Week 536 Review - A great week demoted to a good week after Friday slump.

This was looking like a really great week until Friday, when everything went red. Fortunately the gains made at the start of the week were enough to keep most things in the black, so the deficit between cost and value narrowed by £2,044 to £145,588 and the deficit between injection and value narrowed to £65,063. Total portfolio value increased to £114,505.

Biggest loser was TLOU:Tlou Energy which dropped 10%, but that's just the normal weekly movement for this share.

IES:Invinity Energy dropped 5% for no obvious reason.

That's it for the bad news. OPTI:Optibiotix, PBX:Probiotix Health and JLP:Jubilee Metals were all flat, so it was a great performance by the rest of the portfolio to improve value by £2k.

GAW:Games Workshop went up 5% after analysts raised their guidance. These are now 73% up and making £746 potential profit.

KNOS:Kainos Group also went up 5% and are now 7% up and making £83 potential profit.

TRU:Trufin is one of my newest investments in the ISA, and using the new ISA magic formula. They climbed 9% and are 2% up and making £19 potential profit.

AFC:AFC Energy recovered 10% of their losses and are now down by 38%. There seemed no reason for the increase.

AMRQ:Amaroq went up 11% after positive exploration results and both my holdings are in profit, with the ISA holding up 10% and making £103 potential profit.

PAF:Pan African Resources zoomed up 12% and are now up by a spectacular 213% and making £5,072 potential profit.

AMP:Ampeak Energy went up 14% for no obvious reason, but are still down by 64%.

FDM:FDM Group went up 17% after a positive trading statement, but they are still 55% down after plummeting over the last few months. As I wouldn't have bought these under my new positive momentum rule, I won't be averaging down.

Share of the Week is FOUR:4imprint which climbed an impressive 18% after stating revenues would be ahead of consensus. Fortunately I considered the drop way over-done and have been buying every month and averaging down, so my holding is now only down by 8% rather than the 50% it dropped a few months ago.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 16 of year 11.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£90.85		-£4.06
Portfolio cost	£116,758.09		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£36,137.72	(-69.0%)	+£125.87
Potential profits	£171.83		+£77.88
Yr 11 Dividends	£25.32		+£0
Yr 11 Interest	£0.74		+£0
Yr 11 Profit from sales	£487.56		+£0
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit	£130.50	(1.8%)	-£9.87
Total Dividends	£12,513.39		+£0
Total Interest	£9.31		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£18,047.83		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£242.32	(3.3%)	-£0.48
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

As all my main ISA holdings stayed flat, there was only a small £125 rise in value. The best news was potential profits rising by £77 as AMRQ:Amaroq went back into profit and TRU:Trufin also went into profit. Unfortunately BOKU:Boku dropped 4% and erased a lot of the gains. They are only up by 5% now which is a bit concerning.

It's been flat for a while with my main holdings being unchanged for the last 2 weeks.

On the trend line now, can we get above it?

The SIPP looks like this after week 520 overall and week 52 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£1,027.28		-£454.90
Portfolio cost	£142,217.38		+£472.06
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£77,249.75	(-45.7%)	+£1,918.53
Potential profits	£7,828.49		+£957.84
Yr 10 Dividends	£2,103.55		+£20.58
Yr 10 Interest	£7.80		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£7,658.57		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£794.16	(10.3%)	-£14.12
Total Dividends	£18,220.20		+£20.58
Total Interest	£20.70		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,666.51		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£344.05	(4.5%)	-£0.52

It's the end of Year 10 and I managed 10.3% profit on sales and dividends, which is above my 10% target. Long term performance is way down at 4.5% so lots of work to do to get that up. Year 9 achieved 9.4% and long term performance then was also 4.5%, so it goes to show how difficult it is to get that figure up when the portfolio value keeps growing. The fact it took 10% just to stay still makes me wonder if I'll ever get it higher. 

