CEY:Centamin published their results and there were no surprises. However, they stuck to their dividend policy which is to give back to shareholders what they have in free cash flow. That still works out about 4.7% at the current share price, but was a 75% drop on last year. This completely freaked out the market and the price crashed. In my SIPP it fell 41% of my original purchase price, and in my ISA it fell 35%.
I was so shocked at this drop, and so convinced it would bounce straight back, that I sold my holding in LLOY:Lloyds Bank for a small £11.85 (0.7%) loss in order to buy more CEY:Centamin at what I thought was a bargain price of 98p. As usual my timing was terrible as LLOY:Lloyds went on a rally. albeit only one that would have made me £20 profit, and CEY:Centamin dropped further to 91p so I immediately lost around 10%. I did however increase my holding by 1015 shares at 97.287p costing £999.41.
I guess it wasn't just the dividend cut that affected the share price, as PAF:Pan African Resources was my next worst performer, dropping 12% as gold prices slipped slightly. At least this is still 25% up and a rare splash of green in my portfolio.
OPTI:Optibiotix is being traded mercilessly and after great gains last week dipped 7p this week which is 11% and responsible for most of this week's drop. Members of the board were in India this week, so hopefully there will be news of that trip next week and a bounce back.
RED:RedT Energy just keeps slipping and will continue to do so until a hefty contract is signed. They need to sell a hell of a lot of machines to make a profit. This fell another 7% and is now 66% down.
My newest share VRS:Versarien dropped another 7% so my timing was spectacularly wrong. This is now 13% down after 2 weeks. I'm hoping the bounce will come soon - either that or wait a month as I'll finally get my £2,000 pension transfer in April.
TAP:Taptica keeps threatening to recover, but then doesn't. It fell another 6% this week and is 48% down.
SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics peaked at 20p and is now subject to the pressures of traders and is on the way down again. This week's 5% drop makes my holding 14% under water. Relieved I managed to sell my SIPP holding for a reasonable profit at 20p, despite the subsequent drop in VRS:Versarien which I bought with the proceeds.
Although mostly doom and gloom this week, there were some good news stories. IKA:Ilika is really motoring now, and climbed another 7%. It's now only 18% down so looking like an unexpected recovery could be on the cards.
TLOU:Tlou Energy is also having a good run as fullproduction is not far away. They just need someone to buy the gas. This week it climbed 8% but is still 32% down.
IQE:IQE has been under sustained shorting attack and there is a possibility these are quietly closing, as for the second week in a row there has been a decent rise. It went up 8% in my SIPP and 10% in my trading account, so hopefully the growth will continue.
Share of the Week goes to CWR:Ceres Power which went up 9% and is now in profit. It's only £6 up, but that's more than most of my portfolio. I'm relieved that the recent dip seems to have turned around as I was worried about catching a falling knife, but my target buy-in price was 150p so I think sometimes the falling knife can be an opportunity if you don't mind losing out if it slips further. A big power generation contract could see this really move. There are exciting development with global partners, so if just one of those deals comes through it will be very exciting.
A very harsh and sudden plunge into the red.
Massively below the trend line now. The optimism of last week has been crushed.
The ISA and share portfolios now look like this
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £28.03 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £57,246.22 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £53,667.02 | (-6.3%) | -£3,828.57 |
| Potential profits | £7,831.37 | -£3,610.32 | |
| Yr 4 Dividends | £60.50 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Profit from sales | £1,077.60 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit | £161.14 | (3.4%) | -£5.56 |
| Total Dividends | £1,298.83 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £19,774.72 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £487.02 | (10.2%) | -£2.63 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
CEY:Centamin accounted for about £100 of the drop in profits and £450 of the deepening loss, with OPTI:Optibiotix contributing the vast majority of the losses. Not much change elsewhere as even the bigger movers are fairly small holdings.
Back in more familiar territory
As with the combined chart, well below the trend line.
