Saturday, 23 February 2019

Week 185 Review - Optibiotix soars again - will it last this time?

It's been a volatile week, but thanks to a great showing from OPTI:Optibiotix the portfolio climbed by £4,002 despite me taking £500 profit. The buffer between value and cost has recovered to £4,767 and the overall value is back above £100K at £102,826

Worst performer yet again was MTFB:Motif Bio dropping 10% and now losing £1,987 (79%). This is going to be a drag on the performance for a long time. I just hope they can negotiate a way to show there's no liver toxicity quickly before they run out of cash. A placing at this price will cause a lot of dilution.

CAML:Central Asia Metals lost most of last week's gains, dropping 7%. The general direction is still upwards though, so confidence remains high.

TLOU:Tlou Energy will likely continue to slip until they get some sort of Power Purchase Agreement signed. They dropped 7% this week and are 40% down. Let's hope they don't suffer the same problems as KIBO:Kibo Energy, as African governments all seem to be putting barriers in the way of these companies, which doesn't make sense if they want to gain energy security. I'm at the point where I don't really want to be investing in fossil fuels on environmental grounds, although I don't feel strongly enough to take a massive loss. I won't be a long term holder here though.

I took my opportunity to buy back into VRS:Versarien when the price finally went under 100p. I was so relieved, but also horrified as it continued to drop. If I'd waited until the end of the day I could have bought for 86p instead of the 98.9p I paid. However, under 100p was my target price so I'm still happy, but the dip, spread and commission mean I'm already down 6%.

TAP:Taptica are still struggling. I'm surprised, as I expected a fairly rapid recovery after their CEO resigned. They dropped another 5% this week. Good job I only bought £500 worth in my trading account.

IQE:IQE had a great week, climbing 7% in my SIPP and 9% of purchase price in my trading account. They are still 40% down but may have some upward momentum now.

OPTI:Optibiotix climbed 7p which is 9% and worth £5,600. Given the portfolio only climbed by £4,000 it shows how much I lost elsewhere this week. The news about GRAS certification for LP-LDL is absolutely massive. All those American dairy contracts have been sitting around waiting for this. Now they can get on with signing them, although sounds like everyone is out in India talking about Slimbiome to partners there. A few Indian contracts closely followed by American contracts, closely followed by retail launch of Go Figure, closely followed by Sweetbiotix deals could see the share price finally break out from this range it's been stuck in for the last three months.

Share of the Week goes to CEY:Centamin which has been very slowly climbing. My ISA holding climbed 10% this week and went 5% (£74) into profit. My SIPP holding was bought much cheaper, so that went up 13% of cost price and is now up by 30% and making paper profit of £598. This is a keeper though, as I'm convinced it will re-rate permanently and the dividend will be massive as a percentage of the price I paid for the shares.




Phew - back in the right direction.




Still below the trendline so need another push next week.

The ISA and share portfolios look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £28.03
+£0
Portfolio cost £57,246.22
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £57,495.59 (0.4%) +£2,687.53
Potential profits £11,441.69
+£3,110.52
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,077.60
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £166.70 (3.5%) -£5.95
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,774.72
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £489.65 (10.3%) -£2.67
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Great week for increasing profits, but some big losses, particularly MTFB:Motif Bio meant about £420 of those were eaten by deepening losses. Still above the target 10% long term average profit, so looking good.




Back in the black - but only just




Still well below the trendline so must do better.

Here's the SIPP after week 169



Weekly Change
Cash £119.23
-£3.53
Portfolio cost £38,324.88
+£499.70
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £43,645.29 (13.9%) +£1,299.97
Potential profits £9,171.17
+£1,250.87
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.04
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £496.15
+£496.15
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £154.97 (4.9%) +£166.25
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.07
+£0
Total Profit from sales £11,041.07
+£496.15
Average monthly cash profit £309.49 (9.7%) +£10.96
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

The key event was the sale of SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics and re-investment in VRS:Versarien. That earned £496 profit and I added a few quid from cash reserves to increase the portfolio cost by £499. Potential profits went up, but not as much as they might have done if CAML:Central Asia Metals hadn't dropped so much. The banked profits didn't get me back up to 10% target. I suspect at some point the risk/reward status of PAF:Pan African Resources will see me sell at least some of those to get back above target performance, but 9.7% is still pretty good.




Zoom!




Back above the trendline. This has always been a very will behaved account.

The trading account looks like this after week 135



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,519.49 (-34.5%) +£15.42
Potential profits £0
-£12.99
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £27.17 (14%) -£0.91
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.47 (-0.8%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Although CAML:Central Asia Metals dropped back to loss and wiped out the potential profits, IQE:IQE did well enough to counter that and leave the portfolio slightly up on the week.




Slowly does it.




Above the trendline at last - but it's still bloody awful.

That's it from a week of exciting news for OPTI:Optibiotix to counter last week's terrible news, and jumping jigs of joy to be able to call myself a VRS:Versarien investor again. So much excitement to come with that one.

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