Saturday, 16 November 2019

Week 223 Review - One of the worst weeks ever

Just as things looked like they were turning around and gently recovering, this week hit with a bang. The portfolio collapsed by £10,217. £9,450 of this was down to a 9p drop in OPTI:Optibiotix, but nearly everything dropped, including all my biggest holdings. The deficit between cost and value increased to £30,444 and the overall value dropped to £74,712.

The biggest loser was OPTI:Optibiotix and I don't know what justifies a 9p drop. I'm particularly annoyed that the "bargain" 5,000 shares I bought last week for 62.3p I could now buy for 54p. Dreadful timing yet again. I didn't for a moment believe we would go back into the 50's. A 14% drop means my holdings are down by 21% and losing around £14.5K. I'm not happy!

JLP:Jubilee Metals did exactly what they always do. Absolutely brilliant results saw the price heading towards 5p and so a few hours later they anounced a discounted placing at 4p so the share price promptly plummeted. I was in profit for a couple of hours and now I'm 7% down on last week and back to an 8% loss.The only glimmer of comfort is that the results were very good, but my concern is the contempt in which they regard shareholders when they do placing after placing and never give anything back.

The prospects at JLP are so good that I would invest much more, but it's the lack of trust that will prevent me putting anything else in, as if you don't trust your management team then how can you put your money in their hands? I may be thinking very differently if income trebles and they decide to start paying a dividend. I appreciate money is required within the company to fuel growth, but at some point the shareholders need to see some return.

IQE:IQE had a 2nd bad week on the run, dropping 6% in my ISA just as it looked like they may get into the black. All their customers are reporting big profit increases, which should mean IQE will too. Despite this, a further 2% of shares have been lent out to shorters, so it's under renewed attack. I just hope they decide to close their shorts for Christmas!

SBTX:SkinBioTherapeutics is doing exactly what I thought it would do and dropping off from the 20p resistance price. It fell another 5% this week so I'm glad I banked my profits. Unfortunately like a prize idiot I used the proceeds to buy more OPTI:Optibiotix instead of saving it for when these drop. My only hope is if my pension transfer in 2 weeks time could coincide with these getting down to my target price.

No shares climbed by 5% or more for the 2nd week in a row, which is in itself very disturbing. Share of the Week is TLOU:Tlou Energy which climbed 4% but is still 41% down and losing £1,113. I remain optimistic that these will come good, as their CEO knows what he's doing and has a proven track record.




Un-be-flippin-lievable!




What did I say about dragging the trend line flat - Pah!

Here's the performance, or lack of, for the ISA and share portfolios



Weekly Change
Cash £19.49
+£0
Portfolio cost £57,768.95
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price-commission) £39,661.86 (-31.3%) -£5,579.17
Potential profits £0
+£0
Yr 5 Dividends £0.63
+£0
Yr 5 Profit from sales £-167.28
+£0
Yr 5 Average monthly cash profit -£51.39 (-1.1%) +£3.68
Total Dividends £1,342.93
+£0
Total Profit from sales £20,224.13
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £415.15 (8.6%) -£1.87
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection 13.4%
-0.1%
Compound performance 57%
+0%

I had to turn the sell value a deeper shade of red as it dropped by 10%. Massive decline in value and just generally very depressing.




Almost back to the injection line.




Back below the trend line which just keeps getting steeper.

The SIPP looks like this after week 207



Weekly Change
Cash £103.28
+£0
Portfolio cost £44,895.31
+£0
Portfolio sell value
(bid price - commission)
£33,571.67 (-25.2%) -£4,581.64
Potential profits £362.97
-£120.00
Yr 4 Dividends £556.99
+£0
Yr 4 Interest £0.10
+£0
Yr 4 Profit from sales £2,004.18
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £203.92 (5.5%) -£4.08
Total Dividends £1,899.24
+£0
Total Interest £0.13
+£0
Total Profit from sales £12,549.10
+£0
Average monthly cash profit £293.18 (7.8%) -£1.43
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
/ Months)
Performance/Injection 12.7%
-0.1%
Compound performance 50%
+0%

Just as depressing as the ISA, with a 10% drop in value and an additional £120 drop in paper profits. All rather sad.




