Week 346 Review - 4D Pharma rallies but Optibiotix drops back

I guess it was too much to hope that the recent recovery would be maintained, especially with OPTI:Optibiotix going ex-dividend on the share handout. I was expecting much worse than the 3p drop, but it meant the deficit between cost and value increased by £3,216 to £66,805 and portfolio value decreased to £91,958.

Biggest loser was JLP:Jubilee Metals which for some reason dropped following what I thought were good, solid results. There has been a lot of expenditure to ramp up production capacity, but that was ignored as the market focused on the fact profit was lower than the last period. The fact we no longer have any debt was not taken into consideration. The share price dropped 9% of my original purchase price, which isn't actually a big drop. I'm determined to resist the temptation to sell any more of these.

OPTI:Optibiotix was the next worst performer, dropping 5%, but hopefully preparing to give me the equivalent of £12,000 dividend shortly. The 3p drop should have cost me £5,250 so it shows there were some good performances elsewhere to knock £2,000 off that drop.

DDDD:4D Pharma revealed amazing results from the latest cancer trials, meeting their endpoint early and in 25% of the patients rather than the target 10%. Normally you would expect s massive surge in share price, and indeed it came on the day of the announcement, up 60% around lunchtime. By the end of the day that had dropped to 25% up, and by the end of the week my ISA holding was only up by 10%. My SIPP was up 17% because that has a much smaller purchase price, but most pharma stocks would have doubled at least. The problem is we have a distressed seller still with 2% of the company who sold heavily into the rise, and I suspect as a result was massively shorted in the USA as soon as it hit 60% up. Very frustrating that I'm still over 50% down on these as it's my 2nd biggest holding  with over £18k invested.

Share of the Week is BLU:Blue Star Capital which announced very encouraging results and went up 19%. My holding is still 44% down so not holding my breath for anything to happen to make money.

Hoped I'd get across the injection line but it wasn't to be

After caressing the trend line last week, we're now back below it.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 34 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£25.80		+£0
Portfolio cost	£72,195.21		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£40,608.72	(-43.8%)	-£1,880.18
Potential profits	£1,935.29		-£80.00
Yr 7 Dividends	£22.16		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,664.29		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£466.50	(12.7%)	-£14.13
Total Dividends	£1,365.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,788.23		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£361.27	(9.8%)	-£1.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	65%		+0%

JLP:Jubilee Metals is the only thing in profit and dropped £80, although SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is within £8 of going into profit so we can hope for next week. Long term average profit performance is still good.

Still quite a way below the injection line

Never made it above the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 330 overall and week 18 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£133.13		-£32.95
Portfolio cost	£83,776.43		-£229.46
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£50,015.15	(-40.3%)	-£1,655.35
Potential profits	£114.81		+£74.30
Yr 7 Dividends	£96.57		+£0
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£297.22		-£229.00
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£78.86	(1.8%)	-£63.01
Total Dividends	£3,300.96		+£0
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,021.85		-£229.00
Average monthly cash profit	£347.12	(8.0%)	-£4.07
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	51%		+0%

Cash went up £32 thanks to a tax rebate. Portfolio cost dropped by £229 because I decided to take a 12.3% loss on CMCL:Caledonia Mining because they couldn't even get into profit with the massive high gold price, and I was miffed DDDD:4D Pharma only went up 10% and decided to buy some more.

I bought 2,839 shares at 56.68p costing £1,621.10 and they promptly fell to 50p. Bloody brilliant!

The loss on the sale hammered annual performance by £63 a month but only took £4 a month off long term performance. I'm still hoping DDDD will double when the distressed seller is out of the way.

Almost made it to the injection line but not quite

Bang on the trend line and still going down.

The trading account looks like this after week 296 overall and week 36 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£259.74		+£0
Portfolio cost	£2,374.14		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£916.44	(-61.4%)	+£89.62
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	£0.00		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	£0.00	(0%)	+£0
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£937.88		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£14.61	(7.4%)	-£0.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A good week thanks to the 10% increase in DDDD:4D Pharma, but with these still 65% down there's not much hope of an imminent profit even if they double from here.

Will it last?

We're above the trend line by enough to start flattening it.

So OPTI:Optibiotix didn't rise anywhere near as much as I hoped into the dividend ex-date, but then it dropped a lot less than I expected after, so all in all I can't complain. I will treat the dividend as if it's cash and so my long term performance will benefit massively and the shares will go as being purchased for whatever price they are valued at IPO. That way I can still report on losses and gains.

As for DDDD:4D Pharma, there are more trial results expected soon and our seller will run out of shares to sell, and the shorters will hopefully close at that point, as I desperately want to get at least past the injection line again else I feel I've wasted 6 years effort.