Saturday, 8 November 2025

Week 535 Review - Sold Ceres Power 2 days before news that would have doubled my profit.

What a depressing week. It started off reasonably well, but then got worse and worse until nearly everything was losing money, and I completely cocked up selling CWR:Ceres Power 2 days too soon. The deficit between cost and value widened by £1,783 to the worst ever £147,632. The deficit between injection and value widened to £67.121 and total portfolio value dropped to £112,448.

Worst performer was ASHM:Ashmore Group dropping 11%, but a big chunk of that was going ex-dividend.

Next worst was SCT:Softcat, but that also went ex-dividend this week and dropped 8%.

My newest share, purchased with proceeds from selling CWR:Ceres Power is TRU:Trufin, and while CWR shot upwards, TRU dropped 6% as soon as I bought them.

UKW:Greencoat UK Wind also slipped 6% as they remain out of favour.

YU.:Yu Group also dropped 6% this week for no obvious reason.

BOKU:Boku, IES:Invinity Energy, N91:Ninety One, RIO:Rio Tinto and SBRE:Sabre Insurance all dropped 5%.

The only share that rose by 5% or more is AMP:Ampeak Energy, climbing 9%. I'm very reluctant to award this dog Share of the Week, but I have worse performers so I suppose I should.

Here's the ISA and shares portfolio after week 15 of year 11.

Weekly Change
Cash£94.91    -£4.07
Portfolio cost£116,758.09+£549.79
Portfolio sell value
(bid price-commission)
£36,011.85(-69.2%)-£836.36
Potential profits£93.95-£441.17
Yr 11 Dividends£25.32
+£0
Yr 11 Interest£0.74            +£0.02
Yr 11 Profit from sales£487.56+£549.46
Yr 11 proj avg monthly profit£140.37(1.9%)+£158.89
Total Dividends£12,513.39+£0
Total Interest£9.31    +£0.02
Total Profit from sales£18,047.83+£549.46
Average monthly cash profit£242.880(3.3%)+£3.97
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends
- Fees / Months)

As I mentioned earlier, I sold my CWR:Ceres Power shares. I thought my reasoning was sound - they had rocketed about 600% in a fairly short amount of time but are still years away from profit. How was I supposed to know they would announce a new deal with Weichai and soar even higher? I sold my 698 shares for 297.1506p making £549.46 (36%) profit, but if I held out for a few more days I could have sold them for 397p and made £1,246 (82%) profit. I sometimes wonder if I'm cursed.

I used half the proceeds of the sale to top up on JLP:Jubilee Metals and buy another 31,347 at 3.19p costing £1,004.97. They dropped in price just after I bought them. I now have 395,921 shares in my ISA costing £23,407.

The other half was used to buy a new magic formula share using my ISA magic formula for potential growth companies. I bought 972 shares in TRU:Trufin at 109p costing £1,064.48. They are an investment company that specialise in startup companies. They are 14th on my magic formula ranking with a high gross margin, excellent growth in both the last 12 months and over 5 years, but have a higher debt to equity than I'd like. They come 6th if I remove the debt measure.

Given I took a load of profit, the fact the portfolio value only fell an additional £287 is mainly due to OPTI:Optibiotix and JLP:Jubilee Metals both being flat. These days it's a happy week when they don't go down, especially as I anticipated some profit taking from JLP after rising 18% last week. I think that did happen, but in mid-week after the price had gone up some more, then dropped back to where it started (just after I bought some).

Potential profits were hammered as I lost everything against CWR, AMRQ:Amaroq went back to loss and BOKU:Boku dropped 5%.

At least I'm no longer showing negative profit for year 11, but the sale made virtually no difference to long term profits.


Pretty flat


Back below the trend line.


A very welcome tiny ripple in the downward slope.

The SIPP looks like this after week 519 overall and week 51 of year 10.




Weekly Change
Cash£1,482.18
+£290.05
Portfolio cost£141,745.32
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£74,859.16(-47.2%)-£946.75
Potential profits£6,870.65
-£311.67
Yr 10 Dividends£2,082.97
+£56.71
Yr 10 Interest£7.80
+£0
Yr 10 Profit from sales£7,658.57
+£0
Yr 10 proj avg monthly profit£808.28(10.5%)-£12.69
Total Dividends£18,199.62
+£56.71
Total Interest£20.70
+£0
Total Profit from sales£24,666.51
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£344.57(4.5%)-£0.33

Cash went up as my monthly savings were added, but the shares will be bought next week. £946 drop in value as nearly everything fell, and most of the £311 drop in potential profits was due to N91:Ninety One and RIO:Rio Tinto dropping 5%. I had a £42 dividend from ALU:Alumasc and £14 from PSN:Persimmon. Looking good for year 10 performance when we reach the end of the year next week. It will be above my 10% target thanks to the magic formula.


Looks quite flat.


Looks less flat and below the trend line.


Still above the trend line, happy days.

So, I guess I should reflect on having my biggest ever deficit between cost and value. I need to keep reminding myself that the situation is due to a small number of shares I've held for a very long time and that are at their lowest valuations. The problem is they could go lower, and I also have several time bombs waiting to go off with companies that will almost certainly go bust.

KIBO:Kibo Energy is suspended and will never likely return, so my ISA will lose £2,635 from long term performance, and I don't have anything to sell to make that up. 

In the SIPP I have TRX:Tissue Regenix which is also suspended and in dire trouble, with dodgy accounting having been exposed and a massive cash crisis. When they de-list I will lose £3,437 from my SIPP performance. I do have shares I could sell to counter the drop in performance, but I would need to sell most of PAF:Pan African Resources to do that, and I really don't want to miss out on the massive dividend just before Christmas.

The only other thing that could save me in both my ISA and SIPP is a surge in JLP:Jubilee Metals. That could generate enough profit to counter the losses from both of these, but I had rather hoped to keep them long term in my ISA and use them to boost my SIPP profits rather than just protect them.

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