As is often the case, the worst performer was last week's Share of the Week OPTI:Optibiotix, and when that performs badly my portfolio gets hammered. An 8% drop this week still leaves me well in the black, and I suspect was down to profit taking following the 17% rise last week.
CEY:Centamin had a flat week in my ISA despite the increase in price of gold, but in my SIPP it had a dreadful week and dropped 7%, largely due to issuing an RNS stating production would be 2% below forecast about one hour after I'd bought £1,000 worth. With a P/E ratio of about 7 and massive amounts of cash, I still see this as a great company to invest in, as production will increase next year and the shares are just stupidly cheap.
TAP:Taptica fell badly last week and dropped another 6% this week. I thought about topping up, but decided it's just too risky.
KIBO:Kibo Energy is the first of the big risers, with a 5% increase this week. I'm really hoping this is the start of a recovery, as this is now one of my worst performing shares.
MTFB:Motif Bio has started to pick up, and may see continued buying at these levels with the FDA decision on Iclaprim not far away now. It would be nice for these to get back into profit, and I never envisaged this sort of drop given they have a product that has passed Phase III trials.
TEK:Tekcapital had an unexpected boost, climbing 8%. However, this remains 62% down and I suspect stands little chance of getting back into profit. I just need to decide at what point I take my loss.
Share of the Week was a big surprise. IKA:Ilika shot up 9% but is still 66% down. I guess there's a vague possibility someone knows something. There's certainly been nothing interesting in an RNS.
The gap narrows precariously.
Here's the ISA and shares portfolios
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £46.66 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £56,971.94 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £58,489.24 | (2.7%) | -£2,257.20 |
| Potential profits | £11,872.89 | -£2,529.80 | |
| Yr 4 Dividends | £60.50 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Profit from sales | £814.53 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit | £176.69 | (3.7%) | -£8.84 |
| Total Dividends | £1,298.83 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £19,511.65 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £505.44 | (10.6%) | -£2.87 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
Potential profits dropped by £2,529 and OPTI:Optibiotix is the only share in profit, so no problem working out what happened there. The overall portfolio value fell by around £250 less than that, so everything else was up a tiny bit. Still no rush to sell anything as I'm comfortably over the long term 10% performance target.
At least it's the right side of the line
The SIPP looks like this after week 161
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £138.92 | +£0.28 | |
| Portfolio cost | £37,825.18 | +£1,999.73 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £41,354.82 | (9.3%) | -£1,527.41 |
| Potential profits | £7,599.97 | -£1,525.90 | |
| Yr 4 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Interest | £0.01 | +£0.01 | |
| Yr 4 Profit from sales | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit | -£13.06 | (-0.4%) | +£3.28 |
| Total Dividends | £1,342.25 | +£0 | |
| Total Interest | £0.04 | +£0.01 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £10,544.92 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £312.57 | (9.9%) | -£1.95 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
My £2,000 transfer arrived and I spent it, so cost went up and the leftover pennies went into cash, along with the 1p interest payment. Potential profits got hammered and the rest of the portfolio stayed flat. The injection of cash means the long term performance dropped below 10% and I'll need to start thinking about selling something to stay on target. Sometimes I wonder if my target is too demanding - as it's based on an ever increasing portfolio cost, then it's going to be very difficult to keep above 10%, but I guess targets ought to be a little bit hard to meet.
My £2,000 went on two companies, both existing holdings. Firstly I bought 4,499 shares in SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics at 13.175p costing £999.94. My other holding in the ISA cost me 20p and I thought that was cheap at the time, but there's been some unease lately after some poor PR and a worry that a placing is ahoy. However, there's still loads of cash in the bank and initial results of human trials are imminent. Given the stellar lab results I'm reasonably confident in the human trials, and based on the OPTI:Optibiotix model assume discussions are already advanced with major industry partners so that once the trials are complete, contracts can be signed quite quickly. With that in mind, the share price has multiple opportunities to spike. Given the pain I've endured watching OPTI:Optibiotix spike and plummet while holding throughout, I'll be shamelessly trading my SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics shares as I've been a good boy with OPTI:Optibiotix but feel naughty with these.
