Week 391 Review - ISA has a profitable share for the first time in ages

Generally a good week, with a few exceptions. The 0.5p increase in OPTI:Optibiotix contributed most of the £1,361 narrowing of the gap between cost and value to £126,892, and overall portfolio value stands at £71.620.

The biggest faller was CEY:Centamin, which dropped 8%. I don't understand what's going on. They have been falling for a month now, and yet gold is doing really well, and they are doing well too. My holding is now 11% down, so only 4% above my virtual stop-loss. I've had these for almost 2 years and have £78 of dividends. I would have sold after about a month when they originally tanked, but it was before my 15% virtual stop-loss system started. I may have to sell them next week if they drop to 99.5p from their current 104.3p.

JLP:Jubilee Metals was almost flat, but I bought some in my trading account and the spread is very wide, so they dropped 6% as soon as I bought them.

BLU:Blue Star Capital rose inexplicably and are now falling just as inexplicably. They dropped 5% this week to go 74% down.

ASHM:Ashmore Group climbed 5% and went into profit by 2% which is great news for a recently purchased magic formula share.

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics also climbed 5%. It was a lot more mid-week, but they dropped back at the end of the week. There's no reason for the rise, other than people getting twitchy about how soon a Croda deal will be announced.

NUM:Numis Corp was a disaster when I first bought it, whizzing past my virtual stop loss when I wasn't looking. Fortunately they recovered 6% this week, but are still 20% down. If the momentum continues then I'll impose my 15% virtual stop loss, although may be a bit more generous because they are not starting from zero.

PAGE:Page Group has been another successful magic formula share, this week climbing 8% and going 5% into profit.

Share of the week is CWR:Ceres Power, which I only bought last week, but which has risen 17% and is already £165 in potential profit. I hope they announce the joint venture soon, and we could see a real re-rate. I have set a virtual stop-loss at 7% so these will be profitable even if they drop from here.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 27 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£2,033.40		-£2,003.60
Portfolio cost	£92,161.34		+£1,999.85
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£29,928.93	(-67.5%)	+£793.58
Potential profits	£240.02		+£240.02
Yr 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£0.09		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£995.63		+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit	-£162.79	(-3.5%)	+£6.26
Total Dividends	£11,768.92		+£0
Total Interest	£0.09		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£27,098.43		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£426.93	(9.1%)	-£1.09
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	68%		+0%

Cash dropped by £2,000 as I invested half of it in some more JLP:Jubilee Metals shares. I bought 15,921 at 12.53p costing £1,999.85. I thought they would put on a spurt this week, but was wrong. Despite lots of big buys, the price dropped slightly so they are down 4%.

I'm saving the last £2,000 for PBX:Probiotix when the big sell-off is complete. They are appearing in accounts now. I can slle them in my AJ Bell account, but can't sell them in Hargreaves Lansdown yet. There have been a few big purchases to offset the falls, but once the majority of retail shareholders get access to their stock, the price will plummet.

Potential profits increased by £240, in fact I can't remember the last time I was able to report a potential profit on this account, so I allowed myself a little celebration. Most of the potential profits are in my AJ Bell share account, but 94p is in my ISA thanks to PLUS:Plus 500 climbing 1%.

Pretty flat looking

Unfortunately still below the trend line

The SIPP looks like this after week 375 overall and week 11 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£134.02		+£3.50
Portfolio cost	£101,379.84		+£2,018.75
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£38,041.68	(-62.5%)	+£542.40
Potential profits	£1,115.89		+£0.91
Yr 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£0.33		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£67.32		+£0
Yr 8 projected avg monthly profit	-£35.54	(-0.8%)	+£3.55
Total Dividends	£14,142.78		+£0
Total Interest	£0.58		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£20,366.43		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£387.00	(7.5%)	-£1.03
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	54%		-2%

My pension transfer came through so I bought some more shares.

First I added 345 shares of CAML:Central Asia Metals to my existing holding. They were bought at 289.6235p and cost £1,011.15. That takes my holding to 1,834 costing £4,365 and making £868 (20%) potential profit.

I now see why people buy more shares when the price goes up. It means the cost of the commission and spread is immediately subsumed by the potential profits, and although they dropped a little, they never go into the red. With this in mind I may start doubling my holding in existing profitable magic formula shares rather than keep buying new ones.

This did make me consider my virtual stop-loss rule though. The more a share gets into profit, the more I should allow it to drop without selling.  I don't want to be forced out of a share by a blip, so by extending that blip the more the price goes up, I reduce the risk of being stopped out but still prevent myself ending up with a loss.

So if the price increases by 11-25% I'll set the trailing stop-loss 10% below that. However, if it goes above 25%, then between there and 50% I'll let it drop 20% before selling. Between 51% and 75% I'll let it drop 30%, and between 75% and 100% I'll let it drop 40%. Anything above 100% I'll allow a 50% drop.Note that the drop is based on my original share price, not the current share price.

My other purchase was a bit of a stab in the dark based on my hopes that gold will continue to climb in price. I bought 51 shares in EDV:Endeavour Mining at 1942.548p costing £1,007.60. They are a gold miner with a gigantic pot of cash. Unfortunately they are already down by 4%, but it's early days.

Portfolio value climbed £542 mainly thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, but potential profit only climbed by 91p. Long term performance is now well below my 10% target so I could do with something spectacularly profitable to sell.

Slight rise in injection and cost, and slightly more of a rise in value for a change.

Almost back on the trend line, but we need to be well above it.

The trading account looks like this after week 341 overall and week 29 of year 7.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£20.24		-£0.07
Portfolio cost	£2,783.77		-£65.23
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,462.34	(-47.5%)	-£39.81
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 7 Dividends	£0.00		+£0
Year 7 Interests	£0.01		+£0
Year 7 Profit	-£137.01		-£65.28
Yr 7 projected avg monthly profit	-£20.47	(-8.8%)	-£9.37
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.01		+£0
Profit from sales	£89.59		-£65.28
Average monthly cash profit	£1.90	(0.8%)	-£0.84
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

I sold my SHG:Shanta Gold shares as they triggered my 15% stop-loss. The sale lost £65 which was 12.9%, so a little better than -15%.

I immediately re-invested in JLP:Jubilee Metals and included them in the share account purchase so the commission went with that part of the purchase and this one is commission free. I bought 3,469 shares at 12.53p costing £434.67. Let's hope these leap forwards to I can keep my main holding and sell these. The drop in price after I bought them meant the portfolio lost £39 in value.

This is becoming an odd shape now

Still below the trend line, a situation that must change soon if we're going to prevent it flattening.

So I've already spent most of my pension lump sum, or at least the amount I was willing to invest in shares. I only have the £2,000 left that I'm currently targeting at PBX:Probiotix, but the share price has remained more resilient than I expected. It has halved, but I'm counting on it dropping to about 5p before I buy. That will get me around 40,000 to add to my existing 100,000. I won't lump them together to average the price down, but instead keep the dividend shares at their original float price, as I'll hold those longer term and flog the rest if they manage to make a profit. I need something to sell for a big profit soon as my performance stats are doing pretty badly recently.