Sunday, 17 September 2017

Week 110 Review - Reversal of fortunes

This has been an incredibly volatile week. There were some great gains which will provide long term stability to the portfolio, but big losses in two of my main holdings resulted in a drop in overall portfolio value of £3,204. The combined value drops to £76,066 and the buffer between profit and loss narrows to £5,788. Hard to believe it was only 6 trading days ago that the portfolio value topped £80,000.

Worst performer by a long way was IQE:IQE. The recent bargain purchase in my SIPP had the 14% profits wiped out to a 2% loss so maybe not such a bargain after all. My ISA holding was 406% up but that got smashed by 70% to 336%. It's really difficult to see why the launch of the new iPhone should have had such a negative effect. It changes nothing. No doubt the shorters will be rubbing their hands in glee. There were almost 14m shares traded on Friday so there's no doubt the volume is there, but the iPhone launch must have triggered a lot of profit taking. I'm hoping things will settle around the 150p level rather than the 100p level though.

Next worst performer was even more baffling. OPTI:Optibiotix dropped 11% despite news of a groundbreaking deal with Bened Biomedical. Not only does it give them the rights to distribute Optiobiotix strains in South east Asia, if gives Optibiotix the right to market their strains focussed on neuropsychological, allergic, immunological, metabolic and aging-related disorders. This effectively adds a whole raft of potential new products to the portfolio. How can that result in an 11% drop in share price?

As if to match this, SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics also dropped 11% for no apparent reason, although to be fair there was no apparent reson for last week's rise either.

To add to the gloom of the big losses above, KIBO:Kibo Mining dropped 7% and ARL:Atlantis Resources seems to be in free-fall, dropping 6% on news that there are not going to be any further government subsidies to support the MeyGen project. It would be nice to see some figures that suggest we don't need it.

To counter all that misery, there were some really good gains this week, but not enough to prevent the financial losses from the fall in larger holdings.

CWR:Ceres Power Holdings continues a very slow and gradual rise, climbing another 6% to go 50% up on purchase price. At some point soon there will be news of an actual contract, which could see a significant re-tate if with a multi-national.

WRES:W Resources also continues an unusually steady climb for a small-cap miner, up another 7% this is now only 24% down and may lose the red colouring for an amber shade in the next few weeks.

RED:RedT Energy is also waking a little after a truly dreadful run recently. A climb on 7% means these are now 31% down. Only news of actual orders will cause this to recover.

MTFB:Motif Bio recovered all the losses since I bought them and climbed 11% to only be 1% down. News of orphan drug status really helped this at the end of the week, so I'm hoping with phase 3 trials complete there will be good news in the next few months.

JLP:Jubilee Platinum is also doing a gradual creep upwards. These gained 12% and are now only 1% down following an upbeat webcast and a feeling that news is imminent on both new deals and a way forward for Tjate.

Share of the Week was a massive help in preventing much bigger losses, as AMYT:Amryt Pharma is one of my largest holdings and climbed by 16% to go 33% up.This has been on a positive move ever since the interims revealed how much money Lojuxta is bringing in and the potential for short term growth enabling this to make a significant contribution to completing the phase 3 trials of AP101. There was also excitement around the presentation given in New York on Tuesday 12th that may have brought Amryt to the attention of American investors and contributed to the rise.

So quite a lot happened!




Ouch! Maybe it had got a wee bit ahead of itself. I just hope next week isn't as bad as this one for the big two.

Here's the ISA and share account performance



Weekly Change
Cash £43.34
+£0
Portfolio cost £44,426.84
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £48,547.20 (+9.3%) -£1,265.04
Potential profits £9,602.28
-£1,057.66
Yr 3 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 3 Profit from sales £585.38
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £387.55 (10.5%) -£77.51
Total Dividends £1,179.05
+£0
Total Profit from sales £7,297.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £329.64 (8.9%) -£3.03
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The drop in value was less than last week's gain, so I'm still up over the last 2 weeks. The risies in AMYT:Amryt Pharma really helped reduce the impact of the losses in IQE:IQE and OPTI:Optibiotix. Unfortunately OPTI:Optibiotix has plummeted to a £770 loss in these accounts so was responsible for both reduced profit and deepening loss. Year 3 profits are coming down to more normal figures now we're 6 weeks into the year. Soon they'll drop below average and I'll need to contemplate selling something, but I'm reluctant to when the paper profits are doing so well.




There's still a more healthy gap than there has been for 2 years so I won't panic just yet.

The SIPP looks like this after week 94



Weekly Change
Cash £20.92
+£0
Portfolio cost £25,218.51
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £27,066.24 (7.3%) -£1,928.54
Potential profits £2,923.25
-£1,857.91
Yr 2 Dividends £294.96
+£0
Yr 2 Profit from sales £6,575.33
+£0
Yr 2 Average monthly cash profit £701.00 (33.4%) -£17.09
Total Dividends £708.15
+£0
Total Profit from sales £8,925.19
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £438.25 (20.9%) -£4.71
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Absolute carnage. The SIPP only has 7 stocks, and CAML:Central Asia Metals is still suspended. The only one that increased in value this week was WRES:W Resources and that's such a tiny holding it had no impact on the declines in OPTI:Optibiotix and IQE:IQE which are bigger holdings than all the other non-suspended shares. Average profit is still twice target so no plans on selling anything.




It has been a spectacular rise over the last few weeks, but I wasn't counting on such a spectacular reversal.

I'd better go through the motions of documenting the trading account after week 60



Weekly Change
Cash £79.63
+£0
Portfolio cost £486.05
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £304.97 (-37.3%) -£11.12
Potential profits £0
+£0
Dividends £1.15
+£0
Profit from sales -£22.85
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.57 (-3.9%) +£0.02
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The slow and relentless creep downwards continues. I'm seriously contemplating selling this at a loss and learning my lesson - the whole point of this account was to buy for short term gain, but I've treated it like an investment. To do this properly I need tighter stop losses to bail at the first sign of a dip and move on to something else. I've utterly failed to differentiate between this account and my other account - in fact I'd go as far as saying I've done more trading in my SIPP than this account. I just can't help feeling REDS:RedstoneConnect has been over sold and will recover quite rapidly on one scrap of news. That's not how trading is meant to work though! If I sold now, I would have £383 to put on something more volatile that's in a dip. I just need to find a share that's clearly being played. Unfortunately the most obvious is OPTI:Optibiotix, but I daren't trade on that as the trading account is actually part of my main share account and I don't know which of my holding would be sold, putting at risk the free shares that may be allocated to my long standing holding. I reckon GVC:GVC Holdings is being played too, but at 850p a share it's too much for my tiny £380.




Hopeless

No results expected next week. There has been a development in the AFPO:African Potash saga. African Agronomix Limited have completed their due diligence on the proposed handover of Lac Dinga and the deadline for other conditions being met was extended to 15th September which has now passed. I think getting some revenue for this resource is my only chance of seeing some form of return on my investment. In fact, the ideal scenario would be African Agronomix buying out AFPO:African Potash entirely, which at the moment they'd be able to do very cheap! Meanwhile I wait with interest to see if anything can be salvaged from this disaster.

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