Week 417 Review - Optibiotix rises again to complete the best 3 weeks ever

Yet another amazing week for OPTI:Optibiotix with a 9.5p rise contributing virtually all of the gains, as it was a rubbish week across the rest of the portfolio. The best three weeks ever have all been in the last 3 weeks, with this week being 2nd only to the £32k rise 3 weeks ago. The deficit between cost and value narrowed by a whopping £22,336 to £60,891 and total portfolio value climbed to £125,694, which is £72k more than it was 3 weeks ago.

There were only 2 really bad performers this week, with both EDV:Endeavour Mining and III:3i Group falling 6%. Both were some of my best performing shares, so it's a bit of a concern. III is still 16% in profit despite the drop, but EDV is now at a loss of 13%. I'm tempted to switch my monthly investment to there next week after my last ANTO:Antofagasta purchase takes me to £1,000. My gold exposure isn't as much as I'd like it to be, but there are few quality shares available, and EDV is one of them.

POLY:Polymetal ceased trading on LSE so I checked out the price on AIX where it's currently suspended while the paperwork goes through, and happy to say the $3.76 on there was worth 295p when I updated the spreadsheet, which is 9% higher. It's academic because I can't sell them until they re-list on LSE, which I'm hoping they will do after selling their Russian assets. Meanwhile I'll enjoy the dividend.

Share of the Week for a 3rd week in a row is OPTI:Optibiotix which climbed 11% of purchase price in my 90p holding, but a spectacular 98% in my 9.55p holding to go 282% up. My potential profit from OPTI is now £11,868, but my more expensive holdings are still making a loss of £39,335 so still £27,467 down, but that's a lot more healthy than 3 weeks ago.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 1 of year 9.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£263.69		+£21.25
Portfolio cost	£87,854.54		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£56,064.97	(-36.2%)	+£10,347.06
Potential profits	£4,930.76		+£2,282.86
Yr 9 Dividends	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Interest	£0		+£0
Yr 9 Profit from sales	£0		+£0
Yr 9 proj avg monthly profit	-£16.26	(-0.3%)	-£16.26
Total Dividends	£11,911.43		+£0
Total Interest	£1.93		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,298.53		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£299.59	(6.0%)	-£0.76
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	48%		+0%

Cash went up £21 as I added my feeble £25 premium bond win, but lost £3.75 monthly charges.

Portfolio value up a magnificent £10k and potential profits up £2,282, which is all OPTI:Optibiotix, as my only other profitable share GAW:Games Workshop dropped 4%.

This is the first week of year 9 and unfortunate there was immediately a monthly charge to drag down the projected monthly profit to -£16. Long term profit from sales and dividends is still 6% but there's no sign of selling opportunities in the near future.

Almost up to the injection line, but not quite.

If we stay up here then the trend line will soon be flat

The SIPP looks like this after week 401 overall and week 37 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£384.37		+£233.34
Portfolio cost	£96,015.54		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£67,561.86	(-29.6%)	+£12,026.69
Potential profits	£7,344.90		+£3,248.54
Yr 8 Dividends	£239.37		+£0
Yr 8 Interest	£3.82		+£0
Yr 8 Profit from sales	-£9,597.85		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	-£1,107.94	(-20.3%)	+£28.77
Total Dividends	£14,382.15		+£0
Total Interest	£4.07		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£10,835.90		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£260.65	(4.8%)	-£0.83
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Compound performance	37%		+0%

I added £250 cash ready for my monthly investment, but paid monthly fees so cash only up £233. Portfolio value up a pleasing £12k and potential profits up £3,248, again all thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix as III:3i Group dropped 6% and ANTO:Antofagasta was flat.

Such a relief seeing this one above the injection line, probably due to a higher number of sensible shares in the portfolio.

Another trend line that will hopefully soon flatten out.

The trading account looks like this after week 367 overall and week 3 of year 8.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£273.24		+£0
Portfolio cost	£1,794.51		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£1,146.23	(-36.1%)	-£37.21
Potential profits	£0		+£0
Year 8 Dividends	£0		+£0
Year 8 Interest	£0		+£0
Year 8 Profit	£283.99		+£0
Yr 8 proj avg monthly profit	£410.20	(+274.3%)	-£205.10
Dividends	£60.10		+£0
Interest	£0.03		+£0
Profit from sales	-£646.70		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	-£6.93	(-4.6%)	+£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The curse of the trading account strikes again, with all shares dropping in value. I'm very, very bad at this.

Slight dip and a hell of a long way to go to turn this mess around. I'd like to think having a small amount in this account is a good lesson in what not to do in my other accounts where this performance would be much more damaging.

Just above the trend line, which given it still points upwards has to be a good thing.

So, after three absolutely amazing weeks what's going to happen next? Given OPTI:Optibiotix has spun out PBX:Probiotix at 21p, then that puts our current share price at the equivalent of 58p prior to the spin-off, which seems fair for where we're at. The main problem is PBX having dropped to 6p, so I would be happy for OPTI to trade in the 30's for a while if PBX could gain some lost ground.

Clearly any positive news on Sweetbiotix or the microbiome modulators could see a re-rate for OPTI, but the risk is new and returning investors get bored and we start drifting downwards again. I really hope we're past that and in more positive territory now, as getting the portfolio value back above £125k has boosted my morale considerably.

Meanwhile my main poor performer is now JLP:Jubilee Metals. I invested £14,335 when I thought the warrant selling had stopped, as I expected a re-rate from 12p to 20p. Instead I got a re-rate from 12p to 7p which is an absolute disaster. 136,582 shares is almost back to what I had last time I took a big position in JLP. At this level I'm very tempted to find a way to buy more, as the copper price is climbing and JLP are producing more and more every week. Work on their northern expansion in Zambia is about to get started, which will see a significant increase in the ability to produce copper, a metal that is going to come under increasing demand. I think I want to buy some more!