Friday 17 February 2017

Week 80 Review and Devastating Revelation

This week started really well and then plummeted spectacularly over the last two days. The combined portfolios were in profit Monday, loss Tuesday, profit Wednesday, small loss on Thursday and bigger loss Friday. In the end we are up by just £37.94 on last week, taking the paper deficit to £516.06. The combined portfolio cost sneaked past £59K last week, which should have garnered a "Woohoo!". I did change policy to only do a "Woohoo!" if the value went up another £1K but it's been so yo-yo I don't think I can keep up, so back to doing it on cost.

I've been re-reading The Naked Trader by Robbie Burns. It was such a valuable book when I first read it, and it's even more valuable the second time through, as I'm no longer phased by everything being new and can focus on learning. I decided to check out the website and there were loads of invitations to contact Robbie about his seminars and books. In a moment of enthusiasm I decided to send him an email and thank him for the help the book had been, both when starting out and again now. I decided to send him a link to this blog, as it was kind of inspired by his book.

He very generously replied to my email - but devastation - after the platitudes he went straight for the jugular, commenting that he thinks I'm more of a gambler than an investor due to the high risk nature of my portfolio. I was gob-smacked - nay shell-shocked. My beautiful portfolio that I love so much - how could he say that?

Then the devastating realisation hit me - he's absolutely right. I mean, I've just this week sold two FTSE250 companies to buy two AIM companies, one of which has never made a profit. Looking down my portfolio it's high risk company after high risk company. Oh cripes!

I've been pondering how this came about - and I think it's the excitement of the stories. I look at all my junior shares and they are intrepid explorers of new technology, or producing gold, platinum, and other shiny things.

It's a tricky one though, as I think my attitude has been soured towards the safer blue-chips by the devastation of Brexit. I've been holding some solid FTSE companies for over a year and how are they doing? BDEV:Barratt Developments down 25%, TW.:Taylor Wimpey down 14%, LOOK:Lookers down 30%, MSHL:Marshalls down 20%, VEC:Vectura down 15%. It's not a shining example of successful investment. However, had I bought these same shares on the post-Brexit dip, or topped these up, then maybe my attitude would be very different.

Anyway, the upshot is my risk profile is off the scale and I need to reign it in, so I need to start identifying some safer shares and gradually move out of the smaller AIM companies once the profits are good and get more of the profile into something defensive. A valuable, if rather humbling correspondence!

Back to this week's performance, and I'm overjoyed to say there were no double digit losers - huzzah!

TLOU:Tlou Energy had a second week's double digit climb, going up 14% and making £520 potential profit. This is where I'm really going to struggle putting all the things I just wrote into practice. In theory I should take the 50% profit on this share and put it into something safer - but I just can't - it's such an exciting project - dammit!! I guess I could compromise - keep some shares just so I can watch what happens, but bank my original investment and use it for something sensible - hmm - interesting notion!

Share of the Week was SLP:Sylvania Platinum which climbed 29% and is making potential profit of £274. How glad am I that I sold the holding from my trading account for £65 profit when 2 weeks later it would have made £250 - grr!!

Here's the share and ISA portfolios



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£42,118.09
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£38,439.37(-8.7%)+£185.47
Potential profits£2,646.27
+£323.96
Yr 2 Dividends£357.10
+£69.75
Yr 2 Profit from sales£2,917.65
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£503.32
-£7.45
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost14.3%
Total Dividends£1,025.03
+£69.75
Total Profit from sales£6,757.91
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£417.09
-£1.45
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost11.9%

Not too bad, with the value up £185 and paper profits up £323. The £69.75 dividend was from GVC:GVC Holdings and is hopefully the first of many. There - that's one good FTSE250 company in my portfolio! Average monthly performance stayed pretty flat thanks to the dividend.

It's looking promising - slowly but surely closing the gap.

The SIPP looks like this after week 64



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£15,997.53
+£77.62
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£19,278.81(+20.5%)-£147.37
Potential profits£3,867.30
+£108.82
Yr 2 Dividends£0
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales£72.90
+£72.90
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£10.66
+£10.66
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost0.1%
Total Dividends£413.19
+£0
Total Profit from sales£2,422.76
+£72.90
Average monthly cash profit£187.15
+£2.05
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost14.0%

A small rise in cost thanks to the sale of JLG:John Laing Group and ALM:Allied Minds and re-investment in OPTI:Optibiotix and IQE:IQE. Although potential profits are up, the portfolio is down thanks to deepening losses in OPTI:Optibiotix, TRX:Tissue Regenix and ARL:Atlantis Resources. The first sales of year 2 means we have some stats, but they're not very impressive! Average monthly profits overall sneak up a little.


That's not too dramatic a fall - I can live with that gap.

The trading portfolio looks like this after week 30



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£986.03
+£0
Cash£75.59
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£867.40(-12%)+£0
Potential profits£0
+£0
Dividends£0
0
Profit from sales£61.57
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£8.89
-£0.31
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost10.8%

Absolutely no change in either share. Dull, dull, dull, dull, dull.


Dull.

That's it for week 80. Next week may see JLP:Jubilee Platinum announce production of platinum for the first time. A momentous day that I've been awaiting for so long. Not sure if any other news is expected, but we shall see...

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