Friday, 1 September 2017

Week 108 Review - New record high

The week started off really badly and I thought a big chunk of recent gains was gone, but the last 2 days really turned around and things are looking much better after today. As I've sold some shares and am holding the cash until I can transfer it to my SIPP, I decided to make a subtle change to the overall portfolio value and include cash. Most of the time this is negligible, but not this week.

Combined portfolio value compared to cost has increased by £1,976 this week and a grand total of £77,361 is a new high. The buffer between profit and loss is now a massive £7,073 so I'm hopeful I can remain in the black for a while.

Only one double-digit loser this week and it's CWR:Ceres Power Holdings which dropped 12%. This is still 41% up and making £753 potential profit so I can tolerate the odd dip.

Although OPTI:Optibiotix only climbed 4% this week to 73p bid price, I have such a vast sum invested that it generated most of the profits. All three accounts are now in profit, with the share account up 9%, ISA up 3% and SIPP up 12% following the huge purchase at sub 60p a few weeks ago. Total paper profit is already £2,275 making it my 2nd best performing share just a month after being well entrenched as Nemesis Share. Stress has turned to absolute excitement now the brakes are off.

Nemesis Share is now LOOK:Lookers, down 39% after the Brexit crash and losing £801. I really can't believe this will continue trading on a P/E ratio of 5.4 though - it's a FTSE250 company for goodness sake!

Making up for last week, AMYT:Amryt Pharma did well and climbed 8% on the lead up to interim results on Monday. These are up by 15% and making £924 potential profit.

Share of the Week was a bit of a surprise. WRES:W Resources climbed 11% in my ISA and 16% in my SIPP. Is it possible they might actually produce something at some point? I had almost written these off, but maybe there is some hope. I think the main reason for the climb was that the remaining funding required has been secured through debt rather than dilution - and with 4,842,640,000 shares in circulation it couldn't get much more dilute. I'm down by 50% in my ISA and 33% in my SIPP, so still stuck with them for a long while yet. Total invested was £633 so a bit more than I usually punt on a minuscule miner, but that did buy me 98,735 shares which in those days felt amazing.




Biggest ever gap, but it will close up a bit when I buy some shares next week with the cash from yesterday's sale.
Here's the ISA and share account performance



Weekly Change
Cash £2,447.09
+£2,405.53
Portfolio cost £44,426.84
-£2,369.41
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £48,382.14 (+8.9%) +£1,064.58
Potential profits £9,361.61
+£751.44
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £585.38
+£36.11
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £585.35 (15.8%) -£142.96
Total Dividends £1,179.05
+£0
Total Profit from sales £7,297.85
+£36.11
Average monthly cash profit £335.90 (9.1%) -£1.67
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

So the sale of BDEV:Barratt Developments and KIBO:Kibo Mining from my share account liberated £2,405 in cash and made a huge £36 profit. As a result of not re-investing, the portfolio cost has dipped by £2,369 and this will never re-appear on this balance sheet as £2,400 will be transferred to my SIPP on Monday. Taking into account the sale, the rest of the portfolio climbed by £1,064, most of which was due to OPTI:Optibiotix and AMYT:Amryt Pharma. IQE:IQE stayed pretty flat this week. Year 3 performance continues to tumble after the week 1 sale, and overall performance only drops by £1.67 a month thanks to this week's sale.




The graph has never done that before! Long may this gap remain.

The SIPP looks like this after week 92



Weekly Change
Cash £20.57
+£0
Portfolio cost £22,828.63
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £26,101.80 (14.3%) +£911.57
Potential profits £4,281.95
+£833.56
Yr 2 Dividends £294.96
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £6,575.33
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £737.11 (38.7%) -£18.90
Total Dividends £708.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £8,925.19
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £448.24 (23.6%) -£4.92
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

OPTI:Optibiotix and CAML:Central Asia Metals caused the £833 rise in potential profit, but LGEN:Legal & General dropped 2% and dented that a little. TRX:Tissue Regenix and WRES:W Resources both climbed a bit to cut the losses and contribute to a rise in value of £911. Monthly performance is way ahead of target. Things will hot up here next week when I inject the £2,400 and in a few months the nice tax man will deliver another £600 as a result.




It's all so encouraging - should I be worried it won't last?

The trading account looks utterly dire after week 58



Weekly Change
Cash £79.63
+£0
Portfolio cost £486.05
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £329.99 (-32.1%) +£0
Potential profits £0
+£0
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£22.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.62 (-4.0%) +£0.03
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Oh the unbearable tedium...




Move along please - there's nothing to see here.

That's another week out of the way, and I'm most excited that I have a big pile of cash to invest next week. Will IQE:IQE tank after their results? Will I be able to grab a bargain? Will the shorters keep increasing their bets and make a downward push inevitable? I can but hope - even though it will wipe loads off my ISA holding, it will only be for a few weeks. In fact, after their finals it only dipped for a day, so there's no hanging around if I want a bargain.

I was so relieved I didn't set a stop loss last time around else I would have been chucked out and never got back in without decreasing the number of shares. I don't trust the market makers not to batter the share price on the slightest negativity in an attempt to trigger a load of stops and get their hands on thousands of shares just before the price bounces back. Maybe I'm being over-cynical, but I've seen enough suspicious activity over the last 2 years to be wary. If that does happen then the shorters are likely to take that as a signal to close their positions and buy all those shares causing a massive re-rate upwards.

I may have to pick a value I'm happy to pay and set a buy limit at that level so if the price becomes available while I'm at work I won't miss out. I think 110p would be a steal, and that was the last resistance point before the recent rise. Maybe 115p would be safer so I can buy on the way down as it may not stop at 110p for long enough.

On the other hand, the share price could absolutely rocket and the shorters panic and take their losses. If that happens I'm doomed and will never buy in time. I'll be happy that my ISA profits have soared and buy something else. At the moment I'm leaning towards £1,400 more CAML:Central Asia Metals which is the best run company in my portfolio and hasn't increased enough given the copper price rise. I'd also get £1,000 KAT:Katoro Mining as they are ahead of schedule and stupidly cheap given the expertise of their CEO and ties to KIBO:Kibo Mining. I was hoping for a load of free KAT:Katoro Mining shares as a result of my KIBO:Kibo Mining holding, but if they do arrive it will be a long way down the line, so may as well get a few now before they re-rate.

Lots to look forward to next week...

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