The portfolio value at the end of Year 9 was £61,100 so we're up £16k. However portfolio cost was £119,221 and it's now £23k higher, so I'm actually £7k worse off in terms of value despite doing well on profits. Potential profits have increased from £4,874 to £7,828 which is only £3k.

Potential profits this week soared an amazing £957 thanks to many of my in-profit shares having big gains, and I had a £20 dividend from FDM:FDM Group.

I had my monthly investments this week. I had cancelled the BEZ:Beazley investment because they had caught up and I'd rather use it to average down.

My first investment was FOUR:4imprint where I bought 7 shares at 3313.5586p costing £234.61. By the end of the week they were at 3825p, which was nice. I have achieved my goal of averaging down the price and doubling my holdings, so I won't buy any more of these and will switch to SCT:Softcat next month, as that's dropped by 12% and it shouldn't have.

The other investment was in RAT:Rathbones where I bought 13 shares at 1806p costing £237.45. Unfortunately on Friday they dropped to 1784p. I'll buy these for another 2 months to get above £1,000.

I just can't seem to close that gap to the injection line.

Just sneaking above the trend line

The trend line appears to be catching up. I'm in danger of dipping below it soon.

It's taking all my willpower to resist top slicing a few more PAF:Pan African Resources. I know holding long term is a much better strategy, but I only need to sell 1,100 to liberate £1,000 and that would still leave me with 6,700. The problem is it goes ex-dividend in a few weeks and I want as big a dividend as possible, so will restrain myself.

The share price of III:3i Group plummeted this week, which justifies my feeling they had got ahead of themselves when I sold. I'll keep an eye on them to see if a buying opportunity presents, but they are still way above their NAV and still have 70% of their portfolio in one stock, so I'll avoid for now.

Both JLP:Jubilee Metals and OPTI:Optibiotix have been flat for 2 weeks now. JLP dropped but then recovered, whereas OPTI hasn't budged. I think potential investors are waiting for news. A Roan copper production report from JLP and an update on 2nd gen products from OPTI are both anticipated and will drive a movement, but in which direction?

Week 535 Review - Sold Ceres Power 2 days before news that would have doubled my profit.

What a depressing week. It started off reasonably well, but then got worse and worse until nearly everything was losing money, and I completely cocked up selling CWR:Ceres Power 2 days too soon. The deficit between cost and value widened by £1,783 to the worst ever £147,632. The deficit between injection and value widened to £67.121 and total portfolio value dropped to £112,448.

Worst performer was ASHM:Ashmore Group dropping 11%, but a big chunk of that was going ex-dividend.

Next worst was SCT:Softcat, but that also went ex-dividend this week and dropped 8%.

My newest share, purchased with proceeds from selling CWR:Ceres Power is TRU:Trufin, and while CWR shot upwards, TRU dropped 6% as soon as I bought them.

UKW:Greencoat UK Wind also slipped 6% as they remain out of favour.

YU.:Yu Group also dropped 6% this week for no obvious reason.

BOKU:Boku, IES:Invinity Energy, N91:Ninety One, RIO:Rio Tinto and SBRE:Sabre Insurance all dropped 5%.

The only share that rose by 5% or more is AMP:Ampeak Energy, climbing 9%. I'm very reluctant to award this dog Share of the Week, but I have worse performers so I suppose I should.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 15 of year 11.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£94.91		-£4.07
Portfolio cost	£116,758.09		+£549.79
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£36,011.85	(-69.2%)	-£836.36
Potential profits	£93.95		-£441.17
Yr 11 Dividends	£25.32		+£0
Yr 11 Interest	£0.74		+£0.02
Yr 11 Profit from sales	£487.56		+£549.46
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit	£140.37	(1.9%)	+£158.89
Total Dividends	£12,513.39		+£0
Total Interest	£9.31		+£0.02
Total Profit from sales	£18,047.83		+£549.46
Average monthly cash profit	£242.80	(3.3%)	+£3.97
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

As I mentioned earlier, I sold my CWR:Ceres Power shares. I thought my reasoning was sound - they had rocketed about 600% in a fairly short amount of time but are still years away from profit. How was I supposed to know they would announce a new deal with Weichai and soar even higher? I sold my 698 shares for 297.1506p making £549.46 (36%) profit, but if I held out for a few more days I could have sold them for 397p and made £1,246 (82%) profit. I sometimes wonder if I'm cursed.

