Week 362 Review - Optibiotix continues a gradual recovery with another great week

Two great weeks in a row. It's been well over a year since I could say that. OPTI:Optibiotix continued to recover with a 6.5p gain and was the main cause of a £12,081 reduction in the deficit between cost and value to £74,441 and I'm very happy to say took the overall portfolio value back over £100k to £108,853.

Biggest faller was JLP:Jubilee Metals, which goes without saying as I bought them in my  cursed trading account. It turns out a major investor who received shares as part of a debt arrangement is offloading them at a huge profit. Thankfully the impact could be a lot worse, but my trading account dropped by 5% and my main holding by 16% of my purchase price.

ASHM:Ashmore Group fell another 5% presumably because they have lots of links with China. These are 32% down and have been a magic formula disaster.

Another magic formula disaster is CEY:Centamin which dropped another 5% to go 37% down.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics climbed 5% on no news but are still 43% down.

Share of the Week for a second week n a row is OPTI:Optibiotix which climbed 11% and is now only 38% down. Could break even in 4 weeks if we keep this rate up. The news propelling the share price higher this week was a deal with Firmenich who are one of the world's biggest sweetener suppliers, and also publication of a paper in the Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry titled "Prebiotic potential of a new sweetener based on galactooligosaccharides and modified mogrosides". Both announcements have been long-awaited and could propel the share price back to the 60p range which would allow me to at least be breaking even.

Back above the injection line - much joy!

Soaring above the trend line now, but a long way from dragging it flat.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 50 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£0		+£0
Portfolio cost	£82,912.77		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£48,457.61	(-41.6%)	+£5,973.46
Potential profits	£1,163.55		-£94.50
Yr 7 Dividends	£10,425.77		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£3,970.12		+£0
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£1,244.07	(33.8%)	-£25.39
Total Dividends	£11,768.92		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£28,094.06		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£473.32	(12.8%)	-£1.31
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	89%		+0%

Potential profits down £94 thanks to the drop in JLP:Jubilee Metals but value up by almost £6k and with just 2 weeks to go to the end of year 7, it's looking like an excellent long term performance. However, we mustn't forget that looks good because it includes the PBX:Probiotix shares as a dividend. Next year could look really bad if DDDD:4D Pharma go bust.

Nicer than 2 weeks ago.

Way above the trend line, but can it last?

The SIPP looks like this after week 346 overall and week 34 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£75.67		-£141.09
Portfolio cost	£98,385.97		+£581.40
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£59,569.92	(-39.5%)	+£6,132.16
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Dividends	£10,727.13		+£25.14
Yr 7 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 7 Profit from sales	£243.31		-£114.83
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	£1,382.43	(29.7%)	-£53.67
Total Dividends	£13,931.52		+£25.14
Total Interest	£0.20		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£23,967.94		-£114.83
Average monthly cash profit	£462.81	(9.9%)	-£2.47
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	66%		-1%

Quite a lot going on this week.

First of all I've changed my magic formula to remove P/E ratio as one of the ranking categories and replaced it with 3-year growth. I've decided just because a share is cheap doesn't mean I should buy it, but if a company is growing then it's worth buying even if not considered cheap. There is often a reason a share is cheap, as I've learned to my cost over the last 12 months. So my new ranking is based on 3-year growth rate, dividend yield, return on capital and smallest debt compared to pre-tax profit.

As a result of the change and from recent results, SMS:Smart Metering Systems dropped way out of the top 30 and I was almost at the 12 month review point, so I sold them. The others are still in the top 30. I sold my 107 shares for 842.5p making a loss of £114.83 (11.3%) but after dividends it will be around 7%.

The loss made a small dent in long term performance which dipped below 10%.

I bought 2,776 shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at 31.9p costing £897.49 with the proceeds. I wanted to reduce my average price a bit more while I can, and they appear to be having a re-rate after the Sweetbiotix news. Fingers crossed it was a good move as they are already 36.5p to sell which has made up for the SMS loss.

For a similar reason I added £400 to my AJ Bell SIPP and along with the cash in the account bought 1,692 more OPTI:Optibiotix shares at 32.5p costing £559.85.

There was also my monthly investment in APAX:Apax Global Alpha buying 74 shares at 171.51p costing £128.42

The purchases took my OPTI:Optibiotix holding to 186,963 costing £109,005.36. They are losing £40,809 at the moment, but now Sweetbiotix is kicking in there's hope this will improve.

I almost for got there was also a £25 dividend from PLUS:Plus500.

Back above the injection line

Still £40k of losses to make up, but now well above the trend line.

The trading account looks like this after week 312 overall and week 52 of year 6.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£43.18		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,877.84		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£707.08	(-62.3%)	-£24.35
Potential profits	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 6 Profit	-£711.28		+£0
Yr 6 projected avg monthly profit	-£59.27	(-37.9%)	+£1.17
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Profit from sales	£226.60		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£3.98	(2.5%)	-£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

A £24 drop thanks to JLP:Jubilee Metals in this disastrous account. The end of year 6 sees a dreadful performance of -£59 a month, wiping out nearly all my profits over the 6 years. We're left at just under £4 a month long term profit, which amazingly is still better than building society interest. The problem is the loss in value of what's left and the fact it will get a hell of a lot worse when DDDD:4D Pharma are wound up.

Cost is down after last week's sale, but is still higher than the injection, but value continues to drop.

I hope we can start to sneak up from here. I only have one active investment left so everything rides on JLP:Jubilee Metals.

We had two lots of amazing Sweetbiotix news this week but there should be a lot more to come. This announcement was for a new company which will still need to work with other companies to develop products. The big news we are waiting for is one of the existing 11 partners launching a product, which now the scientific paper has been produced could be imminent. Fingers crossed...