The SIPP looks like this after week 170
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £107.50 | -£11.73 | |
| Portfolio cost | £38,324.77 | -£0.11 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £40,772.27 | (6.4%) | -£2,873.02 |
| Potential profits | £6,581.50 | -£2,589.67 | |
| Yr 4 Dividends | £0 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Interest | £0.04 | +£0 | |
| Yr 4 Profit from sales | £484.30 | -£11.85 | |
| Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit | £140.25 | (4.4%) | -£14.72 |
| Total Dividends | £1,342.25 | +£0 | |
| Total Interest | £0.07 | +£0 | |
| Total Profit from sales | £11,029.22 | -£11.85 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | £307.37 | (9.6%) | -£2.12 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
Profits took a small hit of £11 from selling LLOY:Lloyds Bank at a loss but I'm hoping CEY:Centamin will recover quickly whereas LLOY:Lloyds Bank may have a mini collapse when Brexit goes tits up. Cash dropped a little as I topped up the proceeds of the sell to buy £1,000 worth of CEY:Centamin. Very little impact on overall performance from taking the small loss.
I guess the buffer is no smaller than it has been over the last few weeks on the dips.
I was so happy to be above the trend line last week. Now a lot less happy.
Here's the trading account after week 136
| Weekly Change | |||
| Cash | £18.80 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio cost | £2,321.29 | +£0 | |
| Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) | £1,564.91 | (-32.6%) | +£45.42 |
| Potential profits | £4.87 | +£4.87 | |
| Year 3 Dividends | £17.33 | +£0 | |
| Year 3 Profit | £177.06 | +£0 | |
| Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit | £26.32 | (13.6%) | -£0.85 |
| Dividends | £18.48 | +£0 | |
| Profit from sales | -£64.29 | +£0 | |
| Average monthly cash profit | -£1.46 | (-0.8%) | +£0.01 |
| (Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months) |
Gosh - it's another great week for the trading account, with a £45 increase thanks to the great rise from IQE:IQE and a steady week for CAML:Central Asia Metals going back into profit. Will it be sustained this time - will I ever get the long term performance figure above £0?
Wow - that's a really long, sustained rise. I'm starting to like this account!
Then I look at this chart and reality bites. There's a very big gap to make up before it breaks even. Above the trend line though - but it's a shockingly awful trend line.
So a miserable week following on from quite a few miserable weeks, with bad fortune seeming to be targeting any share I own. I'm getting to the stage where I dread opening an RNS for fear of yet more bad news.
I also have to start looking at some of my train wreck shares, because at some point they will cease to exist and I'll need to account for them.
BLOC:Block Commodities (formerly AFPO:African Potash) are suspended on NEX and I doubt will ever re-appear before the whole thing goes bust. They are worthless anyway, so I'll have a loss of £714 to account for when they do.
TRK:Torotrak have been liquidated but the shares are still in my account. Fortunately I bought them when I didn't know what I was doing so only lost £117, but it's still accounted for as a paper loss.
I'm not sure what's happening with LION:Lionsgold. They are suspended but the fact they are showing no sign whatsoever of re-listing worries me rather a lot. The good news is that they were filler for my trading account so the most I can lose is £345.
I'm most worried about my shares that are not dead in the water, but which are looking very precarious. Biggest risk is KIBO:Kibo Energy which is currently losing £2,343 and which has the potential to lose £2,635. They spent years working on their power project in Tanzania and to be told to get stuffed by TANESCO. Where the hell are they going to get the funding to continue their other projects after sending so much on a dead duck? I'm now really worried about this one.
My next biggest loser is JLP:Jubilee Metals which has gone very quiet lately. We used to get monthly production updates but now we get nothing, and they keep sinking money into new projects before making anything from the ones they have already started. It's not surprising my holding is down 46%. That amounts to a £2,141 paper loss, but has the potential to be a £4,639 loss if it goes belly up. I'm not as worried about this one, but I am still worried. I have become a lot more risk averse since experiencing the dangers of small mining companies.
I'm even more reluctant to invest in small pharma companies since the MTFB:Motif Bio disaster. That's now down 78% and losing £1,971. They may be able to keep going long enough to market Iclaprim, but it's just as likely they'll go bust or be bought out for practically nothing and force my paper losses to be realised.
I must stop feeling morose and sorry for myself and get some lunch!
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