A bigger buffer to the injection amount here.




The drop has gone further below the trend line than the ISA has.

Here's the trading account after week 173



Weekly Change
Cash £48.24
+£0
Portfolio cost £2,321.29
+£0
Portfolio sell value (bid price - commission) £1,307.81 (-43.7%) -£56.36
Potential profits £0
+£0
Year 4 Dividends £13.20
+£0
Year 4 Profit £0
+£0
Yr 4 Average monthly cash profit £3.36 (1.7%) -£0.21
Dividends £47.92
+£0
Profit from sales -£64.29
+£0
Average monthly cash profit -£0.41 (-0.2%) +£0
(Sold stocks profit + Dividends - Fees
 / Months)
Performance/Injection -0.2%
+0%
Compound performance -1%
+0%

Everything lost money this week, but fortunately not very much. My recent good run came to an abrupt end.






Back on the trend line but not below it. Unfortunately, although the line is relatively flat, it has sunk a long way below zero.

I thought I'd try and cheer myself up by looking at some of may sells over the past few years and see whether I was right to sell.

OCDO:Ocado was my first sell, and I sold them based on the teaching of Robbie Burns as they had dropped by more than 15%. I bought them for 371p and sold them for 320 making a £92 loss. They are now selling for 1,152p and I would have made a £963 (200%) profit if I had kept them. Hmm - wasn't this exercise meant to cheer me up?

PTY:Parity Group was one of my earliest purchases as we used them at work for aptitude testing. I bought them for 7.5p and sold them for 8.31p making £7 (2.2%) profit because I wanted to get rid of them without taking a loss. They now sell for 8.75p so I could have made an extra £18 which isn't a lot.

ISG:ISG used to kit out offices. I say used to as they went bust. I bought at 168.8p and sold at 235p making £173 (32.6%) profit before they had a chance to go under. That makes me feel less sad!

REDD:Redde I bought for 158.51p and sold for 177.02p making £20 (4.8%) profit. They now sell for 106.4p so I would be sat on a £152 (38%) loss if I'd kept them. Phew!

STL:Stilo have taken themselves off the market so I would have lost my £837 investment, but I bought at 4.13p and sold at 5.1p so made £170 (20%) profit and dodged a bullet.

TFW:Thorpe Lighting are doing pretty well and selling for 272p. I bought mine for 194.76p but sold at 212.46p making £64 (6.4%) profit instead of the £362 (37%) I would be on now. They are a good, solid, well managed company and I regret selling. I'm seriously tempted to get back into these as they have fallen recently but revenues are still up.

BA.:BAE Systems I sold as I decided they were not very ethical. I sold mine at 498.975p after buying for 451.9p which was a £33 (5.9%) profit on a small investment. They now sell for 573p which would have got me £129 (21%) profit.

HLMA:Halma was my first "expensive" share and probably the one I regret selling the most, as it was a proper investment in a sound, well managed business. I sold mine for 871.4p after buying at 767.78p so made £74 (9.9%) profit. They now sell for 1,878.5p and I would have made £1,081 (138%) profit. Oh woe is me - what an idiot!!

GBG:GB Group was another investment driven by our use of their products at work. I only bought £500 worth for 246.55p and sold for 265.01p making £13 (2.5%) profit. The current sell price is 655p so if I had held on to them I would have £793 (157%) profit. Aaargh!

SHB:Shaftesbury are a property investment company in London. I sold them when the property market looked like it would take a dive. I bought mine at 887.96p and sold for 930.6p making £62 (3.5%) profit. If I had kept them they are selling at 934.5p and I'd have made nothing except dividends in the 4 years.

That's 10 of my earlier holdings and the first things I sold. In those days my portfolio was very small, so the relatively small profits seemed a lot. Now I realise that I sold out of quality companies to chase potential big growth companies and instead ended up with a load of toxic shares. I may review the next 10 if I get time next week.

I need to return to my first principles, as it appears I was a much better share picker when I first started than I am now, because I had strict rules and chose solid companies. If I had stuck to those rules I would have a very healthy, dividend-paying portfolio now instead of a massively volatile and potentially toxic portfolio.

Will I learn a lesson from today's review? We'll find out in 2 weeks time when I spend my £2K pension transfer...

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