I used half the proceeds of the sale to top up on JLP:Jubilee Metals and buy another 31,347 at 3.19p costing £1,004.97. They dropped in price just after I bought them. I now have 395,921 shares in my ISA costing £23,407.

The other half was used to buy a new magic formula share using my ISA magic formula for potential growth companies. I bought 972 shares in TRU:Trufin at 109p costing £1,064.48. They are an investment company that specialise in startup companies. They are 14th on my magic formula ranking with a high gross margin, excellent growth in both the last 12 months and over 5 years, but have a higher debt to equity than I'd like. They come 6th if I remove the debt measure.

Given I took a load of profit, the fact the portfolio value only fell an additional £287 is mainly due to OPTI:Optibiotix and JLP:Jubilee Metals both being flat. These days it's a happy week when they don't go down, especially as I anticipated some profit taking from JLP after rising 18% last week. I think that did happen, but in mid-week after the price had gone up some more, then dropped back to where it started (just after I bought some).

Potential profits were hammered as I lost everything against CWR, AMRQ:Amaroq went back to loss and BOKU:Boku dropped 5%.

At least I'm no longer showing negative profit for year 11, but the sale made virtually no difference to long term profits.

Pretty flat

Back below the trend line.

A very welcome tiny ripple in the downward slope.

The SIPP looks like this after week 519 overall and week 51 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£1,482.18		+£290.05
Portfolio cost	£141,745.32		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£74,859.16	(-47.2%)	-£946.75
Potential profits	£6,870.65		-£311.67
Yr 10 Dividends	£2,082.97		+£56.71
Yr 10 Interest	£7.80		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£7,658.57		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£808.28	(10.5%)	-£12.69
Total Dividends	£18,199.62		+£56.71
Total Interest	£20.70		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,666.51		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£344.57	(4.5%)	-£0.33

Cash went up as my monthly savings were added, but the shares will be bought next week. £946 drop in value as nearly everything fell, and most of the £311 drop in potential profits was due to N91:Ninety One and RIO:Rio Tinto dropping 5%. I had a £42 dividend from ALU:Alumasc and £14 from PSN:Persimmon. Looking good for year 10 performance when we reach the end of the year next week. It will be above my 10% target thanks to the magic formula.

Looks quite flat.

Looks less flat and below the trend line.

Still above the trend line, happy days.

So, I guess I should reflect on having my biggest ever deficit between cost and value. I need to keep reminding myself that the situation is due to a small number of shares I've held for a very long time and that are at their lowest valuations. The problem is they could go lower, and I also have several time bombs waiting to go off with companies that will almost certainly go bust.

KIBO:Kibo Energy is suspended and will never likely return, so my ISA will lose £2,635 from long term performance, and I don't have anything to sell to make that up. 

In the SIPP I have TRX:Tissue Regenix which is also suspended and in dire trouble, with dodgy accounting having been exposed and a massive cash crisis. When they de-list I will lose £3,437 from my SIPP performance. I do have shares I could sell to counter the drop in performance, but I would need to sell most of PAF:Pan African Resources to do that, and I really don't want to miss out on the massive dividend just before Christmas.

The only other thing that could save me in both my ISA and SIPP is a surge in JLP:Jubilee Metals. That could generate enough profit to counter the losses from both of these, but I had rather hoped to keep them long term in my ISA and use them to boost my SIPP profits rather than just protect them.

Week 534 Review - A positive week despite yet another drop for Optibiotix.

