Friday 24 February 2017

Week 81 Review - Lots of Sales

This week was a heady mix of sells and consolidation while all around me the portfolio tanked. It's going to be a complicated week to analyse, as I banked a lot of profit, so the paper loss widened dramatically. This in combination with nearly all the shares decreasing in value meant the portfolio ended up £1,743.99 worse off than last week at a paper loss of £2,260.05. Given I banked £994.98 profit, that means the portfolio declined by £749.01.

There was only one double-digit changer this week and it was a loss. SLP:Sylvania Platinum fell victim to profit taking and declined by 12%.

I'll cover the sales and purchases in the accounts for each portfolio.

The combined ISA and share account portfolio looks like this



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£42,680.95
+£562.86
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£37,873.30(-11.3%)-£1,128.93
Potential profits£2,139.47
-£506.80
Yr 2 Dividends£357.10
0
Yr 2 Profit from sales£3,409.68
492.03
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£559.49
+£56.17
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost15.7%
Total Dividends£1,025.03
0
Total Profit from sales£7,249.94
492.03
Average monthly cash profit£438.26
+£21.17
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost12.3%

I've already mentioned the sale of PAF:Pan African Resources and the plan to purchase OPTI:Optibiotix with a fill or kill order. Well as usual that order failed. I decided to be canny - I was in no hurry to buy, and if the share price goes up I'll just look for another share. I set a limit order at 70p when the purchase price was 72p. The share price dropped but not enough to fill the order. Normally I panic at this point and cancel the limit order, just buying at the market price the next day. This time I toughed it out, and much to my joy I was rewarded the next day with a purchase at 69.8p. Bargain! The share price promptly dropped even further.

I looked again at what's about to come along for this company, and I can't believe the price keeps falling. The regularity of the sells suggests that the institutional investors that supported Optibiotix since start-up are continuing to off-load their shares in order to fund other start-ups. While this continues, the share price will keep within this 60p-80p band.

I decided to get some more. I sold my ISA holding of TRX:Tissue Regenix as I still have a load in my pension and they were making £71.32 (12.3%) profit. As part of my new de-risking policy I sold just under half of my holding in TLOU:Tlou Energy for a £328.55 (63%) profit leaving me with 10,000 shares. This liberated £1,479.30 to buy another 2,139 shares in OPTI:Optibiotix at 68.6p. It means my ISA now contains 8,608 shares costing a weighted average of 78.69p which is a significant improvement given my biggest purchase was at 90p. The price hasn't dropped further, with the offer price 69p but the bid price is 67p so I'm losing £1,060 on my ISA and £371.25 in my SIPP, but amazingly making £1.79 profit in my share account!

OPTI:Optibiotix now constitutes 18.1% of my portfolio, so I had better be right about its prospects. I think I am. With Skinbiotix about to list in its own right, a new cholesterol product about to launch, the Go Figure range about to launch in 200 stores of what's rumoured to be Boots, partnership deals with six multi-nationals one of which has been recently confirmed is Tata Chemicals, and a great heap of patents and IP in the micro-biome sphere that's taking off as a major step forward in human health. Oh yes - and a natural sweetener that acts as fibre in the body that's due to launch later this year. I can't look at all that and not be very, very excited. This news item alone shows what's on the horizon: New research presented at Probiota 2017 demonstrates cholesterol-reducing microbiome modulation

Back to the stats. Potential profits only dropped by the amount of profit I made on the sales, so the other £600 was deepening losses. Mainly KIBO:Kibo Mining and OPTI:Optibiotix, but with lots and lots of little losses all adding up. The average monthly profit gets a great boost of £21.17 which is good over an 18 month period.

Not at all good to see the red line go up but the green line go down - and it was all going so well! Hopefully just a blip that's about to be reversed.

The SIPP looks like this after week 65



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£16,525.19
+£527.66
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£19,243.46(+16.4%)563.01
Potential profits£3,493.13
-£374.17
Yr 2 Dividends£0
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales£575.85
502.95
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit£109.24
+£98.58
Yr 2 Avg annual % of current portfolio cost7.9%
Total Dividends£413.19
+£0
Total Profit from sales£2,925.71
502.95
Average monthly cash profit£217.80
+£30.65
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost15.8%

I did some more de-risking, and sold BMN:Bushveld Minerals for a £502.95 (65.5%) profit. I think they could do really well, but having seen so many penny mining shares tank after being in profit, I decided the risk was too great and there was somewhere much less risky I wanted to increase my holding.

The potential profits decreased less than the profit I made because JLP:Jubilee Platinum climbed 5%. That could be a lot more if they announce maiden platinum production next week! The sell value of the portfolio got a bit hammered though, with small losses in most of the shares. Average monthly profits went up a nice £30.65 keeping performance way above my 10% target.

I used the £1,274.62 liberated by the sale of BMN:Bushveld Minerals to buy another 2,676 shares of IQE:IQE at 47.1849. This was fractionally below the 47.3099p I paid last week and takes my weighted average in the SIPP to 47.25p. Unfortunately they have slipped a little lower to 46.5p bid price so I'm losing £77, but the ISA shares are making potential profit of £1,077 so I'm still a thousand quid up. IQE:IQE now comprises 7.7% of my portfolio and I'd like to get it up to 10%, as like OPTI:Optibiotix it has multiple potential revenue streams and many multi-national partners in an area that's about to go ballistic. This presentation from a year ago really tells the story: PI World IQE Presentation


Oh no! The red line is trying to catch up to the green - shoo!

The trading account looks like this after week 31



Weekly Change
Portfolio cost£986.03
+£0
Cash£75.59
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission)£815.36(-17.3%)-£52.04
Potential profits£0
+£0
Dividends£0
0
Profit from sales£61.57
+£0
Average monthly cash profit£8.61
-£0.28
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)
Avg annual % of current portfolio cost10.5%

This account just isn't working out as I had hoped. Both shares dropped in value and my projected income stands at a spectacular £8.61 a month. That won't even pay the window cleaner!


Last week I moaned that the graph was dull. This isn't dull, but I'd actually prefer dull.

A week to forget in terms of share performance, but a week of great satisfaction to make nearly £1,000 profit and increase the holding in my most favourite shares. If OPTI:Optibiotix could have the jolly good manners to announce something spectacular next week, then that would be very much appreciated.

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