The rest of the cash went on CEY:Centamin as the main reason for transferring the money out of my work pension was Legal & General withdrawing the gold fund, and I want a percentage of my pension in gold. I bought 893 shares at 110.62p costing £999.79. About an hour after my purchase, and RNS was issued stating they were 2% below forecast revenue and the price dropped to 108p and I was miffed. The purchase takes my SIPP gold shares to 9% of that portfolio cost, although I'd like to increase it to 25% over the next few months.
The green line is at a much shallower incline to the red one, but the gap is still healthy.
The trading account looks like this after week 127
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £18.80 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £2,321.29 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £1,346.58 | (-42%) | +£7.20 |
| Potential profits | £0 | +£0 | |
| Year 3 Dividends | £17.33 | +£0 | |
| Year 3 Profit | £177.06 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit | £36.62 | (18.9%) | -£1.67 |
| Dividends | £18.48 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | -£64.29 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | -£1.56 | (-0.8%) | +£0.02 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
A £7 rise is much more healthy than the recent misery, but certainly won't turn around the fortunes of this basket case.
Is there any hope? Maybe just a fool's hope...
CAML:Central Asia Metals is a superb company that's been unreasonably hammered, so I have no problem anticipating a major turnaround in the New Year when it's clear just how much cash they are generating. IQE:IQE will also turn around the share price as the shorters will give in at some point, and 5G infrastructure will make them loads of cash, especially when the new foundry comes on-line.
LION:Lionsgold will either come out of suspension and have a spike on excitement, or will never re-list and I'll lose the lot. TAP:Taptica have been wrongly hammered for the resignation of their CEO and are taking advantage by buying back shares. It's high risk, but I think there's potential to make a lot of profit buying at these prices - but could be wrong. TEK:Tekcapital was a big mistake. They'll come to nothing and waste away all my investment. I should have sold out immediately and would have only lost £100 but now I stand to lose £229 I can't bring myself to do it. Probably explains why I'm rubbish at trading!
Looking back at this time last year my combined portfolios were worth £74,900. Today they are worth £101,395. Granted that includes the recent addition of £10,000 from my pension, but even without that it's £15,000 up on last year, which smashes my 10% target, so although the final week was a bit lame, the final position is very healthy.
2019 is going to be shit or bust for some of my shares. JLP:Jubilee Metals is my biggest losing share, down by £2,246. They absolutely have to show that the profits from their existing projects are resulting in positive cash flow, and get Kabwe producing. If that happens then there's a reasonable chance of a turnaround. Next biggest loser is KIBO:Kibo Energy, down by £1,963. It needs to get a signed power purchase agreement else all hope is lost. I need to get out of this one anyway as they have moved from mining to coal fired power stations and with global warming we shouldn't be building new ones, so I shouldn't be investing in them. Solar, wind and tidal with vanadium redux storage is the way forward. Almost as bad is TLOU:Tlou Energy which really needs to win the tender for providing power to Botswana, and if they don't then I fear the company will be sold for its reserves at a steal, and I'll end up capitalising my losses. They are gas, which isn't as bad as coal, but I really shouldn't be investing in it.
In the SIPP TRX:Tissue Regenix is losing £1,248 and needs to show it's not just a mechanism for directors to earn a big wage, and IQE:IQE is losing £1,211 but I'm confident will bounce back when the shorts close.
Meanwhile MTFB:Motif Bio will soon know if the FDA have approved their NDA, and all eyes will be on OPTI:Optibiotix as deal after deal crosses the line and the revenues keep heaping up, the SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics dividend is dished out, Sweetbiotix launches, ProBiotix is spun out and listed, and the share price reacts in the only way it can.
My New Years resolution is to get back into VRS:Versarian. I hoped the price would dip below 100p but it just keeps holding on. I don't want another OPTI:Optibiotix where I'm losing money for 3 years, so I'm determined to wait, but I may miss the boat. Let's see what 2019 brings...
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