An unusual week, in that the ISA performed well but the SIPP performed badly. Lots of big drops and few gains, but the ISA benefitted from a big jump in JLP:Jubilee Metals which meant the deficit between cost and value narrowed by £1,387 to £145,849 and the deficit between injection and value reduced to £65,923. Total portfolio value increased to £113,395.

Worst performer was ALU:Alumasc Group which is still dropping after uninspiring interims last week. They fell another 8% this week, but my holding is still up 34% so I'm not starting to panic yet.

AFC:AFC Energy are drifting badly and fell 7% this week.

FDM:FDM Group also fell 7%, making me relieved I haven't bought more to try and average down. My holding is losing 64% now.

OPTI:Optibiotix fell 6% which is 0.5p and cost me around £1,000, so it would have been a much better week if they had stayed flat. They have now dropped below their IPO price. The only sliver of hope is that we were at this point in Summer 2023 and went up to 40p in a very short space of time. A repeat of that would be rather splendid. It could come on positive SweetBiotix news, but there's no sign of that at the moment. 

RAT:Rathbones dropped 6% for no obvious reason and I'm now down by 4% instead of being in profit. I don't mind as I'm only halfway through buying these, so ideally they'll drop some more before 12th November.

PAGE:Pagegroup, PSN:Persimmon and UKW:Greencoat UK Wind all fell 5% for no obvious reason, but sentiment is bad for all three at the moment. 

AMP:Ampeak Energy went up 10% but are still way off their recent price and down 71% altogether.

CWR:Ceres Power had another good week as they have been re-admitted into the FTSE 250 and climbed 11%.

IES:Invinity Energy also climbed 11% and me recent purchase is almost in profit.

Share of the Week is JLP:Jubilee Metals which went up a splendid 18%, but are still way, way down overall. Every time I speculate that this may be the turning point, they drop the week after, so I'm not going to do that. They were responsible for most of this week's gains though, and offset the drop in OPTI:Optibiotix.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 14 of year 11.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£98.98		+£0
Portfolio cost	£116,208.30		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission)	£36,298.42	(-68.8%)	+£1,462.13
Potential profits	£535.12		+£119.80
Yr 11 Dividends	£25.32		+£0
Yr 11 Interest	£0.72		+£0
Yr 11 Profit from sales	-£61.90		+£0
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit	-£18.52	(-0.3%)	+£1.43
Total Dividends	£12,513.39		+£0
Total Interest	£9.29		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£17,498.37		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£238.83	(3.3%)	-£0.45
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The big rises in JLP:Jubilee Metals and CWR:Ceres Power were responsible for most of the gains and value went up by £1,462. Potential profits soared as CWR are now up by 25%, and this made up for the small drops in both BOKU:Boku and AMRQ:Amaroq.

A tiny tick up.

Almost touching the trend line.

The SIPP looks like this after week 518 overall and week 50 of year 10.

			Weekly Change
Cash	£1,192.13		+£0
Portfolio cost	£141,745.32		+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)	£75,805.91	(-46.5%)	-£74.48
Potential profits	£7,182.32		-£316.87
Yr 10 Dividends	£2,026.26		+£0
Yr 10 Interest	£7.80		+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales	£7,658.57		+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit	£820.97	(10.7%)	-£16.76
Total Dividends	£18,142.91		+£0
Total Interest	£20.70		+£0
Total Profit from sales	£24,666.51		+£0
Average monthly cash profit	£344.90	(4.5%)	-£0.67

A very quiet week for the SIPP. Drops all over the portfolio wiped out the gains in JLP:Jubilee Metals so the value dropped by £74, and potential profits were hammered by £316 as many profitable shares dropped.

It's been fairly flat for a while.

Still below the trend line, which I don't normally expect for the SIPP.

Copper is still riding high but my copper miners are not. I'm hoping they will start catching up next week. I'm also due a few dividends next week which will boost my morale after none this week.