Sunday, 2 December 2018

Week 173 Review - Best ever week!

At last, after a pretty miserable run when everything seemed to be going wrong, along comes the biggest ever rise in portfolio value. The recovery in OPTI:Optibiotix has been rapid and huge, with this being the main driver of the improvement as the rest of the portfolio struggles. The value increased by £20,620 and zoomed back into profit, with value exceeding cost by £6,292 and total portfolio value up to £101,604. I would be celebrating getting back above £100K, but am conscious that I've recently injected £8,000 into my SIPP so I should be aiming for £108K, but it still feels great.

Thanks to my holiday I have a period of 4 weeks where I didn't follow changes in shares. The big movers therefore reflect the whole of November and I'll only mention changes above 10%.

IQE:IQE had a nightmare 4 weeks, dropping 18% on news that there will be a material effect on profits from fewer VSELs being ordered. Thank goodness I sold most of my shares when I did, as this has been slaughtered. I still believe we're in for a big bounce upwards when the shorts close, but it's difficult to see when that will be now. I'm tempted to buy in at these prices as it will significantly lower my average price per share.

CAML:Central Asia Metals is still suffering from the American trade dispute with China I think. I'm hoping for a recovery next week now that seems to be mellowing. My recent purchase actually increased my average price quite a bit so that didn't help performance, and there was a 16% drop.

TEK:Tekcapital has been a disaster in my trading account, and will teach me not to take any notice of bulletin board tips! Another big drop of 11% sees this 66% down on my purchase price.

LLOY:Lloyds Bank is one of my new shares in the SIPP having decided that the time is right to buy prior to the removal of accounting for PPI mis-selling. When this hits next October there should be a massive increase in profits and therefore dividend payouts. Unfortunately Brexit is putting on the frighteners and there was a 10% drop over the last 4 weeks. I probably ought to get some more in that case.

RED:RedT Energy also fell 10% and has now lost all the benefits that came from their big contract announcement. Only proven revenues will get this back into profit now, and it has a 47% drop to recover from since I bought them.

Although MAIS:Maistro only fell 9% I'll still give it a mention. The drop was due to a placing and announcement of an open offer at 1p a share. Given I only own 400, and given my purchase price was 24p, I decided to apply for 4,000 in the open offer costing £40. I only have to make up £109 to be able to sell these for a profit - and believe me, I will sell them as soon as I can - so all it takes is an irrational spike after the open offer and I could bail out. If not, I've just flushed £40 down the toilet!

Lots of bad news for the best ever week! Here's the good news.

SAE:Simec Atlantis Energy are finally starting to pick up as a few positive announcements have been made about potential projects and financing of the Uskmouth power station conversion. They climbed 11% but are still 69% down on my purchase price.

WRES:W Resources are getting closer to starting production and that's showing in the share price, with a climb of 12% meaning these are only 32% down now. I will be selling these as soon as in profit as I don't trust the CEO one little bit. There are so many shares in issue it's never going to pay a decent dividend even if they do make a profit.

N4P:N4 Pharma went up 18% after an announcement that the Nuvec vaccine delivery system is progressing well and has passed some of the tests. Everything depends on this one thing now, and I don't really want to be invested here as I bought these thinking they were diversified. The re-factoring business is now shut down and I don't know if they will ever recover from being 59% down on my purchase price.

Share of the Week by absolutely miles was OPTI:Optibiotix which climbed 19% to go 38% up altogether and with my recent purchase of another £4,000 worth of shares at 76p the current bid price of 92p has made an instant and healthy paper profit. My recent purchase means I now have 79,877 shares costing £53,416.53 at a weighted average price of 67p and making paper profit of £20,034.46. The recent purchase means that every 1p increase in share price is worth £798.77. Drat! Just a few more and I could have got it up to a nice round £800. That's the figure I'll be using in my head as I watch the price action.




Boing!

Here's the change in the ISA and share portfolios over the last 4 weeks



Weekly Change
Cash £33.80
+£7.81
Portfolio cost £56,958.55
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £59,727.91 (4.9%) +£6,515.11
Potential profits £12,884.81
+£6,577.48
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£7.81
Yr 4 Profit from sales £814.53
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £219.22 (4.6%) -£66.10
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£7.81
Total Profit from sales £19,511.65
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £517.22 (10.9%) -£12.13
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The extra cash was from the dividends I mentioned last week and all the increased profit is OPTI:Optibiotix, with portfolio value not increasing as much due to drops elsewhere, but only affected by £60 so no massive drop. Long term performance is still over 10% but will be below target in a few weeks time.




Back into the black - lets hope we can stay there now.

The SIPP looks like this after ending year 3 and starting year 4 in week 157


Weekly Change
Cash £153.72
-£10.02
Portfolio cost £35,825.45
+£7,931.69
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £40,089.62 (11.9%) +£3,367.54
Potential profits £8,088.55
+£3,725.06
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £0 (0%) +£0
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.03
+£0
Total Profit from sales £10,544.92
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £320.95 (10.8%) -£8.04
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Cash reduced because of the monthly charge. Pension transfer explains the extra £7,931 cost and OPTI:Optibiotix increased profits by £3,725 but the drops elsewhere robbed around £350 of that with the portfolio value only climbing by £3,367. I've added a new performance line for interest as I had 3p a few weeks ago and intend to keep more cash in this portfolio so anticipate more interest payments in the future.

The big increase in portfolio cost has thumped my percentage performance figure, dropping from 14% to 10.8%. Rather annoying, but will ensure I focus on both achieving realised profits as well as paper profits.




Encouraging, as this is meant to be my lower risk portfolio and the natural state is to be in profit.

The trading account looks like this after week 123



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£4.13
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,580.70 (-31.9%) -£212.71
Potential profits £0
-£10.56
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£4.13
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £44.33 (22.9%) -£10.63
Dividends £18.48
+£4.13
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.61 (-0.8%) +£0.21
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Everything still tumbling and TAP:Taptica profits all vanished, so this account continues to be a disaster. The fact I've had shares long enough to get £18 dividends tells you everything you need to know about my trading skills.




Dreadful.

That's it - hoping some hints about Christmas surprises at OPTI:Optibiotix will come true as there's a momentum building that could be transformational. Certainly the awarding of the kite mark and medical device status for Slimbiome two days before a report announced type 2 diabetes can be reversed using a diet of meal replacement shakes could be epic.

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