5%.






The lowest point since around 9 months ago.

The SIPP looks like this after week 295 overall and week 35 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £472.54
-£19.83
Portfolio cost £75,478.31
+£2,019.83
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£55,388.94 (-26.6%) -£1,919.13
Potential profits £775.52
+£90.00
Yr 6 Dividends £888.61
+£0
Yr 6 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 6 Profit from sales £7,774.62
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £1,055.99 (27.7%) -£31.06
Total Dividends £2,955.69
+£0
Total Interest £0.20
+£0
Total Profit from sales £23,234.06
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £373.62 (9.8%) -£1.27
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Compound performance 56% -2%

My £2,000 injection came through from my work pension so I was able to get 2 more magic formula shares. I've already mentioned ASY:Andrews Sykes Group, which came 7th on my ranking list with P/E ratio of 17.82 (ranked 125), dividend yield of 8.56% (ranked 14), ROCE of 22.88 (ranked 36) and debt to profits ratio of 1.88 (ranked 53). So excellent dividend and ROCE, not bad debt, and price nothing to write home about but fair value. The main red flag is the illiquidity of the shares given there are only 42 million and 86% are on the hands of the founding family. However, this has been the situation for many years so I see it as a reason the share price isn't higher as traders will stay well clear, but not as a reason to avoid. The huge spread was actually not as huge as advertised, but still pretty huge. As a long term investment it shouldn't be an issue.

The next share on my magic formula list was ASHM:Ashmore Group, a company that manages assets in emerging markets. They were one of the first companies I ever invested in, buying at 252p and selling for £149 (15.8%) profit. This time the shares were 373p and I bought 267 costing £1,011.20. On my spreadsheet they have P/E ratio of 13.38 (ranked 103), dividend yield of 4.27% (ranked 82), ROCE of 24.65 (ranked 31) and debt to profit ratio of 0.76 (ranked 24). So it was mainly low debt and high ROCE that got them ranked so high, with a decent dividend and fair share price. There is some risk that Covid could have a worse impact on the markets they specialise in, but they've been operating under that cloud for over a year and seem to be doing ok, so I decided it was a risk worth taking.

Meanwhile there was a tiny £90 improvement in profits thanks to CAML:Central Asia Metals, and a thumping great drop in value caused by everything else losing money.




Green line way closer to orange is very bad.




The trend line is properly downward now and steepening rapidly. I don't think the SIPP has ever been this far in the red.

The trading account looks like this after week 261 overall and week 1 of year 6.




Weekly Change
Cash £259.74
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,374.14
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,310.12 (-44.8%) -£35.37
Potential profits £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Dividends £0.00
+£0
Year 6 Profit £0.00
+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit £0.00 (0%) +£0
Dividends £60.10
+£0
Profit from sales £937.88
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £16.57 (8.4%) -£0.06
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)

The start of year 6 so everything set to zero, but with the portfolio 44% down there's no chance of selling anything for ages. Just a case of sitting it out and hoping for some good news. Most shares dropped this week so another £35 was knocked off the value.




Only cash is keeping this above the orange line.




The trend line has turned downwards and will steepen rapidly unless something good happens.

I've decided to set up a monthly savings plan in my SIPP as I've paid off one of my loans used to buy more OPTI:Optibiotix Health (for more than the share price is now!!). The benefit of saving £120 a month into my SIPP is that the tax refund is more than enough to pay my SIPP charges, and there is no commission charged on the purchases. I'm investing it into the Blackrock World Gold fund as that's probably a safer bet then some of the miners and means I can start selling the higher risk ones like HUM:Hummingbird Resources, CMCL:Caledonia Mining and CEY:Centamin as you never know when they will have some sort of disaster that hammers the share price. At the current price I'll get 5 shares a month as they are around £21 each. I really wanted to buy a Gold ETF but none were available in the monthly savings scheme. With hindsight I probably should have set this up in my AJ Bell account instead of Hargreaves Lansdown, but only just thought of that!

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