Saturday, 13 April 2019

Week 192 Review - Back to the misery

Well that didn't last long. Half last week's gains vanished as the portfolio dropped by £4,308 going back below £100K to £97,475 and back into the red by £2,769. Bugger!

Worst performer was SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics which dropped 12% following the results of their human trials. It appears the market doesn't understand what the results mean. They were as good as could possibly be expected if not better, and what the potential big corporate partners would have been waiting for before signing a deal and producing their own formulations. I'd buy some more if I didn't have so much invested in OPTI:Optibiotix that I already own a huge amount, although likely to materialise as a cash dividend rather than shares.

CAML:Central Asia Metals was the next biggest loser, dropping 9% which was very expensive given the size of my holding. This was because the dividend was 2p less than last year, but it's still 8p and still yielding 5.7% which is pretty incredible. My dividend will be £252 after an interim dividend of £146 and take my total for this year to £398. That's a pretty good return and actually 6.7% given my shares were bought for 33% less than they cost now. This is definitely a company to gradually build a bigger stake in, and with the ex-date of 25th April, I may add some more if TND:Tandem Group go into profit.

OPTI:Optibiotix put the seal of doom on the week by dropping 8%. That 5p is worth over £4,000 so contributed most of the losses. I can't believe that in a week we won regulatory approval for Slimbiome in India and signed a new deal for Slimbiome Medical in Bulgaria, we lost 8%. For most companies only a profit warning would do something like that!

On the plus side JLP:Jubilee Metals rose another 8% and is giving me some hope that a turnaround is on the cards. It is still down 26% and losing £1,200 but that's half the losses of a few weeks ago. Fingers crossed for this one. I'll be taking some profit fairly early if it does recover, as I think £4,600 was too much to risk on this company. I'll gamble with a smaller amount, but would rather not gamble with quite so much. You never know though, if it looks like they work out how to produce sustainable profit, maybe I'll be convinced to stay.

TND:Tandem Group had a great week, with analysts raising targets and investors realising that a PE ratio of 5 is way too low. It briefly got into profit if you don't include the commission and I was tempted to sell, but this positive sentiment could run a bit longer yet and the price moves very quickly as it's such an illiquid share.

WRES:W Resources seems to be sneaking up, with a 12% increase as maiden production gets closer. These could yet rally! I'm not looking for a huge profit from them. I see them as mega high risk so will not hold on for much more than 40% which would be 10% for each year I've held them.

Share of the Week is CWR:Ceres Power which climbed 15% and is now 18% up and making £189 potential profit. There's a heck of a lot about to take off with this one, especially as China seem to be leaning more towards hydrogen as a fuel. That would create huge demand for their fuel cells, and with in increasing number of high margin licence deals, regular profit may not be far away.




Back into the red.




Back below the almost-flat trend line.

The ISA and share accounts look like this



Weekly Change
Cash £26.97
+£0
Portfolio cost £57,274.78
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £53,825.30 (-6%) -£1,930.13
Potential profits £7,002.70
-£2,368.54
Yr 4 Dividends £60.50
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £1,077.60
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £133.38 (2.8%) -£3.81
Total Dividends £1,298.83
+£0
Total Profit from sales £19,774.72
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £471.63 (9.9%) -£2.47
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Great big drop in profits thanks to OPTI:Optibiotix, but JLP:Jubilee Metals and CWR:Ceres Power helped reduce the losses so the drop in value is around £400 less than the drop in potential profits. Still need to sell something to get back above 10%. Come on TND:Tandem - you can do it!




Nearly 10 weeks in the red now




The trend line is exactly along the zero axis. That's quite impressive! I think it means I've stood still for a year.

The SIPP looks like this after week 176


Weekly Change
Cash £78.67
+£0.01
Portfolio cost £40,524.05
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £42,042.79 (3.7%) -£2,370.45
Potential profits £6,163.25
-£2,012.52
Yr 4 Dividends £0
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.07
+£0.01
Yr 4 Profit from sales £484.30
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £91.76 (2.7%) -£4.83
Total Dividends £1,342.25
+£0
Total Interest £0.09
+£0.01
Total Profit from sales £11,029.22
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £296.16 (8.8%) -£4.83
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Apart from the 1p interest, the opposite happened compared to the other accounts, with losses deepening further than profits dropping. It's a big drop with OPTI:Optibiotix and CAML:Central Asia Metals combined reducing the profits and drops in many other holdings deepening losses.




From a position of comfort, suddenly we're in peril of crossing the line.




Back below the trend line and back to dragging it flat.

The trading account looks like this after week 142



Weekly Change
Cash £18.80
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,482.84 (-36.1%) -£8.02
Potential profits £0
-£25.17
Year 3 Dividends £17.33
+£0
Year 3 Profit £177.06
+£0
Yr 3 Average monthly cash profit £22.17 (11.5%) -£0.60
Dividends £18.48
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£1.40 (-0.7%) +£0.01
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees / Months)

Hardly any change, but it's downwards and all the potential profits are gone. At least I can hold out for the CAML:Central Asia Metals dividend. Says a lot about my failure as a trader that I've had both interim and final dividends on this one.




The nice gentle rise doesn't look like a rise any more.




Still above the trend line so can't complain, even if it is a rubbish trend line.

I don't think anything interesting is due to happen this week. My finger will be hovering over the sell button for PAF:Pan African Resources, TND:Tandem Group and some JLP:Jubilee Metals, but I doubt very much if any of them will get to a price where I will sell.

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